December 11, 2025 – Market wrap and outlook for QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM)
Qualcomm stock is back near the top of investors’ watchlists as a cluster of fresh catalysts converges: record guidance for 2026, a bold acquisition to deepen its RISC‑V CPU ambitions, accelerating AI data‑center and AI PC bets, and steady support from big institutional holders.
As of the latest close, QCOM shares trade around $182, up roughly 3.5% over the last session and not far from their 52‑week high of $205.95. The stock’s 52‑week low sits at $120.80, giving investors a sense of how dramatic the 2025 rebound has been. [1]
Qualcomm stock today: near highs with rich but not extreme valuation
Recent filings and price action paint a picture of a company firmly back in “large‑cap tech core holding” territory:
- QCOM closed at $182.21 on December 10, up 3.53% on the day, with a market capitalization around $194–195 billion. [2]
- Trailing twelve‑month revenue is about $44.3 billion, up 13.7% year on year, while trailing GAAP net income is roughly $5.5 billion, reflecting a large tax charge in fiscal Q4 2025. [3]
- On that GAAP base, Qualcomm trades at a P/E of ~36 and a forward P/E near 15, according to aggregated analyst estimates. [4]
Income investors still get a tangible cash return: Qualcomm pays a quarterly dividend of $0.89 per share (annualized $3.56, about a 2% yield at current prices), with the latest ex‑dividend date on December 4. [5]
Heavy institutional ownership
Today’s news flow includes a string of institutional disclosures:
- Sei Investments Co. boosted its QCOM stake by 6% in the second quarter to about 1.06 million shares worth roughly $169 million, according to a December 11 MarketBeat filing. [6]
- Investment House LLC trimmed its position by 3.3% but still owns 134,493 shares—around $21 million—with Qualcomm remaining its 25th‑largest holding. [7]
- A Form 8.3 filing shows The Vanguard Group controlling about 114.9 million shares, or 10.78% of Qualcomm’s common stock, at prices around $182. [8]
- A separate Form 8.3 from State Street Global Advisors (linked to an Alphawave IP transaction) shows effective economic exposure to just over 5% of Qualcomm’s shares via equity and derivatives. [9]
Overall, institutional ownership sits in the mid‑70% range, underlining Qualcomm’s status as a core holding for global asset managers. [10]
Earnings snapshot: double‑digit revenue growth, noisy GAAP earnings
Qualcomm’s latest results, for Q4 FY 2025 (quarter ended September 28, 2025), underpin the stock’s recent move:
- Q4 revenue:$11.27–11.30 billion, up about 10% year over year, beating Street expectations of ~$10.8 billion. [11]
- Segment mix (Q4 FY25):
- QCT (chips): $9.8 billion, up 13% YoY.
- QTL (licensing): $1.4 billion, down 7% YoY.
- Within QCT, Handsets grew 14% to $7.0 billion, IoT 7% to $1.8 billion, and Automotive 17% to $1.1 billion, according to Futurum’s breakdown of the quarter. [12]
On a non‑GAAP basis, Qualcomm delivered adjusted EPS of $3.00, beating consensus estimates of $2.87. [13]
The twist: GAAP earnings for the full year took a hit due to a large tax charge recognized in Q4. Qualcomm’s FY 2025 revenue climbed to $44.28 billion from $38.96 billion, but GAAP net income fell from about $10.1 billion to $5.5 billion—a 45% decline—largely driven by that tax item, not core operating weakness. [14]
Record guidance for early 2026
Despite the accounting noise, management set a notably upbeat tone for the start of FY 2026:
- Q1 FY 2026 revenue guidance:$11.8–$12.6 billion, ahead of prior consensus around $11.6 billion.
- Non‑GAAP EPS guidance:$3.30–$3.50.
- Implied QCT revenue: $10.3–$10.9 billion, and QTL: $1.4–$1.6 billion. [15]
Simply Wall St, in a narrative picked up by Webull, projects Qualcomm could reach $46.9 billion in revenue and $12.2 billion in earnings by 2028, assuming modest annual growth of about 2.7%. [16]
AI push: data‑center accelerators, AI PCs and a Saudi AI alliance
The real story behind Qualcomm’s re‑rating is its attempt to move from “phone chip giant” to a diversified AI hardware and connectivity platform.
AI200 & AI250: Qualcomm enters the AI data center arena
On October 27, 2025, Qualcomm shares jumped roughly 11–13% after the company unveiled two AI accelerator chips—AI200 and AI250—designed for data centers and aimed squarely at Nvidia and AMD. [17]
The company signaled it intends to maintain a regular, annual cadence of major data‑center AI chip releases, a significant strategic shift for a business historically centered on handsets and connectivity. [18]
That push is already getting real‑world traction:
- In November 2025, Adobe and Qualcomm announced a partnership with Saudi‑backed AI firm Humain to develop Arabic generative‑AI tools.
- Humain’s data centers will use Qualcomm’s AI200 and AI250 chips, with plans to deploy up to 200 megawatts of Qualcomm data‑center AI silicon next year, alongside a new Qualcomm‑Humain R&D center in Riyadh. [19]
The deal illustrates Qualcomm’s attempt to stake out a differentiated niche in AI: not just smartphone NPUs, but also inference‑oriented data‑center hardware tuned for power efficiency and region‑specific workloads.
Snapdragon X2 Elite: pushing into the AI PC refresh
On the client side, Qualcomm is doubling down on Windows AI PCs:
- At its annual Snapdragon Summit in October, Qualcomm unveiled the Snapdragon X2 Elite and X2 Elite Extreme PC platforms.
- The X2 Elite Extreme offers up to 18 CPU cores, an 80 TOPS NPU, and a redesigned GPU, all on a 3‑nanometer Oryon CPU architecture. [20]
- Qualcomm claims up to 31% faster performance at the same power and 43% lower power draw versus the first‑generation Snapdragon X platform, with Windows 11 AI PCs based on X2 expected in the first half of FY 2026. [21]
Analysts at Futurum argue that X2 Elite meaningfully strengthens Qualcomm’s hand in the Copilot+ AI PC ecosystem, bringing it closer to parity with, and in some cases ahead of, x86 and Apple silicon rivals on AI workloads and battery life. [22]
New RISC‑V gambit: Qualcomm buys Ventana Micro Systems
The headline strategic move this week is Qualcomm’s newly announced acquisition of Ventana Micro Systems, a startup specializing in high‑performance RISC‑V CPUs for data‑center and enterprise applications.
- Qualcomm confirmed on December 10 that it has acquired Ventana, though financial terms were not disclosed. [23]
- Ventana’s roughly 150 RISC‑V engineers and multi‑generation server‑class CPU designs will be integrated into Qualcomm’s CPU group. [24]
- Executives have stressed that Qualcomm will develop Arm‑based Oryon cores and RISC‑V cores in parallel, rather than abandoning Arm, giving customers architectural choice and giving Qualcomm leverage in future IP negotiations. [25]
Industry commentary frames the move as less about adding near‑term revenue and more about importing “RISC‑V DNA”—deep expertise in open instruction‑set CPUs—into Qualcomm’s broader AI and edge‑compute roadmap. [26]
In practical terms, the Ventana deal could:
- Reduce Qualcomm’s long‑term dependence on Arm licensing.
- Enable hybrid SoCs that mix Arm and RISC‑V cores for different workloads.
- Position Qualcomm as a key shaper of the RISC‑V ecosystem at a time when open architectures are strategically attractive for both cost and geopolitical reasons. [27]
For investors, it adds another option on the company’s AI compute roadmap, even if it won’t move the financial needle in the near term.
Shareholder returns, valuation models and Wall Street sentiment
Buybacks and dividend support
Alongside its dividend, Qualcomm has been aggressively repurchasing shares:
- Since November 2024, the company has repurchased more than 50 million shares, returning about $7.76 billion in capital to shareholders, according to analysis republished by Webull. [28]
That pace of buybacks is material when the company has roughly 1.07 billion shares outstanding, and helps offset stock‑based compensation and insider selling. [29]
Analyst ratings and price targets
Across multiple data sources, sentiment is constructively bullish rather than euphoric:
- StockAnalysis reports an average rating of “Buy” from 18 analysts, with a 12‑month target price of about $186.94, implying modest upside from current levels. [30]
- MarketBeat data points to a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target near $191, with EPS expectations for the current year around $9.39 on a non‑GAAP basis. [31]
- QuiverQuant aggregates recent price targets with a median around $200, ranging from $165 (Wells Fargo) to $225 (Rosenblatt). UBS, BofA, Mizuho, Piper Sandler, and JPMorgan all rate the stock Buy/Outperform/Overweight following the Q4 report. [32]
Intrinsic value estimates
Independent valuation models are broadly in line with—though often a bit above—Wall Street’s targets:
- A two‑stage discounted cash‑flow model from Simply Wall St, summarized in European tech press, pegs Qualcomm’s fair value around $204.82 per share, about 14–15% above the ~$175 trading level seen in early December. [33]
- A separate Simply Wall St narrative, cited by Webull, suggests a fair value near $187.71, roughly 8% upside from recent prices, based on moderate revenue and earnings growth assumptions through 2028. [34]
Taken together with the 1.9–2.0% dividend yield, the market is pricing Qualcomm as a growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price AI and connectivity platform: not dirt‑cheap, but not in the most speculative corner of AI either.
Risks: regulation, handset exposure and competitive pressure
The bullish story comes with meaningful caveats that repeatedly show up in research notes and news coverage.
Regulatory and M&A risk
On October 10, 2025, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced an investigation into Qualcomm’s acquisition of Israeli V2X specialist Autotalks, citing alleged non‑compliance with Chinese antitrust filing rules. Qualcomm shares dropped about 6.5% on the news. [35]
The case underscores an ongoing risk: Qualcomm’s high regulatory visibility, especially in China and the EU, where it has faced competition and licensing scrutiny in the past. With additional deals (Autotalks, Alphawave, Arduino, Ventana) in play, the antitrust and national‑security lens isn’t going away. [36]
Cyclical handsets and OEM in‑house chips
Qualcomm is diversifying, but smartphones still account for the majority of QCT revenue:
- Handsets represented about $7 billion of QCT’s $9.8 billion in Q4 FY25—roughly 70% of segment revenue. [37]
Multiple analysts and Simply Wall St’s narrative stress that:
- The Android premium and AI‑enhanced handset cycle is helping now, but handset demand remains cyclical.
- Large OEMs (notably Apple and Samsung) continue to develop more of their own silicon, threatening Qualcomm’s share over time, especially in modems and custom SoCs. [38]
AI competition and execution risk
On the AI side, Qualcomm is entering markets where:
- Nvidia and AMD dominate AI data‑center accelerators. [39]
- Intel, AMD and Apple are pushing their own AI PC solutions in parallel. [40]
- RISC‑V, while promising, still trails Arm in software ecosystem maturity, meaning the Ventana acquisition may take years to translate into large‑scale revenue. [41]
QuiverQuant data also highlights that insiders have made 35 sales and zero open‑market purchases over the past six months, something conservative investors may view with caution—even though heavy stock‑based compensation and ongoing buybacks complicate that signal. [42]
Qualcomm stock outlook for 2026: what the market is really betting on
Putting the pieces together, the 2026 investment case in Qualcomm looks something like this:
- Base case:
- Handset demand remains solid if uneven, with premium Android and AI features offsetting maturity in global smartphone volumes.
- Automotive and IoT continue mid‑teens growth, slowly reshaping QCT’s mix toward more diversified, longer‑cycle revenue. [43]
- AI PCs and the first wave of AI200/AI250 data‑center deployments begin to show up more meaningfully in QCT revenue exit‑2026. [44]
- Upside drivers:
- Successful scaling of the data‑center AI lineup into hyperscalers and regional AI players like Humain. [45]
- Snapdragon X2 Elite capturing real share in Windows AI PCs, particularly where battery life and on‑device AI matter more than raw GPU horsepower. [46]
- RISC‑V initiatives bearing fruit in next‑generation Oryon‑plus‑Ventana designs, improving Qualcomm’s economics and architectural flexibility in the second half of the decade. [47]
- Downside risks:
At current levels around the low‑$180s, the market is effectively valuing Qualcomm as:
- A profitable, dividend‑paying 5G and connectivity incumbent,
- With a real but not fully proven option on AI data‑center accelerators, AI PCs, and now RISC‑V CPUs,
- And with moderate upside implied by most 12‑month price targets and DCF models rather than moon‑shot expectations. [50]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. markets.ft.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. s204.q4cdn.com, 12. futurumgroup.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. s204.q4cdn.com, 15. futurumgroup.com, 16. www.webull.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. futurumgroup.com, 21. futurumgroup.com, 22. futurumgroup.com, 23. www.crn.com, 24. www.ctol.digital, 25. www.theregister.com, 26. www.jonpeddie.com, 27. www.theregister.com, 28. www.webull.com, 29. s204.q4cdn.com, 30. stockanalysis.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.quiverquant.com, 33. www.bez-kabli.pl, 34. www.webull.com, 35. www.gurufocus.com, 36. en.wikipedia.org, 37. futurumgroup.com, 38. www.webull.com, 39. www.investopedia.com, 40. futurumgroup.com, 41. www.theregister.com, 42. www.quiverquant.com, 43. futurumgroup.com, 44. www.investopedia.com, 45. www.reuters.com, 46. futurumgroup.com, 47. www.theregister.com, 48. www.gurufocus.com, 49. www.webull.com, 50. stockanalysis.com
