Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL) heads into its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings day on December 10, 2025 with a stock that has ripped more than 200% higher over the past year, a rapidly expanding AI-enabled satellite fleet, and a valuation that has analysts split between “strong buy” and “maybe a bit rich.” [1]
As of late trading on December 10, PL changes hands at around $12.9 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $4 billion. [2] The company will report Q3 results after the close today, with a conference call scheduled in the evening, making this a key inflection point for Planet’s high-flying stock. [3]
This article walks through the latest news, today’s earnings expectations, analyst forecasts, and valuation debates around Planet Labs PBC stock as of December 10, 2025, in a format suitable for Google News and Discover readers.
1. Planet Labs PBC Stock Snapshot on December 10, 2025
- Latest price: about $12.88 (intraday high $13.08, low $12.59).
- Market cap: approximately $4.0 billion. [4]
- Recent trading: volumes in early December have ranged around 4–10 million shares per day, well above many small-cap peers. [5]
- 52‑week range: roughly $2.79 to $16.78, reflecting a huge move off 2024 lows but a pullback from recent peaks. [6]
Multiple sources estimate Planet’s one‑year share gain at well above 200%, and a Barron’s feature in October noted the stock was up more than 270% year‑to‑date at that point, vastly outpacing the S&P 500. [7]
In the Telecom / Cable–Satellite industry group, Planet is now cited as a top-ranked name, with Investor’s Business Daily recently describing Planet as the leader in its category even as rival BlackSky drew a high Relative Strength rating. [8]
So heading into earnings, PL is not a sleepy small cap – it’s a volatile, heavily watched satellite-and-AI story stock that has already rewarded early believers.
2. Fresh News: AI-Enabled Pelican Satellites, First-Light Images and Space-AI Experiments
2.1 Pelican‑5, Pelican‑6 and 36 SuperDoves: Big Upgrade to the Constellation
On November 28, 2025, Planet launched Pelican‑5 and Pelican‑6, two high‑resolution, AI‑enabled tasking satellites, along with 36 SuperDove monitoring satellites on SpaceX’s Transporter‑15 rideshare mission from Vandenberg. [9]
Key points from Planet’s own releases and follow‑up coverage:
- Pelican‑5 and Pelican‑6 are part of the “Gen 1 Pelican” fleet, designed to deliver ~40–50 cm class imagery across six multispectral bands, tuned for cross-sensor analytics. [10]
- The satellites use onboard NVIDIA Jetson hardware for edge AI processing, allowing faster detection and delivery of insights to customers. [11]
- The 36 SuperDoves enhance Planet’s daily global coverage, supporting its PlanetScope mission focused on agriculture, climate, infrastructure and other Earth-monitoring use cases. [12]
- Planet plans more Pelican and SuperDove launches in 2026, steadily increasing revisit rates and data volume. [13]
These launches directly support Planet’s pitch to investors: a denser constellation, higher resolution, and more AI at the edge should translate into higher‑value data products and stronger pricing power over time.
2.2 December 10 Highlight: First-Light Imagery From Pelican‑6
In the hours leading up to today’s earnings, Planet also showcased progress on the new hardware. A December 9–10 press cycle highlighted “first light” imagery from Pelican‑6, including views of Lhasa Gonggar International Airport in Tibet captured from roughly 519 km altitude. [14]
The company emphasized that:
- Image quality should improve as calibration completes and the satellites reach their final operational orbits. [15]
- Pelican‑5 and Pelican‑6 will join the existing Pelican fleet to deliver 50 cm-class products, integrating with Planet’s existing SkySat and Pelican systems. [16]
It’s a symbolic milestone: first-light photos are a tangible proof that the expensive hardware investors paid for is doing its job.
2.3 Planet, Google and the “Data Centers in Space” Idea
On December 10, The Wall Street Journal highlighted a broader push by major tech players toward AI‑heavy data centers in orbit. Among the companies mentioned: Google and Planet, planning to test satellites equipped with AI chips around 2027 as part of this new space‑compute race. [17]
In the article’s framing:
- Space is attractive thanks to abundant solar energy and relief from terrestrial power constraints.
- The concept is early and technically daunting (thermal management, radiation, cost), but firms like Planet are exploring it as a way to push more AI inferencing closer to where data is collected. [18]
For PL stock, this adds another layer to the story: Planet is not just selling images; it’s increasingly treated as a potential AI infrastructure play in orbit.
3. Defense, Intelligence and Maritime Contracts: Deepening Government Ties
One of the biggest drivers behind Planet’s backlog and investor enthusiasm in 2025 has been a stream of defense and intelligence contracts, many centered on AI‑assisted monitoring.
Key deals and renewals in 2025:
- 8‑figure defense & intelligence renewal (November 5, 2025):
Planet announced a renewed eight‑figure contract with a long‑standing international defense and intelligence customer for high‑resolution Pelican and SkySat imagery and “assured tasking” services. [19] - US Navy vessel detection & monitoring renewal (October 7, 2025):
The U.S. Navy renewed a contract for ship detection and maritime monitoring solutions built on Planet imagery and analytics. [20] - $12.8 million AI maritime domain awareness contract (October 20, 2025):
Planet Labs Federal won a $12.8 million contract from the U.S. National Geospatial‑Intelligence Agency (NGA) to deliver AI‑enabled maritime domain awareness, including vessel detection across key Asia‑Pacific regions. [21] - €240 million AI defense contract plus three major wins (July 2025):
Earlier in the year, Planet announced roughly €240 million in European defense contracts tied to AI‑enabled situational awareness and direct downlink capabilities. [22] - $230 million Pelican manufacturing deal in Asia‑Pacific (January 2025):
Planet secured its largest single commercial deal: a $230 million, seven‑year agreement to build and operate Pelican satellites for an undisclosed Asia‑Pacific customer, while keeping resale rights on the data. [23]
This cluster of contracts helps explain why Planet’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) and backlog exploded in 2025. In its Q2 fiscal 2026 results, Planet reported:
- RPO up 516% year on year to $690.1 million,
- Backlog up 245% to $736.1 million,
- Year‑to‑date operating cash flow of $85.1 million and free cash flow of $54.3 million,
- And Q2 revenue of $73.4 million, up 20% year on year, with a 61% non‑GAAP gross margin and $6.4 million in adjusted EBITDA. [24]
For a company that was once known mostly as a “cool satellite startup,” this degree of multi‑year, government‑backed backlog is central to the current bull case on PL.
4. Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: What Wall Street Expects Today
Planet’s fiscal Q3 2026 results (quarter ended October 31, 2025) are scheduled for release after the market close on December 10, 2025, followed by a conference call. [25]
Across several data providers, consensus expectations look roughly like this:
- Revenue: around $72–72.1 million, implying ~17–18% year‑over‑year growth. [26]
- EPS (non‑GAAP or adjusted): a loss of about -$0.04 per share, slightly worse than the roughly -$0.02 recorded in the same quarter a year ago. [27]
- Revision trends: Gurufocus and other trackers note multiple upward revisions to both EPS and revenue estimates heading into the print (e.g., four upward EPS revisions and nine upward revenue revisions), signalling improving analyst sentiment. [28]
On the full‑year guidance side, Planet previously guided for fiscal 2026:
- Revenue of $281–289 million,
- Non‑GAAP gross margin of 55–57%,
- Adjusted EBITDA between -$7 million and break‑even,
- Capex of $65–75 million. [29]
Given that Q2 delivered 20% revenue growth and positive free cash flow, investors will scrutinize whether Planet can maintain that cash‑flow momentum while continuing to invest heavily in Pelican, Tanager and AI capabilities. [30]
Metrics to watch on today’s call:
- Subscription and recurring revenue mix and growth.
- Gross margin progression as higher‑value Pelican sales ramp.
- New contracts or expansions in defense, climate, agriculture or mapping.
- Updated commentary on AI at the edge, potential “space data center” experiments, and the Owl high‑speed monitoring satellite slated to use Nvidia chips by late 2026. [31]
5. Valuation: Is PL Stock Overvalued, Fairly Valued, or Cheap?
Here’s where things get spicy: valuation opinions on Planet Labs are wildly divergent.
5.1 Analyst Price Targets: Ranging from Bearish to Very Bullish
Depending on data source, recent 12‑month price targets for PL look like this:
- MarketBeat:
- Average target: $11.26
- Range: $4.60 to $20.00
- Implies ~13% downside from a recent price around $12.93. [32]
- TipRanks (last 3 months):
- Average target: $15.70
- Range: $10.90 to $20.00
- Implied ~21% upside from about $12.95.
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy” (7 buys, 2 holds, 0 sells). [33]
- TradingView forecast page:
- Average target around $15.74, with the same high/low band of roughly $10.90–$20.00. [34]
- Clear Street / Nasdaq note (mid‑November):
- Average one‑year target: $13.99, implying ~16% upside from a then‑recent close near $12.01. [35]
- Benzinga analyst compilation:
- Consensus price target around $9.34 from 16 analysts, with a high of $20 and a low near $3.5, but this dataset appears to include older, pre‑rally estimates. [36]
The takeaway: short‑term price targets cluster broadly in the low‑teens to mid‑teens, with some providers seeing modest downside, others forecasting 20%+ upside. The direction of revisions in late 2025 has generally been upward, reflecting stronger growth and contract wins. [37]
5.2 Fundamental “Fair Value” Estimates
Fundamental valuation shops are split too:
- A Simply Wall St valuation check published December 7 argued that, based on a narrative‑driven DCF, PL’s fair value is about $11.31 per share, making the stock roughly 13% overvalued at recent prices around $12.77. The piece noted a year‑to‑date share gain above 200% and a three‑year total shareholder return above 140%, while flagging Planet as still loss‑making on net income. [38]
- A separate DCF‑based note resurfaced via Yahoo Finance this week claiming Planet might be trading at a multi‑thousand‑percent premium to a stricter fair‑value estimate, effectively saying the stock price embeds very aggressive growth assumptions. [39]
In simple terms: valuation depends entirely on how much you believe in Planet’s long‑term AI + defense + geospatial story. At around a mid‑teens price‑to‑sales multiple on forward revenue (using FY26 revenue guidance and a ~$4B market cap), PL is priced closer to high‑growth software / AI names than to traditional aerospace contractors. [40]
6. Ownership: Alphabet, Institutions and Insider Activity
Another key piece of the puzzle: who actually owns Planet Labs?
- Alphabet (Google’s parent) is Planet’s largest single shareholder, holding roughly 31.9 million shares, or about 10–11% of the company, according to recent filings and ownership trackers. [41]
- Overall, Planet appears to be majority controlled by institutions, with around two‑thirds of shares held by institutional investors and the rest split between insiders and public investors. [42]
- Major institutional holders include BlackRock, Vanguard, Driehaus Capital, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Capricorn Investment Group, alongside Alphabet. [43]
A recent analysis noted that Alphabet’s stake alone was worth roughly $195–$400 million depending on PL’s share price at the time, highlighting that Google has a material interest in Planet’s success. [44]
On the insider side:
- A Barron’s piece in October pointed out that Planet’s stock had climbed more than 270% this year, and that director Carl Bass exercised options and sold shares for about $5.9 million, while still retaining a substantial stake. [45]
- WallStreetZen’s insider‑trade tracker shows significant selling by co‑founder CEO Will Marshall, co‑founder Robbie Schingler and CFO Ashley Johnson during the fall, reflecting some profit‑taking after the rally, even as institutions were increasing exposure. [46]
The mix of large strategic ownership (Alphabet), strong institutional interest, and insider selling is exactly what you’d expect from a high‑beta growth name that has already re‑rated sharply.
7. Capital Structure and the 0.5% Convertible Senior Notes
One of the biggest structural changes in 2025 has been Planet’s decision to raise convertible debt:
- In early September, Planet announced a private offering of $300 million 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2030. [47]
- Investor demand pushed the deal higher. The company ultimately priced $400 million of notes, and after the over‑allotment option, completed an upsized $460 million offering. [48]
The notes:
- Are unsecured,
- Mature in 2030,
- Can be settled in cash, stock, or a mix, at Planet’s discretion,
- Are paired with capped call transactions designed to reduce dilution if the stock rises above certain levels. [49]
Barron’s reported that PL shares jumped 48% after strong Q2 results and raised guidance, then fell about 3% when the convertible notes offering was announced, as investors fretted about potential future dilution despite the low coupon. [50]
From a stock‑analysis perspective:
- The converts give Planet cheap long‑term capital to fund Pelican, Tanager and AI investments.
- But they also cap some upside for equity holders if PL trades far above the conversion price by 2030, and they signal that management is comfortable issuing quasi‑equity at current levels.
8. Strategic Themes Driving the Planet Labs Story
Putting the pieces together, today’s PL bull and bear cases revolve around a few core themes.
8.1 AI + Earth Observation Flywheel
Planet combines:
- A very large constellation of Doves, SuperDoves, SkySats and Pelicans,
- Daily global coverage and increasingly sub‑meter resolution,
- And growing use of AI both on the ground and on orbit for change detection, object recognition and tasking. [51]
This enables products like:
- Rapid monitoring of troop buildup or infrastructure changes,
- Crop‑health and yield analytics,
- Climate and deforestation tracking,
- Insurance, energy and logistics insights. [52]
Analysts like those at The Motley Fool argue that AI is Planet’s “secret weapon”, allowing it to deliver more value per pixel while reducing cloud‑compute costs via on‑orbit processing. [53]
8.2 Heavy Exposure to Defense and Government
Recent European and U.S. contracts, plus the Asia‑Pacific satellite‑build deal, show that Planet has become a core geospatial infrastructure provider for militaries and intelligence agencies. [54]
That comes with trade‑offs:
- Upside: multi‑year commitments, large RPO and backlog, and strong fit with AI‑enabled situational awareness. [55]
- Risk: dependence on government budgets, potential cyclicality if priorities shift, and geopolitical constraints on which customers Planet can serve.
8.3 Path to Profitability
Fundamentally, Planet is trying to grow into its valuation by:
- Expanding revenue at high‑teens to low‑20s percentages,
- Maintaining or improving mid‑50s to low‑60s gross margins,
- And keeping operating costs under control so that adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow stay near breakeven or slightly positive. [56]
Q2 showed that this is possible — positive free cash flow is no longer hypothetical. But Q3 and Q4 will need to support that trend to convince skeptics.
9. Key Risks: Why Some Models Call PL Overvalued
Despite the excitement, several risk flags keep appearing in analyst and quant reports:
- Still unprofitable on a GAAP basis
- Even if adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are near breakeven, Planet still records net losses and expects at best a slightly negative EBITDA for FY26. [57]
- Rich revenue multiple
- With a ~$4 billion market cap on ~$281–289 million guided revenue, Planet trades at a lofty forward price‑to‑sales multiple, which leaves little margin of error if growth slows. [58]
- Dilution from equity and converts
- Stock‑based compensation, insider selling and the convertible notes all create the possibility of more shares over time, diluting existing holders if earnings don’t keep pace. [59]
- Competitive landscape
- Competitors such as BlackSky, Spire, Maxar and others are aggressively pursuing defense and commercial geospatial markets, often emphasizing real‑time analytics and AI as well. Investor’s Business Daily, for example, recently highlighted BlackSky’s strong relative strength even while pointing out Planet’s industry leadership status. [60]
- Valuation uncertainty
- The spread between valuation models is huge — from modest overvaluation (fair value ~$11.31) to extreme overvaluation in some DCF interpretations. [61]
In other words: Planet’s story is powerful, but the math is tight. Any stumble in growth, margins or contract wins could hit the stock hard after such a big run.
10. What Matters Most for PL Stock After Today’s Earnings
For investors, traders and Planet‑watchers, the earnings release and call on December 10, 2025 will likely focus on:
- Can Planet beat or at least meet the ~$72M revenue and -$0.04 EPS expectations? [62]
- Does management reiterate or raise FY26 guidance, especially the $281–289M revenue range and near‑breakeven adjusted EBITDA goals? [63]
- Updates on Pelican‑5/6 commissioning, early customer demand and new contracts enabled by higher resolution and onboard AI. [64]
- More detail on the Quantum Systems partnership and “tip‑and‑cue” satellite/drone solutions for European defense clients, which Seeking Alpha highlighted as a key growth vector. [65]
- Commentary on space‑AI experiments, especially in light of today’s reporting on future AI data centers in orbit featuring Planet and Google. [66]
Whichever way the stock moves in the short term, PL has clearly evolved from a niche Earth‑imaging play into a central character in the emerging “AI in space” and defense‑geospatial narrative — and markets are pricing it accordingly.
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