PayPal Stock Today: JPMorgan Downgrade, CFO Warning and 2025

As of December 4, 2025, PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is back in Wall Street’s crosshairs. A cautious outlook from its CFO and a fresh downgrade from JPMorgan have pushed the stock toward the lower end of its 52‑week range, even as long‑term forecasts and valuation models still point to meaningful upside.

Below is a detailed look at the latest PayPal stock news, forecasts and analysis as of 04.12.2025 (4 December 2025).

PayPal stock price snapshot (December 4, 2025)

Latest price: about $61.95 per share, up roughly 1.2% on the day.
Intraday range: $60.41 – $62.00.
Market cap: around $64.1 billion.
Trailing EPS: about $4.97, implying a P/E near 13x at current levels.
52‑week range: roughly $55.85 – $93.66. ^[1]

Despite today’s modest bounce, PayPal shares remain down around the high‑20s to ~30% year to date, reflecting a multi‑year derating from their 2021 peak and a tough 2025 for payment stocks overall. ^[2]

At ~13x trailing earnings and closer to ~10–11x forward earnings (depending on the estimate set used), PayPal now trades at a steep discount to both Visa and Mastercard, which still command mid‑20s P/E multiples. ^[3]

Why PayPal stock is in the spotlight this week

CFO warns of slower branded checkout growth

The biggest near‑term catalyst this week was a sobering update from CFO Jamie Miller at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference.

Key points from her remarks:

PayPal’s branded online checkout volume grew about 5% year‑over‑year in Q3, but Miller warned that growth in the fourth quarter could be “a couple of points slower” — implying around 3% or less. ^[4]
Average order values are under pressure as consumers in the U.S. and Europe trade down and become more selective, even though the number of transactions is holding up. ^[5]
Despite that softness in branded checkout, PayPal reaffirmed its Q4 guidance, citing strength in Venmo, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL), debit card spend and its processing business. ^[6]

Markets focused far more on the slowdown than the reaffirmed outlook. PayPal shares fell roughly 2.5–2.9% on Wednesday, to just above $61, and remain down about 29% for 2025. ^[7]

PayPal stablecoin (PYUSD) quietly surges

Adding a twist to the story, PayPal’s USD‑backed stablecoin (PYUSD) has quietly gained traction: one recent report notes that PYUSD’s market cap has grown roughly 200% in less than three months, helped by rising scrutiny of larger stablecoin rivals. ^[8]

That growth underscores PayPal’s push into crypto and tokenized payments, but also intersects with a challenge highlighted by other analysts: stablecoins can be much cheaper for cross‑border transfers than traditional PayPal rails, potentially cannibalizing some of its own fee‑heavy flows. ^[9]

JPMorgan downgrades PYPL: what changed?

On December 4, JPMorgan analyst Tien‑Tsin Huang downgraded PayPal from “Overweight” to “Neutral”, cutting his price target from $85 to $70. ^[10]

In his note, Huang:

Argued that PayPal’s turnaround under CEO Alex Chriss is taking longer than expected, even though early moves on product, pricing and monetization have been directionally positive. ^[11]
Suggested that PayPal’s much‑touted potential “Microsoft moment” — when the market finally rewards a fundamental reset — may be delayed. ^[12]
Flagged continuing concerns over sluggish growth in branded checkout, the high‑margin core of the franchise.

Separately, BNP Paribas Exane recently trimmed its price target from $71 to $69 while maintaining a neutral stance, a move MarketBeat reports helped drive a 2.6% slide in PYPL on December 3. ^[13]

Taken together, these calls fit into a broader pattern:

MarketBeat tallies 16 Buy, 18 Hold and 4 Sell ratings, for an overall “Hold” classification and an average target around $82. ^[14]
Finviz/Zacks note that the stock is down 27–29% YTD, yet trades on a forward P/E of about 10–11x versus around 20x for the broader financial transaction services group. ^[15]

In other words: fundamentals have held up better than the share price, but some large banks are no longer willing to wait indefinitely for multiple expansion.

Q3 2025 earnings: a solid beat and raised guidance

The irony in the recent sell‑off is that it comes just weeks after a very respectable Q3. According to Zacks’ breakdown of PayPal’s third‑quarter 2025 results: ^[16]

Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.34 vs. consensus around $1.19–$1.21, up ~12% year‑over‑year.
Revenue: $8.42 billion vs. estimates near $8.21–$8.26 billion, up 7.3% year‑over‑year.
Total Payment Volume (TPV): $458.1 billion, +8.4% reported and +7% FX‑neutral.
Transaction margin dollars: $3.87 billion, +5.9%, or about +7.1% excluding interest on customer balances.
Segment mix:
- Transaction revenues: $7.52 billion (89% of revenue), +6.4%.
- Value‑added services: $895 million (11% of revenue), +14.7%. ^[17]
Geography:
- U.S. revenue: $4.75 billion, +5.2%.
- International revenue: $3.66 billion, +10.1% reported. ^[18]

Operating metrics were more mixed:

Active accounts grew only about 1.4%, to 438 million, underscoring a maturing user base.
Total payment transactions fell about 4.5% to 6.33 billion, and transactions per active account dropped about 6% to 57.6 on a trailing‑12‑month basis. ^[19]

Yet despite those headwinds, profitability and cash generation remained robust:

Operating expenses rose 6.8%, but operating margin expanded to ~18.1%. ^[20]
PayPal generated $2.0B in operating cash flow and $2.3B in free cash flow, and returned about $1.5B via buybacks in the quarter. ^[21]

2025 guidance (still intact after the CFO update)

Management raised full‑year guidance alongside the Q3 beat and has not walked it back, even after the UBS conference remarks: ^[22]

2025 non‑GAAP EPS:$5.35–$5.39, implying 15–16% growth vs. 2024.
Transaction margin dollars:$15.45–$15.55B, up 5–6%.
Non‑transaction opex: up about 3%.
Free cash flow:$6–7B expected, with ~$6B of share repurchases.
Q4 2025 EPS:$1.27–$1.31, with transaction margin dollars guided to rise 2–5%.

On top of that, PayPal has introduced a new quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, or $0.56 annually, for a yield near 0.9% at recent prices and a payout ratio around 11% — still leaving most cash for buybacks and growth. ^[23]

Strategic transformation: AI, OpenAI, Venmo, and “agentic” commerce

Several recent analyses argue that the market is undervaluing PayPal’s strategic pivot, even if the turnaround is bumpy.

Beyond payments: ads, links, “PayPal World” and AI

A November analysis relayed by Finviz/Zacks describes how PayPal is repositioning itself as a broader commerce and data platform, not just a wallet or checkout button: ^[24]

PayPal Ads Manager lets merchants using PayPal run targeted retail‑media style campaigns, turning transaction data into ad revenue.
PayPal Links enables quick peer‑to‑peer and merchant payments via personalized links that can be dropped into chats and messages.
“PayPal World” aims to connect multiple wallets and payment systems (PayPal, Venmo, Mercado Pago, Tenpay Global, India’s UPI, and more) into a single cross‑border network.

The same piece highlights investments in AI‑driven “agentic commerce” — intelligent agents that help consumers discover, compare and buy products — and partnerships with major AI players such as Anthropic, Salesforce and OpenAI. ^[25]

One headline‑grabbing move: PayPal struck a deal so that ChatGPT users will be able to check out using PayPal’s wallet, starting in 2026, potentially making PayPal a default payments layer inside AI‑powered shopping flows. ^[26]

Venmo, BNPL and “branded experiences” as growth engines

Both Zacks and Trefis emphasize that PayPal’s fastest‑growing pillars are: ^[27]

Venmo:
- Q3 2025 revenue is estimated to have risen about 20% YoY, with TPV up ~14%, accelerating vs. Q2.
- Venmo debit card hit a record quarter, with 1 million first‑time users, +40% monthly active accounts, and “Pay with Venmo” MAUs up roughly 25%.
- Venmo is on track to generate about $1.7B in 2025 revenue (ex‑interest), more than 20% above prior levels.
Branded experiences (omni‑channel checkout, tap‑to‑pay, debit):
- TPV in this category grew 8% currency‑neutral, outpacing the 5% online‑only branded checkout growth.
- U.S. branded experiences TPV climbed around 10%, with tap‑to‑pay and debit volumes up roughly 65% year‑over‑year off a smaller base.
BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later):
- Trefis notes that PayPal’s BNPL volume is growing north of 20% and expanding into more markets, adding another long‑term growth leg. ^[28]

Against that, the CFO’s warnings underline a crucial tension: the business mix is shifting toward newer vectors, but the market still prices PayPal heavily off growth in its legacy branded checkout franchise.

Is PayPal stock undervalued? Key valuation calls

A number of independent valuation models now suggest that PYPL may be deeply undervalued, even under modest growth assumptions.

Simply Wall St: ~50% undervalued on intrinsic value

Simply Wall St’s latest update (December 4) labels PayPal “UNDERVALUED”, estimating an intrinsic value around $120 per share versus a market price near $61 — a discount of about 49%. ^[29]

Their models highlight:

Return on equity (ROE) north of 24%, with “excess returns” per share well above the cost of equity.
A current P/E in the low‑teens, versus an estimated “fair” P/E near 18x and a sector average in the mid‑teens. ^[30]

Invezz / TradingView: value stock with bearish technicals

An Invezz analysis framed PayPal as a classic value vs. value‑trap dilemma: ^[31]

Forward P/E: about 11.4, less than half its five‑year average near 25.
EV/EBITDA: roughly 8x, versus a historical average around 17x.
The article notes that PayPal has returned about $5.7B to shareholders via buybacks over the past 12 months and has now added a dividend, strengthening its capital‑return story.

However, from a technical analysis standpoint, Invezz points out that:

The stock has slid from around $93 in late 2024 to the low‑60s,
It now trades below major moving averages and trend indicators, and
The next key support zone sits near $50, while a breakout above about $64.50 would be needed to flip the chart decisively bullish. ^[32]

Trefis & Zacks: cheap versus peers and its own history

Trefis argues that PYPL “could be a good value buy”, pointing out that: ^[33]

The share price is down roughly 27% year‑to‑date,
Its price‑to‑sales multiple is about 32% lower than a year ago,
Margins remain solid, and
The stock trades below the S&P 500’s median P/E despite being a high‑margin, asset‑light business with durable free cash flow.

Zacks, via the Finviz piece, similarly highlights:

A forward P/E of ~10.6x versus about 20.2x for the broader financial transaction services industry,
Much lower multiples than Visa (~25.5x) and Mastercard (~29x). ^[34]

In short: on most fundamental metrics, PayPal screens as cheap, but the market wants to see a convincing acceleration in its core growth engines before re‑rating the stock.

Wall Street forecasts: 12‑month price targets and 2025–2030 projections

12‑month analyst consensus

Investing.com’s consolidated forecast (33 analysts over the past three months) shows: ^[35]

Overall rating:“Buy”.
Breakdown: 18 Buy, 23 Hold, 3 Sell.
Average 12‑month price target:$82.75, implying about +34% upside from the low‑$60s.
Target range:$60 – $120.

MarketBeat’s sample skews a bit more cautious, with its own tally at 16 Buy, 18 Hold, 4 Sell and an average target around $82 — still well above current levels, but paired with a “Hold” label given recent downgrades. ^[36]

24/7 Wall St long‑term model: $81 by 2025, $141 by 2030

A December 2025 forecast from 24/7 Wall St projects a gradual re‑rating of PYPL over the rest of the decade: ^[37]

Median Street one‑year target:$83.10, close to the Investing.com average.
House estimate for end‑2025:$81.15, about +34% from current prices, assuming EPS of $4.93 and a P/E around 16x.
Projected fundamentals (company estimates + their extensions):
- 2025 revenue $33.66B, EPS $4.93
- 2026 revenue $36.05B, EPS $5.44
- 2030 revenue $52.08B, EPS $9.59

From those inputs, 24/7 Wall St derives a 2030 price target of $141, which would represent about 132% upside versus today’s price — effectively a doubling‑plus over five years if things go right.

Of course, these are projections, not guarantees, and assume that PayPal can sustain mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and expand margins while managing competitive and regulatory risks.

Institutional flows and insider activity

Recent filings show mixed but generally supportive institutional behavior:

Invesco Ltd. boosted its stake by 5.5% in Q2, to 10.0 million shares, or about 1.05% of PayPal, worth roughly $746 million at the time. ^[38]
First Trust Advisors LP raised its holdings by 2.9% to about 3.76 million shares (0.39% of the company). ^[39]
In total, roughly 68% of shares are held by institutions and hedge funds. ^[40]

On the other hand, insider activity has been net negative:

Over the last few months, multiple senior executives (including the CAO and an EVP) have sold an aggregate ~36,000 shares, worth around $2.4 million, with no notable open‑market insider buys disclosed in the same period. ^[41]

While insider selling doesn’t automatically signal trouble — it can reflect diversification or personal liquidity needs — the lack of visible buying at these depressed prices is something value‑oriented investors often watch.

Key risks for PayPal stock

Even bullish analysts acknowledge several meaningful risks:

Branded checkout slowdown
- Management now expects Q4 branded checkout growth to be slower than Q3’s 5%, reinforcing concerns that the core profit engine is maturing under pressure from Apple Pay, Google Pay, Adyen, Stripe and others. ^[42]
Macro headwinds and consumer caution
- PayPal has flagged smaller average order values and “softer” discretionary spending, especially in Europe and parts of the U.S., which could weigh on checkout growth and take‑rate‑sensitive categories. ^[43]
Competition and pricing pressure
- Card networks and modern PSPs continue to expand aggressively, while PayPal must simultaneously defend share and maintain margins, potentially limiting how quickly it can cut merchant pricing or reinvest in growth. ^[44]
Regulation and stablecoin uncertainty
- U.S. regulators are sharpening their focus on non‑bank payment apps and digital wallets, with frameworks that could impose additional compliance costs and oversight on large players like PayPal. ^[45]
- PYUSD’s rapid growth is a double‑edged sword: it showcases innovation but also places PayPal squarely into evolving crypto and stablecoin regulatory regimes. ^[46]
Execution risk under the new CEO
- Many of the most optimistic scenarios — “agentic commerce,” AI‑driven ads, stablecoin rails, ChatGPT integration — are multi‑year bets. If execution stumbles or adoption underwhelms, the market may continue to assign a “show‑me” discount, even if EPS grows. ^[47]

Bottom line: buy, sell or hold PayPal stock now?

From an investor’s perspective, PayPal in December 2025 is a classic battleground stock:

The bear case focuses on:
- Slowing growth in branded checkout.
- Intensifying competition from card networks, big tech wallets and low‑cost stablecoins.
- A perception that PayPal’s turnaround is taking longer than promised, prompting downgrades from firms like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas Exane. ^[48]
The bull case emphasizes:
- Solid profitability, double‑digit EPS growth and huge free cash flow that funds buybacks and a growing capital‑return program. ^[49]
- Rapid growth in Venmo, BNPL, branded experiences, stablecoin and AI‑driven initiatives, which could re‑accelerate overall revenue over the next few years. ^[50]
- Valuation models and analyst forecasts that, even after the latest downgrades, still point to 30–35% potential upside over 12 months and much more if 2025–2030 projections play out. ^[51]

Whether PYPL is a buy, sell or hold depends heavily on your time horizon and risk tolerance:

Short‑term traders must contend with negative sentiment, technical downtrends and headline risk from every new macro or competitive data point.
Longer‑term investors who believe in PayPal’s ability to monetize AI, Venmo, stablecoins and cross‑border commerce may view today’s valuation as an attractive entry point — but only if they accept that the path to re‑rating could be volatile and slow.

Nothing here is personal investment advice, and PayPal remains a risk asset: always consider your financial situation, diversification, and, ideally, consult a qualified adviser before making trading decisions.