Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL) stock is hitting fresh highs after a strong Q3 FY2026 report, raised revenue guidance, and a wave of analyst price-target hikes. Here’s the latest news, forecasts, and what to watch next.
Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL) is extending its breakout week on Friday, December 12, 2025, after a sharp post-earnings rally and a new round of Wall Street re-ratings. Shares were last trading around $18.94 (up about $1.47 from the prior close) with heavy volume and an intraday range that pushed as high as $19.095.
The immediate catalyst is clear: Planet’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings and outlook reset expectations for growth visibility—especially around its fast-rising contracted revenue pipeline (RPO/backlog) and accelerating demand for “AI-enabled global monitoring” in defense and intelligence use cases. [1]
Below is a full, publication-ready breakdown of all the major news, forecasts, and analyses circulating on 12/12/2025—from the earnings details and guidance to the most notable analyst price targets and the debate now forming around valuation.
Why Planet Labs stock is moving on Dec. 12, 2025
Planet Labs stock is reacting to a combination of:
- A decisive Q3 revenue beat and break-even non-GAAP EPS
- Raised FY2026 revenue guidance (and updated profitability / cash-flow framing)
- A dramatic spike in RPO and backlog—a key “visibility” metric many investors treat as a leading indicator
- Fresh analyst target increases, including a headline move from Morgan Stanley
- High short interest + post-earnings volatility, which can amplify upside (and downside) moves
Barron’s reported that shares surged 34.9% to close at $17.47 immediately following the quarterly results, underscoring how explosive PL’s post-earnings moves have become. [2]
Reuters (via a Refinitiv/TradingView feed) highlighted the early reaction as well, noting PL up strongly premarket after the company raised FY26 revenue guidance and posted Q3 revenue above consensus estimates. [3]
The key takeaways from Planet’s Q3 FY2026 earnings report
Planet’s own earnings release (covering the quarter ended Oct. 31, 2025) provides the cleanest view of what actually changed—and what the market is repricing. [4]
Q3 FY2026 headline numbers (what matters most)
- Revenue:$81.3 million, up 33% year over year (record quarter) [5]
- Recurring ACV mix:97% (highly subscription/contract weighted) [6]
- Gross margin (GAAP):57% (vs. 61% prior year quarter) [7]
- Non-GAAP gross margin:60% (vs. 64% prior year quarter) [8]
- Net loss (GAAP):$(59.2) million; GAAP EPS:$(0.19) [9]
- Non-GAAP EPS: approximately $0.00 (break-even) [10]
- Adjusted EBITDA:+$5.6 million (profit) [11]
- Cash, cash equivalents & short-term investments:$677.3 million at quarter end [12]
One nuance worth stating plainly for readers: many headlines focus on “break-even earnings,” but that’s non-GAAP. Planet’s GAAP net loss widened year over year in Q3, even as revenue surged and adjusted EBITDA stayed positive. [13]
Planet also disclosed that it raised $460 million of convertible debt to strengthen the balance sheet—another detail investors are factoring into dilution/valuation debates. [14]
Guidance raised: FY2026 outlook resets the “growth + profitability” story
This is where the market’s conviction really strengthened—especially for investors who care about forward visibility and contract-driven growth.
Full-year FY2026 guidance (Planet’s updated view)
- Revenue:$297 million to $301 million [15]
- Non-GAAP gross margin:57% to 58% [16]
- Adjusted EBITDA:+$6 million to +$8 million (profit) [17]
- Capital expenditures:$81 million to $85 million [18]
Q4 FY2026 guidance (an important “but read the fine print” item)
- Revenue:$76 million to $80 million [19]
- Non-GAAP gross margin:50% to 52% [20]
- Adjusted EBITDA:$(7) million to $(5) million (loss) [21]
- Capital expenditures:$22 million to $26 million [22]
That Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss guidance is notable because it signals continued heavy investment (satellites, product roadmap, scaling costs), even as the company expects full-year adjusted EBITDA profitability.
Barron’s summarized the guidance shift as a meaningful step-up versus prior expectations, implying a stronger Q4 revenue run-rate than the Street had modeled. [23]
The “real” surprise metric: RPO and backlog exploded
A big portion of the Dec. 12 conversation isn’t just about one quarter’s revenue—it’s about multi-year contracted demand.
Planet reported:
- RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations):$672 million, up 361% YoY [24]
- Backlog:$734 million, up 216% YoY [25]
Management also provided timing color in the earnings call transcript: roughly one-third of RPO and about 37% of backlog are tied to the next 12 months, with the bulk associated with longer-dated delivery. [26]
Several market commentators on Dec. 12 framed this RPO jump as the “game-changing” datapoint behind the re-rating—arguing that Planet is being valued less like a niche “space stock” and more like a contract-rich data/AI infrastructure platform. [27]
What’s driving demand: defense, intelligence, and “AI-enabled global monitoring”
Planet’s earnings release listed a string of government and defense-adjacent wins and renewals, including:
- NGA (Luno B):$12.8M initial award (with partner SynMax) for AI-enabled maritime monitoring [28]
- NRO: renewal plus a framework for ordering high-resolution Pelican imagery [29]
- NASA:$13.5M task order under CSDA, plus an additional task order for high-resolution disaster response support [30]
- U.S. Navy: contract renewal for vessel detection and monitoring [31]
- NATO: “seven-figure” contract expansion for persistent surveillance and indications/warnings [32]
Planet also emphasized product/spacecraft progress, including the launch of additional Pelican and SuperDove satellites and plans for a new manufacturing facility in Germany to meet European demand. [33]
The AI angle got louder: Bedrock acquisition + Google “Project Suncatcher”
Two strategic moves are getting disproportionate attention in today’s analysis cycle:
1) Bedrock Research acquisition
Planet confirmed it acquired Bedrock Research, describing it as an AI solutions team with expertise spanning remote sensing, AI, and national security workflows—explicitly tied to scaling global monitoring solutions for Defense & Intelligence customers. [34]
2) Google partnership: Project Suncatcher
Planet also pointed to a research initiative with Google—Project Suncatcher—aimed at exploring scaled AI computing in space, with Planet contracted to deploy two prototype satellites targeting launch in 2027. [35]
Google’s own announcement frames Suncatcher as a long-term “moonshot” to one day scale machine learning compute in orbit. [36]
And the Wall Street Journal recently highlighted the broader trend toward orbital compute/data-center concepts, naming Planet Labs and Google among the participants in planned test satellites. [37]
For PL stock, the market implication is simple: the more Planet is perceived as “AI + data subscription infrastructure” rather than “imagery hardware,” the easier it becomes for investors to justify higher revenue multiples—even if near-term profitability remains uneven.
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 12: price targets move up (fast), ratings still mixed
On 12/12/2025, analysts are clearly racing to catch up to the stock’s momentum—especially after the guidance raise and backlog surge.
The headline move: Morgan Stanley
Investing.com reported Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $20 from $4.50, while maintaining an Equalweight rating (i.e., not an outright bullish upgrade despite the target jump). [38]
Other target increases in the immediate post-earnings window
Benzinga listed multiple price-target hikes after the Q3 print, including:
- Needham: raised target $16 → $22 (Buy)
- Wedbush: raised target $17 → $20 (Outperform)
- Clear Street: raised target $14 → $16 (Buy) [39]
The Wall Street Journal’s upgrades/downgrades feed also showed Citigroup coverage at Buy with a $19 target listed for Friday, Dec. 12, 2025. [40]
What those targets imply vs. today’s price
With PL around $18.94, a:
- $20 target implies roughly ~5.6% upside,
- $22 implies roughly ~16% upside,
- $16 implies roughly ~15% downside (even after an increase). [41]
That wide spread is a key message for readers: analysts are not aligned on what multiple Planet deserves after this run.
“Consensus” targets are all over the map
Depending on the dataset and time window:
- TipRanks shows an average target in the high teens with highs around $20. [42]
- StockAnalysis shows a lower average target (mid-teens) and a wide range, reflecting how fast targets are changing. [43]
For Google News/Discover readers, the practical takeaway is: today’s rally may have moved PL above older consensus targets, forcing rapid revisions.
Volatility check: short interest and “post-earnings squeezes” are part of PL’s story now
Planet Labs has developed a reputation for outsized moves around earnings.
Barron’s highlighted that short interest is elevated (around the low-to-mid teens as a percentage of tradable shares), which can amplify rallies if short sellers are forced to cover into strength. [44]
MarketBeat’s latest snapshot (as of late November) put short interest at roughly 11.77% of float, with “days to cover” a bit above 4 days. [45]
WSJ market data also lists short interest metrics in a similar neighborhood. [46]
The bullish case circulating today
Based on the Dec. 12 news cycle, the bullish thesis being repeated most often looks like this:
- Contracted demand surged (RPO/backlog), improving revenue visibility. [47]
- Planet is winning in Defense & Intelligence where budgets and urgency remain high. [48]
- The company is packaging imagery into AI-enabled monitoring solutions, potentially supporting more software-like economics over time. [49]
- The balance sheet is sizable, with $677M in cash/equivalents/short-term investments. [50]
The bear case circulating today
The cautionary side of today’s analysis focuses on:
- Valuation: some commentators argue PL is now priced at a premium multiple relative to its current scale, especially after a rapid run-up. [51]
- GAAP profitability: GAAP losses remain material, even if adjusted EBITDA is positive and non-GAAP EPS is improving. [52]
- Convertible debt/dilution risk: Planet raised $460M of convertibles—helpful for liquidity, but potentially dilutive depending on conversion terms and future share price behavior. [53]
- Execution risk: satellite manufacturing, launches, and customer delivery schedules can introduce volatility. [54]
Some bearish commentary explicitly flags “momentum + multiple expansion” risk after the rally. [55]
What to watch next for Planet Labs (PL) stock
For readers following PL into year-end, the next catalysts are likely to be:
- Conversion of RPO/backlog into revenue
Watch whether Planet’s record contracted demand turns into predictable quarterly beats—or if timing pushes out. [56] - Margins through an investment-heavy Q4
Planet guided non-GAAP gross margin down to ~50–52% for Q4 and adjusted EBITDA loss despite full-year profitability. Investors will focus on whether that dip is temporary and strategic. [57] - Defense & intelligence renewal cadence
Many of the named wins are government-linked. Continuity of awards/renewals matters, especially as Planet pushes AI monitoring solutions deeper into that sector. [58] - Product roadmap milestones: Pelican, Owl, and “AI at the edge”
Planet is marketing next-gen capability (including NVIDIA-enabled concepts for future satellites) and expanding manufacturing capacity—execution here can drive the next leg of the narrative. [59] - Project Suncatcher progress (long-dated, but perception-moving)
The Google partnership is early-stage, but it feeds directly into the “AI infrastructure” framing that is influencing valuation today. [60]
Bottom line (Dec. 12, 2025)
Planet Labs stock is rallying because the company didn’t just beat a quarter—it strengthened the forward story: raised FY2026 revenue guidance, showcased a massive jump in RPO/backlog, and reinforced its push into AI-enabled monitoring for defense and government customers. [61]
At the same time, today’s coverage shows a market that’s re-pricing PL quickly, with price targets rising (notably to $20 at Morgan Stanley) but not all ratings turning outright bullish—a signal that valuation and execution risk are now front-and-center. [62]
References
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