Philip Morris International Stock (PM): What to Know Before the Market Opens on Dec. 26, 2025

U.S. markets reopen for a normal trading session on Friday, December 26, 2025, following the Christmas Day closure (and the early close on Dec. 24). ^[1]

For Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM), this particular session matters more than usual because the stock is set to trade ex-dividend on Dec. 26—a detail that can meaningfully influence price action right at the open and shape the “headline” narrative around the stock for income-focused investors. ^[2]

Below is a comprehensive, investor-friendly preview of what to know before the bell, including the latest company fundamentals, key regulatory catalysts (especially around ZYN and IQOS), and what current analyst forecasts imply for PM stock into early 2026.

PM stock snapshot heading into the Dec. 26 open

Philip Morris shares last traded at $162.64 (last trade time recorded on Wednesday, Dec. 24 due to the holiday schedule).

In the final two full sessions before the holiday, PM climbed and remained below its recent peak: MarketWatch data pegged PM’s 52-week high at $186.69 (reached earlier in the year), leaving the stock notably off its highs even after a late-December bounce. ^[3]

Why that matters for the open: Holiday-adjacent sessions can bring thinner liquidity and outsized moves on relatively modest order flow—especially when a stock is simultaneously dealing with a mechanical factor like an ex-dividend date.

The biggest near-term driver: PM goes ex-dividend on Dec. 26

PMI’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.47 per share, payable January 14, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 26, 2025. The company also stated the ex-dividend date is December 26, 2025. ^[4]

A few practical implications investors often miss:

Price mechanics: On the ex-dividend date, stocks often adjust downward by roughly the dividend amount, all else equal, because new buyers are no longer entitled to that upcoming payment.
Eligibility timing: With the market closed on Dec. 25, investors seeking the Jan. 14 dividend generally need to have purchased before the ex-dividend date (i.e., by the prior session). If you’re trading specifically for dividend eligibility, confirm exact cutoffs with your broker.

Quick math (based on the declared dividend): $1.47 quarterly implies $5.88 annualized. PMI’s SEC-filed materials and earnings release also reflect the $1.47 quarterly rate and $5.88 annualized figure. ^[5]

What PMI’s latest results say about the business right now

The most recent full-quarter detail available ahead of Dec. 26 remains PMI’s Q3 2025 reporting package, which emphasized that the company’s “smoke-free” portfolio continues to be the primary growth engine.

1) Smoke-free scale is no longer “small”—it’s material

PMI reported Q3 2025 net revenues of $10.8 billion, with the smoke-free business at $4.4 billion (vs. combustibles at $6.4 billion). ^[6]

The company’s Q3 2025 performance table also showed smoke-free product shipment volume of 46.9 billion units, up 16.6% year over year, while cigarette shipment volume declined 3.2%. ^[7]

2) Guidance: PMI expected solid growth to persist through year-end

In its forward-looking assumptions, PMI projected:

Organic net revenue growth around 6% to 8%
Organic operating income growth around 10% to 11.5%
Smoke-free product volume growth expected at 12% to 14%, partly offset by cigarette volume declines around 2%
No share repurchases in 2025 ^[8]

3) A reporting change is coming in 2026 (and investors should prepare)

PMI also said it plans to implement an evolved organizational model effective Jan. 1, 2026, and expects to realign reportable segments into:

International Smoke-Free
International Combustibles
U.S. ^[9]

This matters for anyone modeling the stock: segment restatements and “new segment” disclosures can create short-term confusion (and sometimes mispricing) as the market recalibrates what “good” looks like under a new lens.

ZYN and the U.S. nicotine pouch market: growth, scrutiny, and competition

PMI’s U.S. growth narrative increasingly runs through Swedish Match—especially ZYN. That’s why several recent headlines (and upcoming events) are worth monitoring before the Dec. 26 open.

FDA panel date is set: Jan. 22, 2026 (a major catalyst risk)

Reuters reported the FDA will convene a panel on January 22, 2026 to review Swedish Match USA’s request to market certain ZYN nicotine pouches as lower-risk alternatives to cigarettes via a modified-risk pathway. ^[10]

Why investors care: If PMI ultimately secures expanded modified-risk marketing permissions for ZYN, it could strengthen the brand’s moat and messaging—though any regulatory outcome could also come with restrictions, caveats, or headline risk.

Competition is heating up: Altria-linked “on! PLUS” wins FDA authorization

On Dec. 19, 2025, Reuters reported the FDA authorized the marketing of six “on! PLUS” nicotine pouch products, tied to an Altria joint venture—an important signal that the competitive field in pouches is widening. ^[11]

Stock relevance: More authorized products can mean more shelf competition, which may pressure pricing or raise marketing spend—especially if rivals compete aggressively on price-per-can or promotions.

PMI itself highlighted that ZYN growth can come with margin trade-offs

In an Oct. 21, 2025 Reuters report focused on PMI’s Q3 update, the company described promotional and pricing actions around ZYN that, according to Reuters, cost about $100 million in the quarter. Reuters also reported U.S. ZYN shipments rose 37% year over year in Q3 2025 to 205 million cans. ^[12]

Investor takeaway: The market loves growth—but it will also punish signs that growth is “bought” via discounting or unusually heavy promotion. PM’s long-term bull thesis looks strongest when ZYN growth and smoke-free expansion translate into durable profit growth, not just volume.

IQOS in the U.S.: still a major upside lever, still FDA-dependent

PMI’s heated tobacco platform IQOS remains central to its “smoke-free future” strategy—and the U.S. is a key battleground.

Reuters previously reported PMI began selling IQOS in Austin, Texas, and noted PMI is pursuing a limited roll-out of an older version while the FDA weighs its application for the newer iteration, ILUMA. ^[13]

Separately, the FDA’s Modified Risk Tobacco Products page lists IQOS MRTP renewals as pending, reflecting an ongoing regulatory process around the claims and marketing framework for IQOS in the U.S. ^[14]

Bottom line: For PM stock, IQOS is both:

An upside narrative (U.S. expansion and smoke-free adoption), and
A regulatory timing risk (approvals, renewals, and limits on permissible claims).

Europe regulation: taxes and marketing claims are in focus

Regulatory and policy changes outside the U.S. can still matter materially for PMI, given its global footprint.

EU tobacco taxation revision could reshape economics over time

A European Parliamentary Research Service briefing notes that on July 16, 2025, the European Commission proposed a revision to the Tobacco Taxation Directive with the aim of extending scope to “new product types.” The briefing explicitly references products such as heated tobacco products and nicotine pouches among the evolving product landscape, and discusses a proposed application timeline beginning later in the decade. ^[15]

Italy scrutiny: “smoke-free” marketing language under investigation

Reuters reported in October 2025 that Italy’s antitrust regulator opened an investigation into Philip Morris Italia over alleged unfair commercial practices related to smokeless products, including the use of terms like “smoke-free.” PMI said it acted in compliance and would cooperate. ^[16]

What that means for investors: Even when demand trends look favorable, the way products are marketed—especially in highly regulated categories—can create legal and reputational risk that occasionally spills into valuation.

Analyst forecasts and price targets: what Wall Street implies (and what it doesn’t)

Analyst views on PM are broadly constructive, but price targets vary widely depending on assumptions for:

U.S. nicotine pouch growth and competitive pricing,
IQOS/ILUMA regulatory outcomes,
FX impacts and global pricing power,
The pace of cigarette volume declines.

A few widely cited consensus snapshots include:

StockAnalysis lists an average price target around $190.44 (with targets ranging roughly $166 to $220), paired with a “Strong Buy” consensus among its tracked analysts. ^[17]
TipRanks shows an average target around $185, with a “Strong Buy” consensus among the analysts it aggregates. ^[18]
Fintel similarly aggregates targets, showing an average in the mid-$180s range with a wider low/high spread. ^[19]

How to interpret this going into Dec. 26:
These targets are not “tomorrow’s prediction.” They’re typically 12-month views—and they’ll swing with regulatory headlines (FDA), competitive intensity (pouches), and how investors judge the quality of smoke-free profit growth.

The next major calendar date after the ex-dividend open: earnings in early February

Looking beyond the Dec. 26 session, the next major scheduled catalyst is PMI’s next earnings report, which MarketBeat estimates for Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026, based on historical reporting patterns. ^[20]

Between now and then, the stock may trade on:

Regulatory newsflow (especially FDA-related),
Any updates on U.S. expansion strategy,
Broader market risk appetite (consumer staples vs. growth rotations),
FX and macro headline shifts.

Bull case vs. bear case: the PM debate in plain English

Bull case: why investors stay constructive

Smoke-free momentum is translating into real scale (revenues and volumes), not just a long-term promise. ^[21]
ZYN remains a U.S. growth engine, with a potentially important FDA panel catalyst in January 2026. ^[22]
Dividend consistency remains a core part of the PM story, and the Dec. 26 ex-dividend date may keep income investors focused on the name. ^[23]

Bear case: why skeptics stay cautious

Growth in pouches may come with higher promotions and competitive responses, potentially squeezing margins. ^[24]
Regulatory scrutiny remains a constant: modified-risk claims, marketing language, and product authorization processes can all shift sentiment quickly. ^[25]
Europe-wide policy shifts (like taxation frameworks for newer nicotine categories) could alter pricing dynamics over time. ^[26]

What to watch specifically at the Dec. 26 open

Ex-dividend price action
Even if nothing “fundamental” changed overnight, the ex-dividend designation can mechanically influence opening prints and intraday narratives. ^[27]
Holiday liquidity effects
With Dec. 24’s early close and the Dec. 25 holiday, the first full session back can see unusual flows. ^[28]
Any late-breaking FDA/regulatory headlines
The ZYN MRTP panel is scheduled for January, and nicotine pouch competition is actively evolving—so regulators and headlines matter. ^[29]

Bottom line

Before the market opens on Dec. 26, 2025, PM stock is best understood through three lenses:

Income mechanics (ex-dividend today): PMI says PM trades ex-dividend on Dec. 26 for the $1.47 quarterly payout. ^[30]
Smoke-free execution (ZYN + IQOS): Strong smoke-free growth remains the central investment narrative—but competition and regulatory scrutiny are rising alongside demand. ^[31]
Catalyst calendar: The next big moments include the FDA’s January 22, 2026 panel (ZYN modified-risk claim review) and PMI’s early February 2026 earnings window. ^[32]

As always, this is not investment advice—PM is a large-cap, globally exposed consumer staples stock operating in a heavily regulated category, and short-term moves can be driven as much by policy headlines and positioning as by quarterly fundamentals.