NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:45 p.m. ET — Market closed (Weekend).
Quantum computing stocks are heading into the final trading week of the year with a familiar mix of promise and turbulence—exactly the kind of setup that can amplify both opportunity and risk when liquidity is thin.
In the most recent regular session (Friday), several of the best-known “pure-play” quantum names posted sharp declines even as the broader U.S. market largely drifted in quiet, post-holiday trade. IonQ (IONQ) finished at $46.00, down about 7.6%. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) closed at $22.38, down roughly 8.6%. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) ended at $25.29, down about 8.1%. Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) closed at $10.66, down around 6.5%.
That kind of synchronized pullback is not unusual for the sector: quantum “pure plays” often trade like a single high-beta theme—moving together on sentiment, valuation, and market microstructure—especially when volumes are lighter than normal.
A quiet market backdrop—thin volume, big swings in small caps
Friday’s session came in the heart of the year-end “Santa Claus rally” window, when trading volumes often thin out and day-to-day moves can become exaggerated, particularly in smaller, story-driven stocks. [1]
Even with major indexes close to record territory and weekly gains logged over the holiday-shortened week, the tone described across market coverage was subdued—another ingredient that can make the most speculative corners of tech feel “air-pocket” prone when profit-taking hits. [2]
For quantum stocks, that’s been the late-December reality: big long-term narratives colliding with near-term positioning, and a market that can move prices quickly when participation narrows.
D-Wave (QBTS): commercialization momentum meets valuation math
Among pure plays, D-Wave has increasingly been framed around a specific near-term proposition: commercialization through quantum annealing—aimed at optimization problems—while also working toward longer-term, fault-tolerant, gate-model systems. [3]
In fresh weekend analysis, Nasdaq-published commentary highlighted D-Wave’s emphasis on real production workloads and pointed to operating metrics used by bulls to support the commercialization argument. The piece cited a recent-quarter revenue jump to about $3.7 million, GAAP gross margin above 70%, and stated that the Advantage2 annealing platform is in full production—along with a claim that more than 20.6 million customer problems have run on Advantage2 prototypes. [4]
But the same analysis also underscored the central tension investors keep returning to: valuation. The article described the “10-bagger” outcome as a low-probability path, in part because it argued the stock’s multiple already reflects a significant portion of future growth expectations. [5]
What investors often watch next in QBTS is not just “good news,” but the kind of good news that changes the slope of adoption: new multi-year commercial contracts, repeatable production wins with recognizable enterprise customers, and improving revenue visibility that can justify high multiples over time.
Rigetti (RGTI): institutional sponsorship headlines vs. small-cap reality
Rigetti is another pure-play name that tends to draw aggressive flows, and recent coverage has focused on signs of institutional interest.
A Nasdaq-published article citing SEC filings described large asset managers increasing positions over 2025 and named several hedge funds adding shares in the third quarter—framing the stock as one of the quantum names attracting “big money” attention. [6]
At the same time, the same piece was explicit about the core risk: Rigetti remains a high-valuation story stock relative to its current revenue base and ongoing losses—conditions that can magnify downside moves when the market shifts from “future potential” back to “fundamentals now.” [7]
In shorter-term trading context, Benzinga pointed to the “Holiday Gap” phenomenon—where low volumes between late December and New Year’s can allow retail sentiment to move small-cap stocks more aggressively—and noted Wedbush’s coverage initiation with an Outperform rating and a $35 price target. [8]
Separately, a Nasdaq-hosted Fintel summary also reported Wedbush initiating coverage and presented a range of published price targets and institutional positioning metrics drawn from filings and related data services. [9]
The takeaway for investors heading into Monday: when RGTI moves, it can move fast. That’s as true on the upside as the downside, and it’s why the stock often becomes a trading vehicle during thin-liquidity stretches rather than a slow-and-steady “fundamental” compounder.
IonQ (IONQ): deal flow continues, but the market debates what it’s worth today
IonQ enters the final week of the year with one of the most visible streams of partnerships and international expansion announcements in the publicly traded quantum cohort.
On the commercial and ecosystem-building side, IonQ announced an expanded partnership with Switzerland’s QuantumBasel in mid-December—an agreement IonQ said brings total deal value to over $60 million and extends its on-site presence through 2029. IonQ Chairman and CEO Niccolo de Masi called the expanded partnership “a cornerstone of IonQ’s global strategy,” and QuantumBasel CEO Thomas Landolt emphasized the on-site system as a catalyst for building a community at uptownBasel. [10]
More recently, IonQ also finalized an agreement to deliver its Tempo 100 quantum system to the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), with IonQ stating the system will be integrated into KISTI-6 (“HANKANG”) and described as the first instance of hybrid quantum-classical onsite integration in South Korea. [11]
Yet, the stock’s sharp pullback into the weekend shows that Wall Street is still treating the name as both a technology leader and a valuation question. A Sunday-morning summary circulated on Finviz, attributed to an Insider Monkey writeup, pointed to Wedbush’s initiation with an Outperform rating and a $60 price target, while also arguing IonQ’s pipeline and revenue scaling are key parts of the bull case. [12]
Meanwhile, other market commentary has highlighted the ongoing tug-of-war between long-term commercialization optimism and near-term sentiment. TipRanks’ weekend desk summary noted IonQ’s recent share decline alongside its international deals, describing the gap between strengthening commercial relationships and weakening short-term price action as a defining feature of the group’s volatility. [13]
The mega-cap tailwind: Google’s Willow and NVIDIA’s hybrid push keep quantum in the spotlight
Even when the pure plays are sliding, the broader quantum narrative is being reinforced by progress at the largest technology companies—an important factor because it can keep investor attention on the theme, even if capital rotates among tickers.
Google’s Quantum AI team published research updates in October highlighting its Willow quantum chip and what it described as a “first-ever verifiable quantum advantage” achieved on hardware, with results framed around a “Quantum Echoes” algorithm and a reported speedup factor of 13,000 versus a leading classical approach for the demonstrated task. [14]
NVIDIA, for its part, has been positioning itself as the infrastructure layer connecting classical AI supercomputing and quantum processors. In an October announcement introducing NVQLink, NVIDIA described the architecture as a high-speed interconnect designed to tightly couple GPUs and quantum processors for hybrid systems. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said, “In the near future, every NVIDIA GPU scientific supercomputer will be hybrid,” underscoring the company’s thesis that quantum and classical acceleration will converge in practical workflows. [15]
For investors, this matters because the market often treats quantum as a “platform era” story, similar to early cloud or early AI: the eventual winners may include both specialized hardware companies and the dominant compute platforms that integrate and orchestrate quantum workloads.
Forecasts and debate: what the latest weekend analysis is saying
Across the past 24–48 hours, the published analysis cadence has picked up—less in the form of breaking company news, and more in forward-looking framing:
- Bull case (theme-driven): quantum is shifting from purely academic breakthroughs toward early commercialization, hybrid workflows, and government/enterprise experimentation. That supports optionality—especially for companies that can attach themselves to real customers and recurring contracts. [16]
- Bear case (valuation-driven): many pure-play valuations remain difficult to justify on current revenue, making the group sensitive to any change in market appetite for risk—especially in thin year-end trading. [17]
- Relative preference calls: Zacks/Nasdaq analysis looking into 2026 framed IonQ as having an edge based on “platform breadth” and roadmap progress, while noting D-Wave’s commercial momentum but positioning its upside as more dependent on execution. [18]
One more layer: broader market commentary from MarketWatch argued that quantum is becoming the market’s “next big tech play,” explicitly tying investor attention to recent high-profile advances and the geopolitical and industrial stakes of the technology. [19]
What investors should know before the next session (Monday)
Because U.S. equities are closed today, the next real inflection point for quantum computing stocks is Monday’s reopening—when normal participation returns and weekend narratives are re-priced.
Here are the practical items investors typically monitor into Monday’s open:
- Premarket liquidity and gap risk (especially for small caps).
Names like RGTI, QBTS, and QUBT can gap sharply when liquidity is thin. If you trade these stocks, plan for wider spreads and faster moves at the open than you’d see in mega-cap tech. - Whether Friday’s drop was “theme-wide de-risking” or company-specific.
If the group rebounds together early Monday, that’s often a sign of positioning and liquidity driving price. If one stock continues diverging, investors will start looking for company-specific catalysts or concerns. - Catalyst calendar into early January.
Quantum stocks can react to conference appearances, customer announcements, and government/enterprise partnership headlines. With 2026 approaching, any “real contract” language (multi-year, named customer, dollar value, delivery timing) tends to carry more weight than generic roadmap updates. - Valuation sensitivity remains high.
Even bullish analyses published this weekend repeatedly circle back to the same point: the market is willing to pay for quantum’s future—until it isn’t. That’s why these stocks often trade in waves, with violent pullbacks even in broader uptrends.
The bottom line
Heading into the final sessions of 2025, quantum computing stocks are doing what they do best: compressing huge long-term ambition into short-term volatility. Friday’s across-the-board pullback leaves the group poised for another high-impact open on Monday—especially with a thin year-end backdrop and a steady drumbeat of analysis trying to separate “commercial traction” from “valuation gravity.”
For investors, the next session is less about whether quantum matters—it clearly does, from Google’s research milestones to NVIDIA’s hybrid infrastructure push—and more about which public companies can translate the narrative into durable revenue and repeatable enterprise adoption before the market runs out of patience. [20]
References
1. www.cbsnews.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.ionq.com, 11. investors.ionq.com, 12. finviz.com, 13. www.tipranks.com, 14. blog.google, 15. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.marketwatch.com, 20. blog.google
