Updated: December 20, 2025
Quantum computing stocks are back in the spotlight heading into the final stretch of 2025 — not because the industry suddenly “arrived,” but because Wall Street is beginning to cover the sector in a more formal, price-target-driven way, even as the group remains highly volatile and largely unprofitable.
Over the past week, a wave of fresh analyst initiations and renewed debate about “AI-bubble” spillover has created a classic push-pull setup for quantum pure plays: long-term believers point to government benchmarking programs, rapid hardware roadmaps, and deep-pocketed cloud partners; skeptics point to eye-watering valuations and the reality that mainstream commercial adoption is still years away. [1]
Below is a Dec. 20, 2025 snapshot of what’s moving the quantum computing stock narrative right now — including the latest prices, Wall Street forecasts, and the catalysts most likely to shape sentiment in 2026.
Quantum computing stocks: where prices stand on Dec. 20, 2025
As of the latest available quotes early Dec. 20 (UTC) — following the most recent U.S. trading session — the core U.S.-listed quantum pure plays and the largest quantum-themed ETF were indicated around:
- IonQ (IONQ): $48.48
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI): $23.76
- D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): $26.82
- Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT): $10.89
- Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM): $111.14
These names have a shared trait that matters for investors and readers alike: they can move double digits on headlines, and coverage changes (initiations, upgrades, target hikes) can move sentiment as much as product milestones.
The week’s big story: Wall Street expands coverage of quantum pure plays
Wedbush joins the conversation — and frames quantum as an “AI accelerator”
This week, Investopedia reported that Wedbush initiated coverage across the four U.S.-listed quantum “pure plays,” issuing Outperform ratings for IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave and a Neutral stance for Quantum Computing Inc. Wedbush’s published targets cited by Investopedia:
- IONQ: $60
- RGTI: $35
- QBTS: $35
- QUBT: $12 [2]
The key framing: quantum is still early, but it could become a meaningful slice of compute spending “by the end of the decade,” especially as the AI boom drives demand for new compute paradigms. [3]
Mizuho’s bull case: “Outperform” initiations and ambitious targets
Earlier in December, Mizuho initiated coverage on IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave with Outperform ratings and aggressive targets, per Barron’s:
- IONQ: $90
- RGTI: $50
- QBTS: $46 [4]
Barron’s also summarized a long-range growth thesis: Mizuho expects the quantum market could expand dramatically from today’s small base over the next decade-plus. [5]
Evercore puts a spotlight on D-Wave
Investor’s Business Daily reported that Evercore ISI initiated D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) with an “Outperform” rating and a $44 price target, pointing to D-Wave’s commercial revenue status, liquidity position, and full-stack ecosystem as differentiators. [6]
The result is a rare dynamic for a frontier technology theme: multiple major firms now have published price targets across the same small set of stocks, making “forecast dispersion” a key part of the story.
What’s driving quantum computing sentiment into 2026
1) Government benchmarking is becoming a real catalyst (and a reality check)
One of the most consequential (and underappreciated) signals for the industry is the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI), designed to rigorously test whether approaches can reach “utility-scale” quantum computing by 2033.
As of Nov. 6, 2025, DARPA lists 11 companies in Stage B, including IonQ and IBM, plus private leaders such as Quantinuum and Xanadu, among others. [7]
That list matters for stocks in two ways:
- Positive: being selected validates credibility and can attract partners and customers.
- Constraining: benchmarking forces clearer milestones and could temper hype if progress is slower than markets assume.
Notably, Rigetti is not listed among the Stage B teams on DARPA’s published roster (as of Nov. 6, 2025), a detail that has already started showing up in comparative stock commentary. [8]
2) Cloud giants are doubling down on quantum as part of the “next compute stack”
Quantum stocks often trade on what hyperscalers do next — because cloud platforms are how many enterprise customers first access quantum hardware.
This week, Reuters reported that Amazon restructured leadership around a unit combining AI models, custom silicon (Trainium/Graviton), and “emerging quantum computing initiatives.” [9]
The takeaway for investors: quantum is being bundled into broader infrastructure bets, not treated as a science-fair side project.
3) “Quantum + AI” is increasingly the narrative — and the risk
The upside narrative is simple: quantum could unlock new breakthroughs in optimization, chemistry, cryptography, and materials — and AI could be the killer “compute demand” forcing function.
The downside narrative is equally simple: if investors decide parts of AI are overextended, high-beta themes like quantum can sell off quickly. Investopedia explicitly linked the recent pullback in quantum stocks to broader “AI bubble” worries. [10]
Stock-by-stock: latest fundamentals, catalysts, and forecast snapshots
IonQ (IONQ): best funded, most visible — and under the valuation microscope
IonQ remains the most prominent U.S.-listed quantum pure play by market awareness. On fundamentals, IonQ’s own investor update for Q3 2025 reported:
- Revenue: $39.9 million (222% year-over-year growth)
- Cash, cash equivalents, and investments: $1.5 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025
- Pro-forma cash: $3.5 billion reflecting a $2 billion equity offering that closed Oct. 14, 2025 [11]
That cash position is central to the bull case: quantum hardware is expensive, and runway matters.
On the “market momentum” side, Investor’s Business Daily noted IonQ’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating rising to 86, reflecting strong 52-week performance versus other stocks — a metric traders watch even if they don’t trade purely on technicals. [12]
Where analysts land (as of Dec. 20):
What could move IONQ in 2026:
- Progress on government and commercial milestones, including work highlighted in its Q3 release (e.g., quantum networking initiatives and partnerships). [15]
- Continued integration of acquisitions and any follow-on capital deployment (IonQ has been acquisitive in 2025). [16]
The bear case investors keep repeating: valuation. A Dec. 20 Motley Fool analysis argued IonQ’s price-to-sales multiple remains extremely elevated, requiring massive revenue expansion to “grow into” the current market cap. [17]
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): commercial revenue today, big debate about “how scalable”
D-Wave is the most unique of the pure plays because its core commercial engine has been quantum annealing (optimization-focused) rather than the gate-model approach that many investors associate with long-term “general” quantum computing.
In its Q3 fiscal 2025 results, D-Wave reported:
- Revenue: $3.7 million (up 100% year-over-year)
- Bookings: $2.4 million (up 80% sequentially)
- Consolidated cash balance: $836.2 million [18]
Those numbers are small in absolute dollars — but investors care about direction (revenue traction) and runway (cash).
Where analysts land (as of Dec. 20):
- Evercore ISI: Outperform, $44 target [19]
- Wedbush: $35 target [20]
- Mizuho: $46 target [21]
- Barron’s reported Jefferies also rates D-Wave as a buy-equivalent with a $45 target, and cited an aggressive multi-year growth forecast. [22]
Near-term 2026 catalyst to watch: D-Wave’s own roadmap includes its Qubits 2026 user conference on Jan. 27–28, 2026, which could serve as a headline moment for product and customer updates. [23]
The key debate for 2026: whether the market rewards “commercial usefulness now” (annealing) or “platform potential later” (gate-model). That debate is likely to keep QBTS volatile.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI): high-upside roadmap, but uneven external validation
Rigetti remains a popular retail trading name because it combines ambitious technical targets with high volatility — and because it’s frequently mentioned in “quantum basket” coverage.
A foundational data point for Rigetti’s technology messaging is its Ankaa system line. The company previously announced the launch of its 84-qubit Ankaa-3 system and highlighted plans to expand qubit counts and improve error rates over time. [24]
Where analysts land (as of Dec. 20):
A crucial “credibility” datapoint: DARPA’s published Stage B list (as of Nov. 6, 2025) does not include Rigetti. [27]
That absence doesn’t prove anything about Rigetti’s long-term outcome — but it does influence the near-term narrative when investors compare quantum stocks and ask, “Which approaches are being validated fastest?”
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT): photonics approach, heavy volatility, and capital-market headlines
QUBT is often lumped into the quantum pure-play basket, but its core positioning is distinct: integrated photonics and quantum optics, including foundry-style offerings.
In September, the company announced the closing of an oversubscribed $500 million private placement and said its total cash position was approximately $850 million after closing. [28]
Where analysts land (as of Dec. 20):
- Wedbush initiated coverage with a Neutral rating (per Investopedia) and a $12 target. [29]
Why QUBT divides investors:
- Bulls view the capital raise as strategic runway to commercialize. [30]
- Bears focus on dilution, headline risk, and the fact that the name has been exceptionally volatile (Barron’s noted prior controversy and short-seller allegations in earlier coverage). [31]
The “next wave” angle: more quantum computing stocks may be coming
If 2025 was the year quantum stocks re-entered mainstream “AI-adjacent” trading, 2026 could be the year the investable universe expands.
Reuters reported in November that Canadian firm Xanadu Quantum Technologies plans to go public via a $3.6 billion SPAC deal (Crane Harbor Acquisition Corp.), targeting about $500 million of proceeds including PIPE financing. [32]
This matters because QBI’s Stage B list includes Xanadu — meaning retail investors may soon have a public-market way to invest in a company that DARPA is actively benchmarking. [33]
The valuation reality check: why “quantum computing stock forecasts” are so scattered
The biggest reason quantum price targets vary so widely is that forecasts are trying to price a future market into today’s revenue base — and those are two very different numbers.
A Dec. 20 Motley Fool piece on IonQ highlighted just how stretched multiples can look on trailing sales, and argued that even looking out to 2030 requires very large execution to justify current pricing. [34]
Another recent analysis pointed out that even using 2027 consensus sales estimates, price-to-sales ratios can remain extremely high across the group — a reminder that “downside risk” isn’t theoretical in this theme. [35]
In other words: the sector is increasingly treated like an early-stage platform bet, not a mature earnings story — so sentiment can swing dramatically with rates, risk appetite, and the broader AI trade.
A lower-volatility way to play the theme: QTUM and “platform” incumbents
Not everyone wants single-name exposure to the pure plays — especially given the drawdowns these stocks can experience.
One of the best-known thematic options is the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM), which seeks to track an index covering quantum computing and machine learning-related companies. [36]
The diversification trade-off is straightforward:
- Pros: less single-stock blowup risk; broader exposure to picks-and-shovels and platform winners.
- Cons: diluted upside if one pure play becomes a breakout winner.
QTUM was indicated around $111.14 per the latest available quote.
What to watch next: the 2026 catalyst calendar for quantum stocks
Here are the most practical, near-term “watch items” that could shape quantum computing stocks in early 2026:
- New analyst notes and target changes
Coverage is still fresh, so upgrades/downgrades can move stocks disproportionately. [37] - Government benchmarking milestones (DARPA QBI)
Stage transitions and public milestones can reshape perceptions of which architectures are advancing. [38] - Customer traction and bookings
For D-Wave, bookings and revenue growth remain central to the “commercial now” bull case. [39] - Hyperscaler quantum integration
Amazon’s decision to unify quantum with AI models and custom silicon signals continued strategic investment, and similar moves from other cloud leaders could have spillover effects. [40] - Real research breakthroughs (the credibility fuel)
Advances like improved qubit coherence times keep the “this is getting real” narrative alive — even if commercial timelines remain uncertain. [41]
Bottom line for Dec. 20, 2025
Quantum computing stocks are behaving like what they are: early-stage, narrative-driven equities tied to a technology that could redefine computing — but is still working its way through verification, error correction, and scalable engineering.
The most important development heading into 2026 isn’t a single earnings print. It’s the fact that Wall Street is now putting more formal forecasts and price targets on a small group of highly volatile names — and that those targets are being set alongside serious government benchmarking efforts and deepening investment from cloud giants. [42]
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.darpa.mil, 8. www.darpa.mil, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. investors.ionq.com, 12. www.investors.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.barrons.com, 15. investors.ionq.com, 16. investors.ionq.com, 17. www.fool.com, 18. www.dwavequantum.com, 19. www.investors.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.dwavequantum.com, 24. investors.rigetti.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.barrons.com, 27. www.darpa.mil, 28. quantumcomputinginc.com, 29. www.investopedia.com, 30. quantumcomputinginc.com, 31. www.barrons.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.darpa.mil, 34. www.fool.com, 35. www.fool.com, 36. www.defianceetfs.com, 37. www.investopedia.com, 38. www.darpa.mil, 39. www.dwavequantum.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.livescience.com, 42. www.investopedia.com
