NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 1:42 p.m. ET — Market closed (weekend).
Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) heads into the final full trading week of 2025 with investors balancing two forces: a mechanically driven “ex-dividend” price reset that hit Friday’s tape, and a longer-running debate over how durable PMI’s smoke‑free growth engine—especially ZYN—can be as competition heats up and regulators keep the category under a microscope.
With U.S. equities hovering near record levels into year-end, positioning and headline sensitivity can be amplified by lighter holiday liquidity—conditions that can matter even for defensive, dividend-heavy names like Philip Morris. [1]
PM stock: where it last traded and why the move may look bigger than it is
PM closed Friday, Dec. 26, at $161.05, down $1.59 (-0.98%), after trading between roughly $160.90 and $162.64. The stock’s 52‑week range sits at about $106.44 to $186.69.
That one-day drop is notable—but the context matters: PM went ex-dividend on Dec. 26 for its newly declared $1.47 quarterly dividend. In simple terms, when a stock trades ex-dividend, the share price often adjusts lower by roughly the dividend amount, all else equal. Here, the $1.47 dividend accounts for most of the $1.59 decline. [2]
Peers were mixed on the same session, with Altria (MO) and British American Tobacco (BTI) finishing higher while PM finished lower—another reminder that even within “sin stocks,” flows can diverge around dividends, positioning, and product narratives.
Broader market backdrop: thin trading, record levels, and a rate-cut debate that won’t go away
Friday’s post-Christmas session was a classic low-volume “catch-your-breath” day for Wall Street, with major indexes near record highs and traders watching whether the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” period continues into early January. [3]
Looking into the week ahead, Reuters’ “Week Ahead” preview underscored three key themes that can influence defensive dividend payers like PMI:
- Fed minutes due next week could sharpen expectations for how quickly rates may fall in 2026—a major input into equity valuation and dividend-stock relative appeal. [4]
- Strategists pointed to continued bullish momentum, but also the potential for year-end portfolio adjustments to cause sudden swings in thinner trading. [5]
- The market’s leadership has been rotating at times away from mega-cap tech and into other areas—often a supportive setup for select consumer staples and high-quality dividend names, depending on yields and risk tone. [6]
The last 24–48 hours: PMI headlines are mostly filing-driven
In the past 24–48 hours, PMI-specific headlines have been less about new corporate announcements and more about institutional-position updates tied to SEC filings (commonly 13F-related coverage). Several market trackers published items noting position changes by wealth managers and advisors, including:
- Cwm LLC increasing its position in PM (filing-based coverage). [7]
- Apollon Wealth Management LLC reducing its holdings (filing-based coverage). [8]
- Pacer Advisors Inc. reporting PM shares sold (filing-based coverage). [9]
- Canoe Financial LP reporting PM shares purchased (filing-based coverage). [10]
- HBW Advisory Services LLC reporting PM shares sold (filing-based coverage). [11]
- Bellecapital International Ltd. reporting additional shares acquired (filing-based coverage). [12]
Investors should treat these as backward-looking snapshots (often referencing prior-quarter positioning), not real-time signals. Still, the cluster of filing-related stories highlights that PM remains widely held and actively managed—especially by income-focused portfolios that rebalance around dividends and year-end risk budgets.
Dividend update: what investors should know before the next session
PMI’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share, payable Jan. 14, 2026, with the ex-dividend date on Dec. 26, 2025. [13]
What that means heading into Monday’s open:
- The ex-dividend date has already passed. Buying PM on Monday (Dec. 29) generally means you would not receive the Jan. 14 payment tied to this declaration. [14]
- At Friday’s close, the declared annualized dividend run-rate is $5.88 per share (4 × $1.47). Against $161.05, that implies an annual yield of roughly 3.7% (simple math; yield fluctuates with price). [15]
The core bull-and-bear debate: ZYN growth, pricing, and the cost of defending leadership
While the newest headlines are filing-driven, PMI’s investment narrative continues to revolve around smoke-free execution, with ZYN nicotine pouches and IQOS heated tobacco central to the growth story.
A key moment in 2025 came when PMI’s efforts to accelerate ZYN adoption raised questions about margin and sustainability. In an October Reuters report, CEO Jacek Olczak described certain supports as more “one-off” in nature and said he was not worried about ZYN’s margin profile. The same report noted Bernstein analyst Callum Elliot flagged concerns about the cost of growth even as volumes improved. [16]
Earlier, in July, Reuters reported PM shares fell after ZYN shipments came in below some elevated expectations, even as PMI raised full-year profit guidance. That piece also cited Elliot’s view that the market’s “higher bar” could make results that are merely good feel “not quite good enough.” [17]
For investors watching PM stock into 2026, the practical questions are:
- Can PMI keep ZYN volume growth strong without leaning too heavily on promotions and price actions? [18]
- How quickly can PMI expand ZYN internationally while defending U.S. leadership? [19]
- Will IQOS and other smoke-free categories maintain momentum as regulators scrutinize nicotine products and competitors push harder? [20]
Regulatory watch: nicotine pouches remain in the spotlight
Regulation is a persistent swing factor for tobacco and nicotine names. In December, Reuters reported the FDA authorized marketing of six on! PLUS nicotine pouch products (Altria-linked) through a pilot program, underscoring that competition in pouches is evolving within a formal regulatory framework. Reuters also noted that ZYN products became the first in the nicotine pouch category to receive FDA market authorization earlier in the year. [21]
For PM shareholders, that matters because regulatory outcomes can influence:
- Competitive intensity (more authorized products can broaden shelf competition)
- Category growth (clearer rules can reduce uncertainty for retailers and consumers)
- Litigation and compliance risk (headline risk remains a feature of the space)
Forecasts and Wall Street targets: what analysts are projecting for PM stock
Across major tracking services, the broad takeaway is that analysts see moderate upside from Friday’s closing level—though targets vary by dataset and update cadence:
- TipRanks shows an average 12‑month price target around $185, implying roughly mid‑teens upside from the current level cited on that page. [22]
- MarketBeat lists a consensus price target around $189 (with a range extending higher), similarly implying mid‑teens upside. [23]
- MarketWatch lists an average target price around $184.29 and notes PM is expected to report 2025 earnings on Feb. 5, 2026. [24]
- TradingView also references an analyst-based target around $184.29, with a wide range of estimates (max and min). [25]
On the “named analyst” front, recent note summaries circulating through news aggregators include:
- Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Serotta lowering a price target (while maintaining an Overweight rating) after Q3-related discussion around ZYN investment. [26]
- BofA trimming its PM target price while keeping a Buy rating in a consumer staples year-ahead context. [27]
What to watch before Monday’s open
Because the market is closed now, the next actionable window is Monday’s regular session (with premarket activity before the bell). Here’s what PM investors will likely be tracking into the open:
- Rate expectations and Fed messaging
Reuters’ week-ahead framing puts Fed minutes and the rate-cut path front and center—important for dividend equities’ relative attractiveness versus bonds. [28] - Post ex-dividend normalization
With the Dec. 26 ex-dividend event behind the stock, investors often look for whether shares “fill the gap” over subsequent sessions—though broader market direction typically matters more than the dividend mechanics. [29] - Any weekend-to-Monday regulatory headlines
Nicotine pouches remain a fast-growing category under active regulatory oversight, and competitor authorizations can influence sentiment for category leaders like ZYN. [30] - Calendar positioning and liquidity effects
Year-end flows can create outsized moves—especially if the broader market narrative shifts quickly on rates, rotation, or geopolitics. [31] - The next major PMI catalyst: earnings
Multiple market calendars point to early February for PMI’s next earnings checkpoint, with Feb. 5, 2026 appearing on widely used tracking pages. [32]
Philip Morris enters the next session with a cleaner near-term setup now that the ex-dividend adjustment has passed, but the bigger driver remains unchanged: whether PMI can keep converting its smoke‑free strategy into sustained growth—especially in ZYN—while defending margins and navigating a tightening, more competitive regulatory landscape. [33]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.pmi.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.pmi.com, 14. www.pmi.com, 15. www.pmi.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. www.tradingview.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.tipranks.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.pmi.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.marketwatch.com, 33. www.reuters.com
