Today: 3 July 2026
Pembina up after AI power project seen as better bet than pipeline
3 July 2026
3 mins read

Pembina up after AI power project seen as better bet than pipeline

TORONTO, July 3, 2026, 10:01 (EDT)

  • Pembina Pipeline Corporation (TSE:PPL; NYSE:PBA) gained about 1.6% in Toronto trading, with the U.S. listing closed for the Independence Day holiday.
  • Pembina’s C$2.1 billion net investment in the Greenlight power project works out to an annual run-rate adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 14.8% based on what’s disclosed.
  • Pembina’s part in the new, bigger West Coast oil pipeline is still up in the air, with no cost estimate out yet.
  • The S&P/TSX Composite started trading up 0.3% at 35,082.35.

Pembina Pipeline Corporation (TSE:PPL; NYSE:PBA) climbed Friday after the company locked in a deal to build a gas-fired power plant driven by data-center demand and announced a conditional commitment to invest in a planned crude pipeline to the West Coast.

The stock was up 1.6% at C$66.89, after closing at C$65.82. Shares stayed under the 52-week high of C$69.42 but held above the 52-week low of C$48.74. That outpaced the S&P/TSX Composite, which opened 0.3% higher.

Market read-throughLatest data
Pembina closed on TSX atC$66.89
Stock moved intraday+1.6%
Trading betweenC$66.00-C$67.30
52-week low and highC$48.74-C$69.42
Company value nowC$38.93 billion
Pays dividend of4.44%
S&P/TSX Composite opened at35,082.35, +0.3%

Shareholders looking for the bigger number won’t find it in the latest oil corridor news. It’s Greenlight. Pembina, Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners, and Kineticor Asset Management signed off on the 932 MW Greenlight Electricity Centre in Alberta. The site will supply a major data-center player under a long-term tolling deal. Pembina said its net investment will be about C$2.1 billion, factoring in land sales. The company expects around C$310 million in annual run-rate adjusted EBITDA from the project, net to Pembina.

The figure implies an EBITDA-to-net-investment ratio near 14.8% before financing, depreciation, tax and any future project cost changes. That’s around 7.0% of Pembina’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range midpoint at C$4.35 billion to C$4.55 billion.

Investor itemGreenlight Electricity CentreWest Coast oil pipeline
StatusFinal investment decision is inAgreement is only non-binding right now
Pembina stake47.5% held10% through building phase, could reach 20% at startup
Disclosed Pembina capitalNet outlay around C$2.1 billion after land salesNo capital numbers out yet
Disclosed Pembina EBITDAYearly run-rate adjusted EBITDA pegged near C$310 millionNo EBITDA numbers shared
TimingTargeting second half of 2030 for in-serviceDefinitive deals eyed for September 2026; Alberta expects build could begin September 2027
Risk guardrailsFixed-price deals cover about 85% of project spendPembina says it won’t put development capital at risk until after final call

Greenlight adds about 150 million cubic feet per day of gas demand for Pembina’s system, or close to 54.8 billion cubic feet each year. Pembina said this demand could back its gas and liquids transportation, fractionation, processing and marketing businesses. The company also said an Alliance Heartland Expansion filing with the Canada Energy Regulator is planned for August 2026, aiming for service in Q4 2029 if the project goes ahead.

Scott Burrows, president and CEO of Pembina, called Greenlight a “first mover” for meeting Alberta data centre energy demand. Chris Ortega, who leads the Americas unit at Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners, said Greenlight will provide dispatchable power “at scale.” Pembina

Pembina gets a bigger political profile in the West Coast pipeline, but not much short-term impact. Reuters reported the new line would move 1 million barrels a day from Alberta to the Pacific, with federal ownership via Trans Mountain and Alberta through Alberta Petroleum Marketing Corporation as the main holders. Pembina would own 10% while it’s being built, with an option to buy another 10% at startup.

The risk is the toughest work on the pipeline hasn’t started. Reuters said no official cost number has been given, funding is still under talks, and approvals hinge on regulatory sign-off, Indigenous deals and a big carbon-capture setup. Prime Minister Mark Carney said, “the time for action is now.” Reuters

Pembina used careful language, saying it can make the final call on any investment for its stake and won’t commit development capital until then. Burrows said the setup gives the company “financial flexibility.” Pembina

Pembina is still trading like a yield play. The company paid a C$0.735 dividend per share on June 30, which went up about 3.5% after the most recent increase. Based on the latest TSX price, that payout gives roughly a 4.4% yield, in line with the stated figure.

The NYSE listing was closed Friday, with the exchange observing Independence Day on July 3 this year. Trading on the TSX continues as usual, with normal hours from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. EDT.

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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