NEW YORK — As of 4:32 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets have wrapped the regular session, and Palantir Technologies Inc. stock is trading in post-close conditions. [1]
Palantir shares were last seen around $188.71, down about $5.43 (‑2.79%) on the day, after swinging between roughly $188.51 and $196.18.
The pullback came during a quiet, post‑Christmas session in which major U.S. indexes finished only slightly lower on thin holiday volume, snapping a short winning streak but keeping benchmarks near record territory. [2]
The market backdrop is calm, but Palantir remains volatile
While Palantir slipped, the broader tape was comparatively steady. Large-cap proxies for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 ended little changed on the day—an important reminder that today’s move was more stock‑specific than marketwide.
That said, year‑end trading often magnifies individual moves. With fewer participants active and many desks running holiday staffing, liquidity can be patchy—and highly valued momentum names like Palantir can react sharply to even modest waves of profit‑taking. [3]
Why Palantir stock fell today
No single headline dominated Palantir’s day, but the market’s current debate around PLTR is clear: exceptional growth and government momentum vs. an expensive valuation that leaves little room for disappointment.
Investor’s Business Daily described Palantir as sliding in the holiday session after a strong run, highlighting how quickly the stock can dip back below widely watched technical areas during low-volume trading. [4]
This “two steps forward, one step back” pattern has appeared repeatedly in 2025 whenever the market pivots from AI enthusiasm to valuation discipline—especially in stocks that have already delivered outsized gains.
The biggest recent catalyst: the Navy’s ShipOS program with Palantir
One of the most important fundamentals supporting the bull case remains Palantir’s expanding footprint in defense and federal modernization programs—most notably the U.S. Navy’s Shipbuilding Operating System, Ship OS (ShipOS) initiative.
According to a U.S. Navy press release, the Navy is investing up to $448 million in AI and autonomy to accelerate shipbuilding, leveraging Palantir’s software to bring modern data practices into a complex, data-heavy industrial environment. [5]
Business Insider reported that early pilots tied to Ship OS showed dramatic time savings, including reducing submarine schedule planning from 160 hours to under 10 minutes at a major submarine yard, and cutting certain material review timelines from weeks to under an hour at another shipyard. [6]
Why it matters for Palantir investors:
- Scale and durability: ShipOS is positioned as a multi‑year modernization push across shipbuilders, shipyards, and suppliers—not a one‑off software license. [7]
- Platform validation: It showcases Palantir’s “AI + operations” pitch in a mission‑critical setting where buyers pay for measurable improvements. [8]
- Narrative reinforcement: Defense wins continue to feed the market’s view of Palantir as a foundational government AI contractor.
Still, even major contract wins don’t automatically translate into straight‑line stock gains—especially when valuation is already pricing in a long runway of execution.
Earnings and guidance: Palantir raised forecasts again, but valuation sets a higher bar
Palantir’s most recent earnings season reinforced why the stock has been a market standout in 2025.
Reuters reported that Palantir’s third-quarter results beat expectations, and the company projected fourth‑quarter revenue of about $1.327–$1.331 billion, above the analyst average estimate cited by LSEG. Palantir also raised its full‑year revenue outlook again to roughly $4.396–$4.40 billion. [9]
But Reuters also captured the tension that has followed Palantir all year: even with “beat and raise” execution, investors worry about any sign of deceleration when a stock trades at extreme multiples. In the same report, Carson Group associate portfolio manager Blake Anderson called the implied slowdown “a cause of concern” given the valuation, while D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria argued results could still support the stock at unusually high valuation levels. [10]
Earlier in 2025, Reuters also documented how elevated expectations can cut both ways—highlighting a quarter where Palantir raised its annual revenue forecast but investors still reacted negatively because they wanted even more upside surprise. In that piece, Running Point Capital CIO Michael Ashley Schulman summed up the mood: “Investors were hoping for fireworks.” [11]
The valuation question: Palantir is priced like a category-defining AI platform
Palantir’s stock is no longer being valued like a typical enterprise software name.
Reuters noted that Palantir’s forward earnings multiple (using LSEG data cited at the time) was far above many mega-cap tech peers—one reason even good news can be met with profit-taking. [12]
Reuters Breakingviews went further, framing Palantir as one of the market’s most expensive large U.S. companies on a sales-multiple basis, citing analysis from Trivariate Research to contextualize how rare those valuation levels are historically. [13]
This is the key point for readers looking at PLTR “forecasts” in late 2025: the market is not merely forecasting growth—it’s pre-paying for it. That’s why price moves can be disproportionate to the day’s headlines.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: “Hold” consensus, but a massive spread
Wall Street’s views on Palantir remain unusually polarized.
MarketWatch’s analyst snapshot lists Palantir’s average recommendation as Hold with an average target price around $189 (near today’s after‑close level). [14]
What’s more telling than the average, however, is the range:
- Bullish targets argue Palantir can justify premium multiples as AIP adoption spreads through enterprises and defense modernization accelerates.
- Bearish targets focus on valuation risk, competition, and the possibility that growth normalizes faster than the stock is pricing in.
Examples of that split include:
- Wedbush lifting its price target to $230 while keeping an outperform stance, citing momentum in commercial AI and partnerships. [15]
- Bank of America reiterating a Buy view and raising its target (reported by Business Insider), pointing to Palantir’s forward-deployed engineering model and “agentic AI” positioning as differentiators. [16]
- RBC Capital maintaining an Underperform stance with a much lower target (reported by Investing.com), underscoring how valuation frameworks can diverge dramatically across the Street. [17]
For investors, the practical takeaway is that “the consensus” matters less than why the Street disagrees: Palantir’s valuation is effectively a referendum on whether it becomes a durable, core layer of AI-era operations across government and industry.
Regulatory and reputational risk: a live issue, especially in Europe
Beyond numbers, Palantir periodically faces scrutiny around data governance and public-sector reliance.
In the UK, The Guardian reported that MPs questioned Palantir contracts after an investigation raised security concerns in Switzerland—reigniting debates about sovereignty, transparency, and reliance on a U.S.-based vendor for sensitive systems. [18]
These issues can matter for the stock in two ways:
- Procurement friction: additional oversight can slow deal cycles or raise compliance costs.
- Narrative risk: headlines can influence sentiment quickly in a stock with heavy retail participation and elevated expectations.
The exchange is closed now: what investors should know before the next session
Because it is after 4:00 p.m. ET in New York, the U.S. regular stock market session has ended (though electronic after-hours trading may still occur at many brokers). [19]
If you’re watching Palantir into the next session (the next regular session after Friday is Monday), here are the most important, non‑speculative items to track:
Weekend headline risk can drive Monday gaps
Palantir is a stock that can react strongly to:
- fresh defense, intelligence, or agency IT headlines,
- any incremental ShipOS rollout details,
- geopolitical developments that lift or weigh defense-tech sentiment.
Watch how the market treats “expensive AI” into year-end
Reuters highlighted how thin year-end sessions can still produce meaningful moves, even when indexes barely budge. If broader AI leadership rotates again—toward or away from richly valued names—Palantir can move with it. [20]
Re-check analyst notes and target revisions
Given the unusually wide spread of targets (from deeply bearish to highly bullish), incremental rating changes can affect sentiment more than usual—especially in a stock that many investors own as a “belief” position in applied AI.
Remember: December 26 has a strong seasonal history, but it’s not destiny
MarketWatch noted that Dec. 26 has historically been one of the market’s more consistently positive days, and it falls within the “Santa Claus rally” window—useful context, but not a substitute for fundamentals and risk control. [21]
Bottom line for Palantir stock today
Palantir stock’s late‑December dip looks less like a verdict on the business and more like a familiar 2025 pattern: strong fundamentals and big government wins running head‑on into valuation pressure—with holiday liquidity amplifying the move.
With ShipOS adding to Palantir’s defense narrative, and recent guidance reinforcing top-line momentum, the core question for the next leg isn’t whether Palantir is executing—it’s whether the market will continue to pay a premium that assumes years of near‑flawless results. [22]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investors.com, 5. www.navy.mil, 6. www.businessinsider.com, 7. www.navy.mil, 8. www.businessinsider.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.businessinsider.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.theguardian.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.navy.mil
