Planet Labs PBC (NYSE: PL) is back in the market spotlight on Monday, December 22, 2025, as the stock trades near record territory after a cascade of catalysts: a blowout fiscal Q3 revenue print, sharply higher contract backlog metrics, fresh satellite milestones for its next‑gen Pelican fleet, and a wave of analyst price‑target revisions. [1]
By midday, PL was up strongly on the session after closing the prior trading day at $19.18, with intraday trading pushing above $20—a level that underscores how dramatically investor sentiment has shifted since earlier in 2025. [2]
PL stock today: the price action driving headlines
Planet Labs shares are extending a powerful late‑2025 run. On Dec. 22, the stock moved from a prior close of $19.18 into the low‑$20s, with intraday levels reaching roughly $20.7 and volume in the high single‑digit millions. [3]
Just days earlier, Investing.com reported PL hitting an all‑time high near $19.71 on Dec. 19, framing the move as part of a broader, momentum‑heavy rerating that has pulled more traders—and more analyst commentary—into the name. [4]
The core catalyst: Planet’s fiscal Q3 2026 report reset expectations
The biggest фундамент under the rally is Planet’s fiscal third quarter 2026 update (period ended Oct. 31, 2025), released Dec. 10, 2025.
Key reported highlights included:
- Revenue: $81.3 million, up 33% year over year (record quarterly revenue). [5]
- Remaining performance obligations (RPOs): $672 million, up 361% YoY; backlog: $734 million, up 216% YoY. [6]
- Adjusted EBITDA: +$5.6 million (profit), versus a slight loss a year earlier. [7]
- GAAP net loss: ($59.2) million (a wider loss than the prior year), while non‑GAAP net loss per share was approximately ($0.00). [8]
- Cash, cash equivalents, and short‑term investments: $677.3 million at quarter end. [9]
This mix—rapid top‑line growth, expanding contracted revenue visibility, improving adjusted profitability, but still significant GAAP losses—helps explain why PL has become both a momentum favorite and a valuation debate.
Guidance: Planet raised the bar for FY2026 revenue and EBITDA
Alongside results, Planet guided:
- Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue:$76 million to $80 million
- Full fiscal year 2026 revenue:$297 million to $301 million
- Full fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA:+$6 million to +$8 million (profit) [10]
Market commentary following the release emphasized the step‑up in the revenue run‑rate and the company’s focus on scaling AI‑enabled solutions, even as Planet signaled Q4 margin compression tied to investment and higher near‑term costs. [11]
Why investors care about backlog so much for Planet Labs
Planet’s surge in RPOs and backlog is doing a lot of narrative work. In plain English: it suggests that customer demand—especially from government and defense customers—has shifted from “pilot projects” toward larger, stickier, longer‑duration commitments.
Planet’s Q3 release tied that contract momentum to multiple named wins and renewals, including:
- NGA (National Geospatial‑Intelligence Agency): a $12.8 million initial award under the Luno B program for AI‑enabled maritime domain awareness solutions. [12]
- NRO (National Reconnaissance Office): a $13.2 million renewal through June 2026 under the EOCL program, plus a contract framework enabling orders for high‑resolution Pelican imagery. [13]
- NASA: a $13.5 million task order under the CSDA contract, plus an additional $900,000 task order for disaster response imagery. [14]
- U.S. Navy: a six‑month, $7.5 million renewal for vessel detection and monitoring in the Pacific. [15]
- NATO: a “seven‑figure” contract expansion for persistent surveillance and indications/warnings. [16]
On top of those, Planet separately announced an “8‑figure” contract renewal with an international defense and intelligence customer for high‑resolution imagery access and assured tasking capabilities. [17]
Product and satellite milestones: Pelican’s “first light” and the AI‑on‑orbit pitch
Planet isn’t just selling pictures of Earth; it’s selling time (how fast imagery updates) and increasingly analysis (machine‑assisted detection, classification, and monitoring). That’s where its next‑gen Pelican fleet is central to the bull thesis.
Recent milestones include:
- Nov. 28, 2025: Planet launched Pelican‑5 and Pelican‑6 plus 36 SuperDoves on SpaceX’s Transporter‑15 mission, and began commissioning after making contact. [18]
- Planet described Pelican‑5/6 as designed for ~40 cm‑class imagery across six multispectral bands, supporting ongoing 50 cm products, with NVIDIA Jetson onboard for edge compute. [19]
- Dec. 9, 2025: Planet released first light imagery from Pelican‑6, with the image captured Dec. 4 from ~519 km altitude; Planet again highlighted NVIDIA Jetson and said next‑generation Pelicans are designed for 30 cm‑class imagery. [20]
For investors, these updates matter because Planet’s “premium product” argument is essentially: higher resolution + higher cadence + faster analytics = larger, higher‑value contracts. That story has been particularly resonant with defense and intelligence buyers seeking persistent monitoring and rapid decision support. [21]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: upgrades everywhere, but consensus depends on the dataset
In the days following the Q3 report, multiple research notes lifted targets, with several clustering around the high‑teens to low‑$20s:
- MarketBeat reported Deutsche Bank raising its price target from $16 to $17 (Buy), while also noting increases such as Needham to $22, Wedbush to $20, and Cantor Fitzgerald to $20. [22]
- Investing.com similarly summarized a wave of updates, including Morgan Stanley lifting its target to $20 (Equal‑weight), alongside other firms’ raised targets (Needham $22, Clear Street $16, Cantor $20) and at least one more cautious stance (Citizens “Market Perform”). [23]
- GuruFocus also captured the Morgan Stanley target move from $4.50 to $20.00 while maintaining the Equal‑Weight rating. [24]
Why the “consensus” target looks lower than the stock price in some trackers
Here’s where it gets messy (and very real): different tracking services ingest different analyst universes and update schedules. As a result, “consensus price target” can vary widely depending on the source and timestamp.
Examples circulating in mid‑December:
- A Nasdaq/Fintel feed pegged the average one‑year price target at $17.78, with targets ranging $11.11 to $23.10, noting that the average target sat below the then‑recent closing price around $19.18. [25]
- MarketBeat’s forecast page showed an average price target of $14.74, implying meaningful downside versus a ~$20 handle. [26]
The takeaway for readers: the target spread is wide, and PL’s recent rally appears to have outrun some consensus datasets—at least temporarily.
The valuation debate: “rerating” is doing as much work as revenue
A useful way to interpret PL’s move is to separate business improvement from multiple expansion (investors paying more per dollar of sales).
Trefis (Forbes) broke down PL’s 2025 surge as being driven heavily by price‑to‑sales multiple expansion, not just revenue growth—suggesting the market has “rerated” Planet as its contract momentum and AI narrative strengthened. [27]
Meanwhile, Simply Wall St’s post‑earnings analysis argued that owning Planet “today” requires belief that it can scale into sustainable profitability despite ongoing losses, and it highlighted the tension between improving revenue/guidance and the burden of investment and widening GAAP losses. [28]
This isn’t just academic. Planet’s own Q3 release shows:
- expanding revenue and contracted demand visibility, but
- a gross margin down year‑over‑year and a still‑large GAAP net loss. [29]
That combination often leads to volatile stock behavior: the market can be euphoric about direction of travel while still arguing violently about what the company is “worth” today.
Balance sheet and financing: cash is strong, but convertibles matter
Planet ended the quarter with about $677 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short‑term investments, and management said it raised $460 million of convertible debt to strengthen the balance sheet. [30]
Convertible debt can be a double‑edged sword for shareholders:
- It can provide a long runway for satellite deployment and product build‑out.
- But it can also raise dilution concerns if the stock continues to run and conversion terms become relevant.
Barron’s previously highlighted this dynamic earlier in the year when Planet’s shares moved sharply after earnings and financing headlines, noting market sensitivity to potential dilution when convertibles enter the picture. [31]
The longer-term “satellite services” angle: Planet’s biggest deal and a strategic shift
Beyond selling data subscriptions, Planet has been pushing deeper into satellite services—building and operating satellites with dedicated capacity for customers.
Reuters reported in January 2025 that Planet signed a $230 million deal—described as its largest—under which it will build and deliver Pelican high‑resolution satellites for an Asia‑Pacific commercial partner, with satellites slated for delivery in 2026. [32]
That matters today because it supports the idea that Planet can monetize its platform through multiple revenue modes: subscriptions, tasking, analytics, and now bespoke satellite capacity for customers that want more autonomy and control.
What to watch next: the catalysts that could decide whether $20 holds
With PL trading at elevated levels into late December, the next “prove it” moments are less about flashy photos and more about execution:
- Q4 delivery vs. guidance
Planet guided $76–$80 million for fiscal Q4 revenue. Hitting (or missing) that range will shape whether the market keeps rewarding the rerating. [33] - Backlog conversion into revenue and cash flow
Big RPO/backlog numbers are powerful, but investors will want to see conversion into repeatable revenue and durable margins. [34] - Pelican commissioning and next‑gen roadmap
The company is emphasizing Pelican’s role in higher‑value offerings, including on‑orbit compute and future 30 cm‑class ambitions. [35] - Next earnings timing (late March 2026, per trackers)
Earnings calendars vary, but some market trackers list Planet’s next report window in late March 2026. Dates can change, so treat these as estimates until Planet confirms. [36]
The bottom line
As of Dec. 22, 2025, Planet Labs stock is trading like the market has upgraded it from “interesting Earth‑imaging company” to “strategic defense‑and‑AI infrastructure play”—with revenue acceleration, contract visibility, and Pelican milestones all feeding the story. [37]
But the stock’s sharp rerating also raises the stakes: with PL now priced for meaningful execution, investors and analysts are likely to scrutinize the next quarter for proof that growth can translate into improving margins and sustainable profitability—especially given the company’s still‑large GAAP losses and continued investment needs. [38]
References
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