PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) finished Thursday’s session modestly lower even as the broader market rallied on softer-than-expected inflation data—leaving investors heading into Friday’s open focused on a familiar mix of catalysts: Wall Street’s latest price-target moves, PepsiCo’s newly outlined 2026 plan under activist pressure, and fresh legal headlines that could linger as an overhang.
Below is what happened in Thursday’s trade (Dec. 18, 2025), what moved the story after the bell, and what matters most before U.S. markets open on Friday (Dec. 19, 2025).
PepsiCo stock price after the bell: where PEP stands tonight
PepsiCo shares closed at $149.37 on Thursday, down 0.47%, after trading in a relatively tight intraday range ($149.25 to $150.37) on volume of about 6.4 million shares. [1]
In early after-hours indications, the stock was little changed near the $149.37 level, suggesting no major incremental headline hit immediately after the closing bell. [2]
The market backdrop: stocks rose on lighter inflation—PEP didn’t follow
Thursday was broadly constructive for risk appetite. The S&P 500 rose 0.79% to 6,774.76, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.38% to 23,006.36, and the Dow added 0.14% to 47,951.85, according to Reuters’ market wrap. [3]
Part of the lift came from inflation data that was widely interpreted as “lighter than expected,” though the read is complicated by the government shutdown’s disruption of prior data collection. Kiplinger’s recap noted headline CPI was up 0.2% from September to November and 2.7% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2% over the same period and 2.6% year over year—with the outlet emphasizing that October figures weren’t collected, muddying comparisons. [4]
Why this matters for PepsiCo: as a defensive consumer-staples name, PEP often trades as a “rates and reliability” stock—meaning bond yields, inflation expectations, and recession risk perceptions can matter nearly as much as company-specific news.
The biggest PepsiCo headlines investors are digesting right now
1) Citi lifts its PepsiCo price target to $170 (Buy maintained)
One of the most market-relevant analyst updates circulating into tonight: Citigroup raised its price target on PepsiCo to $170 from $165 and kept a Buy rating, according to a Refinitiv item carried by TradingView, with the note pointing to PepsiCo’s 2026 outlook and steps to improve performance—particularly around volumes and North America execution. [5]
For investors, this kind of move matters less as a single “call” and more as a sign of how quickly the Street is re-underwriting PepsiCo’s story after management’s recent strategic reset.
2) PepsiCo’s 2026 reset: growth targets, FX tailwind, and cash-return timing
PepsiCo’s own messaging remains the anchor for most forecasts right now.
In its preliminary 2026 outlook, PepsiCo said it expects:
- Organic revenue growth of 2% to 4%
- Core constant-currency EPS growth of 4% to 6%
- Core effective tax rate of ~22%
- FX translation tailwind of ~1 percentage point to reported net revenue and core EPS growth (based on current spot rates)
- Total cash returns to shareholders to be announced alongside Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 3, 2026 [6]
That Feb. 3 date is also widely referenced as the next major “hard catalyst” on the calendar for PEP (earnings and forward guidance). [7]
3) Elliott’s pressure campaign and the “what changes actually happen” debate
PepsiCo’s strategic overhaul has not been happening in a vacuum.
Reuters previously reported that Elliott unveiled a roughly $4 billion stake and pushed ideas including potentially spinning off (refranchising) bottling, arguing it could improve margins and focus. But Reuters also highlighted that some long-term investors were cautious, warning a separation could take years and be costly in the interim. [8]
That same Reuters report underscores a crucial competitive narrative Elliott has used: PepsiCo’s operating margins versus Coca-Cola’s, alongside the claim that North America beverages has lagged rivals. [9]
PepsiCo has also been repositioning its portfolio toward “better-for-you” trends; Reuters notes the company acquired low-calorie soda Poppi and Mexican-American food maker Siete as part of that effort. [10]
4) Cost cuts, SKU reduction, and supply-chain review in North America
Separately, Reuters reported PepsiCo plans include a review of its North America supply chain, more affordable pricing tiers, and cutting about 20% of its U.S. product lines by early next year, along with manufacturing-line actions—steps tied to the company’s broader push to raise efficiency and improve performance. [11]
This is the operational “meat” investors will be tracking quarter by quarter—because it’s where management’s multi-year plan becomes measurable (volume trends, margin trajectory, service levels, shelf presence).
5) Legal risk: new antitrust class actions alleging price fixing tied to Walmart pricing
A more immediate headline risk comes from litigation.
Reuters reported that two class actions were filed accusing PepsiCo and Coca-Cola of price-fixing that allegedly led to higher prices at retailers other than Walmart, with the suits seeking damages and an injunction. [12]
These cases can take time, and the market often discounts them unless there’s a clear regulatory escalation or material financial exposure. Still, for a consumer staples company prized for stability, “new lawsuit” headlines can dampen momentum—especially in thin year-end liquidity.
What Wall Street’s broader forecast picture looks like tonight
Beyond the Citi note, the consensus backdrop remains “cautiously constructive” rather than euphoric.
- A Nasdaq-hosted Fintel summary pegs the average one-year price target around $160 (with a wide range), implying mid-single-digit upside from early-December levels referenced in that report. [13]
- MarketBeat’s brokerage roundup has similarly framed the consensus as a ‘Hold’ leaning, reflecting a split between the “defensive compounder” camp and skeptics who want to see cleaner proof that volumes and North America execution are turning. [14]
In practice, that means Friday’s tape action is likely to be less about “rating changes” and more about whether there’s any incremental news (filings, follow-up commentary, or new legal/regulatory detail) that changes the probability PepsiCo hits the high end of its 2026 targets.
What to watch before the market opens Friday, Dec. 19, 2025
1) A data-heavy Friday morning: consumer sentiment and housing at 10 a.m. ET
Two scheduled releases highlighted on Kiplinger’s weekly calendar are due at 10:00 a.m. ET Friday:
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (revised)
- Existing home sales (November) [15]
Why PEP investors should care: sentiment and rate-sensitive housing data can shift Treasury yields and equity factor leadership (growth vs. defensives) quickly—especially in the final full week of the year when positioning can be more fragile.
2) “Quadruple witching” day: expect heavier volume and more mechanical flows
Friday, Dec. 19, 2025 is one of the year’s major derivatives-expiration sessions—often called quadruple witching (now effectively “triple witching” in the U.S. because single-stock futures no longer trade domestically), which tends to increase trading volume as contracts expire and positions roll. [16]
That doesn’t guarantee a direction for PepsiCo stock, but it can amplify intraday moves—particularly near the open and into the closing auction.
3) Watch the $150 area and “range trading” signals
PEP has been hovering around the $150 level, and Thursday’s high/low band was narrow. [17]
From a technical context perspective, widely followed moving averages can shape short-term positioning; Barchart’s technical table shows PEP’s major moving averages clustered in the mid-to-high $140s and low $150s. [18]
4) Headline risk checklist: what could actually move PepsiCo before the open
Going into Friday morning, the most “price-sensitive” PepsiCo-specific items to monitor are:
- Any updates or added detail around the antitrust class actions reported by Reuters (new filings, responses, or regulator commentary). [19]
- Additional analyst notes following Citi’s target lift (especially if they reference revised 2026 assumptions). [20]
- Any further developments tied to Elliott’s campaign or board/strategy actions (since the activist narrative has been central to PEP’s December storyline). [21]
Bottom line for Friday’s open
PepsiCo stock ended Thursday lower at $149.37, underperforming a strong tape driven by cooler inflation signals. [22]
Into Friday, the setup for PEP is less about a single “earnings-style” catalyst and more about positioning and headlines: investors are weighing bullish analyst updates (Citi to $170) against the execution risk embedded in PepsiCo’s 2026 operational reset—while watching whether the new litigation story gains traction. [23]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.kiplinger.com, 5. www.tradingview.com, 6. www.pepsico.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.kiplinger.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. finance.yahoo.com, 18. www.barchart.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. finance.yahoo.com, 23. www.tradingview.com
