As of December 10, 2025, Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) is trading around $180 per share, up a little over 2% on the day and sitting comfortably in the upper half of its 52‑week range between roughly $121 and $206. [1] The move caps a mid‑teens total return year‑to‑date, modestly ahead of its roughly 11–12% 12‑month gain but still behind the hottest AI semiconductor names. [2]
At the same time, Qualcomm has just delivered double‑digit revenue growth, raised expectations for early 2026, and is leaning hard into AI smartphones, AI PCs and data‑center connectivity, all while digesting a $2.4 billion acquisition of Alphawave Semi to boost its data‑center ambitions. [3]
This article pulls together the key news, forecasts and analyses available as of December 10, 2025, and explains what they may mean for Qualcomm stock over the next year. It is informational only and not investment advice.
Snapshot: Qualcomm Stock Today
- Price (Dec 10, 2025): about $180, up ~2–2.5% on the day. [4]
- 52‑week range: roughly $120.8 (low) to $205.95 (high). [5]
- YTD total return 2025: around 14–17%, depending on the source and methodology. [6]
- 12‑month return: roughly 11–12%, slightly behind some AI‑heavy peers. [7]
- Dividend yield: about 2%, based on the current price and a $0.89 quarterly dividend. [8]
Despite not being the flashiest AI name, Qualcomm is quietly compounding: growing earnings, paying a solid dividend and expanding into new AI‑rich markets.
What’s New on December 10, 2025?
Fresh coverage on December 10, 2025, and the last 24 hours centers on three main themes: relative value vs peers, ongoing Alphawave deal disclosures, and Qualcomm’s role in wireless and AI infrastructure.
1. Zacks: QCOM vs. ASTS – 2026 Wireless “Showdown”
A new Zacks piece published just a few hours ago compares Qualcomm (QCOM) with AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and effectively casts Qualcomm as the steadier 2026 wireless play. [9]
Key takeaways from that analysis:
- Qualcomm’s scale, profitability and diversification (smartphones, automotive, IoT, AI PCs and data center) are highlighted as advantages versus a smaller, more speculative satellite‑connectivity player. [10]
- Its valuation is framed as reasonable relative to growth and balance sheet strength, particularly given its role in both 5G and emerging AI‑enabled devices.
For investors scanning 2026 ideas in wireless and connectivity, this is another data point framing QCOM as a more balanced growth‑and‑income compounder rather than a moonshot.
2. Alphawave Deal: Fresh Forms 8.5 and 8 (DD)
The market is also digesting today’s regulatory disclosures around Qualcomm’s pending Alphawave Semi acquisition:
- A Form 8.5 (EPT/RI) from Goldman Sachs International details client‑serving trades in Qualcomm shares, filed in connection with UK takeover rules. [11]
- A separate Form 8 (DD) from Bank of Montreal discloses Alphawave‑related dealings as a party “acting in concert” with Qualcomm’s offer vehicle. [12]
These filings don’t change Qualcomm’s fundamentals, but they underscore that the $2.4 billion Alphawave deal, agreed in June and slated to close around early 2026, is still very much in progress and drawing cross‑border institutional activity. [13]
3. Ongoing 2026‑Oriented Stock Commentary
Recent pieces in the last few days add more color:
- Motley Fool / Nasdaq asks whether Qualcomm is a buying opportunity for 2026, focusing on its diversification beyond smartphones into automotive, IoT, PCs and data‑center AI and concluding that its multi‑year transition is gaining steam. [14]
- A QuiverQuant analysis highlights Qualcomm’s Q4 2025 revenue of about $11.3 billion, up ~10% year‑over‑year, and outlines how AI‑oriented products and automotive are increasingly important growth drivers. [15]
- A MarketBeat/Nasdaq technical piece argues that “the bulls are back,” with Qualcomm bouncing off the $160 area, maintaining a rising price channel since April and seeing bullish signals from RSI and MACD indicators. [16]
Together, these paint a picture of a stock that’s not in mania territory, but one where sentiment is tilting bullish again as results and guidance back up the AI story.
Earnings Recap: Strong Q4 2025 with an Accounting Twist
A big part of the current Qualcomm narrative comes from its fourth‑quarter and full‑year fiscal 2025 results, released on November 5.
Q4 2025 by the Numbers
According to Qualcomm’s earnings release, SEC filings and follow‑up analysis: [17]
- Q4 revenue: about $11.27–11.3 billion, up ~10% year‑over‑year.
- QCT (chip business) revenue:$9.8 billion, up 13% YoY.
- QTL (licensing) revenue:$1.4 billion, down ~7% YoY.
- Segment detail (within QCT):
- Handsets: ~$7.0 billion, +14% YoY, as premium Android devices recover.
- Automotive: ~$1.1 billion, +17% YoY, a record quarter.
- IoT: ~$1.8 billion, +7% YoY, aided by smart devices and XR wearables. [18]
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.00, up about 12% from $2.69 a year earlier and above the high end of guidance. [19]
On a non‑GAAP basis, this was a classic “beat and raise” style quarter: Qualcomm topped consensus revenue and earnings expectations, with particular strength in handsets and automotive, and signaled confidence heading into fiscal 2026. [20]
The $5.7 Billion Tax Charge
The wrinkle is GAAP earnings:
- Due to new U.S. tax legislation, Qualcomm took a non‑cash tax charge of about $5.7 billion, establishing a valuation allowance against certain deferred tax assets. [21]
- That led to a GAAP net loss of roughly $3.1 billion for Q4 2025 (about ‑$2.89 per share), versus a $2.9 billion profit a year earlier, even though operational performance improved. [22]
- Full‑year fiscal 2025 still showed GAAP revenue of $44.3 billion and non‑GAAP EPS of $12.03, reflecting solid underlying growth. [23]
Analysts largely treat this tax hit as a one‑time accounting event: it negatively skews trailing GAAP EPS but may reduce future cash taxes, improving long‑term cash generation. [24]
Guidance and 2026 Outlook: AI Smartphones, PCs and Auto
Looking ahead, Qualcomm’s guidance for its first fiscal quarter of 2026 and broader commentary are central to the bull case.
Q1 FY 2026 Guidance Tops Expectations
Qualcomm expects for Q1 FY 2026: [25]
- Revenue:$11.8–12.6 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$3.30–3.50
This is above Wall Street estimates that were closer to $11.6 billion in revenue and ~$3.26 in EPS, signaling management’s confidence that: [26]
- The AI‑driven premium smartphone cycle is underway, especially in China and India.
- Qualcomm can sustain robust demand for its Snapdragon 8‑series flagship chips.
- Automotive and IoT will continue to grow double‑digits off a rising base.
Qualcomm has also previously outlined a longer‑term ambition to reach around $22 billion in combined automotive + IoT revenue by 2029, underscoring its aim to be far less reliant on smartphones over time. [27]
AI Everywhere: Smartphones, PCs and Data Centers
If you read through the latest coverage, the unifying thread is Qualcomm’s push to put AI accelerators into virtually every connected device—not just phones.
AI Smartphones and XR Devices
In Q4 commentary and follow‑up tech coverage, Qualcomm emphasized: [28]
- Strong non‑Apple Android demand, especially in premium and flagship phones.
- A growing installed base of “AI‑ready” smartphones, powered by its latest Snapdragon chips.
- Rapid growth in smart glasses and XR, including Meta’s Ray‑Ban and Oakley devices and Samsung’s Galaxy XR, all powered by Qualcomm platforms.
These categories don’t yet rival handsets in scale, but they expand Qualcomm’s AI silicon footprint across wearables and emerging spatial‑computing hardware.
Snapdragon X2 Elite and AI PCs
On the PC side, Qualcomm is doubling down on Windows on ARM and AI laptops:
- The company has announced Snapdragon X2 Elite and X2 Elite Extreme processors, described as some of the fastest and most efficient laptop chips for Windows PCs, with a focus on on‑device AI. [29]
- Analysis from industry firms notes that X2 Elite targets 80+ TOPS of NPU performance, multi‑day battery life and fanless designs, aiming squarely at AI‑heavy productivity and creativity workloads. [30]
- Qualcomm’s own materials highlight AI features like real‑time translation, offline copilots and privacy‑preserving local inference on Snapdragon laptops. [31]
The PC push is strategically important: if Snapdragon‑powered AI PCs gain share against x86 incumbents, Qualcomm could unlock a new multi‑billion‑dollar revenue stream over the next several years.
Alphawave Semi: Building a Data‑Center Spine
Qualcomm’s $2.4 billion acquisition of Alphawave Semi adds another leg to the AI story: data‑center connectivity and custom silicon. [32]
- Alphawave brings high‑speed wired connectivity IP, custom chips and chiplets used in AI training and inference infrastructure. [33]
- Qualcomm aims to combine this with its Oryon CPUs and Hexagon NPUs, positioning itself as a low‑power alternative for AI data centers and edge‑compute deployments. [34]
- Most commentary sees the deal as a logical strategic extension, though investors will be watching execution and integration risk closely.
Separately, Qualcomm is also developing AI200 and AI250 data‑center systems, with Saudi firm Humain flagged as an early customer from 2026–27—another sign that the company sees meaningful opportunity beyond handsets. [35]
Valuation, Analyst Ratings and Technical Picture
Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets
Across several data providers:
- Analysts give Qualcomm a consensus rating in the “Buy” to “Moderate Buy” range. [36]
- Average 12‑month price targets cluster in the high‑$180s to around $190, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from today’s price. [37]
- Some sources note a broader range of targets, from roughly $140 on the low end to $270 on the high end, reflecting disagreement about how fast AI initiatives will translate into earnings. [38]
On the earnings side, estimates compiled by Yahoo Finance point to: [39]
- Fiscal 2026 EPS (current year): around $12.11
- Fiscal 2027 EPS (next year): around $12.41
At roughly $180 per share, that works out to a forward P/E in the mid‑teens (around 15x 2026 earnings), a discount to some higher‑flying AI chip names, but not a deep value multiple either.
Performance vs. AI Chip Peers
Several return and ETF trackers show that: [40]
- Qualcomm’s YTD total return in 2025 is in the mid‑teens, roughly 14–17%.
- The broader VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has returned around 40% YTD, driven by names more leveraged to data‑center GPUs.
- Over a 5‑year horizon, Qualcomm’s total return is positive but more modest than the very top performers in the AI chip space.
This backdrop explains why some commentators describe Qualcomm as sitting “between hype and value”—a solid compounder with AI exposure, but not yet re‑rated to the extremes seen in GPU‑centric names. [41]
Technicals: Bulls Back Above $160
Technical analysis pieces in early December point out that: [42]
- Qualcomm has traded in a rising price channel since April 2025, with each pullback establishing a higher low.
- The $160 area has flipped from resistance earlier in the year to a key support level defended by buyers.
- Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD have recently turned upward again after a mild November correction, a classic sign that bulls are regaining control.
For technically minded traders, that combination supports the view that the primary uptrend remains intact, though resistance around the $200–206 52‑week high looms overhead. [43]
Dividend, Cash Returns and Balance Sheet
Qualcomm remains attractive to income‑oriented investors as well:
- The company has declared a $0.89 per‑share quarterly cash dividend, payable December 18, 2025 to shareholders of record on December 4. [44]
- At roughly $180 per share, that works out to a dividend yield of around 2%. [45]
- Commentary around Q4 earnings notes that Qualcomm generated record free cash flow of roughly $12.8 billion in fiscal 2025 and returned close to 100% of that to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. [46]
Combined with a still‑moderate forward earnings multiple, those cash returns are a key part of the “quality compounder” narrative that many long‑term holders emphasize.
Key Risks Highlighted in Recent Coverage
Recent articles also flag meaningful risks that investors are watching closely:
- Apple Modem Transition
- Apple continues to move toward using more of its own in‑house modem chips, which could eventually result in Qualcomm losing a chunk of its Apple modem business later in the decade. [47]
- Samsung Share Normalization
- Qualcomm expects its share of chips in Samsung’s Galaxy S26 to be around 75%, down from near‑full share in the S25 series, though it remains a major supplier. [48]
- Geopolitics and Regulatory Scrutiny
- Qualcomm has historically faced periodic regulatory and geopolitical pressure, especially involving China and global competition authorities; a recent October article on share pressure after Chinese regulator actions is a reminder that such risks have not disappeared. [49]
- Execution in Data Center and AI PCs
- MarketWatch and other commentators note that while AI data centers and AI PCs are big opportunities, Qualcomm still needs to prove broad market adoption of its AI200/AI250 systems and Snapdragon X‑series PC chips in the face of stiff competition from Nvidia, AMD, Intel and Apple. [50]
- Cyclical Semiconductor Risk
- Like all chip stocks, Qualcomm remains exposed to demand cycles; recent smartphone recovery could slow if macro conditions worsen or AI handset upgrades fail to meet expectations. [51]
Bottom Line: How the Story Looks on December 10, 2025
Putting it all together, today’s snapshot of Qualcomm stock (QCOM) looks like this:
- Fundamentals: Double‑digit revenue growth in Q4 2025, expanding automotive and IoT businesses, and a strong non‑GAAP earnings beat show a company executing well as the AI cycle ramps. [52]
- Strategy: Qualcomm is pushing AI across phones, PCs, XR wearables and now data centers, bolstered by the Alphawave acquisition and its new Snapdragon X2 and AI200/250 platforms. [53]
- Valuation: A mid‑teens forward P/E, high‑$180s to ~$190 consensus price target and ~2% dividend yield position it as a moderately valued AI‑levered compounder, not a speculative high‑flyer. [54]
- Sentiment and technicals: Recent analysis shows improving momentum, with bulls defending the $160 level and riding a rising trend channel, even as the stock consolidates below its prior $200+ highs. [55]
- Risks: Apple and Samsung share normalization, cyclical handset demand, and the challenge of winning meaningful share in data centers and PCs mean the story is not risk‑free. [56]
For readers following Qualcomm on Google News or Discover, the current coverage broadly frames QCOM as a profitable, dividend‑paying AI enabler that may not have the explosive upside of some GPU names, but offers more balanced exposure to AI across devices, cars and infrastructure, with a still‑reasonable valuation and solid shareholder returns.
References
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