NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 6:09 a.m. ET — Market closed
Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL) heads into the final week of the year with investors trying to answer a classic market riddle: was Friday’s drop just a holiday-week wobble in a high-flying space stock—or an early warning that expectations have gotten too spicy?
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, the next real test arrives Monday’s regular session. For PL shareholders, the setup is clear: a stock that surged hard in December, touched fresh highs earlier in the week, then fell sharply on thin, post-holiday liquidity as broader indexes barely moved. [1]
The market backdrop: a quiet tape near record levels
Friday (Dec. 26) had the vibe of an empty airport terminal: the lights are on, a few people are moving, but the big crowds already left. Reuters described a light-volume, post-Christmas session that ended “nearly unchanged,” with all three major indexes slightly lower and the “Santa Claus rally” period in focus. [2]
The Associated Press reported the S&P 500 slipped just 0.03% to 6,929.94, the Dow fell 0.04% to 48,710.97, and the Nasdaq eased 0.09% to 23,593.10—moves that are basically a rounding error compared with PL’s swings. [3]
That contrast matters: when the overall market is barely blinking, a 4%–5% stock move usually means something specific is happening in that name (or in its neighborhood).
Planet Labs stock: where PL left off before the weekend
Planet Labs closed Friday at $19.36, down 4.72% on the day, after trading between $19.04 and $20.34. In after-hours trading, PL was quoted around $19.25 late Friday evening. [4]
Zoom out slightly and you can see why traders have been jumpy: PL hit $20.99 earlier in the week (Dec. 23), then pulled back into the weekend. [5]
This is not a stock that tiptoes.
What changed in the last 24–48 hours: downgrade headlines and space-stock rotation
In the last couple of days, market commentary around Planet Labs has focused on two immediate forces:
1) A downgrade narrative hit the tape.
Barchart reported PL fell after a Zacks Research analyst downgraded the stock from “hold” to “strong sell,” pointing to concerns tied to profitability following the company’s recent EPS miss (despite a revenue beat). [6]
Whether you love or hate analyst ratings, they can move stocks—especially in a thin tape—because they give traders a simple storyline to trade.
2) The “space stock” trade cooled off.
In a broader market recap, Investor’s Business Daily noted that several space and space-adjacent names sold off, and said Planet Labs fell more than 4% and dropped from the profit zone of a technical “cup base” pattern. [7]
That matters because PL has increasingly traded like a momentum name inside a wider “space + defense + AI” risk-on basket. When that basket rotates, PL can move fast even without fresh company news.
Fundamentals check: what Planet Labs itself says is driving the business
To understand why PL has been so sensitive to ratings, rotation, and sentiment, you have to look at the company’s own storyline: Planet is selling Earth-imaging data and analytics—and pitching itself as an “AI-enabled” monitoring platform for government, defense, and commercial customers. [8]
In its fiscal third-quarter 2026 results (released Dec. 10), Planet reported:
- Record quarterly revenue of $81.3 million (+33% YoY) [9]
- Remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $672 million (+361% YoY) and backlog of $734 million (+216% YoY) [10]
- Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $677.3 million at quarter end [11]
- GAAP net loss per share of ($0.19) and non-GAAP net loss per share of ($0.00) [12]
- Adjusted EBITDA of $5.6 million profit (its fourth consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability, per management) [13]
The tension in those bullets is the whole PL debate in miniature: fast growth and big contracted demand signals, but still GAAP-unprofitable and prone to sentiment-driven volatility.
Management’s “why now” pitch: AI monitoring, defense traction, and product expansion
CEO Will Marshall framed the quarter as progress toward profitability and stronger traction in AI-enabled monitoring, referencing work such as NGA’s Luno B program and NATO expansion, while also pointing to the acquisition of Bedrock Research to accelerate the roadmap. [14]
CFO Ashley Johnson highlighted record revenue, continued adjusted EBITDA profitability, positive free cash flow, and said the company raised $460 million of convertible debt to strengthen the balance sheet. [15]
Planet also listed a stack of recent commercial and government activity—including contracts and renewals with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), NASA, the U.S. Navy, and NATO—plus satellite launches and plans for a Berlin manufacturing facility for next-gen Pelican satellites. [16]
If you’re wondering why investors treat PL like a “news-reactor,” that’s why: contracts, satellites, and capability announcements can meaningfully change the forward story.
Guidance: investors are also trading the next quarter
Planet’s own outlook helps explain why the stock can whip around on “profitability” headlines.
For fiscal Q4 2026 (ending Jan. 31, 2026), Planet guided to:
- Revenue: $76M–$80M
- Adjusted EBITDA loss: ($7M)–($5M) [17]
For the full fiscal year 2026, Planet guided to:
- Revenue: $297M–$301M
- Adjusted EBITDA profit: $6M–$8M [18]
In plain English: management is signaling profitability progress over the full year, but also a potentially softer profitability quarter near-term. Traders often don’t wait politely for the full-year view—they trade the next print.
Forecasts and analyst views: a wide target spread (and that’s the point)
If you’re looking for a single, tidy Wall Street verdict on PL, you’re going to be disappointed—analyst views are mixed, and even the “consensus” depends on which dataset you’re reading.
MarketBeat’s Dec. 26 recap described PL’s consensus as “Hold” with an average target price of $14.74, while also noting a more bullish high-end view (for example, it reported Needham raised its price target to $22 and kept a buy rating). [19]
Meanwhile, a Nasdaq article drawing on Fintel data said the average one-year price target for Planet Labs was revised to $17.78, up from a prior estimate. [20]
And in a separate note carried by TipRanks’ TheFly, Clear Street analyst Greg Pendy previously raised PL’s price target to $14 from $12 and maintained a Buy rating, citing a higher multiple applied to a raised long-term revenue projection (FY28 in that note). [21]
What the target spread signals right now
When a stock trades around $19 while some “consensus” targets sit meaningfully lower, it doesn’t automatically mean “sell.” It means the market is pricing in a more optimistic path than a portion of analysts are willing to underwrite—yet. [22]
That gap is where volatility lives:
- Bulls see backlog/RPO growth, defense momentum, and an AI-enabled product expansion.
- Bears see GAAP losses, valuation risk after a sharp run, and dilution/complexity from convertible debt.
If you’re holding (or eyeing) PL: what to know before Monday’s session
Because markets are closed today, the practical investor question becomes: what could realistically change between now and Monday’s open—and what signals matter most if PL gaps up or down?
1) Expect thin liquidity and bigger intraday moves
Reuters quoted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, saying the market was “catching our breath” after a strong rally, while noting the Santa rally window still had time left. Thin volume plus year-end positioning is exactly the kind of environment where PL can swing harder than the indexes. [23]
2) Watch for follow-on analyst commentary
Friday’s downgrade-driven storyline (Zacks) may or may not get follow-through—but if additional firms pile on (or push back with upgrades/target hikes), PL can re-rate quickly. [24]
3) The “profitability vs. growth” debate is the lever
Planet is telling investors: strong demand signals (RPO/backlog), expanding defense traction, and AI-driven monitoring—while also guiding to an adjusted EBITDA loss next quarter. That mix can support both bullish and bearish takes, depending on what investors emphasize in the moment. [25]
4) Know the recent price landmarks traders are watching
Even if you’re not a chart devotee, price landmarks influence behavior:
- Recent peak near $20.99 earlier in the week (psychological resistance). [26]
- Friday’s close near $19.36 (the “where did buyers show up?” level). [27]
- The technical “buy point” language referenced by IBD (a clue to where momentum traders may re-engage). [28]
5) Don’t ignore balance-sheet mechanics
Planet’s large cash position can be a stabilizer, but convertibles can also introduce dilution math and valuation debates—especially after a big share-price run. [29]
Bottom line
Planet Labs stock is entering Monday’s session with a tug-of-war setup: a company reporting strong demand signals and ambitious product expansion, but a stock that’s been priced like a momentum rocket—and therefore reacts sharply to downgrades, rotation, and the market’s shifting tolerance for “growth now, profits later.” [30]
If you’re evaluating PL into the next session, the most useful framing isn’t “What happened Friday?”—it’s “What would have to be true for $19 to look cheap… or expensive?” The answer will hinge on contract execution, the path to sustained profitability, and whether the market keeps rewarding the “space + AI” narrative as 2025 turns into 2026. [31]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.barchart.com, 7. www.investors.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.barchart.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. stockanalysis.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.investors.com, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.sec.gov, 31. www.sec.gov
