Paytm (One 97 Communications) Share Price Near 52-Week High: RBI Nod, Q2 FY26 Earnings and Wall Street Upgrades Explained

One 97 Communications Ltd, the parent of Paytm, has staged a powerful comeback on Dalal Street. As of 1 December 2025, the Paytm share price is trading in the mid-₹1,300s, hovering within a couple of percent of its 52‑week high and having delivered around 55% returns in six months and over 40% in a year. ^[1]

Yet, the stock still sits roughly 40% below its IPO price of ₹2,150, keeping the “Can it ever get back to IPO levels?” debate very much alive. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at what’s driving the rally in One 97 Communications, what recent forecasts say about Paytm stock, and which risks still matter.

Paytm share price today: where One 97 Communications stands

Multiple live data providers show One 97 Communications (NSE: PAYTM) trading around ₹1,340–1,360 during the morning session on 1 December 2025, after opening near ₹1,335 and touching an intraday range roughly between ₹1,308 and ₹1,365. ^[3]

Key snapshot:

Current zone: mid‑₹1,300s
52‑week range: roughly ₹650–₹1,360, meaning the stock is within about 2% of its 52‑week high. ^[4]
Market cap: around ₹84,000–86,000 crore, placing Paytm firmly in India’s mid‑cap fintech universe. ^[5]

Trading activity has surged in recent sessions: on 28 November, MarketsMojo data show about 24.5 lakh shares changing hands with value turnover of roughly ₹325 crore, as Paytm outperformed the broader fintech space while closing just shy of its 52‑week peak. ^[6]

From a performance angle, Paytm has:

Rallied about 55% over six months
Gained about 43% over one year
Still remains ~40% below its IPO price of ₹2,150 despite this rebound. ^[7]

That combination – sharp medium‑term gains but a still‑wounded post‑IPO chart – is exactly what’s drawing renewed analyst interest.

Big regulatory catalyst: RBI payment aggregator licence and business transfer

The most important recent news for One 97 Communications is regulatory, not technological.

RBI finally grants full payment aggregator approval

After years of uncertainty, Paytm’s subsidiary Paytm Payments Services Ltd (PPSL) has received final authorisation from the Reserve Bank of India to operate as a payment aggregator under the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007. ^[8]

Key points:

RBI granted in‑principle approval in August 2025. ^[9]
On 26 November 2025, RBI issued the Certificate of Authorisation (CoA), removing previous onboarding curbs and allowing unrestricted merchant acquisition. ^[10]

Previously, RBI had withheld the aggregator licence and imposed restrictions on Paytm’s banking associate Paytm Payments Bank due to compliance issues, leading to a wind‑down of the bank’s operations and a drastic shrinkage of its prepaid instrument base. ^[11]

The final CoA for PPSL doesn’t magically undo all legacy issues, but it materially reduces the regulatory overhang on Paytm’s core merchant payments engine.

Offline merchant payments moved into PPSL

Shortly after the final RBI nod, Paytm announced that it is transferring its offline merchant payments business — QR, Soundbox, point‑of‑sale devices and similar services — into PPSL via a Business Transfer Agreement effective midnight of 30 November 2025. ^[12]

Management’s stated intent:

Consolidate online and offline merchant payments under one regulated entity
Align fully with RBI’s expectations on payment aggregation
Improve operational efficiency and internal synergies ^[13]

In practical terms, investors now have a clearer line of sight: the Paytm brand for consumers and merchants, and PPSL as the regulated aggregator spine beneath it.

Q2 FY26 results: strong revenue, messy bottom line

The quarter ended September 2025 (Q2 FY26) is the latest set of numbers driving analyst models.

Revenue and operating metrics

According to Paytm’s Q2 FY26 earnings release and accompanying blog:

Revenue from operations: ₹2,061 crore, up ~24% year‑on‑year
EBITDA: ₹142 crore with a 7% margin, a sharp turnaround from an EBITDA loss a year earlier
Contribution profit: ₹1,207 crore, up 35% YoY, with a margin near 59%
Cash balance: ₹13,068 crore, giving substantial balance‑sheet flexibility. ^[14]

Segment trends:

Payments services revenue (including related operating revenue) rose about 25% YoY to ₹1,223 crore, with net payment revenue up 28% as credit‑linked products (like card‑on‑UPI and EMI offerings) scale.
GMV (gross merchandise value) across payments grew around 27% YoY to ₹5.67 lakh crore.
Financial services distribution revenue (mainly loans) surged 63% YoY to ₹611 crore, as more consumers and merchants used Paytm‑facilitated lending products. ^[15]

Meanwhile, merchant subscription devices such as QR‑linked terminals and Soundboxes reached 1.37 crore, up 25 lakh over the year — a sign that the physical footprint of the network is still expanding. ^[16]

Profit after tax: small, but with a big asterisk

On the headline line, the quarter looks weak:

Reported PAT: about ₹21 crore, down ~98% from the prior year’s unusually high profit. ^[17]

But that collapse is almost entirely due to a one‑off:

Paytm took a ₹190 crore impairment on its shareholder loan to First Games Technology, after the regulatory crackdown on real‑money gaming. ^[18]

Excluding this impairment:

Underlying PAT would have been around ₹211 crore, which management highlights as its second consecutive profitable quarter and a ~72% QoQ jump from Q1 FY26. ^[19]

The picture that emerges: operations are clearly moving toward profitability, but clean reported earnings are still vulnerable to regulatory and strategic clean‑up costs.

New AI and product bets: Soundbox 2.0 and the Groq partnership

Beyond payments and lending, Paytm is leaning heavily into AI as a differentiator.

AI Soundbox: turning a speaker into a merchant assistant

In October, Paytm launched what it calls India’s first AI‑powered Soundbox at the Global Fintech Festival. The device upgrades the familiar payment‑confirmation speaker into a mini business console: ^[20]

Real‑time summaries of transactions and business insights
Support for 11 Indian languages
Dual screens and dynamic QR codes
Tap‑and‑pay and card‑insert support
4G and Wi‑Fi connectivity with an AI‑token subscription model for more advanced features

The stock closed about 1.1% higher at ₹1,237.50 on launch day, with heavy turnover, suggesting investors liked the story of “hardware + AI + subscriptions” layered on top of the core payments franchise. ^[21]

Groq partnership: AI infrastructure for real‑time decisions

In early November, One 97 Communications also announced a partnership with Groq, a US‑based company that builds ultra‑fast AI inference hardware (“language processing units”). ^[22]

The plan is to use Groq’s technology to:

Speed up transaction risk assessment and fraud detection
Improve customer engagement through smarter recommendations
Enhance internal platform intelligence

Put together, the AI Soundbox and Groq‑powered backend are part of Paytm’s narrative that it’s not just surviving regulation, but actively building new higher‑margin, tech‑heavy revenue streams.

Analysts and models: what is the Paytm stock forecast now?

A flurry of recent research notes and data‑provider updates give a surprisingly wide range of outcomes for Paytm stock.

Goldman Sachs: from neutral to bullish

Global brokerage Goldman Sachs has become the headline catalyst:

Rating: upgraded from Neutral to Buy
New 12‑month target:₹1,570, more than double its prior target of ₹705
Implied upside of roughly 20% from late‑November prices. ^[23]

In its note, Goldman argues that:

The regulatory backdrop is now skewed more to the upside than the downside, after the PA licence and greater clarity from RBI
Paytm can deliver 20–25% annual revenue growth for the next 2–3 years, with financial services growing above 30%
EBITDA margins could more than double over the next 3–4 years as operating leverage kicks in. ^[24]

Scenario targets from Goldman:

Bull case: ₹1,870 per share (about 45% upside from late‑November levels)
Blue‑sky case: ₹2,320 per share (upside of ~79%)
Bear case: ₹930 per share (downside of ~28%). ^[25]

Axis Direct: upside, but IPO price still a long way off

In a televised discussion cited by ET Now, Rajesh Palviya of Axis Direct noted that Paytm’s chart structure has improved after rebounding from lows near ₹300–320, but the IPO price of ₹2,150 remains “far away.” ^[26]

His technical view:

Near‑term upside zone: around ₹1,500–₹1,550
Key support: ₹1,200–₹1,220, where he suggests “buy and accumulate on dips” from a positional standpoint. ^[27]

This is explicitly one broker’s opinion, but it adds to the cluster of targets in the mid‑₹1,500s.

MSCI index inclusion and technical targets

Business Standard reports that MSCI’s November rejig will add One 97 Communications to the MSCI Global Standard Index effective 1 December 2025, alongside Fortis Healthcare, GE Vernova T&D India and Siemens Energy India. Estimated inflows into all four inclusions are in the $252–436 million range. ^[28]

For Paytm specifically, the same analysis suggests:

Current reference price: ~₹1,300
Technical target: ~₹1,370 (roughly 5.4% upside)
Supports: ₹1,281 and ₹1,233; resistance around ₹1,325 and then ₹1,370. ^[29]

Index inclusion often draws passive fund buying and can support liquidity and valuations, at least in the short term.

Aggregated analyst targets: TradingView, AlphaSpread, TipRanks

Different data platforms show slightly different averages, but they broadly cluster around current levels:

TradingView:
- Average 12‑month price target: ₹1,412.55
- Range: ₹780 (low) to ₹2,074 (high). ^[30]
AlphaSpread (compiling “Wall Street” estimates):
- Average target: ₹1,339.6
- Low: ₹712.05 (around 47% downside)
- High: ₹1,732.5 (about 28% upside)
- Interprets the average as roughly 1% below recent prices, i.e. limited consensus upside. ^[31]
TipRanks:
- 12‑month price range in the last year: ₹652.30–₹1,352.05
- Market cap about ₹810.55 billion
- Its analyst summary currently labels Paytm as “undervalued” relative to those targets. ^[32]

Put bluntly: the “smart money” is not unanimous. Some houses see sizeable upside from today’s levels; others think most of the near‑term rerating has already happened.

Technical and derivatives picture: strong momentum, active hedging

Beyond spot price, derivatives activity around One 97 Communications has exploded.

Bullish signal: heavy call option activity

MarketsMojo reports “robust call option activity” in Paytm options expiring on 30 December 2025, concentrated at strikes close to the current spot price: ₹1,300, ₹1,320, ₹1,340 and ₹1,400. ^[33]

Key details:

The ₹1,340 call has seen the heaviest trading, with over 6,000 contracts and turnover around ₹188 crore, and the highest open interest.
Calls at ₹1,320 and ₹1,400 also see substantial volumes, suggesting traders are positioning for further upside or volatility in that band. ^[34]

Combined with the fact that the stock is above its 5‑, 20‑, 50‑, 100‑ and 200‑day moving averages and has gained nearly 7% over three trading sessions, the options data paints a clearly bullish short‑term picture. ^[35]

Counterpoint: active puts and falling delivery volumes

On the flip side, another MarketsMojo note highlights heavy put option activity:

Most active put strike: ₹1,300, again for the 30 December expiry
About 1,428 contracts traded, with turnover near ₹30 crore
Strike currently slightly out‑of‑the‑money with the underlying around ₹1,325. ^[36]

At the same time:

The stock is only ~1.9% below its 52‑week high,
But delivery volumes (shares actually taken into demat, not just traded intraday) were nearly 79% below their five‑day average on 27 November. ^[37]

That combination — strong price action, elevated calls and active puts with thin delivery — usually signals:

Strong speculative interest
Some investors hedging gains or bracing for a pullback after a fast rally

In plain language, the chart is bullish, but a good chunk of the activity is trader‑driven rather than long‑term accumulation.

Fundamentals and valuation: growth engine vs. rich pricing

Even after the earnings turnaround, Paytm remains a growth‑story stock rather than a classic value play.

From platforms like Groww and Screener:

Market cap: roughly ₹84k–86k crore
Price‑to‑book: around 5.5x, implying a rich multiple to its current equity base
Debt: very low (debt‑to‑equity near 0.01); multiple screeners highlight the company as “almost debt‑free.” ^[38]

Earnings‑based metrics are messy:

Trailing P/E varies wildly between providers because recent profits are small and distorted by one‑offs. Some screeners show a very high positive P/E, others a large negative figure based on earlier losses. ^[39]

Operationally, Q2 FY26 shows:

A business growing revenue in the mid‑20s percent annually
Expanding contribution margins and positive EBITDA
But still vulnerable to regulatory shocks, as the First Games impairment demonstrates. ^[40]

For investors, the question is whether the combination of growth, improving profitability, and a cleaned‑up regulatory structure is enough to justify premium multiples.

Key risks that still matter for One 97 Communications

Despite the current optimism, several risk factors remain central to any Paytm stock thesis.

1. Regulatory overhang is reduced, not erased

Paytm Payments Bank faced severe RBI restrictions in 2024, including a ban on new deposits and an eventual wind‑down, after “persistent non‑compliances.” ^[41]
As of late 2025, commentary from regulators and analysts still describes a lingering “regulatory overhang” around the group, even if PPSL’s aggregator licence is a major positive step. ^[42]
India’s Enforcement Directorate has also alleged FEMA violations involving roughly ₹6.11 billion in foreign exchange transactions; Paytm says it is cooperating and that services remain unaffected. ^[43]

Regulation can remain a sudden‑shock risk, especially for entities so deeply embedded in payments and lending.

2. Intense competition in Indian digital payments

Although not a new story, Paytm continues to battle heavyweight rivals like PhonePe and Google Pay for UPI payments, and multiple NBFCs and banks on the lending side. Regulatory‑mandated changes — such as migrating UPI handles after the Paytm Payments Bank restrictions — also forced it to rewire parts of its infrastructure. ^[44]

Competitive pressure could cap margins in the commoditised parts of its business, making higher‑margin AI and financial services execution critical.

3. Profitability quality and one‑off shocks

Q2 FY26’s reported PAT of ₹21 crore was minuscule relative to revenue, largely because of the ₹190‑crore gaming impairment. Without such hits, underlying profitability looks far healthier (~₹211 crore), but investors must assume that new “one‑off” items may appear as the company rationalises its portfolio and adapts to new rules. ^[45]

4. Valuation sensitivity to sentiment

Given how thin GAAP profits still are, Paytm’s valuation is extremely sensitive to changes in sentiment:

Analyst upgrades (Goldman, MSCI inclusion) can drive quick spikes. ^[46]
Any fresh regulatory notice or macro shock to fintech valuations could trigger equally sharp corrections.

That’s why options markets are simultaneously showing bullish call positioning and active downside hedging.

Bottom line: how to read the current Paytm setup

As of 1 December 2025, the Paytm (One 97 Communications) stock story can be summarised as a tug‑of‑war between improving fundamentals and lingering risk:

Positives
- RBI’s final payment aggregator licence for PPSL and the consolidation of offline merchants into a single regulated entity. ^[47]
- Q2 FY26 numbers showing solid revenue growth, expanding contribution margins, positive EBITDA and strong cash reserves. ^[48]
- Product innovation via AI (Soundbox, Groq partnership) that could support higher‑margin revenue streams over time. ^[49]
- Inclusion in the MSCI Global Standard Index and high analyst‑target clusters around the ₹1,400–₹1,600 zone. ^[50]
Negatives / uncertainties
- Regulatory scars from the Paytm Payments Bank episode and ongoing scrutiny, including the ED’s FEMA case. ^[51]
- Highly competitive market dynamics in UPI and digital lending. ^[52]
- Valuation that already bakes in aggressive growth and margin expansion, with consensus targets now clustering near spot. ^[53]

For investors and traders watching One 97 Communications, the stock at current levels is essentially a bet that:

The regulatory chapter truly is moving from “existential risk” to “normal supervision”, and
Paytm can keep compounding revenue in the 20–25% range while steadily widening margins.