- Quantum mania reaches fever pitch. Pure-play quantum companies IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti (NASDAQ: RGTI), D-Wave (NYSE: QBTS) and Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ: QUBT) have soared several-fold in 2025, e.g. Rigetti is up ~4,000% year-over-year [1] [2] and IonQ ~700% [3]. D-Wave and others have also run up strongly (D-Wave ~+2000% YOY [4]). By mid-October 2025, IonQ traded near ~$73–75 (an all-time high) [5], Rigetti around $47 [6], D-Wave about $33, and QUBT ~$24 (all vastly above their 2024 prices).
- Weak fundamentals, big valuations. None of these pure-play quantum firms is yet profitable: annual revenues are in the single-digit millions [7] [8] while market caps run into the tens of billions. Barron’s warns that the quartet of Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave and QUBT has risen nearly 4× on average in a year, “even though they generate relatively little revenue” [9] [10]. McKinsey’s 2035 forecast (quantum could grow from ~$1 B today to $72 B) suggests long-term promise, but experts caution current valuations outstrip fundamentals [11] [12].
- Recent corporate catalysts. In late Sept/early Oct, all three pure-plays hit new highs amid fresh announcements. Rigetti won ~$5.7 M in Novera orders and a $5.8 M U.S. Air Force quantum networking contract [13], while unveiling a 36-qubit “Cepheus” processor and partnerships (e.g. a $100M+ collaboration with Quanta, and an India R&D MOU) [14] [15]. IonQ inked deals and made bold acquisitions (e.g. a $1.08 B deal to buy Oxford Ionics and smaller buys of Vector Atomic, Lightsynq, Capella) [16] [17]. On Oct 7, IonQ also announced a strategic investment in Swedish trucking startup Einride (integrating quantum optimization), which sent IONQ shares up ~10% [18]【52†[16]】. Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) surged after announcing a $750 M equity raise (oversubscribed private placement) and unveiling a photonic quantum encryption prototype [19] [20]. On the same day QUBT’s stock plunged 11% (on dilution fears) before rebounding with the sector’s rally [21].
- Expert caution: “pure speculation.” The headlong rush has drawn warnings. CNBC’s Jim Cramer warned Rigetti is “pure speculation” – “I don’t know whether [it] is worth what it’s trading at” [22]. A Barron’s column similarly cautioned that quantum names have surged ~4× despite “limited” commercial use, and that this “bubble may keep inflating until it is tested by fundamentals” [23] [24]. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore even projects potential plunges: he sees up to ~60% drops for both IonQ and Rigetti if sentiment reverses [25]. Other strategists sound ambivalence – one Bank of America strategist hailed quantum as “the most important technological race of our generation,” yet many analysts still peg quantum stocks as high-risk “lottery ticket” plays [26].
- Analyst ratings & price targets. Wall Street is divided. All covering analysts rate Rigetti a Buy or Strong Buy, but their price targets (~$20–24) lie well below the current $47 level [27], implying ~50% downside. (Exceptions: Benchmark recently raised RGTI to $50, B. Riley $35 [28].) IonQ’s consensus 12-month target (~$58) suggests downside from ~$75 [29], though Needham and B. Riley have targets of $80–$100 [30]. TipRanks highlights other quantum plays: analysts see 20%+ upside in Quantum Computing Inc (QUBT, avg target $32 ≈ +64%) and even in diversified names with quantum exposure – Honeywell (its Quantinuum unit raised $600M, HON target +24%) and Microsoft (MSFT target +23%) [31] [32]. In sum, bulls tout huge growth potential (even Barron’s noted QUBT “could rise 86%” more [33]), while bears point to sky-high P/S ratios and tiny sales (QUBT had just $61K revenue in Q2 against a multi-$B valuation [34]).
- Big-tech context & forecasts. Tech giants and governments are doubling down on quantum: IBM, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Intel and Amazon all pour billions into R&D. IBM’s stock itself has rallied to multi-year highs (~$280) after unveiling a quantum breakthrough and new AI deals [35]. Major forecasts still see quantum as a long-term winner: McKinsey (among others) expects market size to grow from ~$1 B today to ~$72 B by 2035 [36] [37] (BCC Research even projects over $1 trillion in economic impact). But such projections assume quantum computing achieves true scale in the 2030s. For now the sector’s “boom” is fueled largely by speculative mania, as reflected in charts and valuations.
In short: The quantum wave shows no signs of cresting – stocks like IonQ, Rigetti and QUBT continue to race higher on every piece of news. Current share prices, however, embed aggressive future growth that isn’t yet realized. As one commentator put it, many investors are “buying a vision of the future” [38]. The coming months will test whether these parabolic runs are the start of a historic tech breakout or the peak of a frothy bubble. (All data as of mid-October 2025.)
Sources: Recent Barron’s/TipRanks reports [39] [40], TipRanks analyses [41] [42], and TechStock² (TS2.tech) deep-dives on IonQ, Rigetti, QUBT and others [43] [44] [45]. These include expert quotes, SEC filings and up-to-date stock statistics.
References
1. ts2.tech, 2. ts2.tech, 3. ts2.tech, 4. ts2.tech, 5. ts2.tech, 6. ts2.tech, 7. ts2.tech, 8. ts2.tech, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. ts2.tech, 11. ts2.tech, 12. ts2.tech, 13. ts2.tech, 14. ts2.tech, 15. ts2.tech, 16. ts2.tech, 17. ts2.tech, 18. ts2.tech, 19. ts2.tech, 20. ts2.tech, 21. ts2.tech, 22. ts2.tech, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. ts2.tech, 25. www.sharewise.com, 26. ts2.tech, 27. ts2.tech, 28. ts2.tech, 29. ts2.tech, 30. ts2.tech, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. www.tipranks.com, 33. ts2.tech, 34. ts2.tech, 35. ts2.tech, 36. ts2.tech, 37. ts2.tech, 38. ts2.tech, 39. www.tipranks.com, 40. ts2.tech, 41. www.tipranks.com, 42. www.tipranks.com, 43. ts2.tech, 44. ts2.tech, 45. ts2.tech
