As Wall Street heads into the first trading session of December 2025, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is one of the most hotly debated fintech stocks: fundamentally stronger after a big third‑quarter beat, but still trading near multi‑year lows.
This article pulls together all major PayPal stock news, forecasts and analyses published between November 28–30, 2025, and sets the scene for PYPL before the U.S. market opens on Monday, December 1, 2025.
1. Where PayPal stock stands heading into December 1
Current price and recent performance
- Last trading day (Friday, November 28, 2025):
PayPal shares closed around $62.67–$62.69, up roughly 1.4% on the day. MarketBeat’s trading recap notes a 1.4% gain to $62.67, with an intraday high of $63.06, on volume about 37% below the average session. [1] - After‑hours trading: MarketBeat and MarketBeat’s forecast page show the stock essentially flat in extended hours at $62.67 as of 4:59 p.m. Eastern on November 28. [2]
- 52‑week range: About $55.85 (low) to $93.66 (high), so the stock is trading in the lower third of its 12‑month range. [3]
- Valuation: Recent summaries from MarketBeat and Google Finance put PayPal’s trailing P/E around 12.5–12.6, with a market cap in the high‑$50s to low‑$60s billions. [4]
On November 28, Benzinga highlighted that PayPal’s P/E is far below the Financial Services sector average of about 43.7, arguing this could point to undervaluation relative to peers, while cautioning that P/E alone doesn’t guarantee a bargain. [5]
Year‑to‑date and 12‑month returns
- A November 30 valuation review from Simply Wall St notes that PayPal’s latest share price around $62.69 reflects a ~9.5% drop over the past month and a ~27–28% decline year‑to‑date, with a one‑year total shareholder return of about –27.6%. [6]
- Zacks similarly flagged that PYPL is down about 27.5% in 2025, attributing the slide largely to macro uncertainty and intense competition in digital payments, even as fundamentals improve. [7]
In short, PayPal heads into December as a low‑multiple, out‑of‑favor fintech name despite solid earnings growth and new shareholder‑friendly moves.
2. Key PayPal stock news from November 28–30, 2025
2.1. November 28: Modest rally, “cheap vs peers” theme
a) “PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) Trading 1.4% Higher – What’s Next?” – MarketBeat (Nov 28)
MarketBeat’s intraday note framed Friday’s move as a modest relief rally:
- Move: Share price rose about 1.4% to $62.67, from a prior close of $61.83, with an intraday high at $63.06 and below‑average volume. [8]
- Earnings recap: The piece reiterated PayPal’s Q3 2025 beat, with:
- Guidance: Management is guiding:
- Q4 2025 EPS:$1.27–$1.31.
- Full‑year 2025 EPS:$5.35–$5.39, up from prior $5.15–$5.30 and above earlier analyst expectations around $5.24. [11]
- Dividend: The article highlighted PayPal’s first‑ever quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, implying a yield around 0.9% at current prices. [12]
- Analyst stance: MarketBeat summarized Street sentiment as a “Hold” consensus, with 16 Buys, 18 Holds and 4 Sells and an average 12‑month target of $82.06. [13]
b) Sector context – MarketWatch and peers
A MarketWatch recap of Global Payments (GPN) noted that on November 28, PayPal climbed about 1.39% to $62.69, slightly outperforming several payment peers in a broadly positive session for U.S. equities. [14]
c) Benzinga valuation check: P/E looks low
Benzinga’s November 28 article, “A Look Into PayPal Holdings Inc’s Price Over Earnings,” underscored that:
- During Friday’s session, PYPL traded near $62.72, up 1.43% on the day. [15]
- PayPal’s P/E ratio is substantially below the Financial Services industry average of about 43.7, supporting the notion that the stock may be undervalued relative to peers if earnings prove durable. [16]
The takeaway from November 28: price action was positive but not euphoric, and the conversation shifted back to “cheap but controversial” rather than broken.
2.2. November 29: Wave of big‑money flows hits the tape
TechStock² (TS2): “PayPal (PYPL) Stock on November 29, 2025: Big‑Money Buying, AI Deals, BNPL Expansion and a New Dividend” – Nov 29 TechStock²
This in‑depth piece stitched together a series of 13F‑based MarketBeat alerts and recent fundamental news into a single narrative:
Institutional flows (Q2 positions, reported now)
Using MarketBeat data, the article highlighted major Q2 positioning that became public in late November: MarketBeat+4TechStock²+4MarketBeat+4
- Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund):
- Initiated a new stake of 12.4 million shares, worth roughly $921.6 million, about 1.3% of PayPal’s shares.
- Loomis Sayles & Co.:
- Increased holdings to 6.52 million shares (~0.68% of the company), worth roughly $485 million.
- Russell Investments Group Ltd.:
- Raised its stake 12.6% to 595,884 shares, valued at around $44 million.
- Groupama Asset Management:
- Boosted its position 56.9% to 41,780 shares, worth ~$3.1 million.
- Korea Investment CORP:
- Trimmed its stake by 26%, selling 183,479 shares, leaving 523,462 shares (~0.05% of PayPal) valued near $38.9 million. [17]
- Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co.:
- Reduced its stake 24.8% to 532,498 shares, worth ~$39.6 million, or about 0.06% of the company. [18]
Overall, MarketBeat and TS2 calculate that around 68% of PayPal’s float is now held by hedge funds and institutions, underscoring how much “smart money” is involved on both sides of the trade. TechStock²+2MarketBeat+2
The message from November 29: institutional opinion is divided but deeply engaged—with large new positions (e.g., Norges Bank) offset by meaningful trims from others.
2.3. November 30: Undervaluation debate and more 13F trims
a) Simply Wall St: “PayPal (PYPL): Assessing Valuation After Executive Stock Sales, Strong Q3, and Strategic Partnership Moves” – Nov 30 [19]
Key points from this valuation‑driven article:
- Several PayPal executives have collectively sold over $1.5 million in stock recently, even as the company reported a strong Q3 and raised its outlook.
- At a share price around $62.69, Simply Wall St calculates a “fair value” of about $105.25, implying roughly 40%+ upside based on its discounted cash‑flow model.
- The article notes that the stock is down about 9.5% over the past month, 27.3% year‑to‑date, and 27.6% over the past year, despite:
- Double‑digit EPS growth,
- A new dividend,
- And strategic partnerships like the OpenAI/ChatGPT deal.
In their view, PayPal screens as fundamentally solid but sentiment‑depressed.
b) New York State Common Retirement Fund trims stake – MarketBeat (Nov 30)
MarketBeat reported that the New York State Common Retirement Fund: [20]
- Reduced its PayPal stake by 3%, selling 41,000 shares in Q2.
- Now owns 1,340,435 shares, worth about $99.62 million and representing roughly 0.14% of PayPal.
The same piece reiterates:
- Q3 EPS of $1.34 on $8.42 billion in revenue,
- Q4 EPS guidance of $1.27–$1.31 and full‑year guidance of $5.35–$5.39, and
- The new $0.14 quarterly dividend (0.9% yield), with an average analyst target of $82.06 and institutional ownership around 68.3%. [21]
c) Leuthold Group cuts its position – MarketBeat (Nov 30)
A separate MarketBeat alert shows Leuthold Group LLC: [22]
- Sold 6,658 shares, trimming its stake by 12.7% to 45,786 shares (~$3.4 million).
- Again, the article stresses that:
- PayPal’s P/E is about 12.56,
- 1‑year low is $55.85, high is $93.66,
- The 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages sit around $67.12 and $69.84, respectively, meaning the stock currently trades below both key trend lines.
Net message for November 30: value‑oriented models and some big funds see long‑term upside, but others are still quietly cutting exposure, leaving a mixed but very active institutional picture.
3. Fundamentals behind the stock: Q3 2025, AI deals, BNPL and dividend
3.1. Q3 2025 earnings: beat and raise
Across Reuters, Investing.com, RoboForex and MarketBeat, the Q3 2025 story is consistent: [23]
- Revenue: ~$8.4–8.42 billion, up about 7% year‑over‑year, beating Street estimates near $8.2 billion.
- Adjusted EPS:$1.34, up ~12% from $1.20 a year ago and well above consensus.
- Total Payment Volume (TPV): Around $458 billion, up 7–8% YoY, showing PayPal’s transaction engine is still growing.
- Profitability: Net margins near 15% and return on equity around 25–26%, indicating a still‑highly profitable franchise.
On the back of this, PayPal raised full‑year 2025 guidance to $5.35–$5.39 in non‑GAAP EPS, reinforcing management’s confidence. [24]
3.2. AI and the OpenAI / ChatGPT partnership
On October 28, 2025, PayPal announced a landmark partnership with OpenAI, making PayPal the first digital payments wallet to be integrated directly into ChatGPT. [25]
- What it does:
- ChatGPT users will be able to buy products and pay with PayPal or Venmo directly inside the app, turning AI‑powered conversations into one‑click commerce. [26]
- PayPal merchants gain the ability to list products in ChatGPT, tapping into AI‑driven discovery without building separate integrations for each AI platform. [27]
- Market reaction: Reuters reported that the combination of the OpenAI deal, raised guidance and dividend news sent PayPal shares up roughly 10–13% in pre‑market trading on the announcement day. [28]
For long‑term investors, this partnership anchors PayPal’s bet on “agentic commerce”—shopping flows where AI agents research, compare and complete purchases on behalf of users.
3.3. BNPL: renewed €65 billion deal with KKR
On November 17, 2025, PayPal and KKR renewed and expanded their European buy‑now‑pay‑later (BNPL) receivables agreement: [29]
- KKR will purchase up to €65 billion (about $75.4 billion) of PayPal’s BNPL loans in Europe through March 2028, with a replenishing loan commitment of up to €6 billion.
- PayPal continues to handle underwriting, servicing and customer relationships, but moves capital‑intensive loans off its own balance sheet, reducing credit risk and supporting margin stability.
Reuters noted that the renewed KKR deal supports PayPal’s Q4 and full‑year outlook, reinforcing the message from the October earnings beat and guidance raise. [30]
3.4. Dividend: a new era for PayPal shareholders
PayPal’s Q3 report also ushered in a new capital‑return policy:
- The board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share, with the first payment scheduled for December 10, 2025 to shareholders of record as of November 19, 2025. [31]
- At current prices (~$62–63), that dividend equates to a yield of about 0.9%, with a payout ratio of roughly 10–11% of adjusted earnings—leaving room for future increases while funding buybacks and growth investments. [32]
Several analyses, including a Seeking Alpha piece titled “PayPal: Potential Dividend Growth Champion (PYPL)”, argue that the combination of rising profitability, modest payout and a strong balance sheet could position PayPal as a dividend growth story over time. [33]
4. What Wall Street and other forecasters expect for PYPL
4.1. Analyst ratings and price targets
MarketBeat consensus (late November 2025): [34]
- Rating:Hold.
- Analysts covered:38.
- Breakdown:16 Buys, 18 Holds, 4 Sells.
- Average 12‑month price target:$82.06, implying about 31% upside from roughly $62.67.
- Target range:
- High: $107
- Low: $60
This is echoed in specific MarketBeat pieces from November 28–30, which repeatedly reference the $82.06 target and Hold consensus when discussing PYPL’s rally, dividend and institutional ownership. [35]
Other sources broadly align:
- Public.com’s forecast page (snippet) notes that about 25 analysts give PayPal an overall “Hold” rating with a 2025 price prediction around $83.28, close to MarketBeat’s average. [36]
4.2. Zacks: down 27.5% YTD but forecasts improving
Zacks’ late‑November research (headline: “PYPL Stock Down 27.5% YTD: Is it a Buying Opportunity or Time to Exit?”) stresses: [37]
- PayPal shares are down roughly 27.5% year‑to‑date, hurt by:
- Macro headwinds,
- Competitive pressure from other payment networks,
- And investor focus on newer fintech names.
- Yet earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward, with:
- Consensus 2025 EPS around $5.34,
- 2026 EPS around $5.87, implying approximately 15% growth in 2025 and 10% in 2026.
- Zacks assigns PayPal a Rank #3 (Hold), a neutral stance reflecting the tug‑of‑war between cheap valuation and growth skepticism.
4.3. Technical and algorithmic forecasts
- RoboForex technical view (Nov 14):
A November stock forecast from RoboForex suggested a base‑case scenario where PayPal rebounds from support near $66 toward $79, and potentially the upper channel around $100, assuming support holds. An alternative scenario warned that a breakdown below $66 could send shares toward $57 before a potential recovery. [38]- Since the stock is now trading below $66, the alternative, more cautious scenario is closer to current price action.
- CoinCodex algorithmic forecast:
CoinCodex’s PYPL model is notably pessimistic, projecting that PayPal is not likely to reach high price milestones like $500 or $2,000 and suggesting a potential price decline over the coming year based purely on technical and quantitative inputs. [39] - Moving‑average signals (Intellectia):
A late‑November technical screen from Intellectia notes that PayPal’s overall moving‑average trend leans bearish, with more negative than positive signals around November 28–December 1, 2025. [40]
These models don’t “know” the business in the way human analysts do, but they help explain why short‑term traders remain cautious even as long‑term fundamental models show upside.
5. How solid are PayPal’s growth drivers?
Drawing on the analysis published between November 28–30 (and the background they reference), investors focused on three main growth pillars:
5.1. AI commerce
Articles from TS2, Investopedia and others argue that PayPal’s integration with ChatGPT and other AI platforms could: TechStock²+2Investopedia+2
- Increase transaction volume by making PayPal a default checkout option in AI‑driven shopping flows.
- Deepen merchant stickiness, since one integration with PayPal opens access to multiple AI assistants (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Google’s AI offerings).
- Position PayPal as a key infrastructure layer for “agentic commerce”, where AI agents handle price comparison, order placement and payments.
However, all of these pieces acknowledge that revenues from AI commerce are still emerging, and the market is trying to price in a concept, not yet a fully quantified profit stream.
5.2. BNPL and balance‑sheet light growth
The renewed KKR BNPL deal is widely seen as a capital‑efficient way for PayPal to stay in the high‑growth BNPL market: [41]
- PayPal can originate and service loans while offloading the majority of credit risk.
- Asset‑based financing through KKR helps stabilize earnings and free up capital for dividends and buybacks.
Analysts generally view this as credit‑risk smart, though BNPL remains exposed to regulatory scrutiny and consumer‑credit cycles.
5.3. Core franchise: branded checkout, Venmo and international
Late‑November analysis (including Zacks and TS2) reiterates several core strengths: TechStock²+2RoboForex+2
- Venmo:
- Q3 saw double‑digit growth in Venmo revenue and total payment volume, with rising use of Venmo debit cards and “Pay with Venmo” at merchants.
- Branded PayPal checkout:
- Remains a high‑margin business, benefitting from cost reductions and a tighter focus on profitable transactions.
- International moves:
- Reports point to international expansion and relaunches (e.g., in the UK) and new products like PayPal+ loyalty as ways to re‑ignite user engagement.
Collectively, these drivers help explain why earnings are rising even as the share price lags.
6. Scenario‑based outlook for PYPL into 2026 (not financial advice)
Based on late‑November news and forecasts, investors going into December 1 are broadly weighing three scenarios. The numbers below are illustrative, not predictions or recommendations.
6.1. Bullish re‑rating scenario
Assumptions:
- PayPal hits or modestly beats its raised 2025 EPS guidance (~$5.35–$5.39). [42]
- Consensus 2026 EPS around $5.87 from Zacks and other sources proves realistic. TechStock²+1
- The market rewards PayPal with a 14–16x multiple on 2026 earnings as the AI, BNPL and dividend stories gain traction.
That simple math implies a potential price range of roughly $82–$94 (5.87 × 14–16), broadly in line with the $82.06 analyst consensus target and near the mid‑point of higher bullish targets. [43]
6.2. Base‑case “cheap but stuck” scenario
Assumptions:
- Earnings stay in line with guidance, but growth remains mid‑single‑digit and competition pressures margins.
- The market keeps PayPal at roughly its current valuation band of about 12–13x forward EPS.
On 2025 EPS of roughly $5.35, that would translate to a price range around $64–$70 (12–13×), not far from where the stock already trades and consistent with a sideways consolidation. [44]
6.3. Bearish breakdown scenario
Assumptions:
- Macro conditions worsen, consumers pull back, or new competitors erode PayPal’s share faster than expected.
- Technical selling persists, and the stock fails to reclaim key moving averages (~$67 and ~$70). [45]
- Shares revisit or break below recent support zones in the mid‑$50s to high‑$50s, broadly in line with RoboForex’s bearish alternative scenario that envisioned a drop toward $57 before any recovery. [46]
In this downside case, algorithmic forecasts like CoinCodex’s more pessimistic outlook—which see limited upside and potential price deterioration—could prove closer to reality. [47]
7. Risks and what to watch as markets open December 1
Going into Monday’s session, traders and longer‑term investors will likely focus on:
- Price action around $60–$63
- This zone has been a recent battleground; a sustained break higher would be the first step toward challenging the 50‑day moving average near $67, while a decisive move lower would re‑open the path toward the $55–$57 area. [48]
- Institutional flow headlines
- The flurry of late‑November 13F‑based stories—from Norges Bank’s billion‑dollar stake to trims by New York State Common Retirement Fund, Leuthold, Korea Investment CORP and GMO—underscores how quickly big money can shift. MarketBeat+4TechStock²+4MarketBeat+4
- Updates on AI commerce adoption
- Any early data points on ChatGPT checkout usage, new AI partnerships, or merchant uptake could sway sentiment on PayPal’s long‑term growth story. [49]
- BNPL performance and credit quality
- The renewed KKR deal shields PayPal from some risk, but regulators and investors will still watch BNPL loss rates and consumer‑credit trends closely. [50]
- Dividend and capital‑return signals
- The December 10 dividend payment will be modest in cash terms, but any future commentary on payout growth or buyback pace could influence how investors value PayPal as a maturing, cash‑generative platform. [51]
8. Bottom line (and an important disclaimer)
Heading into the December 1, 2025 market open, the PayPal story is a clash between strong fundamentals and weak sentiment:
- For the bulls:
- Q3 earnings and guidance were clearly strong.
- The OpenAI/ChatGPT partnership, renewed KKR BNPL agreement and new dividend program are meaningful strategic and financial milestones. [52]
- Most human analysts see significant upside to around $80–$85+ over the next 12 months if execution tracks to plan. [53]
- For the bears and skeptics:
- The stock is still down about 27% YTD, and its technical trend remains weak, with the price below both 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages. [54]
- Competition in payments is fierce, and AI commerce remains more promise than proven profit.
- Some institutions and insiders are still trimming positions into rallies. [55]
This article is for information and news analysis only and is not investment advice.
If you are considering buying or selling PYPL—or any stock—it’s essential to:
- Consider your own financial situation, time horizon and risk tolerance,
- Read the full filings and earnings materials, and
- If needed, consult a licensed financial advisor.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.google.com, 4. www.google.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. simplywall.st, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.benzinga.com, 16. www.benzinga.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. simplywall.st, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. newsroom.paypal-corp.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.sec.gov, 32. leverageshares.com, 33. seekingalpha.com, 34. www.marketbeat.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. public.com, 37. www.nasdaq.com, 38. roboforex.com, 39. coincodex.com, 40. intellectia.ai, 41. newsroom.paypal-corp.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.marketbeat.com, 44. roboforex.com, 45. www.marketbeat.com, 46. roboforex.com, 47. coincodex.com, 48. www.marketbeat.com, 49. www.investopedia.com, 50. newsroom.paypal-corp.com, 51. www.sec.gov, 52. www.reuters.com, 53. www.marketbeat.com, 54. simplywall.st, 55. www.marketbeat.com
