PCG Stock Today: PG&E Price, Latest News, Analyst Targets and Wildfire Risk Outlook (December 7, 2025)

Where PCG stock stands on December 7, 2025

PG&E Corporation (NYSE: PCG) closed Friday, December 5, 2025 at $15.16 per share, after trading between $15.16 and $15.38 and opening at $15.31. ^[1]

That leaves PCG:

• Roughly 26–27% below its 52‑week high around $20.6–$20.8 ^[2]
• Above its 52‑week low of $12.97 ^[3]
• Down about 21–25% over the past year depending on the data source and period used. ^[4]

Fundamentally, PCG now trades at:

• Market cap ≈ $33–35 billion
• Trailing P/E ≈ 12.7–12.8
• Forward P/E just under 10
• Dividend about $0.10 per year (yield ~0.6–0.7%), after PG&E resumed payouts. ^[5]

So you’ve got a large regulated utility trading at a discount to many peers on earnings multiples, but with a very non‑boring risk profile.

The latest headlines moving PCG in early December 2025

1. Technical turn: crossing the 200‑day moving average

On December 6, MarketBeat highlighted that PCG crossed above its 200‑day moving average around $15.25, briefly touching an intraday high of $15.38 on heavy volume (~18.9 million shares). The piece notes a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average Wall Street price target around $20.64, alongside a modest dividend and high institutional ownership (about 79%). ^[6]

Technically, that 200‑day line has acted as resistance for much of 2025; Barchart’s analysis points out that PCG has spent most of the year below its 200‑day moving average, only climbing back above its 50‑day line since August. ^[7]

In plain language: the chart finally looks less terrible, but this is happening after a year of underperformance.

2. Underperformance vs utilities – but a recent bounce

A detailed Barchart column this week asks bluntly: “Is PCG underperforming the utilities sector?” The answer is mostly “yes”:

• PCG is down ~21.5% year‑to‑date and 26.8% over 12 months.
• Over the same period, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) is up ~16.9% in 2025 and 6.7% year‑over‑year.
• From its 52‑week high of $21.20 (Dec 2024), PCG is still down more than 25%. ^[8]

However, the last three months have been less ugly: PCG is up about 3.7% over that span, still lagging the utilities ETF but no longer collapsing in slow motion. ^[9]

Barchart also flags a consensus “Strong Buy” rating from 17 analysts and a mean price target of about $21.36, implying roughly 35% upside from the mid‑$15s. ^[10]

3. TD Cowen names PG&E a “2026 Best Idea”

On December 4, TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating on PG&E with a $21 price target and went further, calling the stock its “2026 Best Idea” among utilities. ^[11]

Key points from that note: ^[12]

• PG&E is framed as a “compelling recovery story” after years of wildfire‑related crises.
• Cowen sees electrification and wildfire‑mitigation spending as long‑term growth drivers.
• The firm models roughly 3% revenue growth in 2025 and EPS of about $1.50, consistent with PG&E’s guidance.
• Q3 2025 results:
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.50, beating estimates around $0.43–0.42. ^[13]
  • Revenue of about $6.25–6.3 billion, up ~5% year‑over‑year but slightly below Street expectations (~$6.41 billion). ^[14]
• PG&E has hired Chelle Izzi as Chief Commercial Officer to court large power users such as AI data centers, where load growth can help spread fixed grid costs over more kilowatt‑hours. ^[15]

Cowen also leans heavily on sentiment and politics: they expect friendlier regulatory support from 2026 onward, which they think could give the equity story more room to work. ^[16]

4. Profitability concerns and leverage warnings

Not everyone is in “Best Idea” mode.

A widely circulated piece on Timothy Sykes’ news site from December 2 argues that PCG’s profitability is under pressure and its balance sheet remains heavily levered. It highlights: ^[17]

• Revenue around $24.4 billion with net margins around 10–11% – OK, but not spectacular for a utility carrying this much risk.
• Total liabilities near $103 billion vs. $138 billion in assets, implying a debt‑to‑equity ratio close to 2x.
• Operating cash flow (~$2.85B) is largely offset by high capital spending (~$3B in investing outflows), leaving limited free cash to de‑lever quickly.
• An interest‑coverage ratio barely above 2x, which is manageable but not exactly comfy if rates stay elevated or wildfire costs flare up again.

The article also notes that California regulators are considering cutting the allowed return on equity (ROE) for PG&E — a direct hit to future profitability — and points to recent insider share sales as a psychological overhang, even if they may be for personal reasons. ^[18]

In other words: yes, there’s an upside narrative, but the capital structure is still doing its best impression of a Jenga tower.

5. Conflicting valuation signals: overvalued or undervalued?

A December 6 analysis from Simply Wall St sums up the valuation problem nicely: different models give very different answers. ^[19]

• Dividend Discount Model (DDM):
  • Starts from an annual dividend a bit above $0.25 per share and assumes low‑single‑digit long‑run growth.
  • Under those conservative assumptions, they estimate intrinsic value around $6.85, implying the stock is overvalued by more than 100% versus the current price.
• Price‑to‑Earnings / “Fair PE” approach:
  • PG&E trades at around 12.8× earnings, well below an electric‑utility peer average near 20×. ^[20]
  • Their “fair” PE for PG&E, once you factor in growth and risk, comes out near 26.9×, which would imply meaningful upside from current levels.

That same piece notes that despite a 28% total return over the last five years, PCG is down about 24% in 2025 alone and ~25% over the past year, as investors keep re‑pricing wildfire and regulatory risk. ^[21]

So depending on which spreadsheet you believe, PCG is either a dividend‑discount horror story or a mispriced earnings machine.

6. Fire Victim Trust and the slow unwinding of wildfire liabilities

The Fire Victim Trust, created during PG&E’s bankruptcy, continues to inch toward the finish line. As of a progress update dated October 31, 2025: ^[22]

• 71,787 claimants have determination notices (100%).
• Total awards stand at about $19.57 billion.
• $13.70 billion has already been paid out.
• Roughly 66,013 eligible claimants (99%) have received payments.

In a November 6 letter, the trustee said: ^[23]

• The Trust has reached a settlement in principle with the last PG&E third‑party contractor, but it isn’t finalized yet.
• A California court has set a trial date in June 2026 as a backstop if settlement talks fail.
• The final pro‑rata distribution for victims is expected to be no more than ~1%, reflecting that the Trust has essentially fully deployed its capital, including proceeds from prior sales of PG&E stock and third‑party recoveries.

From a stock‑market perspective, the key point is that PG&E’s direct obligations to the Trust are already fixed under the bankruptcy plan; what’s left is mostly about timing and optics, not new liabilities. But the continued flow of victim‑related news is a constant reminder of why PG&E trades at a discount.

7. New federal tax bill could help wildfire survivors (and indirectly clean up the narrative)

On December 5, 2025, U.S. Senator Alex Padilla and bipartisan co‑sponsors introduced the Protect Innocent Victims of Taxation After Fire Extension Act, a bill that would make permanent the federal rule excluding wildfire settlement payments from taxable income. ^[24]

The earlier version of this law ensured that payments from the PG&E Fire Victim Trust for the 2015 Butte, 2017 North Bay, and 2018 Camp fires were refunded and not taxed, but that tax relief is currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. ^[25]

If this extension passes:

• Survivors would keep more of each settlement dollar.
• It would remove one more piece of political and financial friction around wildfire compensation.

None of this changes PG&E’s core earnings math overnight, but it helps de‑stress one of the most emotionally charged parts of the PG&E story.

Earnings, guidance and the AI‑data‑center angle

Q3 2025: beats on EPS, misses on revenue

PG&E’s Q3 2025 earnings, released October 23, show a company that is growing into its huge capital plan: ^[26]

• GAAP EPS: $0.37 (vs. $0.27 in Q3 2024)
• Non‑GAAP core EPS: $0.50 (vs. $0.37 a year ago)
• Nine‑month 2025 core EPS: $1.14 (vs. $1.06 in 2024)
• Revenue: ≈ $6.25–$6.3 billion, up about 5% year‑over‑year, but a 2–4% miss vs. consensus.
• Wildfire fund expenses: about $86 million, down roughly 38% year‑over‑year. ^[27]

Guidance:

• 2025 core EPS narrowed to $1.49–$1.51. ^[28]
• 2026 core EPS guided to $1.62–$1.66, slightly above Wall Street’s prior expectations. ^[29]

So the earnings trajectory is up and to the right, but revenue growth is modest and heavily tied to regulated rate structures and capex recovery, not explosive “tech‑style” growth.

Massive capex, and why AI suddenly matters to a utility

Reuters and PG&E’s own communications emphasize that the company plans to spend about $73 billion by 2030 on grid and transmission upgrades, including undergrounding power lines to reduce wildfire risk and serving surging electricity demand from AI and crypto data centers. ^[30]

Recent corporate moves fit this story:

• Chelle Izzi was appointed Chief Commercial Officer in November with a mandate that explicitly includes serving large electric customers like AI‑driven data centers, with an eye toward “rate‑reducing load growth” — more electricity sales to dilute fixed costs. ^[31]
• A November poll cited by PG&E found that nearly 90% of Californians support undergrounding power lines, and over 70% want utilities to prioritize undergrounding even over cheaper alternatives. ^[32]

If those data‑center loads materialize in PG&E’s service territory and regulators allow reasonable returns, the capex could translate into a larger, more stable rate base, which is the engine of utility earnings. The open question is how much of that benefit flows to shareholders vs. customers and bondholders.

What analysts and models are forecasting for PCG

Street consensus: “Buy” with 35–40% upside

Across multiple aggregators, the human analyst view on PCG is generally positive:

• StockAnalysis.com: 11 analysts, “Buy” rating, average 12‑month price target $21.05, implying about 38.8% upside from ~$15.16. ^[33]
• TradingView: consensus price target $21.36, with a range of $18–$25. ^[34]
• Barchart: 17 analysts, “Strong Buy” consensus, mean target $21.36, implying roughly 35% upside from their reference price. ^[35]
• Benzinga: 22 analysts, “Overweight” consensus, average target $20.82 with a high of $26 and low of $17; their summary puts recent targets around $20.7, pointing to mid‑20s % upside vs. the then‑current price. ^[36]
• Public.com: as of December 5, 10 analysts, consensus “Buy”. ^[37]

This is the core of the bullish case: mid‑single‑digit EPS growth, heavy capex rolling into rate base, and a stock priced at a modest earnings multiple, with many brokers expecting the shares to trade in the high teens to mid‑20s over the next year or so.

Quant and alternative forecasts: more mixed

Algorithmic and model‑driven forecasts are noticeably less cheerful:

• CoinCodex projects that PCG could drift down 3–5% into early January 2026, with a target around $14.3–$14.7, and labels current sentiment “Bearish”. It notes ~57% green days in the last 30 sessions and about 2.4% volatility, which is not crazy high but above a sleepy utility. ^[38]
• PandaForecast gives a near‑term December 3, 2025 target of $15.45, expecting “positive dynamics” but only modest appreciation, essentially bracketing the current price. ^[39]
• Stockscan goes the other way entirely for the long term: its 2027 average target is $10.21 (range $8.38–$12.05), implying a 35–36% drop from a reference price around $15.89. ^[40]
• A TIKR blog post using a 10× forward P/E–based valuation estimates that PG&E could be worth around $19 per share by 2027, equating to roughly 18–19% total upside or about 8% annualized returns from its input price. ^[41]

So:

• Wall Street analysts mostly see significant upside.
• Model‑based tools range from mild upside to outright downside by 2027.
• None of them are guaranteed to be right; they’re just different lenses on the same messy reality.

Key risks still hanging over PCG

Even with EPS growing and wildfire expenses trending lower, several serious risk buckets remain:

1. Wildfire and climate risk
   • PG&E still faces legacy liabilities from fires like Kincade (2019), Dixie (2021) and Mosquito (2022), with aggregate liabilities in the billions. ^[42]
   • A hotter, drier West Coast climate means the probability of future large fires is non‑trivial, even as undergrounding and hardening reduce some of that risk.
2. Regulatory and political risk
   • California regulators can adjust allowed ROE, rate structures and cost‑recovery timing. A lower ROE, as flagged in the Timothy Sykes piece, directly crimps shareholder returns. ^[43]
   • Political pressure around affordability could limit how much of that $73 billion capex plan earns the returns investors expect. ^[44]
3. Balance‑sheet risk
   • With liabilities around $100+ billion and a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 2x, PG&E has less room for error than a “boring” low‑debt utility. ^[45]
   • The company must thread the needle between funding undergrounding, paying dividends, and keeping credit metrics acceptable.
4. Execution risk on mega‑projects
   • Undergrounding thousands of miles of lines, integrating massive data‑center loads, and modernizing a huge grid is operationally complex.
   • Cost overruns or delays could hurt returns, while safety failures would be catastrophic for both customers and shareholders.

Bull vs. bear: how the market is thinking about PCG right now

Putting all of this together, the market currently seems to be splitting into two camps.

The bullish thesis in brief

Supporters of PCG tend to emphasize:

• Improving fundamentals: EPS is growing, wildfire‑fund expenses are falling, and 2026 guidance is slightly above expectations. ^[46]
• Valuation: A forward P/E under 10 and consensus targets in the low‑20s make the stock look inexpensive versus peers and versus its own capex‑driven growth story. ^[47]
• Electrification tailwinds: AI and data‑center demand, neighborhood electrification and EV adoption could drive sustained load growth in a historically flat‑demand sector. ^[48]
• Legal overhang fading: The Fire Victim Trust is far along, with almost all claims awarded and nearly $13.7B paid; PG&E’s obligations there are fixed. ^[49]

The bearish thesis in brief

Skeptics focus on:

• High leverage and thin coverage: A heavy liability stack, modest interest coverage and capital‑intensive projects leave little margin for error. ^[50]
• Ongoing wildfire and regulatory risk: A single major incident or adverse ruling could wipe out years of earnings. ^[51]
• Dividend math: The current dividend yield under 1% isn’t attractive enough to compensate, in their view, for outsized headline and policy risk. ^[52]
• Model divergence: Quant forecasts pointing to potential downside by 2027 reinforce the idea that the risk‑adjusted payoff may not be as attractive as the raw analyst upside suggests. ^[53]

What to watch next for PCG stock

For anyone tracking PCG into 2026, the most important catalysts are likely to be:

• Q4 2025 and full‑year results – how close PG&E lands to the $1.49–$1.51 EPS guidance and whether it tweaks its 2026 outlook. ^[54]
• Regulatory decisions on ROE and rate cases – these will quietly decide a big chunk of the equity value. ^[55]
• Progress on undergrounding and wildfire metrics – miles placed underground, wildfire‑fund contributions and incident statistics. ^[56]
• Legislative outcomes – whether the wildfire tax‑relief extension passes, which would further stabilize the victim‑compensation narrative. ^[57]
• Credit‑rating and balance‑sheet moves – refinancing, deleveraging plans or large equity issuances could materially change the risk/reward profile.

PCG right now is not a sleepy bond proxy; it’s a highly complex, politically exposed, capital‑intensive utility trying to reinvent its grid at the same time it repairs its reputation. That’s why you see such a dramatic spread between bullish analyst targets, cautious quant models, and a stock price that still behaves like it’s on probation.

References

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