Dec. 21, 2025 — Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) ends the week in the spotlight after management laid out a 2026 outlook that undershot some Wall Street expectations, while a string of pipeline updates, partnerships, and policy headlines reshaped the near-term narrative around the long-time pharma bellwether. 1
Pfizer stock last closed at $25.25 on Friday, Dec. 19, with investors weighing whether the company’s cost-cutting and deal-making can offset the twin headwinds of fading COVID-era revenue and a looming patent cliff. 2
Why Pfizer stock is moving: the 2026 forecast reset
The biggest driver of this week’s debate is Pfizer’s full-year 2026 guidance, released Dec. 16. The company guided:
- 2026 revenue:$59.5B–$62.5B
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS:$2.80–$3.00
- 2026 COVID-19 products revenue:~$5.0B (down from ~$6.5B in 2025 guidance)
- 2026 adjusted R&D expense:$10.5B–$11.5B
- 2026 adjusted SI&A expense:$12.5B–$13.5B
- 2026 adjusted effective tax rate:~15% (vs ~11% in 2025 guidance) 3
Pfizer also revised 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $62.0B, while reaffirming 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.00–$3.15. 3
Reuters reported the 2026 EPS range came in below the analyst average estimate tracked by LSEG, and that the company expects roughly $1.5B less revenue in 2026 from COVID products (vs. 2025) and another ~$1.5B hit tied to certain products losing exclusivity. 1
The strategic problem Pfizer is trying to solve
Pfizer’s post-pandemic puzzle is straightforward and brutal: replace a once-in-a-generation COVID windfall while navigating margin pressure, policy risk, and upcoming patent expirations.
Reuters summarized the setup bluntly: Pfizer expects the next few years to be “bumpy,” and it does not expect a return to revenue growth until 2029, as it works to develop and scale new potential blockbusters. 1
That long runway is one reason Pfizer shares have struggled since demand for COVID vaccines and treatments cooled. Reuters noted the stock has fallen sharply from earlier highs and has been under sustained pressure as investors waited for a clearer growth engine. 1
Policy shock: the Trump drug-pricing agreement and margin compression
One of the more unusual—and market-relevant—headlines is Pfizer’s position in the Trump administration’s push to reduce U.S. drug costs.
Reuters reported Pfizer was the first major pharmaceutical company to sign a deal aimed at lowering prices in the Medicaid program in exchange for tariff relief, and that Pfizer warned the Medicaid discounts would contribute to price and margin compression next year. 1
The broader policy wave continued this week as other large pharma companies discussed or approached similar pricing arrangements, according to Reuters. 4
For Pfizer stockholders, this matters because it adds a new variable to 2026 earnings power: even if “core” volumes stabilize, pricing policy can squeeze margins in ways that are hard to model cleanly—especially across a diverse portfolio.
Pipeline and deal flow: Pfizer’s “replace the cliff” playbook
Pfizer is trying to buy time—and buy molecules—while it restructures costs and refocuses R&D.
1) Obesity and cardiometabolic: Metsera + YaoPharma
Pfizer completed its acquisition of Metsera in November, paying $65.60 per share in cash (enterprise value ~$7.0B) plus a contingent value right (CVR) with potential additional payments tied to milestones. Pfizer said the deal brings multiple obesity/cardiometabolic candidates, including MET-097i (a weekly/monthly injectable GLP‑1 receptor agonist “about to begin” Phase 3 development) and MET-233i (a monthly amylin analog candidate in Phase 1). 5
Pfizer also entered an exclusive global collaboration and license agreement with YaoPharma (a Fosun Pharma subsidiary) to develop YP05002, a small-molecule GLP‑1 receptor agonist in Phase 1 for chronic weight management—another signal it wants multiple shots on goal in obesity. 6
2) Immunology + AI drug discovery: Adaptive Biotechnologies partnership
Pfizer is also pushing further into immune-driven discovery platforms. Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed two non-exclusive deals with Pfizer tied to rheumatoid arthritis and other immune-related diseases, with the RA asset worth up to $890M in potential upfront and milestone payments. Pfizer also licensed access to Adaptive’s T‑cell receptor database to support AI model training and drug discovery across disease areas. 7
3) Oncology momentum: PADCEV + Keytruda and TUKYSA updates
Oncology remains the clearest area where Pfizer can point to near-term clinical and commercial catalysts—especially after recent portfolio reshaping.
Pfizer highlighted new data for PADCEV (enfortumab vedotin) plus Keytruda (pembrolizumab) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer, describing it as the first regimen without platinum-based chemotherapy to improve event-free and overall survival when used before and after surgery in cisplatin-eligible patients (per the Dec. 17 release). 8
Earlier, Pfizer announced a U.S. FDA approval for PADCEV plus Keytruda in certain muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients, citing Phase 3 data showing substantial reductions in recurrence/progression/death risk versus surgery alone. 9
Pfizer also reported a positive Phase 3 update for TUKYSA in HER2+ metastatic breast cancer maintenance therapy: the regimen reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 36% versus the control arm in the HER2CLIMB‑05 study, with a manageable safety profile. 10
4) Rare disease: HYMPAVZI Phase 3 results
In hematology, Pfizer said Phase 3 findings for HYMPAVZI (marstacimab)—for hemophilia A or B with inhibitors—were presented at the American Society of Hematology meeting and published in Blood, with the release headline pointing to a 93% reduction in bleeds versus on-demand treatment. 11
Regulatory and legal headlines that investors can’t ignore
Not all stock-moving information is about clinical upside. Sometimes it’s about labels, litigation risk, and trust.
Depo-Provera labeling update: FDA approves meningioma risk warning
In a supplement approval letter, the U.S. FDA approved labeling updates for Depo-Provera CI and Depo-Subq Provera 104 to add information related to meningioma risk in Warnings and Precautions, Patient Counseling Information, and patient materials. 12
STAT reported the label change lands amid ongoing litigation involving claims about long-term use and alleged failure to warn. 13
Texas settlement over Quillivant XR: $41.5 million
Pfizer and supplier Tris Pharma agreed to a $41.5M settlement with Texas over allegations tied to an ADHD medication (Quillivant XR) and Medicaid reimbursement, according to Reuters. 14
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s office announced the settlement and described allegations related to manufacturing/testing and compliance issues; Pfizer has denied wrongdoing in connection with the matter, per Reuters’ reporting. 15
ABRYSVO supplement approval letter
The FDA also issued an approval letter (dated Dec. 19) related to ABRYSVO (Pfizer’s RSV vaccine) in an FDA “approval letter” document, reflecting ongoing lifecycle and regulatory activity around the vaccine franchise. 16
Dividend: Pfizer keeps paying while it rebuilds
Income investors continue to view Pfizer as a yield-heavy large cap while the growth story reloads.
Pfizer’s board declared a $0.43 per share first-quarter 2026 dividend, payable March 6, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Jan. 23, 2026—and the company called it its 349th consecutive quarterly dividend. 17
Wall Street outlook: targets cluster around the high 20s, but conviction is uneven
Analyst sentiment around Pfizer stock is less “panic” and more “prove it.”
MarketWatch framed Pfizer’s 2026 outlook as a downshift but noted analysts who view guidance as conservative, while also emphasizing Pfizer’s multi-year restructuring and deal-driven strategy. 18
This week also brought fresh target tweaks. MarketBeat reported Bank of America lowered its price target from $29 to $28 with a neutral rating, amid the broader guidance reaction. 19
Meanwhile, Reuters quoted Bernstein’s Courtney Breen arguing Pfizer is unlikely to break out of a “mid‑20s” trading range until investors see a convincing growth trajectory—an encapsulation of why Pfizer can look “cheap” for long stretches without rerating. 1
The next major catalyst: Feb. 3, 2026 earnings report and analyst call
The calendar matters. Pfizer announced it will issue its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Performance Report on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, and host a conference call with analysts that morning. 20
For Pfizer stock, that event is likely to sharpen three investor questions:
- Execution on cost savings: are restructuring gains flowing through consistently?
- Visibility into the 2026 “core” business (excluding COVID and upcoming LOE impacts): is underlying demand improving?
- Pipeline credibility: do updates in obesity, oncology, and immunology shorten the timeline to growth?
Bottom line for Pfizer stock on Dec. 21, 2025
As of today, Pfizer stock is caught between credible rebuilding actions (cost cuts, deals, and steady pipeline readouts) and structural headwinds (post-COVID normalization, policy-driven pricing pressure, and the approaching patent cliff).
The bull case is that Pfizer’s acquisitions and partnerships—especially in obesity/cardiometabolic and oncology—create a bridge to the end-of-decade growth target while the dividend compensates investors for waiting. 5
The bear case is that the bridge is long, margins get squeezed by pricing policy, and the market keeps demanding proof of durable growth before awarding Pfizer a higher multiple. 1
