NEW YORK, January 9, 2026, 09:28 EST — Premarket
- PBF Energy shares edged higher in premarket trading after a sharp jump in the prior session.
- Piper Sandler and Mizuho lifted their ratings, pointing to tighter U.S. West Coast fuel markets in 2026.
- Investors are watching refinery restart timelines and the Feb. 12 earnings report next.
PBF Energy Inc shares were up 0.4% at $32.27 in premarket trade on Friday, after climbing 13.9% on Thursday. The refiner’s stock is still well below its 52-week high of $41.47, despite the latest pop.
Why it matters now: West Coast fuel markets have tightened as outages drag on and capacity shrinks, pushing price gaps wider and forcing traders to look overseas for barrels. That backdrop matters for PBF because a big slice of its system sits on the U.S. West Coast.
Analysts have started to lean into that squeeze. For PBF, the bet is simple: if West Coast product prices stay firm and the company gets key units back on line, earnings power can change fast.
Piper Sandler on Thursday double upgraded PBF to “Overweight” from “Underweight” and set a $40 price target, trimming it from $42. The broker said it expects West Coast balances to “tighten materially” in 2026 and called PBF one of the most exposed to PADD 5 — the U.S. government’s West Coast petroleum market region — even with delays at the Martinez plant. It also flagged valuation at about 4 times EV/EBITDA, a common yardstick that compares a company’s value with its cash earnings. TipRanks
Mizuho’s Nitin Kumar also moved his rating up to “Neutral” from “Underperform” and raised his price target to $38 from $31, arguing West Coast product balances could turn tighter in 2026 and stay in deficit for years. He said PBF looked “most exposed” as Martinez moves closer to a fuller restart, and he sees room for the shares to re-rate closer to peers. TipRanks
The market backdrop has fed that view. The premium for prompt U.S. West Coast jet fuel to Asia has widened to near a two-year peak, with refinery outages and closures pinching supply; Vortexa’s Ivan Mathews pointed to the extended outage at PBF’s Martinez refinery as a key drag on availability. Reuters also cited repairs at Chevron’s El Segundo unit and the planned wind-down of Valero’s Benicia refinery from February, after Phillips 66 shut its Los Angeles site late last year.
PBF, in an earlier update, said rebuild work at its 157,000-barrel-per-day Martinez, California refinery is now expected to run into February, with planned operating rates by early March, versus a prior expectation for a year-end 2025 restart. “We are committed to the safe restoration of full operations at our Martinez refinery,” CEO Matt Lucey said. The company also disclosed insurers paid a third unallocated installment of $393.5 million in the fourth quarter, bringing 2025 unallocated insurance reimbursements received to $893.5 million net of deductibles and retentions. Securities and Exchange Commission
In the same guidance package, PBF forecast total 2026 throughput of 885,000 to 945,000 barrels per day and projected total operating expenses of $2.45 billion to $2.65 billion. It also laid out a turnaround schedule that includes work at Torrance in the first quarter and a Martinez hydrocracker turnaround in the second quarter.
But the trade is not clean. West Coast tightness can ease if imports rise, outages clear faster than expected, or demand softens — and any slip in Martinez timing would keep a lid on volumes and margins just as the market is pricing in improvement.
Next up is earnings. PBF is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12, with a conference call set for 8:30 a.m. ET, and investors will be listening for margin commentary, Martinez progress and any signal on cash returns.
