Philip Morris International (PM) Stock: Price Today, Ferrari Deal, 2025 EPS Guidance and Analyst Forecasts (December 5, 2025)

Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) is ending the first week of December on a cautious note. After a sharp pullback on Thursday, the stock is trading around $148 per share on December 5, 2025, roughly 20% below its 52‑week high of $186.69 but still up strongly year‑to‑date. ^[1]

At the same time, the company has just reaffirmed double‑digit earnings growth for 2025, announced a renewed multi‑year partnership with Ferrari that puts its ZYN nicotine pouch brand on Formula 1 cars, and continues to lean hard into its smoke‑free transformation powered by IQOS and ZYN. ^[2]

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analyses as of December 5, 2025, to provide a comprehensive, Google‑News‑ready view of PM stock.

Key Takeaways for PM Stock on December 5, 2025

Latest price: Around $148 per share, after a 2.06% drop on December 4 on elevated volume; four straight down days. ^[3]
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 EPS of $2.24, beating estimates and driven by smoke‑free products, which now account for about 41% of total net revenues and ~42% of gross profit. ^[4]
Guidance: PMI reaffirmed 2025 reported EPS guidance of $7.39–$7.49 and adjusted EPS of $7.46–$7.56, implying 13.5–15.1% growth vs. 2024 on an adjusted basis. ^[5]
Dividend: Annualized dividend of $5.88 per share (quarterly $1.47) after an 8.9% increase in September 2025, implying a ~3.8–4.0% yield at current prices. ^[6]
Analyst view: Wall Street consensus is “Moderate Buy” with 12 Buy and 1 Hold rating and an average 12‑month price target of $189 (about 27–28% upside from ~$148). ^[7]
Strategic catalysts: Renewed Ferrari partnership featuring ZYN branding on Scuderia Ferrari HP F1 cars and continued regulatory wins for smoke‑free products, including FDA authorizations for ZYN and IQOS variants. ^[8]
Risks: Elevated valuation vs. tobacco peers, high payout ratio near or above 100%, regulatory scrutiny on nicotine products, and questions about the sustainability of aggressive ZYN promotions in the U.S. ^[9]

PM Stock Price Today and Recent Performance

As of the U.S. session on December 5, 2025, Philip Morris International shares trade around $148, only slightly changed intraday after Thursday’s sell‑off. Google Finance shows a previous close of $148.58, a day range near $147–$149, and a 52‑week range of $116.12 to $186.69. ^[10]

On December 4, MarketWatch reported that PM:

Fell 2.06% to $148.58,
Logged its fourth consecutive day of losses, and
Traded 8.3 million shares vs. a 50‑day average of 6.6 million, signaling heightened activity as investors reassess the stock. ^[11]

Despite this pullback, performance over 2025 remains strong:

Several performance trackers estimate year‑to‑date total returns of roughly 29–32%, comfortably ahead of the S&P 500. ^[12]

In short, PM is retreating from its June highs but still sits on a sizable YTD gain, which matters when thinking about valuation and the room left for upside.

Q3 2025: Smoke‑Free Products Drive a Blowout Quarter

Philip Morris’ Q3 2025 earnings, released on October 21, set the tone for today’s debate around the stock. Multiple sources summarise the quarter as follows: ^[13]

Adjusted diluted EPS:$2.24, up about 17% year‑on‑year and well above the ~$2.09 consensus.
Net revenues: Around $10.8–10.9 billion, up roughly 9–10% reported and about 5.9% organically, depending on the source and FX treatment.
Smoke‑free portfolio (IQOS, ZYN, VEEV, etc.):
- Volumes up about 16–17%,
- Smoke‑free revenues up ~17–18%,
- Now about 41% of total net revenues and ~42% of gross profit. ^[14]
ZYN nicotine pouches: U.S. offtake/shipments grew roughly 35–40%, boosted by a heavy promotional relaunch after earlier supply and pricing hiccups. ^[15]

However, the market reaction has been far from straightforward:

Reuters and other outlets note that PMI raised its full‑year adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 after Q3, but the stock initially sold off on worries about ZYN’s pricing power and stepped‑up promotional spending (around $100 million). ^[16]
Some investors also focused on inventory normalization in ZYN and IQOS channels, which management flagged as a near‑term headwind. ^[17]

From a fundamentals perspective, though, Q3 confirmed that the profit engine is increasingly smoke‑free: heated tobacco and pouches are lifting margins and growth even as combustible cigarette volumes stagnate.

2025 EPS Guidance Reaffirmed This Week

At the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference on December 2, CEO Jacek Olczak reiterated PMI’s full‑year 2025 outlook. According to PMI’s own press release and multiple newswires, the company now expects: ^[18]

Reported diluted EPS:$7.39–$7.49
Adjusted diluted EPS:$7.46–$7.56
Ex‑currency adjusted EPS:$7.36–$7.46

This implies:

13.5–15.1% growth vs. 2024 adjusted EPS of $6.57, or 12.0–13.5% growth excluding currency. ^[19]

Crucially, the assumptions behind this forecast are unchanged from the Q3 release, suggesting management sees Q3 issues around ZYN promotions as a temporary profitability drag rather than a thesis‑breaker. ^[20]

That combination—double‑digit EPS growth and a confirmed outlook just days ago—is a big part of why some analysts now argue that PM may be mispriced after its recent slide.

Ferrari Partnership and ZYN: Tobacco Harm Reduction Meets Formula 1

One of the most eye‑catching headlines this week is PMI’s expanded alliance with Ferrari:

Ferrari N.V. announced on December 3 that it has renewed and strengthened its multi‑year partnership with PMI. As of January 1, 2026, Philip Morris will become a Premium Partner of Scuderia Ferrari HP and a Series Partner of the Ferrari Challenge Trofeo Pirelli. ^[21]
PMI’s ZYN nicotine pouch brand will appear on Scuderia Ferrari HP Formula 1 car liveries at select races, starting with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on December 7, 2025, bringing high‑profile F1 visibility to a smoke‑free product rather than cigarettes. ^[22]

AllAfrica’s coverage underlines how PMI is using the Ferrari collaboration to position ZYN within a tobacco harm‑reduction narrative, emphasizing: ^[23]

Over 41 million legal‑age consumers using PMI smoke‑free products as of mid‑2025,
Smoke‑free products accounting for 41% of PMI’s total net revenues for the first nine months of 2025,
Investment of over $14 billion since 2008 in smoke‑free R&D, science, and commercialization.

An AI‑generated analysis from AInvest links Thursday’s 2.06% share price decline and 111% volume spike to this Ferrari/ZYN narrative, framing it as a strategic, long‑term branding move that may not immediately translate into earnings but strengthens PMI’s smoke‑free positioning. ^[24]

For investors, the takeaway is that PMI isn’t just buying logo space—it’s reframing its identity around smoke‑free nicotine on one of the world’s biggest adult‑audience stages.

Dividend, Cash Returns and Payout Sustainability

For income‑oriented investors, PM remains a major dividend name:

On September 19, 2025, PMI announced an 8.9% dividend increase to an annualized $5.88 per share, paid as a $1.47 quarterly dividend. ^[25]
Third‑party trackers now list PMI’s annual dividend at $5.88 with a dividend yield around 3.8–4.0% at the current ~$148 share price. ^[26]
PMI has raised its dividend every year since its 2008 spin‑off, for a cumulative increase of more than 200% over that period. ^[27]

The flip side: several analyses flag the payout ratio as notably high:

MarketBeat and others estimate a payout ratio around or just above 100% of current‑year earnings, raising questions about how far and how fast the dividend can grow if earnings don’t keep pace. ^[28]

That said:

PMI’s cash generation remains strong, with Q3 2025 free cash flow around $2.6–2.7 billion and high conversion from earnings to cash. ^[29]

For now, the dividend looks well‑covered by cash, but future increases will likely need sustained EPS growth and disciplined capex/debt management, especially with the company financing acquisitions (like Swedish Match), R&D, and marketing for smoke‑free products.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Broadly Bullish, Valuation Not Cheap

The Street’s view of PM is, on balance, constructive:

MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on 13 analysts:
- 12 Buy,
- 1 Hold,
- 0 Sell. ^[30]
The average 12‑month price target is $189, with a high of $220 and low of $166, implying roughly 27–28% upside from the current ~$148 level. ^[31]

Valuation, though, is not “deep value” in a classic tobacco sense:

Yahoo and several data providers put PMI’s trailing P/E in the low‑ to mid‑20s and forward P/E in the high teens. ^[32]
Other sources that use different EPS definitions show a P/E in the mid‑ to high‑20s, and some note PMI trades well above the global tobacco industry average P/E near the mid‑teens. ^[33]
Enterprise value to revenue and EBITDA ratios (roughly 7x sales and ~16x EBITDA) also point to a premium valuation for the sector. ^[34]

In plain English:
Analysts like the story enough to assign sizeable upside, but they’re doing it on a stock that already commands a premium to peers because of its smoke‑free trajectory. That leaves less room for error if growth slows or regulations bite harder than expected.

Fresh Analyses: Bull Case vs. Mispricing Debate

A cluster of new articles in the last 48 hours tries to answer the same question the market is grappling with: is the recent pullback an opportunity or a warning?

1. “Bull Case Theory” – InsiderMonkey / Recital

An article on InsiderMonkey, published December 4, summarizes a bullish Substack thesis by Anthony Yiu. ^[35]

Key points from that piece:

Q3 2025 showed “recalibration, not regression”: EPS up 17% and smoke‑free at 41% of sales, even while PMI cut organic operating income growth guidance to reflect ZYN promotions. ^[36]
The negative share reaction is framed as the market repricing near‑term margins, not questioning the long‑term smoke‑free strategy.
IQOS, ZYN and VEEV combined give PMI a diversified, global reduced‑risk portfolio that competitors are struggling to match, particularly outside the U.S. ^[37]

The bull case essentially argues that today’s valuation doesn’t fully credit PMI for the durability of its cash flows and the optionality in its smoke‑free platform, especially once promotional spending normalizes.

2. “Mispriced After Guidance Cut and Strong Q3 Results” – Simply Wall St

A widely‑syndicated Simply Wall St piece (via Yahoo Finance and Google Finance) titled “Why Analysts Think Philip Morris Could Be Mispriced After Guidance Cut And Strong Q3 Results” landed around December 4–5. ^[38]

While the full text isn’t trivially accessible, the available snippets and context indicate that the article:

Highlights the paradox of PM’s strong Q3 metrics and reaffirmed full‑year guidance vs. the stock’s recent slide. ^[39]
Notes that most analysts still see upside to price targets, suggesting a disconnect between fundamental momentum and current pricing. ^[40]
Frames this as a potential valuation opportunity, though it also flags familiar risks (regulation, competition in nicotine pouches, and execution on smoke‑free).

3. AInvest: Smoke‑Free Transition as “Strategic Catalyst”

AInvest published “Philip Morris International’s Smoke-Free Transition: A Strategic Catalyst for Long-Term Growth” on December 2, emphasizing: ^[41]

Smoke‑free alternatives outpacing traditional cigarettes in both volume and revenue,
ZYN and IQOS as key growth pillars, backed by regulatory milestones such as FDA authorizations,
The risk that slower‑than‑expected adoption or regulatory setbacks could crimp growth despite heavy R&D and marketing outlays.

Taken together, the consensus among recent analyses seems to be:

Short‑term: Volatile, sentiment‑driven, technically fragile.
Medium‑ to long‑term: Still a credible growth‑plus‑income story, assuming PMI executes on its smoke‑free roadmap.

Institutional Flows: Mixed but Mostly Engaged

Recent 13F‑based news shows institutional investors actively reshuffling their PM exposure rather than abandoning it:

New or increased stakes:
- Mirabella Financial Services LLP opened a $3.05 million position in Q2. ^[42]
- Trek Financial LLC raised its holdings by over 700%, to 42,829 shares worth about $7.8 million. ^[43]
- Edgestream Partners L.P. initiated a stake of 20,770 shares, roughly $3.8 million. ^[44]
Trimmed positions:
- Epoch Investment Partners reduced its position by 24.2%. ^[45]
- 1832 Asset Management cut its stake by 22.9%, selling over 300,000 shares. ^[46]
- Independent Franchise Partners and Triavera Capital also trimmed holdings by 12–16%. ^[47]

Overall:

Institutional ownership sits around 80%, a high level that underscores PM’s status as a core holding in many dividend and defensive portfolios. ^[48]

The flows are mixed—some profit‑taking after a big YTD run, others buying the dip—but they don’t signal a mass institutional exit.

Technical and Quant Views: Short‑Term Caution

Purely technical and quant‑driven services are more cautious in the immediate term:

Intellectia.ai notes that PM has been in a consolidation trend since mid‑November, with 3 buy and 5 sell signals and a recent price drop accompanied by rising volume, which the service flags as a bearish mid‑term signal. ^[49]
StockInvest and similar tools estimate a “fair opening price” around $148.7 for December 5, implying a roughly neutral near‑term bias around current levels. ^[50]

For traders, the message is essentially:

Momentum has cooled after a strong 2025 run;
The stock is off its highs but not “washed out”, and
Short‑term price action is likely to stay sensitive to macro headlines and any fresh regulatory or product news.

Key Risks Investors Are Watching

Even bullish analyses stress that PMI is not a risk‑free cash cow. Major risk themes recurring in recent research include:

Regulatory and Political Risk
- PMI’s future hinges on how regulators in the U.S., EU and elsewhere treat nicotine pouches, heated tobacco and e‑vapor.
- While ZYN and IQOS have secured important FDA authorizations, future rule changes, flavor restrictions, tax hikes or advertising limits could slow category growth or raise compliance costs. ^[51]
ZYN and IQOS Execution
- Heavy promotions and inventory swings suggest management is still fine‑tuning the economics of ZYN’s U.S. relaunch. ^[52]
- Competitive pressure from BAT, Altria‑backed pouches and other entrants could erode share or pricing power over time. ^[53]
Valuation Compression
- If growth expectations moderate or macro risk aversion picks up, PMI’s premium P/E vs. other tobacco names could compress even if earnings hold up, hurting returns. ^[54]
Leverage and Negative Equity
- PMI runs with substantial debt and negative book equity, largely due to buybacks and acquisitions. While this is typical for mature, cash‑rich staples, it reduces balance‑sheet flexibility in a severe downturn. ^[55]
ESG and Long‑Term Demand Trends
- Even with smoke‑free products, many ESG‑oriented funds exclude nicotine exposure altogether, potentially limiting the investor base.
- In the very long run, broader health trends and anti‑nicotine sentiment could cap category growth, even for reduced‑risk formats.

What It All Means for Investors

As of December 5, 2025, the Philip Morris International (PM) story is one of tension between strong fundamentals and cautious sentiment:

Fundamentals: Double‑digit EPS growth, a rising dividend, record smoke‑free profitability and reaffirmed guidance.
Sentiment: A stock down more than 20% from its 52‑week high, with recent selling and elevated volume, plus technical signals pointing to near‑term fragility. ^[56]
Street view: Analysts mostly remain in the Buy camp with ~25–30% implied upside, but they’re underwriting continued execution in ZYN and IQOS and no major regulatory shock. ^[57]

For dividend‑oriented or defensive‑growth investors, PM still offers:

A near‑4% yield,
A long history of annual dividend increases, and
Exposure to a unique, global smoke‑free franchise that many peers can’t easily replicate.

For more conservative or valuation‑sensitive investors, the key questions are:

Whether the current premium multiple is justified given regulatory and competitive risks; and
Whether they’re comfortable with PMI’s high payout ratio and leveraged balance sheet, even if cash flows remain strong.

Either way, PM is a stock that now requires a view on the future of nicotine, not just traditional cigarettes.

Important: This article is for information and general commentary only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Always consider your own objectives and risk tolerance, and consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.