New York time check: It is 2:46 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025.
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is seeing a sharp move in a session defined by thin, post‑holiday liquidity. As of the latest available trade, RGTI is at $22.57, down $1.94 (about -7.9%), after opening at $24.37 and trading in a $22.52–$24.51 intraday range, with roughly 19.9 million shares traded so far.
While the broader market is relatively calm—U.S. stocks were only slightly lower in midday trading with expectations for light volume after Christmas—Rigetti is acting like the kind of high‑beta, retail‑popular name that can swing hard when institutional desks are quieter. [1]
Below is a detailed, up‑to‑the‑moment look at what’s driving Rigetti stock, the most important recent company and sector headlines, and what analysts are forecasting into 2026.
Is the stock market open right now?
Yes. U.S. equities are trading today, and the core session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Nasdaq also highlights that extended trading exists (with broker differences), and cautions that volatility can be higher and liquidity lower outside the core session. [2]
NYSE’s calendar confirms the key holiday timing that set up this week’s liquidity pattern: an early close on Dec. 24, 2025, and a full close on Dec. 25, 2025. [3]
Why Rigetti (RGTI) stock is moving today
1) A “holiday gap” environment + high retail sensitivity
In today’s trading, multiple market narratives point to a classic late‑December setup: fewer big institutional flows, more room for retail sentiment to push small/mid‑cap momentum stocks around. Benzinga explicitly frames Rigetti’s Friday drop as a reversal after earlier‑week momentum, tied to holiday‑thinned trading conditions. [4]
2) Wall Street coverage is expanding—and not all of it is bullish
Rigetti has been in the spotlight as Wall Street has increasingly initiated coverage across the “pure‑play” quantum group. In 2025, major firms launched research on the sector, and Rigetti has received a mix of bullish and cautious calls. [5]
That “mixed-but-active” coverage matters in thin markets: new targets and notes can amplify moves, especially when the shareholder base includes momentum traders.
The bigger backdrop: post‑Christmas trading and the “Santa Claus rally” window
Today is part of the period many traders associate with the Santa Claus rally (late December through early January), but this year’s post‑holiday tape is still light and choppy. The Associated Press described midday trading as slightly lower with light volume expectations after the Christmas holiday. [6]
Separately, MarketWatch noted that Dec. 26 has historically been one of the most consistently positive days for the S&P 500, according to Bespoke Investment Group (a seasonal tailwind, not a guarantee). [7]
In other words: the broad market isn’t providing a strong directional cue—and that can leave high‑volatility names like RGTI trading more on sentiment, positioning, and headline flow.
Key Rigetti news investors are still pricing in
Q3 2025 results: tiny revenue, big GAAP loss, very large cash balance
Rigetti’s most recent quarterly report (for Q3 2025) showed:
- Revenue:$1.9 million
- Operating loss:$20.5 million
- GAAP net loss:$201.0 million
- Non‑GAAP net loss:$10.7 million
- Cash, cash equivalents, and available‑for‑sale investments:$558.9 million as of Sept. 30, 2025, and ~$600 million as of Nov. 6, 2025 (after warrant exercises) [8]
A crucial nuance: Quantum Computing Report notes the GAAP net loss was heavily affected by a large non‑cash loss tied to warrant liability revaluation, which can make headline profitability look dramatically worse than operational cash burn in a given quarter. [9]
Technology roadmap: 100+ qubits by end of 2025, 150+ by end of 2026, 1,000+ by end of 2027
Rigetti continues to pitch a scaling strategy built around chiplets and multi‑chip architectures.
From the company’s own disclosures and reproduced release details, management said it remains on track to deliver:
- A 100+ qubit chiplet-based system by end of 2025, targeting ~99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity
- A 150+ qubit system by end of 2026, targeting ~99.7%
- A 1,000+ qubit system by end of 2027, targeting ~99.8% [10]
In an SEC‑filed business update (Exhibit 99.1 dated Aug. 12, 2025), Rigetti described progress on Cepheus‑1‑36Q (a four‑chiplet system), including claims of a median two‑qubit gate fidelity of 99.5% and a 2x reduction in two‑qubit gate error rate versus its previous system, as well as reiterating the 100+ qubit end‑of‑year target. [11]
Commercial traction: $5.7M in purchase orders, but delivery expected in 2026
Rigetti highlighted purchase orders totaling approximately $5.7 million for two 9‑qubit Novera systems, with expected delivery in the first half of 2026—a reminder that even “good news” can arrive with revenue timing risk depending on delivery and recognition. [12]
Strategic partnership with Quanta Computer: long-term investment commitments + equity investment
Rigetti’s collaboration with Quanta Computer has been a centerpiece of the company’s strategic narrative. The company announced in February 2025 that both sides committed to investing more than $100 million each over five years, and that Quanta would invest $35 million in Rigetti (subject to regulatory clearance). [13]
An industry follow‑up reported that Rigetti later closed a $35 million strategic equity investment from Quanta, at an indicated purchase price of about $11.59 per share. [14]
Analyst forecasts: price targets cluster in the $30–$50 range, but ratings are split
Rigetti is getting real Wall Street attention now, and the targets vary widely depending on the analyst, assumptions, and valuation framework.
Recent initiations and notable calls
- Mizuho initiated with an Outperform and a $50 price target, pointing to scaling milestones and a strong cash position that could help fund operations beyond 2030 (per the firm’s framing). [15]
- Wedbush initiated with an Outperform and a $35 target, citing Rigetti’s experience and the breadth of use cases being explored in superconducting qubits. [16]
- Jefferies initiated with a Hold and a $30 target, explicitly flagging execution and revenue mix risks and noting the company’s dependence on early‑cycle tailwinds. [17]
Consensus targets (aggregators differ)
Depending on the data source and analyst set included:
- MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target around $31.22 (with a wide range). [18]
- StockAnalysis lists an average target around $29.38 and a “Buy” consensus from the analysts it tracks. [19]
- TipRanks, using its own tracked set, shows a higher average target and frames consensus as Moderate Buy (again, methodology and included analysts vary). [20]
What this means for investors: the Street is not arguing about whether quantum could be big someday—it’s arguing about timing, execution, and what multiple to pay while revenue is still extremely small.
The valuation debate: experts warn that “pricing the future” is messy
The most pointed near‑term debate around Rigetti is valuation versus fundamentals.
Reuters described quantum pure‑plays like Rigetti as extremely hard to value, quoting Sylvia Jablonski (Defiance ETFs) on the sense that sci‑fi is becoming technological reality, while Steve Sosnick (Interactive Brokers) questioned what the “right price” is for a “piece of the future.” Reuters also noted that Rigetti at one point went from around $1.06 to a recent high near $58, and characterized the stock’s valuation as extreme relative to sales. [21]
That dynamic—massive optionality but uncertain commercialization timelines—is exactly why the stock can surge on roadmap optimism and then drop hard on profit‑taking, a cautious analyst note, or a risk‑off day.
Policy and funding angle: government attention can move quantum stocks fast
Quantum is increasingly framed as strategic technology, and headline risk can be real.
Reuters reported in October that quantum stocks (including Rigetti) jumped after a report suggesting talks about the U.S. government taking equity stakes tied to funding arrangements—while also noting a Commerce official said the department was not currently negotiating such arrangements. [22]
Even when details are uncertain, these stories can drive big swings because they reinforce the idea that quantum may receive priority funding—and because many pure‑play quantum firms still have meaningful government exposure in their revenue mix.
What investors should know before the next session
Even though the market is open right now, there are several practical, near-term factors that often matter most for RGTI holders into the next trading day—especially heading into year‑end:
1) Expect thin liquidity and sharper moves into year-end
Post‑Christmas trading is widely expected to be lighter, and the AP highlighted that Friday trading would likely be light as investors returned from the holiday. [23]
For high‑volatility names, that can translate into bigger intraday swings and more frequent gap moves.
2) Know the timetable: regular close today, then weekend headline risk
Nasdaq’s core session runs until 4:00 p.m. ET, and extended hours trading may be available depending on your broker—but Nasdaq also warns extended markets can be riskier due to lower liquidity and higher volatility. [24]
Because today is Friday, the next regular session is Monday—meaning two full days where any company or sector headline can reprice the stock before the bell.
3) Watch for concrete updates on the 100+ qubit milestone
Rigetti’s near-term narrative hinges on whether the company can substantiate the end‑of‑2025 100+ qubit target and maintain or improve gate fidelity. [25]
In momentum-driven stocks, evidence of delivery often matters more than roadmap language.
4) Earnings timing: early March is the next widely-cited window (verify on IR)
Several market calendars currently point to early March 2026 for the next earnings report window (commonly cited around March 4, 2026, though schedules can change). Investors should confirm on the company’s Investor Relations pages when the official date is posted. [26]
Bottom line for Rigetti (RGTI) stock today
Rigetti’s selloff on December 26 is happening in a market session where the broader indexes are relatively steady but trading is thin. [27] The stock remains a focal point in the quantum theme thanks to:
- a large cash balance relative to its current revenue scale, [28]
- a technology roadmap with ambitious qubit and fidelity targets, [29]
- increased Wall Street coverage with targets spanning roughly $30 to $50, [30]
- and a valuation debate that even market professionals describe as “art more than science” when pricing far-future potential. [31]
That combination is powerful—but it’s also exactly why RGTI can move several percentage points in a single session with little warning.
References
1. apnews.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. www.benzinga.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. investingnews.com, 9. quantumcomputingreport.com, 10. investingnews.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. quantumcomputingreport.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. quantumcomputingreport.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. apnews.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. investingnews.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. apnews.com, 28. investingnews.com, 29. investingnews.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.reuters.com
