Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock: December 8, 2025 News, Analyst Forecasts and Quantum Computing Outlook

As of market close on December 8, 2025, Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) trades around $27.84 per share, down roughly 1% on the day, for a market capitalization of about $9.3 billion. The stock has swung between $3.31 and $58.15 over the past year and remains up several hundred percent year‑on‑year despite a violent November correction. ^[1]

This article rounds up the latest news, forecasts and analysis available as of December 8, 2025, to help investors understand what’s really driving Rigetti’s hyper‑volatile quantum computing stock.

1. Rigetti Stock Today: Price, Volatility and Context

Latest price: $27.84 (December 8, 2025 close).
Intraday range: $27.03 – $29.43.
52‑week range: approximately $3.31 – $58.15. ^[2]
Market cap: about $9.28 billion, with a negative P/E ratio (~‑21.6) and beta near 1.7, underscoring both lack of profits and high volatility. ^[3]

A Nasdaq‑syndicated analysis notes that Rigetti is still up roughly 730% over the last 12 months, even after a 42% plunge in November 2025 following earnings. ^[4] Another recent piece highlights that, at one point this year, the stock had gained as much as 1,770% in 12 months, placing it among the most explosive quantum computing names. ^[5]

In short: RGTI is a high‑beta, momentum‑driven small cap where sentiment can flip extremely quickly.

2. Fresh December 8 Headline: JPMorgan and Other Institutions Increase Stakes

One of the most notable December 8, 2025 stories comes from MarketBeat, which reports that JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted its Rigetti stake by 142.5% in Q2, to just over 1.0 million shares, valued at roughly $11.9 million and representing about 0.35% of the company. ^[6]

The same filing roundup shows:

Vanguard increased its position by about 20.7% to more than 14.1 million shares.
Geode Capital, Charles Schwab, Northern Trust and BNY Mellon also added shares.
Overall, institutional investors now own around 35% of RGTI’s float. ^[7]

The MarketBeat piece also reiterates key valuation metrics:

Price near $28 at the time of writing,
Market cap about $9.28 billion,
52‑week range of $3.31–$58.15,
Negative P/E around ‑21.6. ^[8]

For traders, this combination—rising institutional ownership plus extreme volatility—is central to the current narrative around Rigetti.

3. November Crash, CEO Share Sale and Sentiment Shock

The other major storyline hanging over Rigetti as of December 8 is the sharp pullback after Q3 earnings.

3.1 42% November slide

A Motley Fool article syndicated by Nasdaq explains that Rigetti shares fell about 42% in November 2025, erasing a big chunk of earlier gains. The piece cites: ^[9]

Revenue down ~18% year‑over‑year in Q3 to about $1.95 million.
Net loss swelling to roughly $201 million, largely due to a big non‑cash warrant‑related charge.
About $19.7 million of cash burned during the quarter.

Despite the drop, that same article notes the stock was still up around 729% over the prior 12 months, underscoring how speculative the move has been. ^[10]

The author compares today’s quantum‑computing euphoria to past bubbles in cannabis and crypto, warning that it’s very hard to separate future winners from future wipeouts this early in the technology cycle. ^[11]

3.2 “CEO holds zero shares” headline

Separate coverage from 24/7 Wall St, echoed on several data platforms, highlights that Rigetti’s share price collapsed roughly 40% over the past month, sliding from about $39 in early November to $23.45 on December 1. ^[12]

That article also points to a key optics problem: filings show that CEO Subodh Kulkarni no longer directly owns Rigetti common shares, a fact summarized in multiple feeds as “CEO holds zero shares.” ^[13]

Whether or not there are valid reasons (e.g., previous grants, indirect holdings, options), the perception of a high‑growth CEO with no direct equity stake has clearly rattled some investors and amplified the post‑earnings sell‑off.

4. Q3 2025 Earnings: Deep GAAP Loss, But Nearly $600 Million in Cash

Rigetti’s third‑quarter 2025 results, released on November 10, sit at the center of the recent volatility.

4.1 Headline numbers

According to the company’s disclosures and detailed coverage from The Quantum Insider and Investing.com: ^[14]

Revenue: about $1.9 million in Q3 2025, down roughly 18% year‑over‑year and below analyst expectations near $2.2 million.
Operating loss: approximately $20.5 million.
GAAP net loss: about $201 million, or −$0.62 per share, driven largely by a non‑cash derivative warrant revaluation (roughly $149 million).
Non‑GAAP net loss: about $10.7 million, or −$0.03 per share, which actually beat the Street’s −$0.05 EPS forecast.

Several commentators (including a Finviz/Motley Fool piece) stress that while the headline GAAP loss was enormous, much of it was accounting‑driven rather than purely operational. ^[15]

4.2 The cash pile: around $600 million

The same sources highlight Rigetti’s unusually large cash position for a pre‑revenue deep‑tech company: ^[16]

About $558.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at quarter‑end.
An additional $46.5 million raised via warrant exercises after Q3, bringing total cash to roughly $600 million by early November 2025.

At the Q3 cash burn rate of roughly $19.7 million per quarter, commentators estimate that this war chest could fund operations for several years, though that runway will shrink if spending accelerates. ^[17]

A widely shared takeaway from the Finviz‑syndicated analysis: short‑term revenue misses matter less right now than Rigetti’s ability to finance its quantum roadmap from this $600 million cash cushion, without endless dilutive stock offerings. ^[18]

5. Commercial Traction: Novera System Sales and Government Contracts

Beyond the financials, recent quarters brought several proof‑of‑demand signals:

Two Novera quantum systems sold:
Rigetti has purchase orders totaling about $5.7 million for two 9‑qubit Novera™ systems, both upgradeable to higher qubit counts. One is headed to an Asian technology manufacturer and the other to a California AI and quantum‑hardware start‑up, with deliveries expected in the first half of 2026. ^[19]
$5.8 million AFRL contract:
The company won a three‑year, $5.8 million contract with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), in collaboration with Dutch start‑up QphoX, to develop superconducting quantum networking and microwave‑to‑optical transduction—key steps toward linking quantum computers over fiber networks. ^[20]
Expansion into Europe and academia:
Rigetti plans to establish a subsidiary in Italy to tap into growing European quantum funding and talent. ^[21]
It has also signed memoranda of understanding with India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C‑DAC) and Montana State University’s QCORE lab, which now hosts its own on‑premises Novera processor. ^[22]
NVIDIA partnership:
Rigetti is supporting NVIDIA’s NVQLink platform, which aims to tightly couple AI supercomputers with quantum processors for hybrid workloads. ^[23]

These deals are small in dollar terms compared with the company’s market cap, but they demonstrate that Rigetti’s hardware is moving out of the lab and into paid deployments, something investors in quantum names watch closely.

6. Technology Roadmap: Sprinting Toward 1,000+ Qubits

Rigetti has laid out an aggressive multi‑year roadmap for its superconducting‑qubit systems: ^[24]

Target 100+ qubit system by the end of 2025, with ~99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity.
Aim for 150+ qubits by late 2026, at around 99.7% fidelity.
Work toward a 1,000+ qubit system by late 2027, aspiring to ~99.8% fidelity.

The company emphasizes a modular, “chiplet” architecture meant to facilitate scaling and integration with third‑party technologies, including classical AI accelerators via NVIDIA’s NVQLink platform. ^[25]

However, AInvest and other commentators caution that Rigetti isn’t racing alone: Alphabet’s “Willow” processor recently demonstrated a reported 13,000x speed‑up versus leading classical supercomputers, while IBM, Microsoft, Amazon and others are pouring billions into their own quantum and quantum‑adjacent platforms. ^[26]

The implication: even if Rigetti hits its technical milestones, it must still carve out a durable niche against well‑funded tech giants.

7. Analyst Ratings and Rigetti Stock Forecasts

Analyst coverage of RGTI has expanded rapidly alongside the share price spike, and the forecasts are all over the map.

7.1 12‑month price targets

Different platforms report slightly different aggregates, but together they paint a picture of wide disagreement:

MarketBeat:
- 7 analysts, average 12‑month target: $25.43.
- Target range: $12 – $40.
- At a reference price of about $27.89, that average implies ~9% downside. ^[27]
TipRanks:
- 7 Wall Street analysts, average target $40.60.
- Range: $35 – $51.
- Based on a recent price of around $30.06, that implies roughly 35% upside.
- Overall consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (5 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell). ^[28]
TradingView consensus:
- Analyst target around $40.50, with a $35 – $51 range, broadly in line with TipRanks. ^[29]
StockAnalysis.com:
- 5 analysts covering RGTI.
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”.
- Average price target $24, with a $12 – $40 range, implying low‑double‑digit downside from current levels. ^[30]
Benzinga price‑prediction article (October 2025):
- Projects RGTI maintaining a price “around $32” through 2025, but stresses that the stock remains highly speculative and driven more by future potential than current profits. ^[31]
WallStreetZen:
- Notes that four analysts following Rigetti rate it a “Buy”, with the stock quoted near $28.11 on December 5, 2025. ^[32]

Taken together, these forecasts suggest that professionals broadly view Rigetti as a high‑risk growth name, but disagree sharply on near‑term valuation, with some seeing meaningful upside and others expecting a pullback from current levels.

7.2 Earnings expectations

Nasdaq’s earnings overview shows that:

For the fiscal year ending December 2025, the consensus EPS forecast is −$0.18,
Up modestly from −$0.23 a month ago, reflecting slightly improving expectations but continued losses. ^[33]

In other words, analysts do not expect profitability anytime soon, but they are watching for narrowing adjusted losses and tangible commercial traction.

8. What Other Commentators Are Saying Right Now

Beyond formal analyst models, a flood of commentary has emerged around Rigetti in late 2025.

8.1 “The revenue miss doesn’t matter—cash does”

A mid‑November article syndicated via Finviz argues that Rigetti’s Q3 revenue miss is largely irrelevant at this stage; what matters most is the roughly $600 million in cash and short‑term investments. ^[34]

Key points from that piece:

The Q3 revenue shortfall (actual $1.9 million vs. $2.2 million expected) is small compared with future opportunities.
Rigetti’s cash stockpile is the key metric, because the company must fund heavy R&D while generating minimal revenue.
The cash pile theoretically gives Rigetti several years of runway to build systems of 150+ and 1,000+ qubits by 2026–27. ^[35]
Even so, the author calls RGTI a “high‑risk, high‑reward” bet, not a conservative holding. ^[36]

8.2 “Speculative bet or quantum leap?” — valuation worries

An AI‑generated but human‑edited AInvest article from December 7 labels Rigetti a “quantum leap dilemma” for investors: ^[37]

Market cap near $7.7–9+ billion versus about $1.95 million in quarterly revenue implies a price‑to‑sales ratio north of 1,000.
The stock fell over 40% in November as investors digested the huge Q3 net loss and stepped‑up cash burn.
The piece highlights Rigetti’s 559 million dollar cash balance and $19.7 million quarterly cash burn, stressing ongoing dilution risk as a key concern. ^[38]
It also warns of intense competition from Alphabet’s Willow processor and IBM/Microsoft’s quantum cloud ecosystems, suggesting that smaller players like Rigetti could be marginalized if tech giants hit scalable quantum advantage first. ^[39]

8.3 Bubble talk and sector‑wide comparisons

Nasdaq‑ and Finviz‑linked commentary has started to float the idea of a “quantum computing bubble”, pointing to extraordinary 12‑month gains in Rigetti and peers like D‑Wave and IonQ, followed by sharp corrections when earnings fail to match hype. ^[40]

Several recent Motley Fool headlines (summarized on Finviz) also frame Rigetti as: ^[41]

A potential multi‑bagger if quantum computing blossoms into a huge market,
But also a candidate for steep losses if the current enthusiasm unwinds or if competitors pull decisively ahead.

The tone across these pieces is cautiously skeptical: even writers intrigued by Rigetti’s technology stress that the stock is not for risk‑averse investors.

9. Key Risks Investors Are Weighing

Across research notes and media coverage, several recurring risk themes show up:

Extreme valuation vs. tiny revenue
With under $2 million in quarterly revenue and a multi‑billion‑dollar valuation, Rigetti trades at four‑digit price‑to‑sales multiples, according to multiple analyses. ^[42]
Ongoing losses and dilution
The company is burning tens of millions of dollars in cash per year, and several articles warn that additional equity offerings are likely, diluting existing shareholders if the company taps markets again. ^[43]
Competitive pressure from tech giants
Alphabet, IBM, Microsoft, Amazon and others all have rival quantum platforms, often backed by far more resources and deep integration with existing cloud businesses. ^[44]
Execution risk on the roadmap
Hitting 100+, 150+ and 1,000+ qubit systems with high fidelity by 2027 is technically challenging; delays or underperformance could damage credibility and pressure the stock. ^[45]
Sentiment‑driven trading
Options activity and retail‑investor enthusiasm have produced large short‑term spikes followed by sharp drops, as seen in November and early December. ^[46]

10. Potential Catalysts and What to Watch Next

On the positive side, several potential future catalysts could move Rigetti’s stock:

New system sales or large contracts
Additional Novera deployments or major cloud or government deals could validate demand for Rigetti’s hardware and shorten the path to meaningful revenue. ^[47]
Roadmap milestones
Investor attention will be intense around any demonstrations of >100 qubit systems with high fidelity, plus subsequent progress toward 150+ and 1,000+ qubit targets. ^[48]
Hybrid AI–quantum use cases
Deeper integration with NVIDIA NVQLink and cloud partners like AWS (via Amazon Braket) could open higher‑margin software and services opportunities beyond pure hardware sales. ^[49]
Analyst upgrades or downgrades
Given the wide spread in current price targets, any major revision—especially around the consensus ~$25–$40 range—could drive short‑term volatility. ^[50]
Macro sentiment toward speculative tech
Like other unprofitable growth names, Rigetti is sensitive to rates, liquidity and risk appetite. A shift in macro conditions can move the stock even without company‑specific news.

11. Bottom Line: A High‑Beta Quantum Pure‑Play, Not a Widows‑and‑Orphans Stock

As of December 8, 2025, Rigetti Computing sits at the intersection of:

Real technological progress (government contracts, system sales, a detailed qubit roadmap), ^[51]
A very strong balance sheet for an early‑stage hardware company (~$600 million cash), ^[52]
And extreme valuation and volatility, with deep ongoing losses, heavy dilution over the past year, and competition from some of the world’s biggest tech companies. ^[53]

Analysts are broadly positive on the long‑term opportunity, but their price targets range from low‑teens to low‑50s, reflecting just how uncertain the near‑term path is. ^[54]

For investors, that means Rigetti is best thought of as a speculative quantum‑computing pure‑play:

Upside: If the company executes its roadmap, converts its partnerships into recurring revenue, and carves out a defensible niche, today’s valuation could eventually be justified or even exceeded.
Downside: If technical milestones slip, cash burn accelerates, or competitors pull decisively ahead, the stock could give back a large portion of its recent multi‑hundred‑percent gains.

This article is informational only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Anyone considering RGTI should carefully assess their risk tolerance, time horizon, and diversification, and consult independent sources or a qualified adviser before making decisions in this highly speculative corner of the market.