Palantir Stock (PLTR) Today: Nvidia Partnership, ‘Chain Reaction’ Launch and 2026 Price Forecasts After a 2,000% Run

As of December 4, 2025, Palantir stock (NASDAQ: PLTR) is once again front and center in the AI trade — surging on a new Nvidia partnership and a fresh AI infrastructure platform, even as analysts warn that a crash is possible at today’s extreme valuation.

1. Where Palantir Stock Stands Now

Palantir shares are trading around $178 today, giving the company a market cap in the neighborhood of $390–420 billion, depending on the intraday price. ^[1]

Despite a brutal November correction, the stock is:

Up roughly 120%+ in 2025 alone. ^[2]
Up more than 1,500–2,000% over the last three years, depending on the starting point used. ^[3]
Down about 20% from its early‑November all‑time high near $207, putting it in what some analysts call a “local bear market.” ^[4]

On most conventional metrics, Palantir’s valuation sits in the stratosphere:

Trailing 12‑month EPS is about $0.42, implying a P/E ratio around 420x at recent prices. ^[5]
Multiple analyses peg the stock at 80–110x sales (depending on whether you look at trailing vs. forward revenue). ^[6]
Trefis estimates ~100x 2025 revenues and ~561x forward P/E as of early December. ^[7]

That combination — hyper‑growth plus hyper‑valuation — is exactly why Palantir has become the quintessential “battleground” AI stock.

2. The Big New Catalyst: Chain Reaction and the Nvidia–CenterPoint Alliance

A new operating system for AI infrastructure

The most important fresh catalyst for PLTR this week is Chain Reaction, a new “operating system for American AI infrastructure” unveiled by Palantir on December 4. ^[8]

According to Palantir and its partners:

Chain Reaction is designed to connect energy producers, grid operators, and data‑center developers.
The goal is to tackle what Palantir calls the real bottleneck to AI: power and compute capacity, not algorithms. ^[9]
It aims to help modernize aging power plants, stabilize and expand the grid, and accelerate the design and construction of hyperscale AI data centers. ^[10]

In other words, Palantir is trying to position itself as the coordination layer between the power grid and the AI compute boom.

Founding partners: Nvidia and CenterPoint Energy

Two founding partners make this launch especially noteworthy:

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) – A major electric and gas utility serving ~7 million customers in Texas, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio. CenterPoint began working with Palantir after Hurricane Beryl in 2024, using its software to improve storm response and grid resilience. It now plans to use Chain Reaction to increase “speed‑to‑power” and gain better visibility across critical infrastructure as Greater Houston’s electricity demand is projected to jump nearly 50% in five years and double by the mid‑2030s. ^[11]
Nvidia (NVDA) – The GPU giant will integrate Nemotron foundation models, CUDA‑X libraries, accelerated computing and Palantir’s AIP and Ontology with Chain Reaction to support large‑scale AI “factory” build‑outs. The focus is coordinating power generation, distribution, construction and data‑center operations for gigawatt‑scale AI sites. ^[12]

A Reuters report framed the partnership as a way to speed up AI data‑center construction by optimizing the energy and compute supply chain. ^[13] Benzinga noted that Palantir’s message is clear: the “next phase of AI growth” will be defined not by model size but by megawatt availability and real‑time optimization of energy–compute networks. ^[14]

For Palantir, this is strategically powerful:

It extends the company from data and decision software into the physical infrastructure planning layer.
It ties Palantir’s fortunes to long‑lived assets like power grids and data centers that typically endure for decades, not quarters. ^[15]
It strengthens the company’s relationship with Nvidia, a central player in the AI economy.

That’s a big reason PLTR is getting fresh attention today.

3. Fundamentals: Q3 2025 Was a Blowout Quarter

Palantir’s latest results, reported on November 3, 2025, were objectively spectacular:

Q3 revenue: about $1.18 billion, up ~63% year over year, beating consensus by roughly $90 million. ^[16]
Non‑GAAP EPS:$0.21 vs. $0.17 expected, a ~200% increase versus the prior year. ^[17]
U.S. commercial revenue: up 121% year over year, and now roughly one‑third of total sales. ^[18]
New contract value in Q3: around $2.76 billion, up 151% from last year; Palantir’s backlog of unfulfilled contracts climbed to roughly $8.6 billion, up ~91%. ^[19]
Customer count: up about 45% year over year in Q3. ^[20]

Earlier in the year, Q2 2025 marked Palantir’s first quarter above $1 billion in revenue, with 48% growth and U.S. commercial revenue surging 93%. Management raised full‑year 2025 guidance to around $4.14–4.15 billion at that time. ^[21]

Following the Q3 beat, guidance was raised again, with forecasts calling for:

Q4 2025 revenue growth near 60%+ year over year.
Full‑year 2025 revenue growth around 53%, substantially above earlier expectations. ^[22]

Taken together, Palantir is showing:

Accelerating top‑line growth (from ~48% in Q2 to ~63% in Q3).
Explosive commercial momentum driven by its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).
Strong operating leverage, with consensus expecting EBITDA margins in the mid‑40% range and net margins in the mid‑30% range by 2025–2026. ^[23]

For a software company already at multi‑billion revenue scale, those numbers are extremely rare — and they’re central to the bull case.

4. Government and Defense Contracts Remain a Massive Pillar

Despite the commercial boom, Palantir is still deeply rooted in government and defense:

Government customers account for more than half of revenue and include the U.S. Department of Defense, FBI, CDC, ICE, the Department of Agriculture and the UK Ministry of Defence, among others. ^[24]
The company recently secured a 10‑year U.S. Army contract reportedly worth up to $10 billion, consolidating roughly 75 prior contracts. ^[25]
In the UK, Palantir is part of a £1.5 billion defense deal focused on data and AI capabilities. ^[26]
Palantir has also won a roughly $30 million ICE contract, reported as part of a broader effort to build an immigration lifecycle system, as well as contracts linked to NATO defense applications. ^[27]

This base of long‑duration, high‑margin government work underpins Palantir’s cash generation and helps fund its aggressive commercial expansion. At the same time, it introduces concentration and political risk, a key concern in several recent analyses. ^[28]

5. What Wall Street Thinks: Price Targets and Forecasts

Consensus ratings: a cautious “Hold”

Across several data providers, the message is consistent: analysts like the business, but not the valuation.

StockAnalysis aggregates 19 analyst ratings with an average rating of “Hold” and a 12‑month price target around $171.74, implying slight downside from current levels. ^[29]
StocksGuide tracks 25 price‑target estimates with an average target of $204, implying about 16% upside, and notes that 34% rate PLTR a Buy, 56% a Hold and 9% a Sell. ^[30]
One Trefis‑cited RBC analyst rates the stock Underperform with a $50 price target, implying 70%+ downside from recent prices. ^[31]

A recent Nasdaq‑hosted piece from The Motley Fool notes that of 24 analysts covering Palantir, only about 17% rate it a Buy or Strong Buy, despite the company’s stellar fundamentals and gigantic share‑price gains. ^[32]

Long‑term revenue, EPS and margin forecasts

Analyst and model‑based forecasts broadly expect Palantir to remain a hyper‑growth, high‑margin compounder:

StocksGuide’s consensus sees revenue rising from roughly $2.9B in 2024 to $4.3B in 2025 (+48%), then $5.8B in 2026, $7.7B in 2027 and up to ~$35B by 2032. ^[33]
EBITDA is forecast to jump from ~$342M in 2024 to ~$2.0B in 2025, with EBITDA margins stabilizing in the mid‑40% range thereafter. ^[34]
Net income is expected to climb from about $462M in 2024 to $1.5B in 2025, then ~$2.1B in 2026 and $7.8B–$12.9B by 2030–2032, with net margins hovering around 35–38% in the outer years. ^[35]
EPS forecasts move from $0.19 (2024) to $0.65 (2025) and then $0.87 (2026), $1.19 (2027) and $3.29 (2030). ^[36]

24/7 Wall St’s own modeling sees revenue growing from around $3.9B in 2025 to nearly $11.9B by 2030, with EPS expanding from $0.58 to $1.44 over that period — but still concludes that the stock is likely overvalued today, setting a 2025 price target of $107 (roughly 37% downside from current levels). ^[37]

The bottom line: forecasts imply Palantir could become a $10–30B‑revenue software giant with elite profitability — but even those optimistic numbers don’t clearly justify today’s multiples without years of near‑flawless execution.

6. The Bull Case: Palantir as the Operating System for AI

Recent bullish analyses focus on three main themes.

6.1 AIP and rapid enterprise adoption

Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is at the heart of the bullish story:

AIP lets enterprises plug large language models (LLMs) into their existing data and operations, using natural language instead of code, and has driven 93%+ growth in U.S. commercial revenue in Q2 and 121% in Q3. ^[38]
Management highlighted that customers often start with small AIP deployments and then rapidly scale usage across the entire organization, supporting larger multi‑year contracts and a 151% jump in quarterly TCV. ^[39]

A Nasdaq‑published Motley Fool piece argued that this earnings and contract momentum could help Palantir outperform leading AI chip stocks in 2026, as software becomes the layer where enterprises actually unlock value from AI infrastructure. ^[40]

6.2 Massive backlog and multi‑year visibility

With an unfulfilled contract backlog around $8.6B — more than double its trailing‑12‑month revenue — Palantir has unusually strong visibility into future growth. ^[41]

Bulls argue that:

The combination of backlog, accelerating customer growth and rising deal sizes makes it plausible that Palantir will significantly outperform even the lofty consensus estimates.
As earnings compound, today’s extreme P/E ratios could compress sharply without the stock price needing to fall.

A recent Seeking Alpha article with the provocative title “Palantir: 230+ P/E Is Not a Problem” makes this exact point: if growth remains at current levels, today’s valuation multiples may be less dangerous than they look at first glance. ^[42]

6.3 Owning the AI infrastructure stack with Nvidia

The Chain Reaction partnership takes that thesis a step further:

Benzinga’s coverage argues that Palantir and Nvidia are pivoting the AI narrative from “GPUs to gigawatts”, betting that the true constraint — and profit pool — will be in energy‑aware AI infrastructure, not in model size. ^[43]
By acting as the orchestration layer for utilities, grid operators, data‑center developers and AI deployments, Palantir could become an indispensable coordination platform for the physical build‑out of AI. ^[44]

If that happens, bulls see:

A much larger addressable market than pure analytics software.
Stronger competitive moats, because infrastructure projects and utility partnerships tend to be sticky and long‑lived.

7. The Bear Case: Bubble Risk, Volatility and Structural Risks

For every bullish article, there is at least one highly skeptical piece — and they’re not without evidence.

7.1 Extreme valuation and crash risk

Trefis bluntly flags valuation as the first and biggest risk:

As of December 2, they estimate Palantir is trading at roughly 100x 2025 revenues and ~561x forward P/E, calling the stock “highly sensitive to market shifts” and dependent on flawless execution. ^[45]

The Nasdaq‑hosted Motley Fool article “Why Is Wall Street So Bearish on Palantir? There’s 1 Key Reason” makes a similar point, noting that:

Palantir is currently selling for over 400x earnings and more than 100x sales by its calculations.
That could set up a 50%+ correction if sentiment turns or growth slows even modestly. ^[46]

An Invezz analysis, echoed across TradingView and other feeds, warns that Palantir has already fallen ~20% from this year’s high and calls the stock “at risk of a crash” as valuation concerns persist. ^[47]

Forbes’ newly published piece, “What Should Palantir Investors Worry About?”, underscores the volatility: Palantir stock has reportedly dropped more than 30% within less than two months on three separate occasions in recent years, erasing billions in market value each time. ^[48]

7.2 AI competition and government dependence

Trefis also highlights two structural risks: ^[49]

Intense AI competition from Databricks, Snowflake, major cloud providers and new platforms — including tools like Salesforce’s Missionforce.
Government concentration risk, with around 80% of government revenue coming from the U.S., exposing Palantir to political, regulatory and budget shocks.

IG’s pre‑Q3 analysis reached a similar conclusion: despite explosive U.S. commercial growth, government still accounts for about 55% of total revenue, and international growth is lagging. International commercial revenue actually declined year over year in Q2, in part due to regulatory and data‑privacy hurdles. ^[50]

7.3 Smart money skepticism

Some recent coverage highlights how “smart money” is approaching Palantir more cautiously:

A CoinCentral analysis reports that billionaire Ken Griffin’s fund cut its Palantir stake by 32% in Q3 2025, selling more than 220,000 shares after the stock’s 2,100%+ three‑year run. ^[51]
The same piece notes that many prominent billionaires — including Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman and others — have no position in Palantir at all, and that RBC’s $50 price target implies over 70% downside. ^[52]
Separate reporting earlier this year detailed Michael Burry’s large bearish options bets against AI stocks, including Palantir and Nvidia, fueling fears of an AI bubble. ^[53]

Yet not all billionaire‑focused coverage is negative. A recent Motley Fool article notes that most billionaire investors who do own Palantir have not been aggressive sellers, arguing that their willingness to ride out volatility reflects conviction in the long‑term AI opportunity. ^[54]

8. Scenarios for Palantir Stock Heading Into 2026

No one can predict Palantir’s exact share price in 2026 or 2030, but current research sketches three broad scenarios.

8.1 High‑growth, high‑multiple “winner”

In this scenario:

Palantir continues to grow revenue 40–50%+ annually through at least 2027.
AIP and Chain Reaction deepen Palantir’s role as the de facto operating system for AI and AI infrastructure.
EBITDA and net margins stabilize in the 40–45% and 35–38% ranges, respectively, as forecast by consensus. ^[55]

If that happens, the stock doesn’t have to crash for valuation to normalize. Even if the P/E compresses from ~400x to, say, 80–100x over several years, strong earnings growth could still support solid total returns, especially if Palantir’s revenue reaches the $10–20B range by the end of the decade. ^[56]

8.2 “Excellent company, disappointing stock”

Here:

Palantir largely hits consensus forecasts — or grows somewhat faster — but sentiment rotates away from high‑multiple AI names.
The P/E ratio compresses from ~400x closer to 40–60x, in line with other premium software names, even as fundamentals continue improving. ^[57]

Under that scenario, share‑price returns could be flat or negative for several years, even as the business grows, roughly matching more cautious targets like $107–$155 from 24/7 Wall St and some Wall Street analysts. ^[58]

8.3 Bubble burst

The most bearish analyses — including Trefis’ warnings and various AI‑bubble commentaries — envision:

A macro or AI‑specific shock that causes investors to re‑rate the entire high‑multiple AI cohort downward.
Palantir’s valuation collapsing back toward 20–30x forward earnings, similar to more mature software peers.

Given current levels, that could mean 50–70% downside from today’s price, a risk explicitly highlighted by some analysts and short‑biased commentators. ^[59]

9. What to Watch Next

For investors tracking PLTR, several signposts will matter more than the day‑to‑day volatility:

AIP and Chain Reaction traction
- New commercial wins, especially large multi‑year deals driven by AIP and the new infrastructure OS.
- Case studies from utilities and data‑center developers that validate Chain Reaction’s value. ^[60]
Backlog and TCV growth
- Whether total contract value and unfulfilled obligations continue to grow faster than revenue, signaling durable demand. ^[61]
Revenue growth and margins
- Can Palantir sustain 40%+ growth while keeping EBITDA margins in the mid‑40s and net margins in the mid‑30s, as consensus expects? ^[62]
Government exposure and regulation
- U.S. budget dynamics, regulatory scrutiny of data usage and any new SEC or privacy‑related investigations affecting Palantir’s large government contracts. ^[63]
Competitive landscape
- Moves from Databricks, Snowflake, hyperscale clouds and smaller AI analytics players, and whether Palantir continues to win enterprise‑wide deployments despite the competition. ^[64]

10. Bottom Line: A High‑Conviction Story With High‑Octane Risk

Palantir today is a paradox:

Fundamentals are some of the strongest in large‑cap software — 60%+ revenue growth, a surging commercial business, expanding margins and a rapidly growing backlog of multi‑year contracts.
Strategically, the company is moving beyond data analytics into AI infrastructure orchestration via Chain Reaction, with heavyweight partners like Nvidia and CenterPoint. ^[65]
Valuation and volatility, however, are extreme, with the stock trading at roughly 400x earnings, 80–100x sales and a history of multiple 30%+ corrections in short periods. ^[66]

For long‑term, high‑risk‑tolerant investors, Palantir represents a pure‑play bet that AI software and infrastructure coordination will create a handful of dominant winners — and that Palantir will be one of them.

For more conservative investors, the combination of valuation risk, competitive pressure and government dependence may justify waiting for clearer evidence that growth can remain exceptional as the company scales — or for a much lower entry price.

Either way, the next chapters of the Palantir story will likely be written not in quarterly “beats,” but in how quickly its AI platforms become embedded in the critical infrastructure of governments, utilities and global enterprises.

Note: This article summarizes publicly available information as of December 4, 2025 and is for informational purposes only. It is not personal investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.