Frankfurt, Feb 5, 2026, 11:20 CET — Regular session
- Rheinmetall shares dropped nearly 8% to 1,546 euros following a pre-close briefing outlining its 2025 targets and 2026 outlook
- Company holds firm on 2025 growth and margin goals; projects 2026 revenue between 15 and 16 billion euros
- Analysts note guidance falls short of some market forecasts; attention now turns to the annual report on March 11
Shares of Rheinmetall AG (RHMG.DE) dropped almost 8% on Thursday following the German defence firm’s reaffirmation of its 2025 targets and a 2026 outlook that some analysts described as cautious after the stock’s recent rally.
The stock fell 7.9% to 1,546 euros on Xetra, moving in a range from 1,520.5 to 1,618.5 euros. It’s still roughly 106% higher than it was a year ago. 1
This shift is significant since Rheinmetall now acts as a stand-in for Europe’s defence spending trends. Investors want to figure out the pace at which fresh contracts translate into actual deliveries, profits, and cash flow—not just the usual budget announcements.
The sell-off unfolded as wider European stocks held steady ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy announcement later Thursday, with traders weighing earnings reports against interest rate expectations. 2
During the pre-close call ahead of full-year results, Rheinmetall confirmed its 2025 sales-growth target of 30%-35% under the new consolidation scope and an operating margin aimed at 18.5%-19%. The company also said cash conversion would be “significantly above 40%.” Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Michael Raab described the update as “no major news for 2025,” but noted it provided “some more granularity” on the outlook for 2026. 3
Jefferies cut its price target for Rheinmetall to 2,060 euros from 2,170 but maintained a “Buy” rating. Analyst Chloe Lemarie highlighted that the 2026 sales forecast and margin guidance fall short of consensus estimates, according to a note cited by dpa-AFX. 4
A summary of the transcript from Quartr revealed management anticipates major German defence contracts worth roughly 67 billion euros over the next year. It also outlined a tentative 2026 segment outlook, projecting about 5 billion euros from ammunition and up to 6 billion euros from vehicle systems. The summary noted that automotive activities will be classified as discontinued, with NVL slated to close in Q1 2026. 5
In a separate filing on voting rights, FMR LLC upped its stake in Rheinmetall to 3.09% from 2.91%, having crossed the reporting threshold on Jan. 29. 6
Timing poses a key risk for bulls. When large contract awards or prepayments shift, revenue and cash flow might cluster, making quarterly results volatile despite steady long-term demand. On top of that, integration impacts and changes in reporting can complicate comparisons.
Traders are now eyeing Thursday’s ECB statement, followed by Rheinmetall’s 2025 annual report and analyst conference on March 11. Investors will be keen for clearer signals on orders, margins, and cash flow. 7
