Palantir Stock (PLTR) Jumps on $448 Million U.S. Navy Deal: Latest Price, News, and 2025–2026 Forecasts (Updated December 10, 2025)

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) is back in the spotlight today as a wave of fresh news, big new defense contracts, and sharply divided Wall Street opinions collide around one of the market’s hottest artificial intelligence stocks.

On December 10, 2025, Palantir shares are trading just below recent highs after the company won a $448 million ShipOS contract with the U.S. Navy, extending an already aggressive government AI push. At the same time, Bank of America is reiterating a “Buy” rating, while RBC Capital and “Big Short” investor Michael Burry are loudly warning of a massive downside risk, calling Palantir one of the most overvalued names in the AI boom. ^[1]

This article pulls together the key news, analyst forecasts, and fresh commentary as of December 10, 2025, to give you a clean, Google‑News‑ready overview of what’s really going on with Palantir stock.

Important: Nothing in this article is financial advice. It’s informational only. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional before investing.

Palantir Stock Today: Price and Momentum Snapshot

• Last regular close (Dec 9, 2025): about $181.84 per share. ^[2]
• Premarket (Dec 10, after Navy news): around $184.31, up ~1.4% vs. the prior close, according to Tokenist and Investing.com coverage. ^[3]
• Year-to-date move: roughly +140% to +150% in 2025, depending on the source. Zacks pegs the 1‑year gain at +150.5%, while Benzinga tallies +142% YTD. ^[4]
• 52‑week range: about $63.40 at the low vs. $207.52 at the high, per Benzinga’s recap. ^[5]
• Market cap: roughly $430+ billion, with a trailing P/E above 400, reflecting extremely rich pricing for Palantir’s AI growth story. ^[6]

In other words, Palantir is no longer a speculative small cap—it is trading like a mega‑cap AI platform with expectations to match.

The Big December 10 Headline: A $448 Million U.S. Navy “ShipOS” Deal

The clearest catalyst for today’s move is the U.S. Navy’s new ShipOS agreement:

• The Navy awarded Palantir a contract worth up to $448 million to deploy ShipOS, an AI‑driven maintenance and logistics platform, across its nuclear submarine programs. ^[7]
• ShipOS integrates Palantir’s Foundry analytics stack with AI, giving real‑time visibility into supply chains, parts, and maintenance schedules for Virginia‑class and Columbia‑class submarines. ^[8]
• Early pilots reportedly cut maintenance schedule planning from ~160 manual hours to under 10 minutes, and compressed material review cycles from weeks to under an hour—exactly the kind of “quantified exceptionalism” Palantir likes to showcase. ^[9]
• The Navy and Palantir have both signaled that ShipOS could expand beyond submarines into shipbuilding and repair more broadly, including aircraft carriers and other naval platforms. ^[10]

Tokenist and Investing.com note that the news pushed PLTR higher in premarket trading, framing the deal as another proof point that Palantir is becoming a core AI infrastructure provider to the U.S. military. ^[11]

Why this contract matters for the stock

1. Size & visibility: $448 million is material even for a company on track to do over $4 billion in 2025 revenue. ^[12]
2. Strategic footprint: It deepens Palantir’s role in critical defense logistics, an area that tends to yield long‑dated, sticky contracts. ^[13]
3. Reputational signal: The deal follows a U.S. Army enterprise agreement worth up to $10 billion over 10 years, part of a pattern of Palantir consolidating legacy government IT systems under its platforms. ^[14]

For bulls, this is exactly the kind of contract that justifies Palantir’s premium valuation. For bears, it doesn’t change the math that they see as unsustainable.

Q3 2025: A Blowout Quarter Behind the Hype

Much of today’s debate is grounded in Palantir’s third‑quarter 2025 numbers, reported in early November and repeatedly cited in recent analysis:

• Revenue: about $1.18 billion, up 63% year‑over‑year. ^[15]
• U.S. revenue: up 77% YoY.
• U.S. commercial revenue: up a staggering 121% YoY, as AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) continues to gain traction with enterprises. ^[16]
• Government revenue: up ~52% YoY, driven by federal contracts in defense and national security. ^[17]
• Deal activity: 204 deals worth at least $1 million, 91 worth $5 million+, and 53 worth $10 million+ signed in the quarter. ^[18]
• Profitability:
  • Adjusted operating margin: 51%, a record for the company. ^[19]
  • GAAP operating income: about $393 million.
  • GAAP net income: around $476 million, with GAAP EPS of $0.18 and adjusted EPS of $0.21, up more than 100% year‑over‑year. ^[20]
• Balance sheet: roughly $6.4 billion in cash and equivalents, and essentially no debt, giving Palantir ample capacity to keep investing while many peers remain cash‑hungry. ^[21]

Zacks notes that the consensus for Q4 2025 EPS is about $0.23, implying ~64% year‑over‑year earnings growth. For full‑year 2025 and 2026, they see earnings rising 78% and 43%, respectively, with sales up roughly 54% in 2025 and 41% in 2026. ^[22]

This is the fundamental backdrop that both bulls and bears are reacting to: hyper‑growth plus real profitability, but at valuations that some consider absolutely stratospheric.

What Wall Street Is Saying Today (and It’s Very Split)

1. Bank of America and other bulls: “Defense AI tailwinds justify the premium”

A fresh note highlighted on TipRanks shows Bank of America’s Mariana Perez Mora reaffirming a “Buy” rating on PLTR, following the firm’s Defense Technology Forum: ^[23]

• She cites rising demand for AI and real‑time data tools across the military, where Palantir’s long experience in logistics, planning, and operations gives it a strong edge. ^[24]
• The note emphasizes that defense AI budgets remain resilient, even in a choppy macro environment, positioning Palantir to benefit as agencies standardize on a few proven software platforms. ^[25]

Despite this bullish stance, TipRanks’ aggregate view shows Wall Street as a whole is more cautious:

• Consensus rating:“Hold”, based on 3 Buys, 11 Holds, and 2 Sells.
• Average price target: around $183.07, only ~0.7% upside vs. current levels. ^[26]

Zacks, by contrast, openly calls PLTR a “Buy”, focusing on its dominant role in enterprise AI integration, strong margins, and clean balance sheet. ^[27]

24/7 Wall St. recently highlighted Palantir’s 63% revenue growth, 121% U.S. commercial growth, and 51% adjusted operating margin, arguing that its AI analytics platform justifies a significant premium over more traditional software peers, though even they acknowledge the valuation is extreme by historical standards. ^[28]

2. RBC Capital and the skeptics: “72% downside is possible”

On the other end of the spectrum is Rishi Jaluria at RBC Capital, arguably the most prominent Palantir bear on Wall Street:

• Jaluria maintains an “Underperform” rating and recently raised his price target from $45 to $50—still implying roughly 70–72% downside from current levels. ^[29]
• Earlier in the year he warned Palantir could crash below $50, calling the valuation “unsustainable” and noting that PLTR was trading at more than 20x 2026 estimated revenue, among the highest multiples in his SaaS coverage universe. ^[30]
• Jaluria also argues that Palantir’s core platforms, Gotham and Foundry, may be too customized to scale as efficiently as more standardized SaaS offerings, and that such a bespoke approach could limit operating leverage over the very long term. ^[31]

Recent Motley Fool and Nasdaq‑syndicated pieces amplify this view, pointing out that Palantir’s price‑to‑sales ratio has, at points, topped 100x, levels rarely seen even during the dot‑com bubble. ^[32]

3. Michael Burry vs. the big banks

Adding fuel to the narrative, Michael Burry—of The Big Short fame—has disclosed bearish positions (put options) on both Nvidia and Palantir. ^[33]

A new 24/7 Wall St. article published December 10 dives into his rationale: ^[34]

• Scion’s Q3 filings showed put options on ~5 million Palantir shares and 1 million Nvidia shares.
• Burry’s critique of Palantir isn’t about the business quality; he explicitly acknowledges it’s a strong company. His problem is price:
  • He points out that investors are paying roughly 180x 2026 estimated earnings and more than 250x 2025 earnings.
  • He highlights price‑to‑sales multiples near 100x, arguing that even great businesses have historically struggled to justify such levels once the market mood shifts. ^[35]
• Burry likens today’s AI boom to the dot‑com era, comparing Palantir’s valuation to hyped consulting and infrastructure names that soared in the late 1990s and then “settled” at far lower multiples. ^[36]

At the same time, Morgan Stanley has raised its PLTR price target to $205, and Bank of America to $255, underscoring how sharply opinions differ even among professionals reviewing the same numbers. ^[37]

Consensus Forecasts for 2025–2032

Near‑term (12‑month) price targets

Different aggregators paint slightly different pictures:

• StocksGuide:
  • Average target:$204 (about +12% upside from ~$182).
  • Range:$50.50 (low) to $267.75 (high), implying possible outcomes from –72% to +47%.
  • Rating breakdown: 11 Buy, 18 Hold, 3 Sell across 32 analysts. ^[38]
• TipRanks:
  • Average target: about $183.07 (essentially flat vs. current price).
  • Rating breakdown: 3 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell, overall “Hold” consensus. ^[39]
• 24/7 Wall St. (Dec 10 price‑prediction feature):
  • Reports Street high $255, median around $188, and low $50.
  • Their own editorial one‑year target sits near $107, implying ~40% downside from current levels, based on expectations of multiple compression even as revenue grows. ^[40]

In other words, traditional analyst targets cluster around today’s price, with a few outliers calling for either substantial upside or deep downside.

Long‑term fundamental forecasts

StocksGuide also aggregates detailed fundamental projections out to 2032: ^[41]

• Revenue forecast:
  • 2024: ~$2.9 billion
  • 2025: ~$4.5 billion (up ~56.5% YoY)
  • 2026: ~$6.4 billion
  • 2030: about $21 billion
  • 2032: about $35 billion
• Profitability:
  • Net margin predicted to rise to ~39% in 2025, and remain near 38–39% through the late 2020s.
  • EPS expected to climb from $0.19 (2024) to $0.74 (2025), then over $3.00 by 2030 and above $5.00 by 2032, if growth and margins hold.
• Valuation metrics:
  • Current P/E still above 400, falling to ~246x 2025 EPS and ~177x 2026 EPS in their model—still very high, but mathematically lower as earnings catch up.
  • EV/Sales expected to decline from ~110x now to ~66x in 2026 and eventually ~12x by 2032, assuming the share price does not keep accelerating at its past pace.

These forecasts essentially describe the “soft landing” scenario for valuation: Palantir grows quickly enough over many years that its multiples slowly normalize without a violent re‑rating. Bears like RBC and Burry are effectively arguing that the market will force that normalization much faster, via a sharp price drop instead of waiting for earnings to catch up.

AI Models Are Bullish Too—With Big Ranges

Finbold ran a widely‑shared experiment on December 6, asking OpenAI’s ChatGPT to predict Palantir’s year‑end 2025 price: ^[42]

• Base‑case (most likely): PLTR between $205 and $235 by December 31, 2025.
• Bullish case:$260–$310, assuming faster‑than‑expected enterprise AI adoption, multiple major contract wins, and strong macro tailwinds.
• Bearish case:$140–$170, reflecting a sharp valuation reset or slowdown in AI spending.
• Probability‑weighted outcome: around $225 per share, modestly above the most optimistic human analyst targets.

The AI model’s view is clearly more optimistic than the average Wall Street forecast, but it also highlights just how wide the plausible range of outcomes has become.

Again: this is not a guarantee, just one model’s probabilistic scenario. Still, it underscores why Palantir has become a battleground stock—its future outcomes span everything from “overvalued bubble” to “core AI infrastructure giant.”

New Growth Themes Highlighted in December Coverage

1. Defense AI and “software‑first” militaries

Beyond the new ShipOS deal, recent Reuters and industry coverage show Palantir positioning itself as a long‑term backbone for U.S. and allied militaries: ^[43]

• The U.S. Army enterprise contract (up to $10 billion over 10 years) consolidates dozens of smaller deals into one framework, making Palantir the default AI/data layer for many systems.
• Partnerships with companies like Boeing Defense extend Palantir’s software into aerospace manufacturing and classified projects. ^[44]
• Palantir and Anduril are trialing next‑generation battlefield communication and data fusion systems, though a recent Army memo flagged design flaws, underscoring the experimental and sometimes messy nature of defense innovation. ^[45]

Today’s ShipOS announcement fits into this narrative: Palantir wants to be the operating system for defense logistics and readiness, not just another contractor.

2. Chain Reaction OS and the AI datacenter boom

While defense is the most visible, December coverage also highlights Palantir’s ambitions in the AI datacenter and energy ecosystem:

• Reuters reported on December 4 that Palantir, Nvidia, and CenterPoint Energy are partnering on “Chain Reaction”, a platform that uses AI to coordinate the complex supply chains, permitting, and grid constraints involved in building large AI datacenters. ^[46]
• Benzinga’s December 10 article describes “Chain Reaction OS” as an AI system designed to orchestrate datacenter energy use, positioning Palantir at the center of the AI power bottleneck—one of 2025’s hottest investment themes. ^[47]

If defense is Palantir’s “old” growth engine, datacenters and energy infrastructure may be one of the key new growth legs analysts will watch into 2026.

Key Risks Highlighted by Critics

Even bullish analysts agree that Palantir’s downside could be severe if expectations stumble. The main risks cited across recent coverage include:

1. Extreme valuation risk
   • Trailing P/E above 400, forward P/E still in the 200+ range in many models.
   • Price‑to‑sales ratios that have at times exceeded 100x, levels rarely sustainable in large‑cap history. ^[48]
   • As Finbold and others have noted, such valuations typically require “beat and raise” performance quarter after quarter; even a mild disappointment can trigger a sharp re‑rating. ^[49]
2. AI bubble concerns
   • Burry’s Substack and public comments argue the AI trade looks like a classic bubble, with companies and investors extrapolating current demand too far into the future. ^[50]
   • Bank CEOs and strategists have also warned that AI‑driven tech valuations may be vulnerable if earnings or rates surprise to the downside. ^[51]
3. Government & regulatory exposure
   • Palantir depends heavily on U.S. federal and allied government budgets, which can be volatile and politically sensitive. Cuts, delays, or controversies around surveillance and data use could impact both revenue and public perception. ^[52]
4. Execution and competitive pressures
   • While Palantir’s AIP and Foundry face little like‑for‑like competition at scale, hyperscalers (Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud) and other AI integrators are racing to offer overlapping solutions. ^[53]
   • Critics like Jaluria argue that Palantir’s highly tailored deployments may limit its ability to scale like a classic SaaS business, which could become more evident if growth slows. ^[54]

How Palantir Compares to Other AI Leaders Right Now

A new (paywalled) Motley Fool piece—“Is Palantir or Nvidia the Best AI Stock for 2026?”—frames the debate succinctly: both companies are growing revenue north of 60% year‑over‑year, but Palantir trades at markedly richer multiples. ^[55]

• Nvidia is widely seen as the “picks and shovels” of the AI boom, with a still‑lofty but more conventional valuation given its earnings power.
• Palantir is more like the “operating system” layer for AI‑driven decision‑making in government and enterprises—higher margin, but also more dependent on continued belief that it will dominate this niche for years.

This is why some investors prefer to own both, some choose only one, and some—like Burry—are short both.

Takeaways for Investors Reading Today’s Headlines

Putting it all together, here’s how December 10, 2025, looks for PLTR:

1. Fundamentals:
   • Palantir is delivering rarely seen combinations of hyper‑growth and profitability (60%+ revenue growth, 50%+ adjusted operating margins, billions in cash, no debt). ^[56]
2. Growth drivers:
   • Defense AI: ShipOS for the Navy, enterprise deals with the Army, Boeing, and other agencies. ^[57]
   • Commercial AI: U.S. commercial revenue more than doubling, with AIP sold into sectors from finance to manufacturing. ^[58]
   • Datacenter & energy orchestration via Chain Reaction OS, positioning Palantir inside the AI infrastructure boom. ^[59]
3. Valuation & risk:
   • Most traditional analysts see limited near‑term upside from current prices, with consensus targets clustered around $183–$204. ^[60]
   • A vocal minority (RBC, Burry) argue that 70%+ downside is possible if the AI trade deflates or Palantir merely grows “fast” rather than “perfectly.” ^[61]
4. Scenario spread:
   • Long‑range models and AI‑based forecasts envision everything from $140 to $310+ per share over the next year or two, depending on how growth, rates, and sentiment evolve. ^[62]

For long‑term investors, Palantir is now firmly in “high‑conviction, high‑volatility” territory. The company is executing at a very high level, but the stock price already reflects enormous expectations.

If you’re evaluating PLTR after today’s news, it can help to ask yourself:

• Do you believe Palantir can sustain 40–50%+ annual growth and ~40%+ net margins for many years, justifying today’s valuation?
• How comfortable are you with large drawdowns if the AI trade cools or growth normalizes?
• Does Palantir fit your time horizon and risk tolerance, or would a more diversified AI exposure (or no AI exposure at all) be more appropriate?

Again, this is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold Palantir—only a synthesis of the key data and opinions currently driving the stock on December 10, 2025.

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