PBF Energy Inc. stock (NYSE:PBF) is having a rough session on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, with shares trading around $27.13, down roughly 9% on the day after opening near $29.28 and touching an intraday range of about $26.85 to $29.37. [1]
That kind of drop isn’t usually about one single headline. For refiners like PBF, the market often reacts to a messy cocktail of factors—operational incidents, regulatory scrutiny, and the broader crude/product price backdrop. Today’s flow of reporting fits that pattern, especially with fresh attention on PBF-linked refinery developments and a generally softer tone in energy tied to falling oil prices. [2]
Below is a full, up-to-date rundown of what’s circulating as of 16.12.2025, plus the key forecasts and analyst narratives currently shaping the bull vs. bear debate around PBF.
What’s driving PBF Energy stock today
1) Refinery incident spotlight: Torrance coker fire (reported via Reuters)
One of the most market-relevant operational headlines in the last 24 hours: PBF extinguished a fire Sunday morning in a coker unit at its Torrance, California refinery, which Reuters reported based on a notice filed with the California Office of Emergency Services. The Torrance site is described as a 160,000 barrel-per-day Los Angeles-area refinery—so even when an incident is contained, traders tend to re-price the “operational reliability” risk premium quickly. [3]
Why the market cares: the refinery business is brutally sensitive to unplanned downtime. A contained event can still mean inspections, partial constraints, lost high-margin barrels, or cautionary messaging—especially when investors are already laser-focused on PBF’s California exposure.
2) Delaware City refinery and environmental/regulatory headlines (published today)
On the U.S. East Coast, a separate set of headlines hit a different nerve: environmental compliance and regulatory pressure.
A WHYY report published December 16, 2025 says the Delaware City refinery (owned by PBF Energy) has recorded more than 50 violations over the last decade, and it details prior emissions-related incidents (including references to sulphur dioxide and other releases) that have fueled local concerns and calls for stronger enforcement. [4]
Separately, Delaware Online reported today that DNREC (Delaware’s environmental regulator) acted after the Delaware City refinery disclosed a bigger leak than initially reported, and the state’s own DNREC announcement earlier this month indicated requirements around adding fenceline air monitoring/sensors following a volatile compound release (with PBF named as the parent company in the state communication). [5]
Why the market cares: regulatory headlines can translate into monitoring mandates, operational constraints, capital spending requirements, fines, or tighter permitting—and refiners already trade with political/regulatory “option value” embedded in the share price.
3) Macro pressure: crude oil dropping below $60
Even though PBF is not an oil producer, the refiner tape rarely trades in a vacuum. Reuters reported today that crude fell more than $1 to below $60 per barrel, the lowest since May, weighing on broader energy-linked sentiment. [6]
Why it matters for refiners: lower crude can help feedstock costs if product prices hold up, but when crude is falling hard, it often signals demand anxiety—and that can compress refining margins if gasoline/diesel/jet prices slide in tandem.
Institutional activity in today’s coverage: Nomura’s reported position (with a big asterisk)
A MarketBeat item published December 16, 2025 highlights that Nomura Holdings Inc. reported opening a position in PBF Energy, citing 269,645 shares valued around $5.84 million (and characterizing it as roughly 0.23% ownership). [7]
Two important context notes for readers:
- These disclosures are typically based on quarterly filings, so they often reflect holdings as of a prior quarter-end rather than a “just bought today” signal.
- Institutional ownership data sources that aggregate 13F information also reflect this position size in their compiled listings. [8]
The market impact is usually indirect: these stories can influence sentiment (especially in a down tape), but they don’t necessarily explain a same-day move—particularly a near-10% drop.
Analyst forecasts and sentiment: Wall Street is split, and the split is about California
Mizuho upgrade: “Neutral” with a higher target
One of the more influential recent calls in the PBF narrative came from Mizuho, which upgraded PBF to Neutral from Underperform and raised its price target to $38 from $31.
Reporting on the note attributes the thesis to expectations that West Coast product balances tighten in 2026 and remain structurally tight longer-term, while emphasizing PBF’s exposure as the Martinez situation evolves. [9]
Wolfe Research downgrade: Underperform on West Coast margin concerns
On the other side of the ring, Wolfe Research downgraded PBF to Underperform, with coverage summaries citing West Coast margin concerns and a $23 price target. [10]
Where consensus sits right now (as of today’s coverage)
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot (as presented in its December 16 write-up) describes PBF with a consensus leaning negative—reported as “Reduce” with an average target around $29.38—and notes the stock has been trading below recent highs while still paying a dividend. [11]
The core disagreement across these views isn’t mysterious: it’s basically a debate over whether California/West Coast dynamics will be a margin tailwind (structural tightness) or a risk amplifier (regulatory constraints + operational volatility + restart/maintenance execution risk).
Fundamentals check: what PBF has said recently (and why Martinez still matters)
For fundamentals context, PBF’s most recent quarterly reporting (released October 30, 2025) is still the baseline investors are using to frame near-term cash flow expectations.
In that release, PBF reported third quarter 2025 net income of $171.7 million and net income attributable to PBF Energy Inc. of $170.1 million ($1.45 per share), compared with a loss in the year-ago quarter. The company also noted special items including insurance recoveries associated with the February 1, 2025 Martinez refinery fire and a gain on the sale of terminal assets, among other items. [12]
Martinez restart timeline: “planned to occur by year-end 2025”
In the same company communication, PBF stated that after the February 2025 incident, operations were restored in a limited configuration, and the restart of remaining units is planned to occur by year-end 2025, subject to factors like permitting, approvals, and availability of critical equipment/components. [13]
This matters today for two reasons:
- California exposure is central to analyst models. A clean restart can improve utilization and earnings power—but the market tends to discount that until execution is visible.
- The “incident + restart + regulatory environment” combination makes California refineries feel like a high-beta variable inside what is otherwise a margin-driven business.
Dividend: still part of the equity story
PBF also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share in that October update (paid later in November, per the announcement). [14]
Income-focused investors track that yield closely—but in refining, the bigger driver is still volatility in margins and utilization. Dividend support helps sentiment; it rarely “stops the tape” during an operational/regulatory news cycle.
Where the stock sits now: volatility, range, and market cap
As of today, PBF is trading well off its recent highs and remains a mid-cap refiner by market value. One market-cap compilation places PBF around $3.1B as of December 16, 2025. [15]
Data providers also show a wide 52-week span (reflecting how cyclical and headline-driven the refiner space can be), with today’s price action occurring far above the lows but still meaningfully below peak levels seen within the last year. [16]
What to watch next (the practical investor checklist)
Here’s what typically matters most for NYSE:PBF from this point in the storyline—especially after a one-day drop of roughly 9–10%:
Operational updates
- Any follow-through on the Torrance coker fire: whether it’s truly “resume normal operations” quickly vs. lingering constraints. [17]
- Any escalation (or de-escalation) in Delaware City scrutiny: enforcement intensity, monitoring requirements, or operational conditions tied to compliance actions. [18]
California economics
- Whether the market starts to price in the more bullish scenario some analysts have pointed to (tight West Coast balances) or keeps discounting the name due to regulatory/incident risk. [19]
The margin tape
- Refiners are ultimately leveraged to the spread between crude inputs and product outputs; sharp moves in crude (including today’s below-$60 print) can reset sentiment fast. [20]
Positioning and sentiment
- When a stock is already under pressure, even routine institutional/insider headlines can change the tone—though investors should always remember the lag embedded in 13F-style reporting. [21]
Bottom line for December 16, 2025
PBF Energy stock’s slide today looks like the market repricing risk—not just “earnings power.” The most important headlines in the December 16 news cycle cluster around refinery operations (Torrance) and environmental/regulatory scrutiny (Delaware City), arriving in a session where oil’s drop below $60 is already pressuring energy sentiment broadly. [22]
Meanwhile, Wall Street’s forecast picture remains mixed: recent upgrades emphasize a potentially tightening West Coast setup, while downgrades warn that margin and regulatory realities could keep PBF’s valuation capped. [23]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.tradingview.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. whyy.org, 5. www.delawareonline.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.quiverquant.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. ng.investing.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. investors.pbfenergy.com, 13. investors.pbfenergy.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. whyy.org, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.tradingview.com, 23. www.tipranks.com
