Mumbai, Jan 16, 2026, 16:20 IST
- Reliance is due to post its December-quarter numbers on Friday, with brokerages flagging steady growth.
- Higher refining margins and a gradual lift in Jio’s user spending are expected to do most of the work.
- Retail and upstream oil and gas are seen as the main soft spots, with quick-commerce losses in the spotlight.
Reliance Industries is set to report its December-quarter results later on Friday, with analysts looking for a modest pickup in earnings as gains in refining and telecom help offset slower retail trends.
The report is a pulse-check for India’s biggest corporate bellwether at a moment when investors are split on what matters more: the near-term boost from better refining margins or the longer grind in consumer businesses.
Traders are also watching for management cues on spending plans, especially around quick commerce and the group’s energy transition push, where cash burn and timelines can quickly become the story.
Brokerages expect revenue to come in at 2.54 trillion to 2.56 trillion rupees, with net profit forecast at 185.5 billion to 187.0 billion rupees. Upstox said implied options pricing points to about a 3.7% move around the results, and noted the stock has fallen 7.1% so far this month.
A preview by Business Standard showed estimates clustering around high single-digit growth in operating profit, with Kotak Institutional Equities pegging consolidated EBITDA at 478.7 billion rupees. The company’s board is scheduled to meet on Friday to approve unaudited results for the quarter and nine months ended Dec. 31, 2025, the report said, citing an exchange filing.
The oil-to-chemicals unit, Reliance’s refining and petrochemicals engine, is expected to lead, helped by stronger product “cracks” — the gap between fuel prices and crude — and a weaker rupee, according to notes cited in an Economic Times live blog. Nuvama, for example, forecast consolidated EBITDA growth of about 9% year-on-year, with O2C EBITDA up 13% on improving refining margins. The Economic Times
In telecom, analysts are focused on ARPU — average revenue per user — as a proxy for pricing power and customer spending. Several brokerages cited in the previews see blended ARPU near 214 rupees a month and continued subscriber additions at Reliance Jio, which competes with Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea.
Retail is expected to grow in high single digits, but the margin line is where investors are tense. Brokerages have pointed to quick-commerce expansion and softer demand as near-term headwinds, while also adjusting for the demerger of Reliance Consumer Products in some forecasts.
Upstream oil and gas is seen as a drag again, with brokerages flagging weaker realisations and softer output. Petrochemicals, too, remain the problem child in most notes, with spreads described as subdued even as refining improves.
“Any disappointment in retail execution or upstream realisations could keep near-term stock reactions volatile despite stable consolidated numbers,” Jickson Sajee, a research analyst at INVasset PMS, said, according to a LiveMint report. Reliance shares ended up 0.17% at 1,461 rupees on the BSE ahead of the announcement, the report added. mint
But the quarter could still turn messy if refining margins cool faster than expected or if quick-commerce losses bite harder than investors have priced in. With estimates spread wide across brokerages, a small miss in one segment can look bigger once it hits the consolidated numbers.
