Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) stock is trying to regain its footing on Thursday, December 18, 2025, after a volatile mid-December stretch that put the spotlight back on three recurring themes for shareholders: the post-COVID revenue reset, looming loss-of-exclusivity (LOE) headwinds, and whether Pfizer’s rebuilt pipeline can drive durable growth later this decade.
As of 18:26 UTC (1:26 p.m. ET) on Dec. 18, Pfizer shares traded around $25.04, essentially flat on the day.
What’s driving Pfizer stock on Dec. 18, 2025
Here are the major, market-moving Pfizer headlines and developments investors are digesting today:
- New financial outlook: Pfizer has revised 2025 revenue guidance to about $62.0 billion and issued 2026 guidance calling for $59.5–$62.5 billion in revenue and $2.80–$3.00 in adjusted diluted EPS. [1]
- Policy pressure is back in focus: A Reuters report today highlights how Medicare patients could see lower out-of-pocket costs in 2026 for some drugs—including Pfizer-partnered Eliquis—as negotiated prices under the Inflation Reduction Act take effect. [2]
- Drug-price deal context: Another Reuters report underscores that Pfizer was among the first companies to reach pricing arrangements with the Trump administration tied to tariff relief, keeping “pricing and margins” in the conversation across big pharma. [3]
- Pipeline catalysts keep coming: Pfizer and Astellas announced positive interim Phase 3 results for PADCEV + Keytruda in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (including event-free survival and overall survival benefits), supporting a “pipeline reload” narrative that bulls argue is still underappreciated. [4]
- Analyst debate is active: Price targets and ratings remain mixed, with at least one notable bearish call this week (Wolfe Research) contrasting with more constructive takes elsewhere. [5]
Pfizer stock price check: stability after a sharp guidance-driven selloff
While Pfizer shares were steady midday Thursday, the week’s tone changed after the company’s 2026 guidance update.
Reuters reported Pfizer warned that the next few years could be “bumpy,” citing lower COVID product sales, price-related pressure, and patent expirations, and noted the stock has fallen sharply from earlier highs as COVID demand faded. [6]
Several market outlets also highlighted the initial selloff after the guidance, reflecting investor sensitivity to any sign that the path back to growth could take longer than hoped. [7]
The core update investors are modeling: Pfizer’s 2026 guidance and 2025 revenue revision
Pfizer’s guidance update is the central “forecast” item behind many of today’s stock notes.
Key figures Pfizer provided
From Pfizer’s guidance release:
- 2025 revenue guidance: revised to approximately $62.0 billion (from the prior range of $61.0–$64.0 billion) [8]
- 2026 revenue guidance:$59.5–$62.5 billion [9]
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance:$2.80–$3.00 [10]
- COVID headwind embedded in 2026 outlook: Pfizer explicitly flagged COVID-19 product revenue expected to be about $1.5 billion lower year over year, and an additional ~$1.5 billion negative impact tied to certain products facing LOE. [11]
- R&D spending outlook: 2026 adjusted R&D expenses guided to $10.5–$11.5 billion, reflecting continued investment (including a PD‑1 x VEGF bispecific program in-licensed from 3SBio and programs from Metsera). [12]
What Wall Street is emphasizing
Reuters reported the high end of Pfizer’s 2026 adjusted EPS range missed the average analyst estimate cited by LSEG, and it also described the company’s view that revenue growth is not expected to return until later in the decade. [13]
That framing helps explain why many “Pfizer stock analysis” takes this week have centered less on whether 2026 is “fine” and more on whether the market can gain confidence in a credible multi-year re-acceleration.
Policy and pricing: why Washington is back in Pfizer stock conversations
Drug pricing—already a long-running overhang for the sector—returned to the center of the news cycle today in two ways that matter for Pfizer investors.
1) Medicare negotiated prices and Eliquis exposure
A Reuters report on Dec. 18 points to analysis suggesting Medicare enrollees could pay materially less out of pocket in 2026 for certain drugs, including Eliquis (co-marketed by Pfizer and Bristol Myers Squibb). The report notes negotiated prices for the first set of drugs are set to take effect next month and discusses how coinsurance dynamics could change in 2026. [14]
For Pfizer shareholders, the direct stock question isn’t simply “patients pay less,” but whether negotiated pricing and formulary dynamics ultimately translate into net price pressure, volume offsets, or both—especially for large, mature products.
2) Drug-price “deals” and margin sensitivity
Reuters also reported that Swiss pharma giants Novartis and Roche backed U.S. efforts to lower drug costs amid talk of a pricing deal, while noting Pfizer and AstraZeneca were earlier deal-makers in this broader push connected to tariff relief. [15]
Separately, Reuters’ Pfizer guidance story explicitly linked a prior Trump administration deal to Medicaid-related discounting and expected margin compression, reinforcing why policy headlines can move sentiment quickly for big-cap drugmakers. [16]
Pipeline and deal flow: the “new Pfizer” investment case hinges on execution
A major reason Pfizer stock still commands attention—even after a long reset from COVID-era highs—is that the company is actively trying to rebase around oncology, immunology, and cardiometabolic R&D, supported by deals and late-stage programs.
Oncology: PADCEV + Keytruda expands the narrative
On Dec. 17, Pfizer and Astellas reported positive interim Phase 3 results (EV‑304 / KEYNOTE‑B15) for PADCEV (enfortumab vedotin) + Keytruda (pembrolizumab) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer, including statistically significant improvements in event-free survival and overall survival as a key secondary endpoint. The companies also indicated the data will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting and discussed with regulators for potential filings. [17]
Why stock traders care: oncology is one of the few areas where a large pharma can still create “step-change” value—if trial data translate into approvals, broader labels, and meaningful revenue.
Breast cancer: Tukysa maintenance data adds to the late-stage cadence
Pfizer also announced detailed Phase 3 HER2CLIMB‑05 results for TUKYSA (tucatinib) in a first-line maintenance combination in HER2+ metastatic breast cancer, including an extension in median progression-free survival and a reduced risk of progression or death. [18]
Obesity/cardiometabolic: building optionality with a GLP‑1 pill
In cardiometabolic disease (a strategic priority Pfizer has repeatedly highlighted), the company announced an exclusive collaboration and license with YaoPharma for YP05002, a Phase 1 oral GLP‑1 receptor agonist candidate for chronic weight management. [19]
Investors should treat early-stage obesity assets as higher-risk optionality, but the market clearly assigns premium valuations to credible obesity pipelines—one reason Pfizer’s deal activity here attracts outsized attention.
Immunology + AI-enabled discovery: Adaptive Biotechnologies partnership
Reuters reported Adaptive Biotechnologies signed non-exclusive deals with Pfizer supporting rheumatoid arthritis and other immune-related research, with potential milestones that could reach up to $890 million for an RA asset, plus a separate data licensing arrangement intended to support Pfizer’s AI-driven discovery efforts. [20]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where Wall Street thinks Pfizer stock goes from here
The sell-side picture remains cautious, but generally implies modest upside from the mid-$20s—paired with plenty of “show me” skepticism.
Consensus: “Hold” with targets clustered in the high-$20s
Aggregated analyst data continues to show a Hold/Neutral-leaning consensus and price targets above the current share price. For example, MarketBeat lists an average target around $28 with a range spanning the mid‑$20s to mid‑$30s (methodologies vary by aggregator). [21]
Recent rating actions and commentary
- Wolfe Research lowered its price target to $24 and kept an Underperform rating, according to an Investing.com report. [22]
- Reuters cited a Bernstein analyst arguing Pfizer stock is unlikely to escape a “mid‑$20s” range until investors are convinced of a clearer growth trajectory. [23]
- Reuters also referenced a JPMorgan view that “core” guidance was slightly above expectations, with potential for upside depending on execution and cost management through the year. [24]
Takeaway: The market is not starving for Pfizer “effort.” It’s waiting for repeatable evidence—quarter after quarter—that new products and pipeline wins can offset COVID declines and patent losses on a timeline the market can underwrite.
Pfizer dividend: yield support remains part of the stock’s appeal
For income-focused investors, Pfizer’s dividend remains a key pillar of the “why own PFE” argument.
On Dec. 12, Pfizer announced its board declared a $0.43 per share first-quarter 2026 dividend, payable March 6, 2026, to shareholders of record Jan. 23, 2026—and noted this would be the company’s 349th consecutive quarterly dividend. [25]
What’s next for Pfizer stock: near-term catalysts to watch
Even if the biggest “headline catalyst” (2026 guidance) is already out, several upcoming events could affect sentiment:
- Next earnings date / results catalyst: Pfizer announced it will host a conference call with analysts on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, alongside the release of its Q4 and full-year 2025 performance report. [26]
- Regulatory and medical-meeting updates: Pfizer and Astellas said EV‑304 results for PADCEV + Keytruda will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting and discussed with regulators for potential filings. [27]
- Drug pricing headlines: With Medicare negotiations and pricing deals in the news, incremental policy developments can quickly feed into models for mature, high-volume brands—especially as 2026 approaches. [28]
The bull case vs. bear case for Pfizer stock right now
Reasons bulls are still engaged
- A steady dividend and “cashflow-style” shareholder base can provide downside support. [29]
- Multiple pipeline shots on goal, including meaningful oncology readouts, keep open the possibility of re-rating if execution improves. [30]
- Management is explicitly investing through the transition, including higher guided R&D in 2026. [31]
What bears point to
- The guidance itself bakes in a difficult 2026, with COVID erosion and LOE impacts highlighted by Pfizer. [32]
- Pricing pressure—through Medicaid, Medicare negotiation dynamics, and broader political scrutiny—remains a persistent margin risk for the sector. [33]
- Several analysts continue to argue the stock may struggle to break meaningfully higher until the market sees a clearer path back to sustainable growth later in the decade. [34]
Bottom line on Dec. 18, 2025
Pfizer stock is steady today, but the bigger story is that 2026 has been framed as another transition year—one where investors will judge Pfizer less on “headline revenue” and more on whether the company’s non‑COVID core, pipeline execution, and cost discipline can build credibility toward the long-promised return to growth later this decade. [35]
References
1. www.pfizer.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.pfizer.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.barrons.com, 8. www.pfizer.com, 9. www.pfizer.com, 10. www.pfizer.com, 11. www.pfizer.com, 12. www.pfizer.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.pfizer.com, 18. www.pfizer.com, 19. www.pfizer.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.pfizer.com, 26. markets.ft.com, 27. www.pfizer.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.pfizer.com, 30. www.pfizer.com, 31. www.pfizer.com, 32. www.pfizer.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com
