Planet Labs PBC stock is back in the spotlight after the Earth‑imaging company posted a sharp revenue jump, raised its full‑year outlook and attracted fresh analyst commentary on December 11, 2025. As of late morning on December 11, Planet Labs shares were trading around $12.94 on the NYSE.
The move follows a series of catalysts: a strong fiscal third‑quarter 2026 earnings report, new high‑resolution “Pelican” satellites entering service, and a wave of updated price targets that reveal how divided Wall Street remains on the stock’s valuation and risk profile.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
How Planet Labs Stock Is Trading After Earnings
Planet Labs has had a volatile reaction to its latest results. Different data providers show the stock trading in the mid‑teens in early pre‑market and extended trading — for example, one feed shows a recent high around $15.50, up nearly 20% on the day, and a one‑year gain above 230%. [1]
At the same time, Planet Labs’ quote from a real‑time market feed shows the stock around $12.94 in regular trading on December 11, 2025, implying investors have already started to digest and partially fade the initial post‑earnings spike.
Recent coverage also notes that:
- The stock has gained more than 200% year‑to‑date in 2025, even before the latest report. [2]
- The name is unusually volatile, with average post‑earnings moves near 30% over the past four quarters and short interest in the low‑teens as a percentage of float, well above the market average. [3]
In short: Planet Labs is behaving like a classic high‑growth, high‑expectation story — big moves both up and down around each major update.
Q3 FY26 Results: 33% Revenue Growth and a Fourth Quarter of EBITDA Profit
Planet Labs reported results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (quarter ended in October 2025) after the close on December 10, 2025. The headline numbers were clearly ahead of expectations:
- Revenue: about $81.3 million, up roughly 33% year‑over‑year, and above consensus estimates near $72–73 million. [4]
- Earnings: break‑even earnings per share on an adjusted basis, versus an expected loss of around $0.03 per share. [5]
- Non‑GAAP gross margin: about 60% for the quarter, down modestly from the mid‑60s a year ago as the company invests in satellite services and AI‑enabled solutions. [6]
- Adjusted EBITDA: about $5.6 million, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability. [7]
The balance‑sheet and backlog metrics were also striking:
- Backlog: approximately $734.5 million, up 216% year‑over‑year.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): about $672 million, up 361% versus the prior year. [8]
- Cash and equivalents: around $677 million at quarter‑end, bolstered by $460 million of convertible debt raised in September. [9]
- Free cash flow: positive for the third quarter in a row, according to earnings‑call highlights. [10]
Operationally, Planet Labs continues to lean heavily on government customers:
- Defense and intelligence revenue grew by 70–72% year‑over‑year, helped by contracts with agencies such as the U.S. National Geospatial‑Intelligence Agency (NGA) and NATO. [11]
- The commercial segment, by contrast, declined year‑over‑year, reflecting management’s deliberate focus on larger, longer‑term government deals. [12]
The company ended the quarter with about 910 customers, net dollar retention of 109% and “win‑back” retention of 110%, reinforcing the view that once customers embed Planet’s data into their workflows, churn is relatively low. [13]
Updated Guidance: Higher FY26 Targets and a Path to Cash Flow
Alongside the Q3 print, Planet Labs raised its guidance for the current fiscal year:
- Q4 FY26 revenue: guided to $76–80 million, roughly 6% above prior consensus at the midpoint. [14]
- Full‑year FY26 revenue: raised to $297–301 million, from a prior outlook in the high‑$280 million range. [15]
- Full‑year adjusted EBITDA: now expected to be $6–8 million, implying Planet aims to stay profitable on an adjusted basis for the rest of the year. [16]
Needham’s post‑earnings note highlights management’s expectation to achieve positive free cash flow in fiscal 2026 and 2027, while pushing ahead with new satellite constellations. [17]
That combination—fast revenue growth, rising backlog, and a credible glide path to sustained positive cash generation—is one of the main reasons bullish analysts argue Planet Labs is moving out of the “experimental” phase and into something closer to a scaled growth platform.
Pelican‑5 and Pelican‑6: New Satellites, Higher Resolution and On‑Orbit AI
Fundamentally, Planet Labs is still a satellite company: its ability to grow depends on expanding and upgrading its constellation. The latest step in that story is the Pelican line of high‑resolution satellites.
Recent company releases show that:
- Pelican‑5 and Pelican‑6 launched on SpaceX’s Transporter‑15 rideshare mission on November 28, 2025, alongside 36 new SuperDove satellites. [18]
- On December 9, Planet shared “first light” imagery from Pelican‑6, capturing Lhasa Gonggar International Airport from about 519 km altitude just a day after launch. [19]
- The first‑generation Pelican satellites deliver roughly 50 cm resolution across six multispectral bands, are optimized for cross‑sensor analysis and carry NVIDIA Jetson AI chips for on‑orbit edge computing. Future iterations are designed to reach 30 cm‑class resolution, bringing Planet closer to the highest commercial imaging standards. [20]
A separate analysis from Simply Wall St frames the Pelican launches as critical to Planet’s push toward higher‑value, AI‑ready “solutions”—packages that bundle imagery, analytics and monitoring into larger contracts. But it also notes that these investments deepen the tension between heavy capital spending and the still‑evolving path to strong free cash flow. [21]
Other strategic moves highlighted in recent coverage include:
- Expansion of a Berlin manufacturing hub to support faster, cheaper satellite production. [22]
- Integration of Bedrock and other AI/analytics capabilities to enrich Planet’s imagery products, particularly for defense and environmental monitoring customers. [23]
Taken together, Planet is clearly positioning itself not just as a satellite operator, but as an AI‑enabled geospatial intelligence platform.
Fresh Analyst Calls on December 11: Needham vs. Citizens
The morning after earnings, two high‑profile analyst notes captured how divided professional opinion is on Planet Labs stock.
Needham: Price Target Raised to $22, Still a Buy
Needham raised its price target from $16 to $22 and reiterated a Buy rating on December 11. [24]
Key points from the note:
- Q3 revenue beat consensus by roughly 13%, and EPS came in $0.03 ahead of expectations. [25]
- Revenue growth accelerated to 33% year‑over‑year, the fastest in about 11 quarters, driven partly by early revenue from a large JSAT satellite services contract. [26]
- Defense & Intelligence revenue grew over 70%, with strength across regions. [27]
- Management’s targets imply Planet could reach at least a “Rule of 30” (growth + margin ≥ 30%) in fiscal 2027 and “Rule of 40” in fiscal 2028 if execution continues. [28]
Needham’s stance is that execution has been “vastly impressive,” and that the combination of growth, backlog and cash on hand justifies a premium multiple.
Citizens: Market Perform and Concerns Over Long‑Term Strategy
In contrast, Citizens reiterated a Market Perform rating on the same day, even as it acknowledged Planet’s strong recent quarter. [29]
Citizens’ report makes several cautionary arguments:
- Despite a roughly 227% 12‑month return, the firm says Planet looks significantly overvalued versus its internal fair‑value models. [30]
- Recent positive free cash flow is seen as heavily influenced by upfront cash from a large JSAT deal, not yet proof of a structurally cash‑generative business. [31]
- Citizens questions the shift toward satellite services and hardware‑heavy revenue, arguing the business now resembles a more capital‑intensive satellite operator than a software‑as‑a‑service (SaaS) company. [32]
- The firm flags negative trailing EBITDA around ‑$41 million and warns that ongoing capex for new platforms like the Owl spacecraft may strain long‑term free cash flow. [33]
The bottom line: while some analysts see a high‑growth platform rapidly de‑risking its financial model, others see a capital‑intensive satellite operator that may struggle to justify its valuation if growth slows or government spending shifts.
Broader Street View: Consensus Targets Are All Over the Map
If you look across different data providers, you get a surprisingly wide range of 12‑month price targets and opinions on Planet Labs stock:
- TipRanks: Average target of $15.70 from 9 Wall Street analysts in the past three months, implying about 21% upside from a recent price near $12.95. Consensus rating: Strong Buy (7 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell). [34]
- MarketBeat: Average target of $11.26 from 12 analysts, implying about 13% downside from a $13.02 reference price. Rating: Moderate Buy, with 8 Buy, 3 Hold and 1 Sell. [35]
- StockAnalysis: Average target of $10.92, suggesting roughly 16% downside; consensus rating still Buy, with a target range from $3.50 to $20. [36]
- ValueInvesting.io: Average 12‑month forecast of $13.99, about 9% upside, based on 18 analysts; consensus recommendation Buy, with 10 Buy and 4 Strong Buy ratings. [37]
- GuruFocus: Average Street target of about $13.71 (roughly 4% upside from a $13.17 reference price), with an overall brokerage recommendation of “Outperform”; its proprietary GF Value model, however, estimates a fair value near $4.85, implying substantial long‑term downside if that model proves correct. [38]
This dispersion tells you two important things:
- Analysts generally like the business — almost all of these sources show the stock rated somewhere between Buy and Strong Buy.
- There is no consensus on what a fair price should be, with credible models clustering anywhere from mid‑single digits to low‑20s per share.
For investors, that means the argument is less about whether Planet Labs has a real business, and more about how much future growth and profitability is already priced in.
What the Thematic Analyses Are Saying
Beyond the pure numbers, recent deep‑dive articles and AI‑assisted research pieces highlight several recurring themes.
Bullish Narratives
Recent analyses across Zacks, AInvest, GuruFocus and others emphasize:
- Accelerating growth: Q3’s 33% revenue growth was the fastest in nearly three years, driven by large defense and intelligence deals. [39]
- Improving profitability: Four straight quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow over the last three quarters suggest Planet Labs is crossing an important financial inflection point. [40]
- Contract visibility: A backlog above $730 million and RPO north of $670 million provide multi‑year revenue visibility, especially if government contracts renew and expand. [41]
- Technology lead: The Pelican constellation, AI‑ready data and partnerships (for example with quantum‑systems drone platforms in Europe) are seen as strengthening Planet’s competitive moat in geospatial intelligence. [42]
Some fundamental models, such as Simply Wall St’s narrative‑driven fair‑value work, envision Planet reaching roughly $409 million in revenue and positive earnings by 2028, which would require annual revenue growth around 18% from here. Their estimated fair value in the mid‑teens implies only moderate upside from current prices, but still assumes Planet executes well on both growth and margin expansion. [43]
Bearish and Cautious Narratives
On the other side, the more cautious pieces focus on structural risks:
- Customer concentration: A large portion of recent growth has come from a relatively small number of big government and defense contracts. If procurement priorities or budgets shift, Planet could see meaningful revenue volatility. [44]
- Capital intensity: Building, launching and maintaining next‑generation satellites like Pelican and Owl, alongside a growing Berlin manufacturing base, demands ongoing heavy capex. That raises questions about how durable free cash flow will be over a full cycle. [45]
- Margins under pressure: Non‑GAAP gross margin slipped to around 60% from mid‑60s a year ago, partly due to expansion into satellite services and AI partner solutions. If that trend continues, it could cap the company’s ability to hit “Rule of 40”‑style metrics. [46]
- Valuation risk: Given the stock’s 200%+ run in 2025, several valuation frameworks — including MarketBeat’s implied downside, StockAnalysis’ discounted targets and GuruFocus’ GF Value — suggest the market may already be pricing in very optimistic scenarios. [47]
Put simply, the bear case is not that Planet Labs is a bad company; it is that even good execution might not be enough to justify today’s price if growth slows, defense spending wobbles, or new constellations take longer than expected to ramp.
Key Takeaways for Investors Watching Planet Labs Stock
As of December 11, 2025, the Planet Labs story looks like this:
- A fast‑growing Earth‑imaging company with clear product‑market fit in defense, climate and infrastructure monitoring. [48]
- A business that has now demonstrated multiple quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, backed by a large backlog and strong net retention. [49]
- A stock that has already multiplied in 2025, with high volatility, notable short interest and wildly divergent valuation targets. [50]
For risk‑tolerant investors who believe that geospatial data and AI‑powered monitoring will be structurally more important over the next decade, Planet Labs offers a clean, pure‑play exposure with genuine technological differentiation.
For more conservative investors, the capital intensity of satellite constellations, reliance on government budgets, and wide spread between bullish and bearish fair‑value estimates may argue for caution, position sizing discipline or a wait‑and‑see approach until the path to durable GAAP profitability is clearer.
References
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