Retail Bitcoin Activity Hits Historic Lows as Binance Bets Its Future on Abu Dhabi

As Bitcoin trades around the psychologically important $90,000 level, the crypto market is flashing a paradox: institutional demand and regulatory wins are accelerating just as retail on‑chain activity slumps to multi‑year lows.

Fresh data on 9 December 2025 show Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC have flat‑lined for two years, CryptoQuant’s retail flow metrics are printing “historic lows,” and yet Binance has just secured one of the most powerful regulatory platforms in its history in Abu Dhabi. ^[1]

This is not just another market blip. It’s a structural shift in who owns Bitcoin, how they hold it, and which jurisdictions now host the industry’s biggest trading hub.

Key Takeaways at a Glance

0.1+ BTC addresses have stopped growing for the first time in Bitcoin’s history, slipping about 2.3% from their December 2023 peak despite price rallies. ^[2]
Retail “shrimps” (<1 BTC) are pulling back from active trading: their daily deposits to Binance have collapsed from ~2,675 BTC in late 2022 to about 411 BTC now, one of the lowest levels ever recorded. ^[3]
Roughly 400,000 BTC (over 2% of supply) have left centralized exchanges in the last 12 months, signalling strong long‑term holding – often via ETFs and custodians instead of personal wallets. ^[4]
Binance has secured a “global” license under Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), becoming the first crypto exchange authorized as a Recognized Investment Exchange, Recognized Clearing House and Broker‑Dealer for its worldwide platform, with operations due to shift to Abu Dhabi in early 2026. ^[5]
On‑chain indicators show stress but also opportunity: miner capitulation (Hash Ribbons), a “complete reset” in market profitability (SOPR), and macro‑liquidity forecasts suggest the current consolidation could precede an extended bull phase into 2027. ^[6]

Binance’s Globe‑Trotting Empire Finally Plants a Flag in Abu Dhabi

From regulatory dodging to regulatory showcase

An in‑depth Protos investigation published on 9 December 2025 maps Binance’s remarkable – and often controversial – journey across jurisdictions. Since launching in China in 2017 with a $15 million BNB ICO, Binance has repeatedly shifted its operational “home” to stay ahead of regulators: from Shanghai to Japan, Malta, the Cayman Islands, Singapore, and a string of offshore and hybrid setups. ^[7]

Key milestones from that history:

China → Japan (2017–2018): Binance fled mainland China after Beijing’s early crackdown on exchanges, briefly operating via Hong Kong before setting up in Tokyo. By March 2018, Japan’s Financial Services Agency warned Binance for operating without a license, prompting another dispersion of operations. ^[8]
Malta & Cayman Islands (2018–2021): Malta was marketed as a headline “crypto‑friendly” HQ, complete with meetings with the prime minister and local bank accounts. Regulators later clarified that Binance never secured full authorization, and Malta, like the Cayman Islands, ultimately issued warnings that Binance was not licensed to operate from their territories. ^[9]
Singapore, Taiwan, Seychelles and beyond: Binance built out subsidiaries and remote teams in Singapore and Taiwan, then shut its Singapore exchange in late 2021 after landing on the central bank’s investor alert list. Other registrations in Seychelles and elsewhere functioned more as legal shells or partial operational bases than clear, transparent headquarters. ^[10]

During this period, Binance’s public line was that it had no headquarters at all – founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao famously argued that “Bitcoin doesn’t have an office,” implying Binance didn’t need one either. That stance became central to US regulatory concerns and eventually a criminal case. ^[11]

US charges, sentence – and a presidential pardon

US authorities charged Binance and CZ with failing to implement an effective anti‑money‑laundering program, culminating in a $4.3 billion settlement and Zhao’s guilty plea. He resigned as CEO and, in April 2024, was sentenced to four months in prison and a $50 million fine. ^[12]

Zhao served his sentence and was released in 2024 – but the story didn’t end there. On 23 October 2025, President Donald Trump granted a full presidential pardon to CZ, wiping the conviction from the record and sparking intense debate in Washington and across the crypto industry. ^[13]

Members of Congress have since demanded clarity on the ongoing compliance monitors imposed on Binance as part of the 2023 settlement, underscoring that the company remains under heavy US regulatory scrutiny even after the pardon. ^[14]

Yi He, Richard Teng and the new leadership era

Against this backdrop, Binance has restructured its leadership. On 3 December 2025, the exchange named co‑founder Yi He as co‑CEO alongside Richard Teng, a former regulator who took over as CEO after CZ’s plea. Reuters reports that the dual leadership is meant to balance global expansion with a renewed emphasis on compliance and “future‑proof” infrastructure. ^[15]

Teng has said no decision has yet been taken on whether Zhao will formally return to an executive role now that he’s been pardoned, though CZ still owns a substantial stake. ^[16]

ADGM: Binance’s most powerful regulatory foothold yet

The biggest structural change, though, is geographic. Over the past week, Binance has secured a full suite of licenses from Abu Dhabi Global Market’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA), making it the first crypto exchange to be authorized as: ^[17]

Recognized Investment Exchange – via Nest Exchange Services Limited
Recognized Clearing House, with custody and securities depository permissions – via Nest Clearing and Custody Limited
Broker‑Dealer – via Nest Trading Limited, covering OTC and off‑exchange dealing

From 5 January 2026 (subject to final preparations), Binance.com’s regulated activities will effectively run out of ADGM, giving the Emirate’s regulator end‑to‑end oversight of trading, clearing, settlement and brokerage functions. ^[18]

For a company once famed for “dispersed operations,” that’s a radical pivot toward a capital markets‑style model where exchange, clearing and brokerage are separated, regulated and monitored in a framework designed for global institutions. Protos describes this as Binance’s “most comprehensive regulatory foothold yet” in Abu Dhabi, sitting atop an empire of regional subsidiaries stretching from Australia to Brazil, France and the US. ^[19]

Retail Bitcoin Activity: The Quietest It’s Ever Been

0.1 BTC addresses: a broken decade‑long uptrend

For most of Bitcoin’s history, one on‑chain metric has been a reliable sign of grassroots adoption: the number of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC – roughly $9,000 at current prices.

For more than a decade, that cohort grew consistently, even in brutal bear markets, as committed small holders accumulated. That trend has now broken.

Data compiled by Protos and Crypto.news from Glassnode and other providers show that addresses with >0.1 BTC peaked around 4,548,107 on 8 December 2023 and have since slipped to roughly 4,443,541, a drop of about 2.3%. ^[20]
NewsBTC, citing fresh Santiment data on 9 December 2025, notes that the 0.1 BTC cohort has effectively flat‑lined near 4.44 million for roughly a year, despite repeated pushes towards new price highs, ending a multi‑cycle pattern of steady growth. ^[21]

In other words, more people are not joining the “serious retail stacker” club on‑chain, even while Bitcoin has become more visible and more expensive.

CryptoQuant: shrimps barely touch Binance anymore

CryptoQuant’s latest Quicktake — highlighted by CoinNews and XT — paints an even more dramatic picture of retail trading fatigue. Analyst Darkfost tracks deposits to Binance from wallets holding less than 1 BTC (“shrimps”), using a 30‑day simple moving average: ^[22]

In December 2022, at the tail end of the FTX panic, shrimps were sending around 2,675 BTC per day to Binance.
Today, those flows have collapsed to just ~411 BTC per day, one of the lowest readings ever observed.
Since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024, shrimp inflows to Binance have fallen from about 1,056 BTC to 411 BTC, a decline of more than 60%.

At the same time, Santiment data cited in the same analysis show that around 403,000 BTC – more than 2% of total supply – have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges over the past 12 months, a move generally associated with long‑term holding. ^[23]

Darkfost’s conclusion is blunt: “Retail activity hits historic lows.” While we avoid verbatim quotes beyond that short phrase, the core message is that small holders are far less active on trading venues than they were in previous cycles. ^[24]

Where did all the small holders go?

NewsBTC’s 0.1 BTC analysis offers an important nuance: the apparent stall in retail addresses does not mean Bitcoin adoption is shrinking overall. Instead, exposure is increasingly routed through: ^[25]

ETFs and exchange‑traded products: In the US alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs now control almost $120 billion worth of BTC, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading with more than $60 billion in inflows and Fidelity’s FBTC above $12 billion. ^[26]
Centralized custodians and brokers: Assets held by these intermediaries are pooled on‑chain, so thousands of end investors may be represented by a relatively small cluster of addresses.
Security best practices: Sophisticated holders increasingly spread funds across multiple addresses, UTXO management schemes, and wallet structures that minimize oversized balances in any single address. ^[27]

Meanwhile, large cohorts are still quietly accumulating. Santiment data referenced by NewsBTC show addresses with over 100 BTC increasing their balances through 2024 and 2025, even as mid‑sized retail cohorts stagnate. ^[28]

Put simply: Bitcoin is becoming more institutional and more intermediated. The on‑chain map of “who owns what” is less dominated by millions of self‑custodied retail users and more by ETFs, funds, companies and professional custodians.

On‑Chain Signals: Stress Today, Opportunity Tomorrow?

The drying up of retail flows might sound bearish, but other on‑chain metrics suggest the market could be setting up for a new leg higher.

SOPR: profitability reset after a hot cycle

NewsBTC’s 7 December feature highlights how the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) – which compares the price at which coins move to the price at which they were acquired – has dropped to around 1.35, its lowest level since early 2024. ^[29]

A SOPR drifting towards 1 indicates that coins are being spent close to break‑even, rather than at huge profits. Combined with Bitcoin’s slide back below $90,000 from its all‑time high near $126,000, this suggests: ^[30]

The big profit‑taking wave by long‑term holders is fading.
Short‑term speculators who bought late in the rally are already flushed out or neutral.
The market is undergoing a “complete reset” in profitability – historically a good setup for a new accumulation phase.

Hash Ribbons: miner capitulation buy zone

On 9 December, another NewsBTC piece flagged a fresh signal from the Hash Ribbons indicator, which compares the 30‑day and 60‑day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate. When the shorter MA drops below the longer one, it indicates miners are turning off machines en masse – a classic miner capitulation event. ^[31]

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (again cited in the article): ^[32]

The 30‑day hashrate MA has indeed fallen below the 60‑day MA, showing that miners are under stress as price softness and very high network difficulty compress margins.
Historically, these capitulation windows have preceded some of Bitcoin’s most profitable buying opportunities, albeit often after a short‑term period of additional selling as miners liquidate coins to cover costs.

As of publication, Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $92,000 before slipping back to the $90,000 area – right in the zone where previous Hash Ribbon signals have marked medium‑term bottoms. ^[33]

Macro & liquidity: bull run “delayed, not dead”

A separate NewsBTC analysis on 6 December, summarizing research from the “Bull Theory” analysts, argues that the classic four‑year halving cycle is fading, but the broader bull market may actually extend into 2027 instead of ending abruptly. ^[34]

Their thesis:

Global liquidity is turning supportive again, with:
- China injecting credit for months
- Japan rolling out a ~$135 billion stimulus and softening crypto rules
- Canada tilting towards easier policy
- The US Federal Reserve halting quantitative tightening (QT), a move that historically precedes renewed liquidity. ^[35]
The US Treasury’s elevated cash balance (TGA) is likely to be drawn down, pushing tens of billions back into financial markets and indirectly benefitting risk assets like Bitcoin. ^[36]
Politically, the Trump administration is signaling tax reforms and a potential new Fed chair more friendly to liquidity support and crypto markets. ^[37]

If major economies ease simultaneously, the analysts argue, it is hard to imagine Bitcoin moving against that tide for long. Instead of a blow‑off top followed by a deep multi‑year bear, they foresee a longer, rolling uptrend through 2026–2027. ^[38]

Taken together, SOPR, Hash Ribbons and macro liquidity all point to a market that is cooling, not collapsing – which makes the collapse in visible retail participation even more striking.

Why Binance’s ADGM Bet Matters in a Retail‑Lite Market

The shift in Binance’s regulatory posture is not happening in a vacuum. It lines up almost perfectly with Bitcoin’s transition from retail‑driven, high‑friction trading to a more institutional, ETF‑and‑custody‑driven phase.

From surfing regulation to becoming market plumbing

For years, critics accused Binance of playing regulatory musical chairs – moving fast, listing everything, and only later worrying about licenses. The ADGM setup is the opposite:

Exchange (Nest Exchange Services), clearing & custody (Nest Clearing and Custody), and broker‑dealer activity (Nest Trading) are split into separate legal entities, each with its own license and oversight. ^[39]
FSRA now has end‑to‑end visibility over how client assets flow from trading to settlement to off‑exchange services – far closer to a traditional stock exchange or derivatives bourse than a typical offshore crypto platform. ^[40]
Binance itself portrays the move as a bid to become a “trusted and transparent” venue after its multibillion‑dollar US settlement. ^[41]

In a world where small investors increasingly access Bitcoin via IBIT, FBTC and other ETFs, Binance is positioning itself as the institutional trading engine behind the scenes – the place where liquidity providers, market‑makers, hedge funds and cross‑border brokers plug into an ADGM‑supervised infrastructure.

Political economy: Abu Dhabi, Trump and CZ

Protos and other outlets also emphasize the political layer: Abu Dhabi’s ruling elite, via investment vehicles like MGX, has funneled billions into ventures linked to Donald Trump and Binance, intertwining the fates of the world’s largest exchange and the current US administration’s crypto policy. ^[42]

Couple that with Trump’s recent decision to pardon CZ and publicly promote a more crypto‑friendly stance, and Abu Dhabi looks less like a random regulatory win and more like the anchor of a new, politically charged crypto power network spanning the Gulf and Washington. ^[43]

For retail users, that may sound remote. But when you buy a Bitcoin ETF in a retirement account, or when your broker routes a BTC trade through a global liquidity pool, there is a growing chance that Binance‑ADGM sits somewhere in the plumbing.

What This Means for Investors Right Now

None of this is investment advice, but the data and structural shifts suggest a few practical themes for anyone watching Bitcoin and Binance in December 2025.

1. Retail is quieter – but not gone

Fewer new addresses crossing the 0.1 BTC threshold and record‑low shrimp deposits to Binance do not mean retail has disappeared. Many smaller investors simply prefer ETF tickers and familiar brokerage apps to wrestling with seed phrases and exchange KYC. ^[44]
Historically, some of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies began when retail was skeptical or absent, only piling in later as prices broke to new highs.

If history rhymes, today’s low on‑chain retail presence could be the “smart boredom” phase – but it also means less distributed ownership if institutions keep outpacing individuals.

2. On‑chain metrics argue for patience, not panic

SOPR near its lowest level since early 2024, combined with miner capitulation, usually marks late stages of a corrective phase rather than its beginning. ^[45]
That does not guarantee a quick reversal; miners under stress may dump more coins first, and macro conditions can always deteriorate. But the probability that this is a mid‑cycle reset rather than a fresh secular top is rising in many analysts’ models. ^[46]

For long‑term investors, this environment often favours systematic, diversified accumulation strategies over short‑term leverage or chasing momentum.

3. Binance’s ADGM era increases the importance of jurisdictional risk

If you use Binance – directly or indirectly via institutional products – the ADGM move changes the risk map:

Pros: more formal oversight, clearer segregation of exchange/clearing/broker functions, and a regulator motivated to prove it can supervise a global crypto hub. ^[47]
Cons: growing geopolitical entanglements, lingering US scrutiny from DOJ and Treasury monitorships, and future uncertainty around how ADGM‑based operations will interoperate with other major jurisdictions. ^[48]

Investors should pay close attention to where their chosen products custody coins, which regulator actually oversees those entities, and what recourse they have if something goes wrong.

4. Diversification of access is now part of basic risk management

Given the clear shift toward institutional rails and away from pure self‑custody growth, many market participants are adopting blended approaches, for example:

Holding some Bitcoin via regulated ETFs or ETPs for ease of use and integration with retirement accounts. ^[49]
Keeping a portion in self‑custodied wallets for sovereignty, provided they can manage the operational risk.
Using multiple venues and jurisdictions rather than concentrating all trading and custody with a single exchange.

Again, each option comes with trade‑offs in terms of fees, security, regulatory recourse and convenience. Independent research and, ideally, professional financial advice remain essential.

The Bottom Line

On 9 December 2025, the story of Bitcoin and Binance is no longer only about price or hype cycles. It’s about who owns Bitcoin, where it’s being held, and which legal systems control the core infrastructure.

Retail on‑chain participation is at its weakest in years.
Institutional and ETF exposure is surging.
Binance has transformed from a roaming, regulation‑dodging giant into the anchor tenant of Abu Dhabi’s ADGM – just as its founder receives a controversial US presidential pardon.

Whether this new configuration ultimately strengthens or undermines Bitcoin’s original ethos of broad, decentralized ownership will depend on what happens next:

Do retail investors re‑engage if prices and liquidity expand into 2026–2027?
Do ADGM and other regulators prove they can manage systemic risks without choking innovation?
Does Binance’s new structure reduce or exacerbate concentration in the market’s core plumbing?

For now, the data is clear: Bitcoin is growing up – and growing away from the crowd that built it.