RH Stock News & Forecast (NYSE:RH) on Dec. 14, 2025: Q3 FY2025 Earnings, Guidance Reset, and New Analyst Price Targets

Published: Sunday, December 14, 2025 (U.S. markets last closed Friday, Dec. 12)

RH (NYSE:RH)—the luxury home furnishings and lifestyle retailer—heads into the new week with investors digesting a busy stretch of catalysts: a fresh quarterly report, updated full‑year outlook, and a wave of analyst target changes that reshaped the near‑term narrative around tariffs, margin pressure, and a still‑sluggish housing backdrop. ^[1]

On Friday, RH shares closed at $162.01, up roughly 5.7% on the day after the company’s results and outlook reset hit the tape late Thursday. ^[2]

RH stock today: what changed heading into Dec. 14, 2025?

The immediate catalyst is RH’s third‑quarter fiscal 2025 report (quarter ended Nov. 1, 2025), released after the market close on Dec. 11. ^[3]

The headline reaction has been nuanced:

Revenue topped expectations and the company emphasized market share gains, helping support the stock. ^[4]
Profitability and margin were pressured by tariffs and international expansion costs, prompting several firms to cut price targets (and in one case, downgrade the stock). ^[5]
Wall Street’s consensus stance remains broadly neutral: multiple tracking services list RH at “Hold” on average, with widely scattered price targets—an important signal that conviction is split even after the post‑earnings bounce. ^[6]

Q3 FY2025 earnings recap: RH’s key numbers investors are trading on

From the company’s shareholder letter and filing materials, RH reported the following third‑quarter fiscal 2025 highlights:

Net revenues:$884 million, up 9% year over year ^[7]
GAAP net income:$36 million, up 9% ^[8]
Operating margin:12.0% GAAP; 11.6% adjusted ^[9]
Adjusted EBITDA margin:17.6% ^[10]
Free cash flow:$83 million in the quarter; $198 million year‑to‑date ^[11]
Net debt:$2.427 billion, down $85 million from Q2 ^[12]
Inventory: down 11% vs. last year, and down $82 million vs. Q2 (as the company works through what it previously called excess inventory). ^[13]

A key detail for investors: RH said the adjusted operating margin came in below the midpoint of its guidance due to higher‑than‑forecast tariff expense on prior orders delivered in the quarter and higher‑than‑expected Paris opening expenses. ^[14]

Updated guidance: RH’s outlook for Q4 FY2025 and the full fiscal year

RH used the earnings release to update its outlook—one of the most market‑moving items for consumer discretionary names right now, given uncertainty around demand and pricing.

Fourth quarter 2025 (RH guidance)

Revenue growth:7% to 8% ^[15]
Adjusted operating margin:12.5% to 13.5% ^[16]
Adjusted EBITDA margin:18.7% to 19.6% ^[17]

RH also quantified headwinds embedded in that Q4 guide, including an approximate 200 bps operating‑margin impact from international expansion/startup costs, plus about 170 bps from tariffs (net of mitigations). ^[18]

Fiscal year 2025 (RH guidance)

Revenue growth:9.0% to 9.2% ^[19]
Adjusted operating margin:11.6% to 11.9% ^[20]
Adjusted EBITDA margin:17.6% to 18.0% ^[21]
Free cash flow:$250 million to $300 million ^[22]

For the full year, RH again flagged meaningful pressure in the outlook: an approximate 210 bps operating‑margin impact from international investments/startup costs, and about 90 bps from tariffs, net of mitigations. ^[23]

The two macro headwinds RH keeps emphasizing: housing and tariffs

RH’s CEO framed the environment bluntly, repeatedly characterizing it as one of the toughest backdrops the category has seen in decades. ^[24]

Housing: “worst… in almost 50 years”

In the shareholder letter, management compared existing home sales in 1978 versus expected averages from 2023–2025, arguing that transaction volume relative to population is historically depressed—an important datapoint because higher‑ticket home furnishings demand often correlates with housing turnover. ^[25]

Tariffs: supply chain disruption and higher costs

RH also noted a rapid cadence of tariff actions, saying there were 16 tariff announcements over the past 10 months, creating re‑sourcing needs, delays, and multiple rounds of pricing negotiations and increases. ^[26]

For investors, this matters because tariffs are showing up in two places at once:

Near‑term margins (tariff expense on backlog/special orders delivered now), and
Operational complexity (availability, lead times, and price resets) that can affect demand conversion.

Why RH stock jumped anyway: the market’s “cash flow and share gains” read

Despite the EPS miss highlighted by several market recap pieces, RH stock rose sharply into Friday’s close—an outcome commonly seen when investors decide the longer‑term setup (or the balance sheet trajectory) is improving faster than the income statement suggests.

Commentary around the move focused on:

A slight revenue beat,
Free cash flow generation, and
RH’s claim that it is gaining share versus other home‑furnishings players, even in a weak housing market. ^[27]

RH also pointed to balance sheet and asset levers: beyond the quarter’s net‑debt reduction, the company said it ended Q3 with real estate assets it believes have an estimated equity value of roughly $500 million, which it plans to monetize opportunistically as market conditions allow. ^[28]

Analyst moves and price targets: Wall Street recalibrates after earnings

The post‑earnings window (Dec. 12 in particular) brought a cluster of target changes and at least one notable downgrade—exactly the kind of headline flow Google Discover audiences tend to search for around volatile, high‑beta retail names.

Here are several of the most‑cited calls and changes:

Stifel: downgraded Buy → Hold, price target $320 → $165, citing demand concerns and reduced confidence in near‑term estimates. ^[29]
BofA Securities: maintained Underperform/Sell‑equivalent, price target cut $200 → $170. ^[30]
TD Cowen: maintained Buy, price target cut $265 → $200, pointing to reset expectations and potential medium‑term catalysts. ^[31]
Telsey Advisory Group: maintained Hold/Market Perform, price target cut $220 → $185 (citing tariff pressures and costs tied to the Paris opening in at least one market recap). ^[32]
Baird: maintained Hold, price target cut $235 → $180. ^[33]

Taken together, the message is consistent: analysts are not dismissing RH’s brand strength and long‑term ambitions, but they are demanding clearer evidence of margin recovery and durable demand in a housing‑constrained, tariff‑disrupted environment. ^[34]

RH stock forecast: where consensus sits on Dec. 14, 2025

Even with the round of target cuts, consensus still implies meaningful upside from Friday’s close—though the dispersion is wide.

Consensus rating and targets (two widely followed snapshots)

StockAnalysis (15 analysts): consensus “Hold”, average target about $239.8, with a low of $165 and high of $385—roughly 48% upside from around $162. ^[35]
MarketBeat (21 analysts): consensus “Hold” (3 sell / 9 hold / 9 buy), average 12‑month target about $238.81, and it noted RH trading around $161.94 with a market cap near $3.04B and a 12‑month range of $123.03–$457.26. ^[36]

Revenue and EPS forecasts (Street models)

StockAnalysis also shows consensus financial forecasts pointing to rising revenue and sharply higher earnings power across the next fiscal periods (noting that forecasted EPS may be non‑GAAP): revenue estimates around $3.60B for the “this year” view and $3.96B for “next year,” with EPS estimates rising from roughly $9.29 to $13.29. ^[37]

The key takeaway for readers: RH’s average target may look optimistic, but the target range is extremely wide, reflecting both the stock’s volatility and the market’s uncertainty about when housing and tariffs stop being dominant constraints.

What investors should watch next: the “make‑or‑break” checklist for RH stock

With earnings now out, RH stock’s next leg is likely to be driven by whether the company can execute on guidance while proving that the cost pressures are temporary rather than structural.

Here are the major swing factors to track into year‑end and early 2026:

Holiday‑quarter demand vs. RH’s Q4 guide (7%–8% revenue growth). If demand is softer than implied, the market may re‑price the “share gain” narrative quickly. ^[38]
Margin trajectory and tariff mitigation. RH explicitly quantified tariff impacts in its outlook; investors will be looking for evidence that mitigations are taking hold and that price actions are sticking. ^[39]
International expansion costs. RH continues to embed large basis‑point impacts from expansion/startup costs into its operating‑margin outlook—investors will want clarity on when those costs peak and when payback begins. ^[40]
Inventory normalization and cash flow. RH highlighted inventory reductions and reaffirmed free‑cash‑flow guidance; sustaining that cash generation is central to the bull case given leverage levels. ^[41]
Balance sheet actions (debt reduction and potential real estate monetization). The company’s mention of ~$500M of estimated real estate equity value is notable—any monetization could change the debt and interest‑expense conversation. ^[42]
New galleries and brand ecosystem cadence. RH recently opened a new Detroit‑area gallery concept (Dec. 3), and analysts continue to cite upcoming galleries and product expansions as part of the longer‑term story—though the market is clearly discounting near‑term uncertainty. ^[43]

Bottom line for Dec. 14, 2025

RH stock enters the week with renewed attention after a strong Friday close—but the story remains a tug‑of‑war between (a) management’s claims of share gains and cash flow strength and (b) real, quantified headwinds from tariffs, housing turnover, and expansion costs that are squeezing margins and driving target cuts. ^[44]

For Google News and Discover readers, the practical takeaway is simple: RH is back in motion, but the market is still asking for proof that the company can translate revenue growth into cleaner, more durable profitability once the tariff and investment cycle crests.