Quantum computing stocks are waking up quietly this Wednesday — but behind the small pre‑market moves, there’s a loud new message from Wall Street: massive insider selling, bubble warnings on valuations, and mixed technical signals for 2026.
The four pure‑play names at the center of the theme — IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D‑Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) — have delivered eye‑watering gains over the past year, with rallies ranging from +47% up to +784%, according to a fresh breakdown of the group. [1]
Today, December 10, 2025, pre‑market trading and new research are highlighting both the upside narrative and the rising risk baked into these “pure quantum” stocks.
Quick pre-market snapshot (as of early U.S. pre-market, Dec 10, 2025)
Note: Pre‑market prices and model-based “fair opening” levels change rapidly. The figures below are indicative as of early Wednesday morning U.S. time; they may differ by the opening bell.
IonQ (IONQ)
- Tuesday close: about $54.44, up 0.15% on the day. [2]
- Pre‑market today: roughly $54.13 at 4:39 a.m. ET, around 0.6% below Tuesday’s close. [3]
- Model “fair opening price”: technical analysts at StockInvest expect IonQ “to open at $54.35” on Wednesday, with a projected intraday range of about $52.23–$56.67 based on 14‑day ATR volatility. [4]
Rigetti Computing (RGTI)
- Tuesday close: about $28.23. [5]
- Pre‑market indications: StockInvest’s model sees a “fair opening price” near $27.82, implying a ~1.4% dip vs. the last close, with an expected trading band around $26.77–$29.68 (roughly ±11%). [6]
- Actual pre‑market prints: MarketChameleon shows RGTI last trading around $28.75 in pre‑market hours on decent volume, suggesting early buyers are nudging the stock slightly above Tuesday’s close. [7]
D‑Wave Quantum (QBTS)
- Tuesday close: about $28.30, down ~0.4% on the day. [8]
- Extended/pre‑market trade: MarketBeat data shows D‑Wave around $28.14 at 4:43 a.m. ET, a modest 0.6% decline vs. the official close. [9]
- Model “fair opening price”: StockInvest projects an open near $28.06, with an estimated intraday range of $26.97–$29.63 (±~10%). [10]
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)
- Tuesday close: $13.20, up about 1.42% on the session. [11]
- Pre‑market today:
- Model “fair opening price”: StockInvest expects QUBT “to open at $13.05” with potential intraday swings of roughly ±10%. [14]
Taken together, pre‑market action is subdued — most moves are within 1% of Tuesday’s closing prices — which is a notable contrast to the double‑digit intraday swings this group has seen repeatedly in recent weeks. TechStock²
New headline risk: a $926 million insider-selling warning
The biggest fresh storyline for quantum stocks this morning comes from a new piece by The Motley Fool, syndicated via Finviz, titled “IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D‑Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. Have Issued a $926 Million Warning to Wall Street for 2026.” [15]
Key takeaways from that analysis:
- Over the past five years, insiders at all four pure‑play quantum names have been heavy net sellers:
- IonQ insiders: roughly $574 million in net share sales.
- Rigetti insiders: about $54 million net sold.
- D‑Wave insiders: roughly $264 million net sold.
- Quantum Computing Inc.: around $33 million net sold. [16]
- Combined, that’s nearly $926 million of net insider selling across the four companies. [17]
- Insider buying has been minimal: a few relatively small purchases at IonQ, Rigetti and D‑Wave, and none at QUBT, according to the article’s Form 4 tally. [18]
- The author stresses that insider selling isn’t automatically bearish (taxes and diversification matter), but argues that the lack of meaningful insider buying makes the current valuations more worrisome heading into 2026. [19]
That warning lands on a day when pre‑market prices are calm, but it adds to a growing stack of commentary suggesting the quantum theme may be entering a “show‑me” phase after a euphoric 2025 run.
IonQ (IONQ): pre-market softness, lock-up expiry and a “bubble warning”
Among quantum stocks, IonQ remains the flagship name, thanks to its partnerships with Amazon’s Braket service and Microsoft’s Azure Quantum platform, which let enterprise customers run workloads on IonQ hardware via the cloud. [20]
Two big narrative drivers for IonQ this morning:
1. Lock-up expiration today
A MarketScreener notice from S&P Capital IQ confirms that certain IonQ common shares held by directors and executive officers were under a lock-up from October 10 to December 10, 2025. Those shares become freely tradable today. [21]
- The notice states that these common shares, along with some warrants, options and restricted stock units, were locked up for 61 days, limiting insider sales during that window. [22]
- The lock‑up expiry can increase the potential supply of stock to the market if insiders choose to sell into strength, adding another overhang on top of the broader insider‑selling narrative.
At the same time, MarketScreener shows:
- Last close: $54.44.
- Average analyst target: around $72.35, implying roughly 33% upside from that last close.
- Consensus rating: “Buy” from nine analysts tracked. [23]
So even as lock‑ups roll off, the sell‑side is still signalling bullish long‑term expectations.
2. Fresh valuation caution: “Don’t buy until it falls to this price”
Separately, a new Motley Fool article syndicated on Nasdaq — “Bubble Warning: Don’t Buy IonQ Stock Until It Falls to This Price” — makes a decidedly more skeptical case. [24]
Key points from that piece:
- IonQ’s own guidance calls for $106–$110 million in 2025 revenue, yet the stock trades at a market cap of around $18.3 billion — a price-to-sales ratio near 166×. [25]
- For comparison, the article notes that Nvidia, arguably the flagship AI hardware vendor, trades at roughly 20× forward sales, meaning IonQ’s multiple is more than eight times higher. [26]
- To drop to a ~20× sales multiple on that revenue guidance, IonQ’s market cap would need to fall by about 88%, implying a share price somewhere in the $6–$7 range (assuming a similar share count). [27]
The author doesn’t argue that quantum computing is a dead end — they note the huge potential for AI acceleration, cybersecurity, and simulation — but frames IonQ’s current price as “an implosion waiting to happen” if execution or investor sentiment falter. [28]
Put together, IonQ’s pre‑market dip, lock‑up expiry, and sharp valuation debate make it the most watched quantum name before the opening bell today.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI): hot momentum, colder fundamentals
Rigetti has been one of the wildest rides in the entire market:
- Over the trailing period highlighted in the new Motley Fool/Finviz piece, Rigetti has surged about 784%, far outpacing IonQ’s 47% gain. [29]
- A separate roundup on TS2.Tech notes that since early 2023, Rigetti is up more than 3,700%, prompting comparisons to “the Nvidia of quantum computing.” TechStock²+1
But under the hood, the story is more nuanced:
- A November Q3 2025 earnings update showed results that missed Wall Street expectations, and a delay on a DARPA “Phase B” milestone, according to coverage from Seeking Alpha and a Zacks note. [30]
- TS2.Tech summarises Rigetti’s valuation at around 1,080× sales, paired with D‑Wave at ~325× sales — levels it calls “unsustainable” even though analyst price targets still imply roughly 40%+ upside for both names. TechStock²
Technically:
- StockInvest rates RGTI as a “Sell candidate,” citing negative short‑term signals and expecting Wednesday’s trading range to be wide, with swings of roughly ±10.9% around the predicted open. [31]
- Options‑market data (for example, the expected move on weekly RGTI options expiring December 12) also point to high implied volatility, with a ±$2.95 range (over 10% of the share price) priced in for just five days. [32]
Yet there are still bullish datapoints:
- A recent CoinCentral piece notes that Ken Griffin’s Citadel Advisors disclosed new positions in both Rigetti and D‑Wave during Q3 2025, adding hedge‑fund credibility to the quantum trade even as it flags valuation risk. TechStock²
In pre‑market trade, Rigetti hovers in the high‑$20s, with models pointing slightly lower but real‑time prints indicating a modest uptick versus Tuesday’s close, underscoring how split opinion is on this stock. [33]
D‑Wave Quantum (QBTS): “Moderate Buy” with wild swings
D‑Wave has delivered some of the most dramatic moves among quantum stocks:
- A recent Motley Fool analysis highlighted that D‑Wave’s share price crashed nearly 40% in November, even after a huge run earlier in 2025. [34]
- Another piece from 24/7 Wall St. suggested D‑Wave “could soar 140% in one year” if the bull case plays out, emphasising how wide the range of outcomes is. [35]
Analysts, collectively, are still leaning bullish:
- MarketBeat shows 14 analysts covering QBTS, with 12 rating it “Buy,” one “Hold” and one “Sell”, giving a “Moderate Buy” consensus. [36]
- The average 12‑month price target is $29.85, about 5.4% above the current ~$28.30 share price, but the range is huge — from $9 on the low end to $44 at the top. [37]
- Recent initiations include Evercore ISI launching coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a $44 target, and several banks lifting their targets into the $35–$41 zone. [38]
Technicals this morning:
- StockInvest’s model expects an open around $28.06 with a potential session band of $26.97–$29.63, and currently classifies D‑Wave as a short‑term “Buy candidate” based on its signal set. [39]
- MarketBeat’s extended‑hours data shows QBTS trading near $28.14 at 4:43 a.m. ET, just a fraction below Tuesday’s official close of $28.30. [40]
The overall picture: Wall Street sees upside, but the volatility is structural, not incidental — something echoed in multiple recent notes that flag D‑Wave’s swings as being amplified by options activity and retail flows. TechStock²+1
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT): upgraded to “buy candidate” after capital raise
QUBT is the smallest of the four pure‑play quantum names by market cap, but it often trades like a leveraged sidecar on the theme:
- Over the trailing year, QUBT is up roughly 77%, far behind Rigetti and D‑Wave but still a strong move. [41]
- A recent TS2.Tech summary notes that speculative flows have increasingly spilled into smaller quantum names like QUBT as the trade matured. TechStock²
On the corporate side:
- In October, Quantum Computing Inc. announced an oversubscribed private placement expected to raise about $750 million in gross proceeds, greatly increasing its cash resources but also diluting existing shareholders. [42]
- QuiverQuant highlighted a more recent 21% pre‑market surge following a strategic roadmap update, underscoring how violently the stock can move on news. [43]
Technically and pre‑market:
- StockInvest now rates QUBT as a “Buy candidate,” noting that several short‑term indicators have turned positive even though the stock is still in a broader falling trend. The site says its analysis was upgraded from “Sell” to “Buy” and pegs a “predicted fair opening price” of $13.05 for today. [44]
- Live quotes from Investing.com and TradingView show QUBT trading around $13.21, essentially flat to slightly up compared with Tuesday’s close, while MarketChameleon reports pre‑market trades near $13.28 on heavy volume. [45]
QUBT’s setup heading into the open looks like classic high‑beta speculation: improved technicals in the short term, a bolstered balance sheet from its capital raise, but a still‑early‑stage business facing the same demand, competition and execution questions as its larger peers.
Technical outlook: “Quantum stocks poised for a breakout” — or a hangover?
Layered over the fundamentals is a fresh technical call from Zacks Investment Research, highlighted on TradingView under the title “Quantum Stocks Poised for a Fresh Breakout (IONQ, QBTS, RGTI).” [46]
That analysis argues:
- After a parabolic run earlier in 2025 and another options‑fuelled spike in recent weeks, the group has been consolidating rather than collapsing. [47]
- IonQ, D‑Wave and Rigetti all show variations of “bull flag” or consolidation patterns just below recent highs, with the potential for new breakouts if they clear near‑term resistance levels. [48]
- However, the note also cautions that valuation risk is intense and that options markets and leveraged ETFs (such as the 2× long pure‑quantum ETF QPUX and the 2× inverse IonQ ETF IONZ) are magnifying both upside and downside moves. TechStock²
In other words, the tape is still bullish, but the margin for error is getting thinner.
What today’s pre-market action tells us about quantum stocks
Putting all of this together, here’s what December 10, 2025 pre‑market trading in quantum stocks is signalling:
- Price action is calm; the narrative is not.
Pre‑market moves in IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave and QUBT are all within about 1% of Tuesday’s closes, but new research is raising big questions about insider behaviour and bubble‑like valuations heading into 2026. [49] - Insiders and lock-ups are coming into focus.
The nearly $926 million in net insider selling across the four names, plus today’s IonQ lock‑up expiry, give traders a concrete catalyst to watch for potential selling pressure from those closest to the companies. [50] - Analysts still see upside — but with wide error bars.
Consensus targets on IonQ and D‑Wave imply mid‑single to double‑digit upside from current levels, yet many notes simultaneously highlight that the price‑to‑sales multiples are far above historical comfort zones, even under aggressive growth assumptions. [51] - Volatility is structural and amplified by leverage.
Recent coverage of leveraged quantum ETFs and hyper‑active options trading makes clear that double‑digit daily swings are part of the design now, not anomalies. Traders are increasingly expressing quantum views through 2× long/short funds and short‑dated options, which can accelerate both melt‑ups and drawdowns. TechStock²+1 - Quantum technology is progressing — but profits are still on the horizon.
Behind the market noise, there is real technical progress: IonQ’s international partnerships; Rigetti’s fidelity milestones; D‑Wave’s Advantage2 system and growing commercial deals; QUBT’s capital raise to fund development. Yet revenue bases remain small, and the path to fault‑tolerant, broadly commercial quantum computing is still measured in years, not quarters. [52]
Bottom line (and a word of caution)
For traders watching “Quantum Stocks Pre‑Market Today” on December 10, 2025, the message is clear:
- Short‑term: The group is in a pause, not a panic. Pre‑market prices look like consolidation after huge YTD gains.
- Medium‑term: Insider‑selling data and ultra‑high valuation multiples are raising the bar for future execution — particularly for IonQ.
- Long‑term: Quantum computing still has the potential to unlock hundreds of billions of dollars in economic value, but today’s stock prices already assume a lot of that success. [53]
As always, this article is informational, not investment advice. Quantum stocks and leveraged products can move 10–20% in a single session, and it’s important to consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification before making any decisions.
References
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