German defence group Rheinmetall AG (RHM.DE) delivered a full news cycle today: a fresh Bundeswehr contract, ambitious 2030 growth targets, multiple analyst upgrades – and yet a clearly weaker share price by late afternoon.
Below is a structured roundup of everything that moved the Rheinmetall share on 19 November 2025, from contracts and strategy to analyst views and ownership changes.
Key facts on Rheinmetall today (19.11.2025)
- Share price: Around €1,64 on Tradegate, down about 5% intraday; day’s range roughly €1,59–€1,75, with heavy turnover and a brief dip close to the 200‑day moving average. [1]
- New contract:~€61 m order from the Bundeswehr to modernise the Army Combat Training Centre (GÜZ Heer) in Saxony‑Anhalt, tied to the major D‑LBO digitalisation programme. [2]
- 2030 targets: Management is aiming for around €50 bn in annual sales by 2030, more than a five‑fold increase versus 2024, with operating margins above 20% and cash conversion above 50%. [3]
- Analyst reaction:
- Berenberg: Target €2,340, rating “Buy” (up from €2,300). [4]
- DZ Bank: Fair value €2,385, rating “Kaufen/Buy” (up from €2,240). [5]
- Jefferies: Target €2,250, Buy confirmed. [6]
- UBS: Target €2,500, Buy confirmed. [7]
- Bernstein: Target €1,980, Market Perform maintained. [8]
- Warburg Research: Target €1,770, Hold maintained (up from €1,740). [9]
- Ownership:Goldman Sachs Group has cut its combined share and derivatives position in Rheinmetall to 4.06%, dropping below the key 5% threshold. [10]
- Operations: All four Skynex air‑defence systems pledged by Germany have now been delivered to Ukraine and are protecting energy infrastructure in the west of the country. [11]
Rheinmetall share price today: from quiet open to sharp intraday loss
The trading day started calmly. According to German financial press, Rheinmetall opened on Xetra at around €1,713, only slightly below Tuesday’s close of €1,716 – a marginal move of about ‑0.2%. [12]
As the session progressed, sentiment in European defence stocks deteriorated. A dpa‑AFX report highlighted that Rheinmetall at one point slid nearly 8% to roughly €1,581, touching its lowest level since late August before stabilising around the 200‑day moving average. [13]
On Tradegate, one of the busiest German retail venues, late‑afternoon data showed: [14]
- Last price: ~€1,642.50
- Change: about ‑5.1% on the day
- Intraday high/low:€1,749.50 / €1,587.00
- Turnover: roughly €159 m and nearly 96,000 shares traded
Other platforms such as Xetra and regional exchanges reported similar declines, with mid‑afternoon prices often quoted between €1,615 and €1,630, implying losses of roughly 5–7% versus the previous day’s close. [15]
In short: the stock fell noticeably, even as the company announced a fresh Bundeswehr order and received a wave of positive analyst commentary.
New €61 m Bundeswehr contract: modernising the Army Combat Training Centre
The concrete corporate news of the day is a new order from the Bundeswehr. Rheinmetall confirmed that it has been commissioned to modernise the Army Combat Training Centre (Gefechtsübungszentrum Heer, GÜZ) in Saxony‑Anhalt, the German Army’s key facility for large‑scale field exercises. [16]
Scope and value of the contract
- Contract value: just under €61 m (gross)
- Booking: recorded in October 2025
- Timeline:
- First services to be delivered already in 2025
- Full integration targeted by early 2028
The core objective is to integrate the Bundeswehr’s ambitious “Digitalisierung landbasierter Operationen” (D‑LBO) programme into the training centre. That means the facility is being upgraded so that it can mirror the fully digital command‑and‑control, networking and communications environment that German ground forces are expected to use in the field. [17]
Technical upgrades
According to the company and specialist defence media, the project includes several key elements: [18]
- A new broadband radio infrastructure based on 5G technology
- Integration of the new digital radio system into the GÜZ
- Extensive upgrade and expansion of the existing radio network
- Integration of “Tactical Core” software from Rheinmetall subsidiary Blackned into the communications backbone
- Display of battle management system data in the training centre’s command post, including digital command processes from “Sitaware Frontline” and “Sitaware HQ”
Rheinmetall argues that, once the work is complete, the GÜZ will offer significantly enhanced training quality and multinational interoperability for the Bundeswehr and NATO partners. It also describes the project as another important step in making the German army’s unique training facility fully “D‑LBO‑ready”. [19]
Vision 2030: Rheinmetall aims for €50 bn in sales and >20% margins
Today’s contract sits against a much bigger strategic backdrop. At its Capital Markets Day on 18 November 2025, Rheinmetall’s management laid out a “Vision 2030” that dominated today’s analyst research.
Five‑fold sales growth and profitability targets
Based on multiple reports citing management statements, the company plans to: [20]
- Increase annual sales to around €50 bn by 2030 (vs. roughly €9.8 bn in 2024)
- Lift the operating margin to above 20% by the end of the decade
- Achieve a cash conversion rate of more than 50%
Analysts and financial media describe this as a genuine scale‑up scenario driven by:
- High demand for weapons, ammunition and vehicle systems as NATO countries refill inventories
- A structural increase in European defence spending after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- New threats from drones and long‑range missiles, which drive demand for air‑defence solutions such as Skynex. [21]
Portfolio reshaping and new segments
To support this growth, Rheinmetall plans a significant portfolio reshuffle: [22]
- Divestiture of civilian businesses: The group intends to sell or spin off its remaining civilian power/automotive activities by the first half of 2026, sharpening its focus on defence.
- New reporting structure from 2026: Management sees future core segments in areas such as Naval, Air Defence and Digital, reflecting recent acquisitions and the growing weight of software, networking and electronics.
- Capacity expansion: Rheinmetall recently inaugurated what it describes as Europe’s largest ammunition plant in Germany, with rocket‑motor production expected to start there in the third quarter of next year.
CEO Armin Papperger also signalled a regional shift in procurement, telling Reuters that Rheinmetall plans to source most of its steel from Germany and Europe in future, rather than from India or China. The rationale is to reduce supply‑chain risk and support European industry – “bring it back to Europe”, as he put it. [23]
Expected product and regional drivers
Rheinmetall and specialist media highlight several anticipated sales drivers: [24]
- Vehicle Systems:
- Significant Boxer armoured vehicle orders from Germany are expected from 2026, with a planned ramp‑up towards around 1,000 Boxers per year.
- Further orders for Lynx infantry fighting vehicles, including a recent contract with Romania for 298 Lynx and expected deals with Italy and Ukraine.
- Naval segment:
- The integration of Naval Vessels Lürssen (NVL) underpins a projected €5 bn sales contribution in 2030 from warship activities, according to investor commentary.
- Air Defence & Ammunition:
- Management sees air‑defence market potential in the low single‑digit billions per year, while long‑term ammunition requirements remain elevated.
Papperger also referenced the EU’s SAFE defence procurement programme, noting that cross‑border projects would hardly be feasible “without the SAFE money”. [25]
Analysts split between “buy the story” and “valuation is rich”
Today’s newsflow was dominated by fresh research notes reacting to the Capital Markets Day. While almost all houses acknowledge a powerful growth story, views diverge on how much upside remains in the share price.
Bullish camp: Berenberg, DZ Bank, Jefferies, UBS
Berenberg raised its target price from €2,300 to €2,340 and reaffirmed a “Buy” rating. Analyst George McWhirter praised the new medium‑term targets and now assumes around 30% revenue growth through 2030, raising his 2030 EBIT estimate by 23% and his earnings‑per‑share forecast by 7%. He describes Rheinmetall as one of the best‑positioned European defence names. [26]
DZ Bank increased its fair value estimate from €2,240 to €2,385, also with a Buy (“Kaufen”) recommendation. Analyst Holger Schmidt argues that the updated 2030 targets imply convincing growth in revenues, adjusted EBIT and cash flow, and that the current valuation therefore appears “more than justified”. [27]
In a broader analyst roundup, Jefferies confirmed a €2,250 target and Buy, calling Rheinmetall its top pick in the sector. The bank calculates that the €50 bn sales target is backed by about €44 bn of organic growth, with the remainder from acquisitions, and sees group margins gradually rising towards 21–23% thanks to vertical integration and automation. [28]
UBS went even further, retaining its Buy recommendation and raising the target price to €2,500. The Swiss bank emphasises that the key is not only meeting the 2030 goals but also sustaining growth well into the late 2030s, with several indicators suggesting that elevated margins can be defended over the long term. [29]
More cautious voices: Bernstein and Warburg Research
On the other side of the spectrum, Bernstein reiterated a “Market Perform” rating and kept its target at €1,980. Analyst Adrien Rabier argues that the new objectives were largely already expected, and that after the share’s powerful multi‑year run, a lot of optimism is already priced in. [30]
Warburg Research lifted its target only slightly from €1,740 to €1,770, maintaining “Hold”. Analyst Christian Cohrs comments that the medium‑term targets support a phase of strong growth, but he also notes that they already factor in the NVL acquisition and smaller deals, leaving limited “air” above current levels when compared with his valuation model. [31]
Several German portals summarised the situation today as a tug‑of‑war between impressive growth prospects and an already demanding valuation, particularly after the stock’s large gains in recent years. [32]
Skynex systems arrive in Ukraine and drone strategy advances
Beyond financial targets, the operational dimension of Rheinmetall’s growth story also made headlines.
Ukrainian and international media reported that all four Skynex air‑defence systems promised by Germany have now been delivered. According to statements attributed to CEO Armin Papperger, the systems are already in service in western Ukraine, where they are used to protect power plants and other critical infrastructure from loitering munitions and cruise missiles. [33]
Separately, an article on wallstreet‑online highlighted Rheinmetall’s strategic partnership with U.S. drone software specialist Auterion. Papperger confirmed that the group has taken an equity stake in Auterion and is working together on a drone operating system intended for use by both the Bundeswehr and Ukrainian forces. This feeds into the company’s broader ambition to be a technology leader in unmanned systems and digital command‑and‑control. [34]
Together with the Skynex deployments, these moves underline how ongoing conflicts and shifting military technology are directly shaping Rheinmetall’s pipeline.
Goldman Sachs trims its position below 5%: voting‑rights update
This morning, a regulatory filing shed light on changes in institutional ownership. In an EQS voting‑rights announcement, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. notified Rheinmetall that its overall stake (shares plus derivatives) has fallen from 5.39% to 4.06%, crossing below the 5% disclosure threshold under German securities law. [35]
Key data from the notification: [36]
- Effective date of threshold crossing: 11 November 2025
- Direct/indirect shareholding:0.35% of voting rights
- Instruments (options, swaps, futures, etc.):3.71%
- Total voting rights (shares + instruments):4.06%
The breakdown shows a mix of call options, warrants, swaps and futures with maturities stretching into the 2030s. While Goldman remains a notable holder, it has clearly scaled back its synthetic exposure, a move that can influence liquidity and sentiment in a stock with relatively high derivatives activity.
Fundamentals still strong: record 9‑month figures and massive backlog
Behind today’s volatility, Rheinmetall’s underlying operating performance remains robust.
In its Q3 2025 quarterly statement, the company reported for the first nine months of 2025: [37]
- Sales:€7.52 bn, up about 20% from €6.27 bn a year earlier
- Operating result (EBIT): roughly €724 m, compared with €613 m in the prior‑year period
- Order backlog:€63.8 bn, an increase of nearly 23% versus the previous year
- Order intake (“nominations”): around €17.6 bn, somewhat lower than the prior year due mainly to delays related to the German federal budget
The German market’s share of total sales rose to about 34%, with 66% generated abroad, underlining the group’s dual role as a key national supplier and export‑oriented defence player. [38]
These numbers align with the narrative many analysts describe: short‑term order timing may be volatile, but the long‑term demand environment – driven by rearmament, NATO commitments and new technology needs – remains highly supportive for Rheinmetall.
Why the share fell anyway – and what to watch next
Given the backdrop of:
- A new Bundeswehr contract
- An extremely ambitious 2030 growth plan
- Multiple target price upgrades and Buy ratings
…it might seem counter‑intuitive that Rheinmetall’s share price dropped by around 5–7% today.
Market commentary offers several explanations: [39]
- “Buy the rumour, sell the fact”:
- The stock rallied ahead of the Capital Markets Day, so even impressive targets can trigger profit‑taking once they are officially confirmed.
- Valuation concerns:
- Houses like Bernstein and Warburg argue that a lot of growth is already priced in, making some investors nervous about downside if political or budget assumptions change.
- Sector‑wide pressure:
- dpa‑AFX reports note that defence stocks broadly weakened today, partly in response to discussion of possible new diplomatic initiatives on Ukraine, which can sometimes weigh on arms makers across the board. [40]
- Technical factors:
- The share had been trading in a range roughly between €1,650 and €1,800 for weeks; today’s move saw the price test the lower end and briefly dive below, triggering stops and short‑term technical selling, according to chart‑focused commentary. [41]
Takeaway for investors
From a news standpoint, 19 November 2025 was dense for Rheinmetall:
- Operationally, the group strengthened its role as a core digitalisation partner for the Bundeswehr (GÜZ contract) and continued to show real‑world impact in Ukraine (Skynex). [42]
- Strategically, management is steering the company towards being a pure‑play defence powerhouse targeting €50 bn in annual sales, with a sharpened focus on naval, air‑defence and digital capabilities. [43]
- On the capital‑market side, most major analysts raised price targets and several reaffirmed Buy ratings, even as others warned about valuation risks. [44]
- Ownership disclosures show Goldman Sachs trimming its exposure but still holding a meaningful stake via shares and derivatives. [45]
The market’s verdict today was negative in price terms but not in fundamentals. For observers and investors, the crucial questions over the coming months will be:
- Can Rheinmetall convert its record backlog into cash quickly enough to underpin the targeted cash‑conversion ratio?
- Will European governments stick to their defence‑spending plans, especially if geopolitical tensions ease?
- And can the company execute its capacity expansions and digital projects on time, including the GÜZ modernisation and its new ammunition plants?
As always, this article is informational and not investment advice. Anyone considering trading or investing in Rheinmetall AG (RHM.DE) should carefully assess their own risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
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