Disclaimer: This article is for information and news purposes only and should not be treated as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.
Reliance Industries share price today: holding near the top of its range
Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) spent most of Tuesday, 2 December 2025, trading just below its recent highs, with a mildly negative bias but still firmly in “strong stock” territory.
Business Standard’s live quote page showed RIL at ₹1,551.35 on the BSE at 11:26 am IST, down about 0.94% from the previous close of ₹1,566.10. [1] INDmoney’s feed had the NSE price at ₹1,555.20 at 10:56 am IST, a 0.7% intraday decline. [2] In other words, the stock is essentially oscillating in a narrow band around ₹1,550–1,560.
Even after this minor pullback, RIL remains very close to its 52‑week high around ₹1,581 and far above its 52‑week low near ₹1,115, hit in April 2025. [3] The stock’s market capitalisation is now just above ₹21 lakh crore, keeping Reliance firmly in the “India’s most valuable company” conversation. [4]
On trailing returns, Business Standard data shows: [5]
- 1 month: ~4.6% gain
- 3 months: ~13.8% gain
- 12 months: ~18.8% gain
A separate Business Standard analysis last week noted that in calendar 2025 so far, RIL has rallied about 27%, versus roughly 8.4% for the Sensex, after the stock hit a 16‑month high of ₹1,560 on 25 November and briefly reclaimed a ₹21 trillion market cap. [6]
On valuation, there is some variation across data providers, but the broad picture is consistent:
- Business Standard’s consolidated snapshot: P/E ~21.6x, P/B ~2.4x, dividend yield ~0.35%. [7]
- INDmoney (S&P Global data) shows: P/E ~25.5x, P/B ~3.18x, ROE ~6.7%, dividend yield ~0.43%. [8]
Put simply, Reliance today is priced at low‑to‑mid 20s earnings multiples and roughly 2.5–3x book, with a modest cash yield, reflecting its perceived status as a long‑term compounder rather than a deep value play.
Why Reliance is in focus on 2 December 2025
On every “stocks to watch” list
Ahead of Tuesday’s session, Reliance popped up in multiple “stocks to watch today” lists from Business Standard, The Financial Express, ET Now and Business Today for 2 December. [9]
The common threads behind the renewed focus:
- The stock is trading very close to its 52‑week high after a strong year. [10]
- There is elevated derivatives activity around the December expiry (more on that in a moment). [11]
- Fresh corporate developments in media and AI infrastructure that could reshape medium‑term earnings.
Star Television–Jiostar media merger
On the corporate side, Reliance recently completed the merger of Star Television Productions Limited, a subsidiary, with Star India Private Limited (now Jiostar India Private Limited), effective 30 November 2025, according to stock‑exchange disclosures collated by Business Standard. [12] INDmoney frames the combined entity as a leading media platform valued at roughly $8.5 billion. [13]
The move further consolidates Reliance’s media holdings and fits neatly into its broader Jio‑centric content and distribution strategy: telecom pipes, streaming platforms, sports rights and production assets under one umbrella.
The $11 billion AI data centre bet
Another major development feeding into today’s narrative is Reliance’s push into AI‑native data centres. Digital Connexion – a joint venture between Reliance Industries, Brookfield Asset Management and Digital Realty – has signed an agreement to invest $11 billion by 2030 in a 1 gigawatt AI‑optimised data centre campus on 400 acres in Visakhapatnam. [14]
The project positions Reliance at the heart of India’s emerging AI infrastructure cluster:
- Google recently announced plans for about $15 billion of AI infra spend in Visakhapatnam. [15]
- Amazon Web Services is targeting $12.7 billion of cloud investments in India by 2030. [16]
Morgan Stanley’s recent “Investment Cycle 4.0” note on Reliance explicitly ties AI‑ready data centres with the company’s new‑energy build‑out, arguing that GW‑scale green‑powered data centres could deliver double‑digit returns on capital and become a key value driver through 2028. [17]
Derivatives: heavy put activity and high‑value trading
Options and futures data add a more cautious, short‑term flavour to the story. MarketsMojo highlights:
- “Heavy put option activity” in Reliance ahead of the December 2025 expiry, concentrated near current market prices.
- High‑value trading within a relatively narrow cash‑market range, with notable institutional participation. [18]
This pattern usually means large investors are either hedging an existing long position or positioning for near‑term volatility, even if their structural view remains positive. It fits with a stock that has run up strongly through 2025 and is now consolidating just below new highs.
Q2 FY26 results: double‑digit growth, noisy bottom line
Reliance’s latest reported quarter is Q2 FY26 (quarter ended 30 September 2025), and those numbers are still the fundamental anchor for current valuations.
Headline consolidated performance
According to Bajaj Broking’s summary of the unaudited consolidated results: [19]
- Revenue from operations: ₹2,58,898 crore
- Up 10.0% year‑on‑year
- Up 4.1% quarter‑on‑quarter
- Total income: ₹2,63,380 crore
- Up 9.6% YoY
- EBITDA (approx.): ₹48,480 crore
- Up 16.0% YoY
- Profit after tax: ₹22,146 crore
- Up 15.9% YoY
- Down 27.8% QoQ, largely due to a sharp drop in “Other income” from ₹15,119 crore in Q1 FY26 to ₹4,482 crore in Q2. [20]
So the core operations are improving, but the headline profit is noisy quarter‑to‑quarter because of swings in non‑operating items.
MarketsMojo points out that while operating profit and profit before tax hit record levels, the Q2 FY26 net profit is about 10.9% below the average of the previous four quarters, which they classify as a “flat” short‑term financial trend rather than a clean acceleration. [21]
Segment breakdown: O2C, digital and retail
Bajaj Broking’s segmental analysis and Reliance’s own analyst presentation highlight three big engines: [22]
- Oil‑to‑Chemicals (O2C):
- Revenue around ₹1,60,558 crore, up 3.7% QoQ, helped by higher throughput and better refining margins.
- Retail:
- Revenue in the ballpark of ₹90,000+ crore (Reliance’s slides cite gross revenue of ₹90,018 crore), up high‑single‑digit QoQ and roughly low‑20s YoY, driven by strong festive demand. Grocery and fashion/lifestyle grew 23% and 22% YoY respectively, while consumer electronics grew about 18% YoY.
- Retail EBITDA came in at around ₹6,816 crore, with an EBITDA margin of 8.6%. [23]
- Digital Services (Jio Platforms):
- Revenue around ₹43,600 crore, up ~4% QoQ and roughly 15% YoY. [24]
On the connectivity side (RJio), the Q2 FY26 analyst deck shows: [25]
- Subscriber base: 506.4 million
- ARPU: ₹211.4 per month (up from ₹195.1 a year ago)
- Total data consumption: 58.4 billion GBs in the quarter
- Per‑user data consumption: 38.7 GB per month
- 5G now accounts for ~50% of wireless traffic, and Jio is connecting about 1 million new homes per month via fibre and AirFiber.
For Jio Platforms Ltd (JPL) overall, Q2 FY26: [26]
- Gross revenue: ₹42,652 crore (up 15% YoY)
- Operating revenue: ₹36,332 crore (up 15% YoY)
- EBITDA: ₹18,757 crore (up ~18% YoY)
- EBITDA margin: 51.6%, 140 bps higher YoY
Management reiterates that JPL is “on track to deliver 2x EBITDA between FY2024–2028”, effectively positioning digital as the most scalable earnings engine in the group. [27]
“Fourth monetisation wave”: the 2026 narrative
If there’s one phrase capturing the Street’s thinking on Reliance today, it is “Investment Cycle 4.0” or the “fourth monetisation wave”.
A detailed Economic Times piece summarising Morgan Stanley’s work argues that: [28]
- Since Covid, Reliance has invested about $80 billion across 5G, retail, new energy and infrastructure.
- From 2026 onwards, these investments are expected to meaningfully translate into operating cash‑flow growth, rather than adding to leverage.
- This is the fourth large capex‑to‑monetisation cycle in 30 years, but unlike previous waves, capex of $14–16 billion per year over the next three years is projected to be funded by internal cash flows, keeping net debt comfortable.
Morgan Stanley’s base case:
- Rates Reliance Overweight with a sum‑of‑the‑parts target of ₹1,701. [29]
- Models ~11% earnings CAGR between FY25 and FY28.
- Sees energy (O2C, E&P, new energy), retail and digital contributing roughly similar slices of group net asset value by FY27 – a much more balanced Reliance than the old refining‑heavy avatar.
A key part of this thesis is the integration of new energy and AI infrastructure:
- Morgan Stanley values the new‑energy business at about $25 billion, assuming a fully integrated 10 GW solar manufacturing chain by 2026 plus extensions into batteries, green hydrogen and AI‑linked power. [30]
- For every 1 GW of Gen‑AI data‑centre capacity, their “AI math” suggests $12–15 billion of investment and ~11% return on capital, assuming GPU‑as‑a‑service and partnerships with hyperscalers. [31]
Reliance’s own analyst slides reinforce this, with an explicit “AI Everywhere For Everyone” vision for its new Reliance Intelligence platform, GW‑scale green‑powered data centres in Jamnagar and a dedicated AI cloud region built with Google. [32]
What brokerages and consensus are saying right now
Analyst consensus: clear “Buy”, modest implied upside
Data compiled by S&P Global and published on INDmoney shows 37 sell‑side analysts covering RIL: [33]
- 94.44% rate the stock “Buy”,
- 5.56% rate it “Sell” or “Hold”,
- The average 12‑month target price is ₹1,696.89, with
- High: ₹2,020
- Low: ₹1,370
Versus the current cash price near ₹1,555, that implies an average upside of roughly 8–9% over 12 months, assuming forecasts hold. [34]
A separate aggregation by Traders Union, which combines multiple analyst sources, shows a similar average target around ₹1,689 and labels the consensus rating “Strong Buy”. [35]
Of course, these are estimates, not guarantees, and they rely heavily on sum‑of‑the‑parts valuations for unlisted units like Jio, Reliance Retail and the new‑energy platform.
Jefferies: Buy, target ₹1,785, focus on retail & AI optionality
A recent Jefferies note, covered by NDTV Profit, keeps a “Buy” rating on RIL while nudging the target price to ₹1,785 from ₹1,780, implying roughly 16% upside from late‑November trading levels. [36]
Jefferies highlights that:
- All three main businesses – digital, retail and O2C – are delivering double‑digit earnings growth in FY26 to date.
- Retail is benefiting from strong festive demand, and FMCG has grown 100% YoY for six straight quarters, with a revenue run‑rate of about $2.4 billion, making it larger than several established Indian FMCG peers on certain metrics. [37]
- JioMart’s daily orders are up roughly 200%, helped by dark‑store roll‑outs and faster fulfilment. [38]
- The data‑centre partnership with Google and potential retail demerger in FY27–28 add further “optionality” to the valuation.
JP Morgan: Overweight, target ₹1,727, positive into 2026
A Times of India summary of JP Morgan’s stance notes that the brokerage: [39]
- Maintains an “Overweight” rating on RIL.
- Has raised its target price to ₹1,727 (from ₹1,695).
- Points out that RIL is up about 27% in 2025, outpacing the Nifty’s ~17% return, yet still trades at roughly a 15% “holding‑company discount” vs peers like Avenue Supermarts (DMart) and Bharti Airtel.
- Sees three key reasons to stay constructive into 2026:
- Valuations remain attractive relative to peers.
- The earnings drag from weaker refining/petchem in FY24–25 is largely behind.
- A set of 2026 catalysts – Jio IPO, tariff hikes, new‑energy commissioning and more stable retail growth – could support further upside.
BNP Paribas, Motilal Oswal, Morgan Stanley: 1,700–1,785 zone
Business Standard’s “16‑month high” piece collates several bullish broker views: [40]
- BNP Paribas India:
- Rating: Outperform
- Target: ₹1,785
- Thesis: RIL has successfully transformed from a legacy O&G company into a diversified digital‑and‑retail‑led conglomerate, with 5G leadership, KG‑D6 gas field revival and green‑energy projects providing growth vectors.
- Motilal Oswal:
- Rating: Buy
- Target: ₹1,765
- Highlights the impending 40 GWh battery giga‑factory in Jamnagar, expected to be commissioned in early CY26, and the 100 GW renewable power plan as long‑term competitive moats in new energy.
- Morgan Stanley (Economic Times report):
- Rating: Overweight
- Target: ₹1,701
- Frames RIL as central to India’s AI + new‑energy + consumption story over the next cycle. [41]
Valuation, performance and technical backdrop
Expensive or reasonable?
INDmoney’s long‑term valuation snapshot shows Reliance’s current P/E of about 25.5x is: [42]
- Well above the 5‑year trough near 10x (October 2019),
- Below the 5‑year peak around 36x (October 2020),
- Still at a discount to the industry P/E (~38.5x) for the broader refineries/energy group.
Business Standard’s consolidated fundamentals, with P/E ~21.6x and P/B ~2.4x, tell a similar story: Reliance is not “cheap” in absolute terms, but also not at the euphoric multiples it commanded during the 2020 digital fund‑raising frenzy. [43]
Performance vs indices
Based on Business Standard return metrics: [44]
- Over 1 month and 3 months, RIL has outperformed both the Sensex and Nifty by a comfortable margin.
- Over 3 years, however, RIL’s ~26% total return trails the Sensex’s ~36–40%, suggesting that the big outperformance is more recent and partly a catch‑up from a slower 2022–23.
MarketsMojo’s risk analysis notes: [45]
- 1‑year volatility of the stock is about 20%, versus ~12.5% for the Sensex – meaning Reliance is still meaningfully more volatile than the index.
- On a risk‑adjusted basis, RIL’s 1‑year Sharpe‑like ratio (0.22) is slightly weaker than the index’s 0.29, indicating investors took more volatility for similar returns over that horizon.
Technicals and F&O positioning
Technically, MarketsMojo marks the stock as having turned “mildly bullish” since mid‑October 2025, trading above its 5, 20, 50 and 200‑day moving averages, but with some resistance around the 100‑day average. [46] INDmoney’s in‑house engine also labels the technical setup “bullish” as of 2 December. [47]
That said, the heavy put‑option open interest and narrow‑range high‑value trading highlighted by MarketsMojo suggest that, at least into the December F&O expiry, large market participants are positioned for either sideways or choppy action rather than a runaway breakout. [48]
Key triggers for 2026 and beyond
Across broker research and company disclosures, several medium‑term catalysts keep coming up:
- Jio tariff hikes and IPO
- Retail monetisation & FMCG scale‑up
- Morgan Stanley and Jefferies see retail EBITDA growing in the mid‑teens with rising contributions from fashion, quick commerce and private‑label FMCG. [51]
- Jefferies specifically flags FMCG as “ripe for value discovery in CY26”, and some reports expect a retail demerger or listing in 2027–28 as a key upside lever. [52]
- New‑energy commissioning
- Motilal Oswal expects the first battery giga‑factory in Jamnagar (40 GWh capacity) to be commissioned in early CY26, with initial output likely used for captive storage to support RIL’s broader 100 GW renewable power plan. [53]
- AI data‑centre build‑out
- The $11 billion Digital Connexion campus in Visakhapatnam is part of a much larger AI infra wave that Morgan Stanley estimates could attract $100+ billion of investments into India’s data‑centre market by 2027. [54]
- Combined with RIL’s own GW‑scale data centre plans in Jamnagar, the AI thesis is that Reliance could become a vertically integrated provider of green power + data‑centre capacity + connectivity + AI services.
- Media and content consolidation
- The Star Television–Jiostar merger within the Reliance fold, valued at around $8.5 billion by some estimates, sets up a more coherent media platform spanning broadcast, streaming and production. [55]
- Macro backdrop
- Morgan Stanley’s India strategy team has put Reliance in its 10‑stock “focus portfolio” while forecasting a potential Sensex level of 95,000–107,000 by December 2026 in their base/bull cases. [56]
Risks and what could go wrong
Despite the compelling story, several risks could upset the bullish consensus:
- Commodity and refining cycle risk
Morgan Stanley’s base case assumes core refining margins of $11–12 per barrel through FY27–28. If new refining capacity comes onstream faster than expected, or if global demand softens, O2C earnings could undershoot, compressing group returns. [57] - Execution risk on mega‑capex
Delivering acceptable returns on $80+ billion of post‑Covid capex, plus new data‑centre and new‑energy projects, will require smooth execution across multiple technologies and regulatory regimes. Any delays, cost overruns or technological shifts (for example in battery chemistries or AI hardware) could dent the equity story. [58] - Regulatory risk
Telecom tariffs, spectrum policy, environmental regulation, data‑protection norms and energy‑transition policies all have the potential to hit one or more of Reliance’s verticals simultaneously. - Balance‑sheet risk if cash‑flow forecasts miss
The current re‑rating case is explicitly built on capex being funded by growing operating cash flows, not new debt. If earnings growth undershoots (for example due to slower tariff hikes or a weaker refining cycle), Reliance might either cut back on growth projects or accept higher leverage than today’s comfortable levels. [59] - Valuation and expectation risk
After a 27% run‑up this year, valuations now embed a lot of optimism about:- a successful Jio IPO,
- timely retail/new‑energy monetisation, and
- an AI/data‑centre build‑out that delivers mid‑teens returns. [60]
Any disappointment on timelines or profitability could result in meaningful de‑rating.
What this means for investors
From a news and analysis standpoint, 2 December 2025 finds Reliance in an interesting place:
- The stock is hovering just below fresh highs, with strong trailing returns and valuations that are demanding but not extreme. [61]
- Near‑term flows and derivatives hint at cautious positioning around the December expiry, not outright euphoria. [62]
- The 2026 narrative – Jio tariff hikes and IPO, retail and FMCG scale‑up, new‑energy commissioning and AI‑native data centres – has convinced most large brokerages to assign Buy/Overweight ratings with targets clustered around ₹1,700–1,800. [63]
For long‑term, diversified investors, Reliance remains a core index‑heavyweight with multiple secular growth levers, but one where much of the easy re‑rating from “cheap energy stock” to “platform conglomerate” has already happened.
For short‑term traders, the combination of proximity to 52‑week highs, heavy put activity, and a cluster of event risks in 2026 suggests a more tactical, risk‑managed approach, rather than blindly chasing the rally. [64]
References
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