Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) just wrapped up its worst month since the 2023 AI sell-off, even as the company posts record growth and remains one of Wall Street’s most richly valued artificial intelligence plays. November 29, 2025 brings a flurry of fresh headlines: new analyst price targets, a key downgrade, big institutional buys, insider and ETF selling, and renewed debate over whether Palantir’s AI story justifies its towering valuation. [1]
Palantir stock now: still a giant after a sharp pullback
As of the latest close (Friday, November 28), Palantir shares are trading around $168 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $400–401 billion. [2]
Key snapshot:
- Market cap: about $401 billion [3]
- P/E ratio: ~390x trailing earnings (and several hundred times forward earnings, depending on the estimate) [4]
- 52‑week range: roughly $63.40–$207.52, with the all‑time high set above $207 in early November 2025 [5]
- Analyst consensus: Hold, with a 12‑month average price target clustering around the mid‑$160s to low‑$170s on some platforms, and closer to the high‑$180s on others [6]
Even after November’s sell‑off, PLTR is still up more than 100% year to date, according to multiple recent analyses that put 2025 gains in the 104–115% range. [7]
November 2025: Palantir’s worst month since 2023
The headline story today is just how rough November has been for Palantir’s stock price.
- TipRanks reports that PLTR fell about 16% over the last four weeks, marking its worst monthly performance since August 2023. [8]
- A separate report notes a decline of around 17% for the month, also calling this the steepest drop since August 2023. [9]
- Social and market commentary this morning is echoing that line: Palantir “records its worst month since August 2023 as shares fall over 15% in November.” [10]
The sell‑off comes after:
- A record run in 2023–2025 that saw the stock surge more than 1,000% over two years and more than double again this year. [11]
- Growing concerns about an “AI bubble” and stretched valuations in high‑growth AI names. [12]
Analysts and commentators widely attribute the November slump to a combination of valuation fatigue and high‑profile bearish bets against the stock.
Michael Burry’s short bet and the AI bubble narrative
One of the most talked‑about catalysts behind the pullback is Michael Burry’s wager against Palantir:
- Reuters reported in early November that Burry, of “The Big Short” fame, disclosed bearish positions (put options) against both Palantir and Nvidia, stoking worries that AI high‑flyers had become dangerously overvalued. [13]
- TipRanks notes that Burry’s short position added fuel to the November decline, with Palantir still trading at nearly 700 times future earnings estimates despite the drop. [14]
- A 24/7 Wall St. piece yesterday framed the situation as investors getting Palantir’s “incredibly strong quarter” for “free” after a drop of more than 21% from all‑time highs, but stressed that sentiment has clearly turned more cautious as Burry launches a new “Cassandra Unchained” newsletter with prominent AI‑related short ideas. [15]
The broader narrative: Palantir has become a symbol of the AI trade’s excesses—a company with phenomenal growth, but a valuation that even some bulls concede leaves little room for disappointment.
Earnings backdrop: record Q3 2025 and another guidance raise
The paradox is that fundamentally, Palantir’s numbers look very strong.
For Q3 2025 (reported November 3):
- Revenue: about $1.18 billion, beating expectations of roughly $1.09 billion. [16]
- Adjusted EPS:$0.21, versus Wall Street estimates of $0.17 and up from $0.10 a year earlier. [17]
- Year‑over‑year revenue growth: around 63%, with about 18% sequential growth. [18]
- US commercial business: grew a stunning 121% year over year and 29% sequentially, propelled by demand for Palantir’s AI‑driven platforms. [19]
- Total contract value (TCV): record quarter at $2.8 billion in TCV, according to earnings‑call highlights. [20]
- Free cash flow: about $2 billion in adjusted FCF over the trailing 12 months, signaling that growth is translating into cash. [21]
Guidance was also raised:
- Palantir lifted its full‑year 2025 revenue forecast for the third time this year, now guiding to roughly $4.396–$4.40 billion versus a prior range around $4.142–$4.15 billion. [22]
- For Q4 2025, the company expects revenue of $1.327–$1.331 billion, comfortably above the ~$1.19 billion analyst consensus. [23]
However, even bullish analysts note that the forecast implies a slight deceleration—from 63% growth in Q3 to about 61% in Q4—which some see as a concern given how high the valuation already is. [24]
GuruFocus’s summary of the earnings call also flagged several strategic challenges:
- Europe remains a weak spot, with stagnant performance compared to the explosive US commercial business.
- The company is grappling with cultural and scaling challenges as it grows rapidly.
- Heavy reliance on a small number of large contracts could create risk if any major deal slips or disappears. [25]
Against this backdrop, a new article today on Yahoo/TheStreet argues that Palantir’s aggressive AI push is “testing bears who doubt it can keep winning,” highlighting how the company’s AI platforms continue to draw customers even as skeptics question how long such growth can last. [26]
November 29 analyst headlines: price targets up, one notable downgrade
Today’s news cycle includes several fresh analyst and rating updates.
Freedom Capital & Morgan Stanley: higher targets, cautious tone
An Insider Monkey piece (also syndicated via Finviz) updates multiple analyst moves following Q3: [27]
- Freedom Capital Markets raised its price target on Palantir from $125 to $170 but maintained a Sell rating, stressing that:
- US growth has been exceptional,
- European operations remain flat, and
- current growth rates are “unlikely to persist indefinitely” given elevated valuation and potential pressure on defense budgets and margins. [28]
- Morgan Stanley previously increased its target from $155 to $205 while keeping an Equal Weight rating, citing Palantir’s ninth straight quarter of accelerating growth and strong new business bookings. [29]
The tone from both: impressive execution, but valuation risk is front and center.
Wall Street Zen / MarketBeat: downgrade to “Hold”
MarketBeat reports today that Wall Street Zen has downgraded Palantir from “Buy” to “Hold”, reflecting a more cautious stance after the post‑earnings volatility. [30]
That same MarketBeat data set shows:
- A consensus “Hold” rating across 24 analysts: 5 Buy, 17 Hold, 2 Sell. [31]
- A consensus price target around $172 (roughly in line with, or slightly above, the current price in the high‑$160s). [32]
Separately, TipRanks calculates an average target near $188, implying about 11% upside from current levels, but still framing the overall rating as Hold. [33]
In other words, Wall Street broadly sees Palantir as fully valued to slightly overvalued, with upside viewed as modest relative to the risks.
Big‑money flows: institutions buying, ARK and insiders selling
Another cluster of November 29 news items focuses on who is trading Palantir behind the scenes.
Institutions boosting positions
Multiple new 13F‑related headlines today show continued institutional interest in PLTR: [34]
- The New York State Common Retirement Fund increased its stake by 132% in Q2, now holding about 2.50 million shares, or 0.11% of Palantir, valued around $340.9 million. [35]
- West Family Investments Inc. lifted its stake by 65.5%, buying an additional 3,827 shares to hold 9,672 shares worth roughly $1.32 million. [36]
- Pursue Wealth Partners LLC disclosed a new position in Palantir (size not huge compared with megafunds but still another vote of confidence). [37]
- Legacy Capital Wealth Partners LLC increased its holdings by 26.4% to 8,477 shares valued around $1.16 million. [38]
- Virtue Capital Management LLC, by contrast, reduced its Palantir position by 26.8%, down to about 4,653 shares worth roughly $634,000. [39]
According to MarketBeat’s aggregate figures, about 45–46% of Palantir’s float is now owned by institutions and hedge funds, underscoring how deeply embedded the stock has become in professional portfolios. [40]
ARK Invest trims, insiders cash out
On the selling side:
- A report from Investing.com notes that Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs sold 354,955 shares of Palantir on November 26, worth about $58 million, continuing a multi‑day trend of trimming the position. [41]
- MarketBeat and related filings show that insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter, unloading about 1.15 million shares worth roughly $186 million. Recent sellers include insiders such as Jeffrey Buckley and Ryan D. Taylor, who each reduced their stakes by low‑double‑digit percentages. [42]
Insiders still own about 9.2% of the company, but the pattern of selling will likely draw scrutiny in light of the stock’s very high multiple and the recent price pressure. [43]
Valuation: growth machine priced for perfection
Palantir’s growth story is undeniable:
- 2024 revenue came in around $2.87 billion, up nearly 29% from 2023, while earnings more than doubled to roughly $462 million. [44]
- Q3 2025 delivered 63% year‑over‑year revenue growth, a record “Rule of 40” score of 114, and substantial AI‑driven demand across government and commercial customers. [45]
But the valuation is extreme by almost any traditional measure:
- Reuters recently cited a forward P/E of about 246x immediately after earnings. [46]
- TipRanks now pegs the stock at roughly 700x future earnings estimates after the pullback, depending on the forecast used. [47]
- Data from brokers like Lightyear and MarketBeat still show a trailing P/E close to 390–400x and a PEG ratio above 6. [48]
Analysts quoted by Reuters and other outlets acknowledge that Palantir’s results are strong enough to justify a premium, but warn that even a mild growth slowdown could trigger an outsized reaction in the stock, given these “unprecedentedly high valuation levels.” [49]
Bulls vs. bears after today’s headlines
Putting today’s November 29 news together, the bullish case looks like this:
- Palantir continues to post explosive growth in US commercial and government business, with AI platforms driving large, multi‑year deals. [50]
- Q3 beat both revenue and EPS expectations, and Q4 guidance plus full‑year guidance were raised again. [51]
- Palantir is widely listed among the best‑performing AI stocks heading into 2026, and some long‑term investors view the November slide as a potential opportunity to buy into the AI “operating system” for business and defense. [52]
- Large institutions—from state pension funds to family offices—are still adding to positions, even as volatility rises. [53]
The bearish or cautious case is equally prominent in today’s coverage:
- November’s drop of 16–17% is the worst in more than two years and comes even after a “blowout” quarter, suggesting expectations may have simply become too high. [54]
- High‑profile skeptics like Michael Burry are openly betting against Palantir and the broader AI trade, arguing that the sector is in bubble territory. [55]
- Multiple research firms highlight risks from slowing growth in Europe, potential defense‑budget pressure, and a reliance on a small pool of very large contracts. [56]
- ETF managers such as ARK Invest are trimming positions, and insiders have sold more than $180 million in stock over the last quarter. [57]
- Analyst consensus across platforms is firmly in “Hold” territory, with many arguing that Palantir is priced for near‑perfect execution. [58]
What today’s Palantir news means for investors
For existing or prospective investors, today’s November 29, 2025 news cycle paints a clear picture:
- Fundamentals remain very strong. Revenue, earnings, free cash flow, and AI‑driven demand all look impressive, and management is confident enough to keep raising guidance. [59]
- Valuation and sentiment are the main risks. With P/E multiples in the hundreds and forward estimates stretched, Palantir is highly sensitive to any disappointment or shift in AI sentiment. [60]
- The shareholder base is polarized. Long‑term AI believers, major institutions, and state funds are leaning in, while high‑profile shorts, ETF managers, and some insiders are taking chips off the table. [61]
- Analysts are cautiously constructive. Price targets were broadly raised after Q3, but ratings are mostly Hold, and several houses explicitly call the valuation “extreme” or “elevated.” [62]
As always, this article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering PLTR should weigh Palantir’s rapid growth and strategic position in AI and defense against its very high valuation, headline risk around the AI trade, and their own risk tolerance and time horizon.
References
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