NEW YORK, July 24, 2026, 15:07 EDT — Joby Aviation (JOBY) shares declined after the company’s arrangement with Virgin prompted analysts to question the financial impact and clarify long-term revenue expectations.
Shares of Joby Aviation, Inc. NYSE:JOBY slipped 5.7% to trade at $7.11 in Friday afternoon trading, with U.S. markets still open. The stock was down 7.2% compared to Tuesday’s closing price, prior to the announcement of the UK deal.
The development is significant as Joby described its agreement with Virgin Atlantic as binding and spanning multiple years. However, Wednesday’s announcement did not specify the deal’s value, intended launch timing, service frequency, or how revenue would be shared.
The analysis indicates that investors are chiefly valuing execution. An initial estimate sets Joby’s cash-and-debt-adjusted market value at 2.4 times that of Archer Aviation Inc. NYSE:ACHR.
| Metric | Joby | Archer |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $7.11 | $4.87 |
| Friday move | -5.7% | -4.7% |
| Market value | $6.71 billion | $3.73 billion |
| Cash and short-term investments | $2.47 billion | $1.78 billion |
| Debt | $0.70 billion | $0.08 billion |
| Adjusted market-value proxy* | $4.94 billion | $2.04 billion |
| Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss | $178.5 million | $172.5 million |
| Q1 revenue | $24.2 million | $1.6 million |
Initial calculation: adds market value to debt, subtracts cash and short-term investments. Leases, restricted cash, and additional liabilities are not included. Prices reflect levels as of 14:52 EDT. Balance-sheet information as of March 31.
Joby’s proxy premium stands out, given its adjusted EBITDA loss increased by just 3.5%. Each firm maintained roughly $1.7 billion in net cash.
Revenue complicates direct comparisons. The bulk of Joby’s first-quarter revenue originated from its BLADE passenger operations, while most of Archer’s revenue was derived from leasing activities at Hawthorne Airport.
The agreement in the UK widens distribution. Virgin is set to include Joby flights within its website and app. Joby remains responsible for aircraft operations, route oversight and securing regulatory permissions.
Joby intends to set up hubs at both Heathrow and Manchester. The company stated that travel from Heathrow to central London may take eight minutes, while the Manchester-Leeds route could be completed in around 15 minutes.
Bonny Simi, Joby’s president of operations, projected a cost of $130 to $160 per seat. She described the pricing as “very equivalent” to Uber Black from Uber Technologies, Inc. NYSE:UBER. Business Insider
Gross ticket sales for a fully occupied four-seat cabin are estimated at $520 to $640. The figure is an early projection and does not account for costs, discounts, or partner splits.
Still, this data does not allow for a revenue projection. Joby did not disclose anticipated flight numbers, passenger loads, profit margins or launch date for service.
Friday saw declines across more than just Joby. Archer slipped 4.7%. Eve Holding, Inc. (NYSE:EVEX) was down 4.8%, and Vertical Aerospace Ltd. NYSE:EVTL declined 5.3%.
The average decline among the four stocks stood at 5.1%. The Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ slipped 1.0%.
Joby is set to release its second-quarter results after markets close on August 5. Investors are expected to focus on updates regarding cash burn, certification milestones, and more solid commercial metrics.
Potential risks are certification holdups, significant cash burn, dilution, and slower UK approval processes. The valuation premium might be justified by accelerated testing or secured paid orders.
The UK agreement expands distribution. Investors remain focused on figures.
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