NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 08:38 ET — Market closed
- PBF shares ended Friday up 5.2% after the company pushed its Martinez refinery rebuild timeline and issued 2026 throughput guidance.
- Venezuela’s oil exports have stalled after U.S. action, adding a fresh wildcard for crude prices and refiners’ margins.
- Traders watch Monday’s open for oil price signals, geopolitics headlines, and PBF’s Feb. 12 earnings date.
PBF Energy Inc. shares head into Monday’s U.S. session with traders gauging the oil fallout after the United States struck Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro. Trump said Washington would run Venezuela during a transition and that U.S. oil companies would move in, while Maduro is expected to make an initial appearance in Manhattan federal court on Monday, according to a Justice Department official.
The stakes for refiners are immediate. They buy crude oil and sell gasoline and diesel, and the profit gap between those prices — the “crack spread” — is a key yardstick for earnings.
A shock to Venezuelan flows can hit that margin math quickly. Venezuela exports heavy crude, which tends to price differently than lighter U.S. shale oil and can be harder to replace in some refining systems.
PBF ended Friday up 5.2% at $28.53 after it said rebuild activities at its 157,000 barrel-per-day Martinez, California refinery will run into February — later than a previously projected year-end 2025 restart — with planned operating rates expected by early March. The refiner said the plant has operated in an 85,000 to 105,000 bpd range since early in the second quarter of 2025 and issued full-year 2026 throughput guidance of 885,000 to 945,000 bpd across its system, alongside a slate of planned turnarounds, or scheduled maintenance shutdowns. PBF also said insurers paid an unallocated $393.5 million installment in the fourth quarter, bringing 2025 unallocated reimbursements to $893.5 million net of deductibles and retentions.
Venezuela’s oil exports have now stalled, with port captains not authorizing loaded ships to set sail and no tankers loading at the country’s main oil port of Jose on Saturday, according to shipping tracker TankerTrackers.com. Trump said an “oil embargo” on the country was in full effect, and sources said a total suspension of exports — including shipments tied to PDVSA’s partner Chevron — could force production cuts as storage fills.
Separate sources told Reuters that Venezuela’s oil facilities were not damaged by the U.S. action and that PDVSA operations were normal, though exports had already been running lower after Washington announced a blockade in December and seized crude cargoes. Reuters reported Venezuela shipped about 950,000 barrels per day in November, with exports falling to roughly half that level last month amid rising inventories. ( Reuters)
Oil’s macro backdrop remains soft, complicating the geopolitical signal. OPEC+ kept output unchanged on Sunday after oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025 — their steepest annual drop since 2020 — and said the eight members will meet again on Feb. 1. “Oil markets are being driven less by supply–demand fundamentals and more by political uncertainty,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. ( Reuters)
For PBF and its peers, the near-term trade is about margins rather than barrels. A jump in crude without a matching move in gasoline and diesel prices can pinch crack spreads, while a disruption in heavy crude differentials can reshuffle winners among U.S. refiners.
A Reuters commentary said upheaval in Venezuela could eventually reroute barrels back toward U.S. refiners and away from China, which has taken the majority of the country’s crude exports. The piece said Washington is maintaining an embargo on sanctioned Venezuelan crude for now and that restoring output would take years. Rapidan Energy forecasts Venezuelan production could rise by up to 200,000 bpd in the first year after a Maduro ouster, and double to 2 million bpd within a decade in its most optimistic scenario. ( Reuters)
Technically, PBF sits between a $41.47 52-week high and a $13.61 low, Barchart data showed, with near-term resistance around $29.18 and support near $27.51. Barchart also lists analysts’ consensus at “Hold.” ( Barchart)
But the market’s first read on Venezuela could cut either way. A prolonged export freeze or retaliation that lifts crude faster than refined products could pressure refiner margins, while any swift policy shift that unlocks new supply would likely hit different parts of the crude curve. PBF also faces execution risk on the Martinez restart and a 2026 turnaround slate that can temporarily reduce volumes.
Investors will watch oil and product prices when U.S. markets reopen on Jan. 5, and headlines from a U.N. Security Council meeting scheduled for Monday on the U.S. action. PBF is due to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12 and host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
