NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 3:16 a.m. ET — Market closed
Pattern Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PTRN) heads into the final full trading week of 2025 with U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend and investors focused on what could move the stock when trading resumes Monday morning.
Shares of Pattern Group finished Friday’s session at $11.84, up about 3% on the day, before slipping to around $11.70 in after-hours trading. [1]
That Friday bounce matters because PTRN has recently been trading near its lows since the company’s September IPO—an area where sentiment can flip quickly on thin year-end liquidity, a single research note, or an unexpected company update.
What’s new in the last 24–48 hours: newsflow is light, but analyst consensus stays bullish
The most widely circulated PTRN-specific update over the past day has been an analyst-consensus recap highlighting that Pattern Group carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus among the analysts tracked, with an average 12‑month price target around $21. [2]
That target implies substantial upside from Friday’s close—but it also underlines the tension around PTRN right now: Wall Street’s modeled upside remains large, while the stock price has been grinding lower into late December.
Separately, earlier this week Pattern hit a new 52‑week low intraday (as low as $11.37 on Dec. 23, per MarketBeat’s report), a reminder that the tape has been punishing even as many published price targets stayed elevated. [3]
Where the stock stands going into the next session
Price snapshot (as of the last regular session close):
- Friday close: $11.84 [4]
- After-hours (Friday evening): about $11.70 [5]
- Market cap: about $2.1 billion [6]
Pattern’s IPO was priced at $14.00 per share in September, and the company began trading under ticker PTRN shortly after. [7]
Fundamentals: Pattern’s latest guidance is the centerpiece, not the weekend tape
The cleanest fundamental anchor for investors right now is Pattern’s most recent quarterly report and outlook.
In its third-quarter 2025 results release, Pattern reported:
- Revenue of $640 million (record quarter; +46% year-over-year)
- Net Revenue Retention (NRR) of 122%
- Adjusted EBITDA of $41 million (+88% year-over-year) [8]
The company also called out that the quarter’s GAAP net loss was heavily influenced by IPO-related items, including stock-based compensation and related taxes, alongside IPO conversion impacts reflected in the per-share figures. [9]
Most importantly for forward-looking investors, Pattern issued fourth-quarter guidance of:
- Revenue: $680 million to $700 million
- Adjusted EBITDA: $38 million to $40 million [10]
Management’s tone was confident. CEO Dave Wright said the company delivered record results in key metrics in its first quarter as a public company, while CFO Jason Beesley pointed to a “record year” and outlined expectations for continued growth into Q4. [11]
That guidance framework is what Monday’s trading will ultimately keep triangulating around—especially if new analyst notes, channel checks, or industry datapoints hit the tape.
Corporate catalysts: acquisitions + upcoming investor conference
Pattern has been active on the corporate-development front, and those moves still hang over the story even if they didn’t break in the last 48 hours.
NextWave acquisition: TikTok Shop and creator-led commerce
On Dec. 18, Pattern announced it acquired NextWave, describing the deal as a push deeper into TikTok Shop operations, live selling, and creator/affiliate acceleration. [12]
Pattern CEO Dave Wright said, “We are excited to welcome Grace Yang and the NextWave team to Pattern,” tying the acquisition to scaling social commerce as creators reshape discovery and conversion. NextWave Founder and CEO Grace Yang said joining Pattern would help scale NextWave’s TikTok Shop capabilities with Pattern’s platform and reach. [13]
For investors, the market question is straightforward: do these acquisitions translate into durable growth and better unit economics—or do they add integration risk and keep margins noisy? Pattern’s own commentary has emphasized operating at the intersection of “intelligence and execution” across marketplaces. [14]
Needham Growth Conference (January 2026): a scheduled “visibility” event
Pattern also disclosed that senior management will present at the Needham Growth Conference in New York City on Jan. 14, 2026, with a webcast planned for 3:45 p.m. ET. [15]
These conferences don’t usually create fundamental change by themselves, but they can matter for a newer public company—especially one still establishing its public-market narrative post-IPO.
Wall Street forecasts: the “upside gap” is the headline, but details matter
Across the analyst snapshots circulating this weekend, the topline message is consistent: the Street’s published targets are well above the current stock price.
MarketBeat’s consensus view shows:
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy (based on 13 analyst ratings)
- Average price target:$21
- Target range:$17 to $23 [16]
MarketBeat also lists multiple firms as covering the stock (including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Needham, Stifel, Baird, William Blair and others). [17]
One analyst explicitly identified on MarketBeat’s coverage timeline is Ralph Schackart of William Blair, who is shown as initiating coverage with an Outperform rating (as reflected in MarketBeat’s analyst history section). [18]
Investors should still treat the “upside gap” with healthy skepticism: price targets can lag fast-moving tape action, and they can vary materially based on assumptions around take rates, retention, ad-tech contribution, and profitability timing.
Positioning check: short interest and borrowing costs suggest potential for volatility
PTRN’s setup includes enough short interest to amplify moves—especially around catalysts—without necessarily making it a classic “crowded short.”
Fintel reports (sourced from exchange data and partners) approximately:
- Short interest: ~2.29 million shares
- Days to cover:6.51
- Short interest as % of float:~6.2%
- Recent borrow fee (annualized): roughly 4.78%–5.02% in late December [19]
Those figures don’t guarantee anything dramatic. But they do suggest PTRN can move faster than you’d expect if liquidity dries up—an important note heading into year-end trading conditions.
What investors should know before Monday’s session
Because U.S. exchanges are closed now, the practical “game plan” is about preparation and risk control for the reopen.
1) Know the clock: when price discovery starts again
On Monday, investors may see PTRN trade in extended hours before the opening bell. Nasdaq notes that pre-market runs from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET and after-hours from 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET, with typically lower liquidity—conditions where limit orders are often advisable. [20]
2) Sunday evening futures can reset the tone
While PTRN itself won’t trade on Sunday, U.S. equity index futures typically reopen Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET (CME Globex hours for major equity index futures are listed as Sunday evening through Friday with a daily maintenance break). [21]
If futures gap meaningfully, PTRN—like most growth-tilted names—can feel that sentiment shift immediately in pre-market.
3) Watch for “quiet” filings and delayed reactions
For newer IPOs, it’s not unusual for meaningful information to surface through filings, conference appearances, or follow-on analyst updates rather than splashy headlines. With Pattern’s next scheduled visibility event (Needham conference) approaching in January, investors will be scanning for any incremental guidance color or integration updates tied to recent acquisitions. [22]
4) The real catalyst remains execution vs. expectations
Pattern has put measurable targets on the table (Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges). Monday’s trading won’t change those numbers—but any fresh analyst note, channel datapoint, or peer read-through that changes confidence in that trajectory can move PTRN quickly given where it sits on the chart. [23]
Bottom line
Pattern Group stock enters Monday with an unusual combination: recent weakness near lows, fresh-ish post-IPO financial guidance, and analyst targets that still imply significant upside—all at a time when market liquidity can be patchy and reactions can be exaggerated.
For investors, the immediate task isn’t to over-interpret the weekend. It’s to monitor early Monday price discovery, keep an eye on any incremental company updates, and weigh whether Pattern’s acquisition-driven expansion and guided growth path justify the valuation gap implied by Wall Street’s targets. [24]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.pattern.com, 8. www.pattern.com, 9. www.pattern.com, 10. www.pattern.com, 11. www.pattern.com, 12. www.businesswire.com, 13. www.businesswire.com, 14. www.pattern.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. fintel.io, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.cmegroup.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.pattern.com, 24. www.businesswire.com
