Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) stock is trying to steady itself in late December after a volatile stretch driven by one big theme: the post-COVID hangover is still real, and 2026 is shaping up as another “rebuild” year—even as Pfizer spends aggressively to reload its pipeline.
As of Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, Pfizer shares traded around $25.04, down about 1.8% from the prior close, according to the latest available trade time in the market feed.
What’s making Pfizer stock interesting right now isn’t a single headline—it’s the collision of several:
- Management’s 2026 outlook (revenue and earnings) that came in cautious versus expectations.
- A shifting U.S. drug-pricing landscape, where “most-favored-nation” style agreements are again front and center.
- A real oncology bright spot via Pfizer’s Seagen-linked assets—especially fresh Phase 3 news around PADCEV + Keytruda.
- A high dividend yield that keeps income investors watching closely, even as payout math gets debated.
Below is a detailed, publication-ready roundup of the most current news, forecasts, and analyst takes available as of Dec. 18, 2025.
Pfizer stock today: why PFE is in focus on Dec. 18, 2025
The near-term story of Pfizer stock is largely about expectations reset.
Earlier this week, Pfizer issued its first full-year 2026 guide, and the market response was immediate: several outlets reported the stock fell roughly 3%–5% on the day as investors recalibrated for lower COVID-era cash flows, patent-expiration pressure, and price/margin headwinds. [1]
That selloff matters because Pfizer has already been working from behind: Reuters noted Pfizer shares have fallen more than 50% since early 2023 as demand for COVID vaccines and treatments faded from their peak levels. [2]
So when management says, in effect, “2026 will be bumpy,” Wall Street hears: the turnaround isn’t a straight line.
The core forecast: Pfizer’s 2026 guidance (revenue, EPS, COVID sales, and spending)
Pfizer’s newest company forecast sets the baseline for almost every analyst note you’re seeing today.
In its Dec. 16, 2025 guidance update, Pfizer said it expects:
- 2026 revenue:$59.5B to $62.5B
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS:$2.80 to $3.00
- 2025 revenue (revised): approximately $62.0B (from a prior range of $61.0B–$64.0B)
- 2025 adjusted diluted EPS (reaffirmed):$3.00 to $3.15 [3]
Two specific headwinds were called out as major year-over-year drags embedded in the 2026 revenue guide:
- ~$1.5B lower COVID-19 product revenue versus what Pfizer expects in 2025
- ~$1.5B negative impact from certain products losing exclusivity (LOE) [4]
Pfizer also guided to:
- 2026 adjusted SI&A expenses:$12.5B to $13.5B
- 2026 adjusted R&D expenses:$10.5B to $11.5B
- 2026 effective tax rate (adjusted income): ~15% (vs ~11% expected for 2025) [5]
And here’s the subtle-but-important detail: Pfizer said it still targets about 4% operational revenue growth at the midpoint, excluding both COVID products and LOE-impacted products. In other words, management is arguing that the “core engine” is growing—just not fast enough (yet) to offset the shrinking legacy pieces. [6]
Why Wall Street didn’t love the 2026 outlook
Analysts weren’t shocked that Pfizer is facing pressure. They were focused on two things:
1) The guidance vs. consensus gap
Reuters reported Pfizer’s $2.80–$3.00 adjusted EPS outlook for 2026 came in below Wall Street’s average estimate (Reuters cited an average of $3.05 per share). [7]
2) The patent cliff is no longer a distant problem
Investor’s Business Daily highlighted the risk that Pfizer could lose exclusivity on major products by 2028, naming Eliquis, Xtandi, Ibrance, and Prevnar 13 among key drugs, and cited analysts who expect revenue pressure extending into 2029, with a potential recovery later. [8]
MarketWatch, meanwhile, pointed to expected LOE-driven revenue losses (including impacts tied to specific therapies) and emphasized Pfizer’s ongoing restructuring and portfolio focus. [9]
Washington factor: drug pricing deals are back in the spotlight
A second major “macro” variable overhanging U.S. pharma right now is pricing policy—and Pfizer is directly in that conversation.
On Dec. 18, 2025, Reuters reported that Novartis and Roche voiced support for U.S. efforts to lower drug prices amid talk of a pricing agreement, noting that companies such as Pfizer and AstraZeneca had already reached deals offering price reductions in exchange for tariff relief. [10]
Reuters also reported (Dec. 17) that multiple pharma companies were nearing agreements aligned with a “most-favored-nation” pricing initiative, and specifically noted Pfizer has indicated Medicaid discounts would contribute to price and margin compression next year. [11]
Pfizer itself has framed these agreements as balancing lower patient costs with innovation incentives. In a prior company release describing an agreement with the U.S. government, Pfizer positioned the deal as lowering certain U.S. prices while strengthening domestic biopharma leadership. [12]
For Pfizer stock, the investor takeaway is messy but simple: policy risk hasn’t disappeared—yet clearer rules (even if painful) can reduce uncertainty, and markets often prefer the devil they can model in Excel.
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 18: price targets range from bearish to bullish
As of Dec. 18, the “Street” is not speaking with one voice on Pfizer. Recent analyst notes reflect a market that’s trying to decide whether Pfizer is:
- a value + dividend play temporarily stuck in the mud, or
- a value trap until the pipeline proves it can outgrow LOE and post-COVID declines.
Here are several prominent, recently reported calls:
- BMO Capital Markets maintained a $30 price target, describing Pfizer’s outlook as conservative in a note published Dec. 18. [13]
- Guggenheim reiterated a Buy rating with a $35 target (reported Dec. 17). [14]
- Wolfe Research lowered its target to $24 while maintaining an Underperform view (reported Dec. 17). [15]
- The same Investing.com analyst roundup noted BofA adjusted its target to $27 and kept a Neutral stance, citing faster-than-expected COVID product erosion. [16]
For a broader snapshot, StockAnalysis.com recently summarized the consensus as roughly “Hold” with a 12‑month target around the high-$20s. [17]
That spread—mid-$20s on the low end to mid-$30s on the high end—basically tells you what the market is debating:
- Do cost cuts + new launches + oncology/obesity bets arrive fast enough to offset the downshift?
- Or do LOE and pricing pressure keep results capped for longer than investors want?
The pipeline narrative: why Pfizer keeps paying up for “the next engine”
If Pfizer’s 2026 guide is the cold shower, the pipeline is the warm towel. This is where management wants the market looking.
Big oncology catalyst: PADCEV + Keytruda Phase 3 win in muscle-invasive bladder cancer
On Dec. 17, 2025, Pfizer announced positive topline Phase 3 results for PADCEV (enfortumab vedotin) plus Merck’s Keytruda (pembrolizumab) in cisplatin-eligible muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), reporting statistically significant improvements in event-free survival (primary endpoint) and overall survival (key secondary endpoint)—plus an improved pathologic complete response rate. [18]
Astellas, Pfizer’s partner on PADCEV, also said the results will be discussed with regulators for potential filings and noted the combination has already seen regulatory progress in other MIBC settings. [19]
Why this matters for Pfizer stock:
- PADCEV originated with Seagen and Astellas; Pfizer’s 2023 Seagen acquisition made this kind of oncology momentum strategically central.
- In a world where Pfizer’s legacy cash cows are under pressure, credible late-stage oncology wins can change the long-term narrative from “shrinking” to “re-accelerating.”
Obesity and cardiometabolic: Pfizer widens the funnel again
Pfizer has also been building a new obesity/cardiometabolic footprint:
- Reuters reported Pfizer signed an exclusive agreement with YaoPharma to develop and commercialize YP05002, an experimental GLP‑1 agonist weight-management drug, with $150M upfront and up to $1.94B in milestones plus royalties. [20]
- Reuters noted this comes after Pfizer discontinued two prior GLP‑1 candidates due to liver safety issues, leaving the company looking for a viable path back into the category. [21]
- Pfizer previously announced it completed the acquisition of Metsera in November, adding clinical-stage obesity candidates to its internal medicine portfolio. [22]
Immunology and AI-driven discovery: the Adaptive Biotechnologies partnership
Pfizer also expanded its immunology discovery toolkit. Reuters reported Adaptive Biotechnologies signed two non-exclusive deals with Pfizer worth up to $890 million tied to rheumatoid arthritis and immune-related diseases, including database licensing aimed at improving AI-driven discovery. [23]
Dividend watch: Pfizer keeps the payout—and investors keep asking “is it safe?”
Pfizer’s dividend remains a major part of the bull case for PFE.
On Dec. 12, 2025, Pfizer declared a $0.43 dividend for the first quarter of 2026, payable March 6, 2026, to shareholders of record on Jan. 23, 2026—its 349th consecutive quarterly dividend, per the company. [24]
At around $25 per share, that dividend implies a relatively high yield (annualized $1.72), which helps explain why Pfizer often stays on “income stock” screens even when growth is under pressure. [25]
The tension is that high yields can mean two things:
- the market is rewarding you for patience, or
- the market is pricing in skepticism about growth (and sometimes payout sustainability).
Pfizer hasn’t indicated a dividend cut in its recent releases, but investors will keep tracking cash flows, payout ratios, and the pace of the turnaround.
What investors are watching next: a practical checklist for PFE stock
Here are the catalysts most likely to drive Pfizer stock into early 2026:
Next earnings date
Several market calendars list Pfizer’s next earnings report as Feb. 3, 2026 (often described as “estimated” until confirmed). [26]
Key variables that could move the stock
- COVID franchise trajectory: Pfizer expects COVID product revenue of about $5.0B in 2026 vs about $6.5B in 2025. [27]
- Policy and pricing agreements: ongoing MFN-style negotiations and Medicaid dynamics could affect margins and sentiment. [28]
- LOE timeline clarity: investors will look for how sharply key products erode as exclusivity ends and how effectively new launches replace them. [29]
- Pipeline proof points: especially oncology (Seagen-linked) and obesity/cardiometabolic programs, where Pfizer is spending heavily to rebuild growth. [30]
Bottom line: Pfizer stock’s “2026 problem” is also its “2029 opportunity”
Pfizer stock on Dec. 18, 2025 is basically a referendum on time horizons.
- If you care about the next few quarters, the story is: flat-to-down revenue, pressured EPS, pricing headwinds, and a patent cliff—with management openly calling the path “bumpy.” [31]
- If you care about the next several years, the story is: Pfizer is buying and building (oncology, obesity, immunology) and just delivered a meaningful Phase 3 win in bladder cancer that could support a new standard of care—and potentially a new growth curve. [32]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.pfizer.com, 4. www.pfizer.com, 5. www.pfizer.com, 6. www.pfizer.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investors.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.pfizer.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.pfizer.com, 19. newsroom.astellas.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.pfizer.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.pfizer.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.pfizer.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.investors.com, 30. www.pfizer.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.pfizer.com
