Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock: New $50 Price Target, Insider Selling and a Volatile Quantum Roadmap to 2027

Updated December 11, 2025

Rigetti Computing stock (NASDAQ: RGTI) has turned into one of the wildest stories in quantum computing and on the Nasdaq. Over the last 12 months, the share price has climbed more than 2,000%, even after a sharp pullback in recent weeks. ^[1] As of mid‑day on December 11, 2025, RGTI trades around the mid‑$20s per share and remains up more than 70% year to date, according to StockAnalysis and TipRanks data. ^[2]

Since November 21, 2025, Rigetti has seen:

Heavy volatility (including a 42% drop in November and a 15%+ spike in early December) ^[3]
Insider selling by top executives
A fresh Outperform/Buy rating from Mizuho with a $50 price target and bullish quantum industry thesis ^[4]
Ongoing debate over whether RGTI is a future quantum winner or a meme‑like bubble stock ^[5]

Here’s a detailed, news‑driven look at Rigetti stock from November 21, 2025 through today, including the latest forecasts and analyst views.

1. Where Rigetti Stock Stands Now

Price level: StockAnalysis shows RGTI around $26 per share in intraday trading on December 11, 2025. ^[6]
12‑month performance: A Nasdaq‑hosted Motley Fool article notes that Rigetti shares are up more than 2,000% over the last year, although they’ve fallen roughly 45–50% from their recent peak. ^[7]
Year‑to‑date performance: TipRanks reports RGTI is still up over 70% in 2025 despite the recent sell‑off. ^[8]

In other words, this is still a hyper‑volatile, momentum‑driven stock whose recent declines have only partially deflated a massive rally.

2. What Happened Around November 21, 2025?

Price action on November 21

Yahoo Finance’s historical data show that on November 21, 2025, RGTI:

Opened at $23.11
Hit a high of $23.68 and a low of $21.00
Closed at $23.59
Traded roughly 52.4 million shares in volume ^[9]

Day‑trading focused outlets like StocksToTrade and Timothy Sykes’ news feed highlighted the move, describing Rigetti as “trending up” by roughly 3–3.5% on heavy interest that day. ^[10]

Insider activity around that time

At almost the same time, new insider transactions hit the tape:

CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen reported selling 3,702 shares at about $26.35 on November 20, 2025 in a sell‑to‑cover transaction to satisfy tax obligations tied to RSUs. ^[11]
CTO David Rivas sold 41,935 shares on the same date, according to a Form 4 summarized by StockTitan and TipRanks, leaving him with more than 680,000 shares held directly. ^[12]

Yahoo Finance’s insider summary notes that five insider sale transactions across November and December 2025 totaled about $6.95 million in value. ^[13]

Some of these sales are clearly routine, tax‑driven sell‑to‑cover transactions, but the sheer dollar amount has still become part of the bear case that insiders are taking profits after a huge rally.

Institutional and speculative flows

A Motley Fool article titled “Institutional Investors Piled Into IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D‑Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. Stocks — and They’ll Likely Regret It” flagged that big funds rushed into quantum names — including RGTI — during 2025, warning that valuations now look stretched versus fundamentals. ^[14]

Combined with surging retail interest, that set up the brutal volatility that followed.

3. November’s 42% Plunge and December’s 15% Spike

The November drawdown

On December 3, 2025, Yahoo Finance reported that Rigetti stock had plunged 42% in November. ^[15] The article tied the drop to:

An 18% year‑over‑year revenue decline in Q3 2025
A GAAP net loss of $201 million for the quarter ^[16]

Despite that, the same period saw the 12‑month gain still above 2,000%, underscoring how extreme the earlier run‑up had been. ^[17]

Early December rebound

The selling was followed by a sharp rebound:

On December 4, 2025, MarketBeat reported that RGTI traded 15.4% higher intraday, jumping from about $26.04 to around $30 on 76.4 million shares of volume. ^[18]
MarketBeat also pegged Rigetti’s rating as a “Moderate Buy” at that time, with a consensus price target of $25.43, below the then‑current trading price, and noted that several firms had already trimmed their targets into the $35–$40 range. ^[19]

More recently, a Zacks/Reuters style recap noted that RGTI had fallen about 10% over the prior week, even though its adjusted Q3 loss per share of $0.03 beat expectations, while revenue declined year‑over‑year. ^[20]

This push‑and‑pull — big drawdowns followed by violent rallies — is now a defining feature of RGTI’s trading profile.

4. Q3 2025 Results: Tiny Revenue, Huge Losses, Big Cash Pile

Rigetti’s Q3 2025 earnings (released November 10) set the fundamental backdrop for all of this volatility. ^[21]

Key numbers from the company’s press release and independent write‑ups:

Revenue: $1.9 million for Q3 2025
- Up 5–6% quarter‑over‑quarter but down ~20% year‑over‑year ^[22]
Operating loss: $20.5 million in the quarter ^[23]
GAAP net loss: $201.0 million, largely driven by non‑cash warrant and earn‑out fair‑value adjustments ^[24]
Non‑GAAP net loss: $10.7 million, or $0.03 per share, which beat analyst expectations for a wider loss. ^[25]

On the balance sheet side:

Cash, cash equivalents and investments:
- $558.9 million as of September 30, 2025
- Approximately $600 million as of November 6, 2025 after $46.5 million in warrant‑exercise proceeds ^[26]

For a company with sub‑$10 million in expected 2025 revenue, that’s an extremely large cash pile, and it’s central to the bull case that Rigetti has the runway to chase its long‑term quantum roadmap.

Commercial progress

Despite the small revenue base, the company highlighted a handful of meaningful commercial wins: ^[27]

Purchase orders totaling ~$5.7 million for two 9‑qubit Novera™ on‑premises quantum systems (both upgradeable)
A $5.8 million contract from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) focused on superconducting quantum networking
Plans to open an Italian subsidiary to pursue European quantum opportunities
Deepening collaborations with NVIDIA (NVQLink), India’s C‑DAC and Montana State University to explore hybrid quantum‑AI and academic research

Quantum‑focused outlets like The Quantum Insider and Quantum Computing Report emphasized that Rigetti is still in the early commercialization stage but is moving to place systems and build partnerships that could seed longer‑term revenue. ^[28]

Technology roadmap

Rigetti also reaffirmed an aggressive qubit and fidelity roadmap: ^[29]

By end of 2025: Deliver a 100+‑qubit chiplet‑based system with ~99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity
By end of 2026: Scale to 150+ qubits with 99.7% fidelity
By end of 2027: Reach a 1,000+‑qubit system with 99.8% median two‑qubit gate fidelity

This roadmap is central to both Wall Street’s optimism and concerns about execution risk.

5. Analyst Calls Since November 21: Mizuho’s $50 Target vs. Valuation Worries

Mizuho initiates coverage with Outperform/Buy

On December 11, 2025, Mizuho Securities initiated coverage on Rigetti with an “Outperform” (Buy) rating and a $50 price target. ^[30]

Key points from coverage via GuruFocus, TipRanks, Barron’s and MarketWatch: ^[31]

The $50 target implies ~90% upside from current levels and values the stock at about 11x projected 2030 sales, still at a discount to Mizuho’s own DCF valuation. ^[32]
Analyst Vijay Rakesh sees quantum computing as a potential $205 billion market by 2035, with Rigetti potentially capturing around 10% market share, alongside IonQ (~16%) and D‑Wave (~10%). ^[33]
Mizuho highlights Rigetti’s roadmap to 150+ qubits in 2026 and 1,000+ qubits in 2027 with very high gate fidelities, viewing the company as the most comparable small‑cap peer to IBM and Google among superconducting‑based quantum players. ^[34]
Rakesh also points to Rigetti’s strong cash position (roughly $600 million as of early November) as support for development well into the 2030s. ^[35]

Other recent analyst moves

Coverage in November was more mixed:

On November 12, 2025, Benchmark maintained a Buy but cut its price target from $50 to $40. ^[36]
That same day, B. Riley Securities kept a Neutral rating while trimming its target from $42 to $35. ^[37]
Earlier, on November 3, B. Riley downgraded Rigetti from Strong Buy to Hold even as it raised its target from $35 to $42, reflecting concerns about risk‑reward at elevated prices. ^[38]

According to StockAnalysis and TipRanks:

6 analysts currently cover Rigetti.
The average 12‑month price target is about $28.33, implying ~7.6% upside from recent levels, with a low target of $12 and a high of $50. ^[39]
The rating skews bullish, with an overall consensus of “Strong Buy” / “Moderate Buy” depending on the aggregator, based on roughly 5 Buy and 1–2 Hold ratings. ^[40]

Interestingly, GuruFocus shows that while brokers see upside, its proprietary GF Value model pegs Rigetti’s one‑year “fair value” around $0.89, implying over 90% downside from the current price — a stark reminder that quantitative valuation tools view RGTI as deeply overvalued versus its fundamentals. ^[41]

6. Fundamental Forecasts: Revenue and Earnings Outlook

Wall Street forecasts aggregated by StockAnalysis point to continued losses but rapid revenue growth: ^[42]

2025 revenue: About $7.7 million, down roughly 28% from 2024
2026 revenue: About $20.7 million, up ~167% from 2025
EPS 2025: Around ‑$0.18
EPS 2026: Slightly better at ‑$0.16

This implies:

Very modest revenue relative to the company’s multi‑billion‑dollar market capitalization
No expectation of near‑term profitability, even into 2026

Analysts are essentially betting that Rigetti’s technology roadmap and early contracts will translate into a steep revenue curve later in the decade, far beyond the explicit forecast window.

7. Bulls vs. Bears: Hype, Meme Dynamics and Insider Signals

The bull case

The bullish thesis, as outlined by Mizuho and other optimistic analysts, looks something like this: ^[43]

Massive industry TAM: Quantum computing could become a $200+ billion market by the 2030s.
Technology roadmap: If Rigetti hits its 1,000‑qubit, high‑fidelity targets by 2027, it could be among the first pure‑play companies with hardware capable of delivering real‑world quantum advantage.
Strategic partnerships: Collaboration with NVIDIA (NVQLink), academic institutions, and government agencies (AFRL, C‑DAC, etc.) positions Rigetti inside important ecosystems for hybrid AI‑quantum workloads. ^[44]
Strong balance sheet: A roughly $600 million cash buffer gives the company runway well into the next decade, even while it runs substantial losses. ^[45]

In this view, Rigetti is a high‑beta call option on quantum computing becoming commercially meaningful — and on Rigetti being one of the winners.

The bear case

Bearish analyses, particularly from The Motley Fool and other fundamental‑focused outlets, highlight a very different picture: ^[46]

Narrative‑driven rally: Recent gains have been driven more by hype, social media and meme‑stock dynamics than by improving fundamentals.
Tiny revenue, big losses: With annual revenue in the single‑digit millions and recurring losses, any traditional valuation model struggles to justify an $8–11 billion valuation. ^[47]
Insider selling: CEO Subodh Kulkarni earlier exercised options to buy 1 million shares at $0.96 and sold them around $12, locking in about $11 million in profit outside a pre‑scheduled 10b5‑1 plan — which some interpret as a sign he viewed the stock as overvalued at that time. ^[48]
Recent insider transactions by the CFO and CTO, plus additional sales totaling nearly $7 million in late 2025, further fuel concerns that insiders are using rallies to cash out. ^[49]

TipRanks’ AI “Spark” model even rates RGTI as Neutral, citing weak financials and bearish technicals despite long‑term technological promise. ^[50]

8. Key Risks and What to Watch Next

Major risks for RGTI investors

Anyone considering Rigetti stock should be aware of several outsized risks:

Extreme volatility
- Double‑digit daily moves in both directions are now common; November alone saw a 42% monthly drop followed by a rapid rebound. ^[51]
Execution risk on the roadmap
- The roadmap to 1,000+ qubits and near‑fault‑tolerant fidelities by 2027 is ambitious. Missing those milestones, or competitors beating Rigetti to usable quantum advantage, could severely damage the equity story. ^[52]
Commercialization uncertainty
- Most current revenue comes from research contracts and early system sales, not repeatable enterprise customers, and analysts still expect negative EPS for several years. ^[53]
Valuation risk
- Quantitative valuation models (like GuruFocus’ GF Value) see Rigetti as massively overvalued, and even bullish analysts note that their targets rely on distant future revenue estimates and generous multiples. ^[54]
Regulatory and funding risk
- Government contracts, grants and policy support play a meaningful role in quantum funding. Any shift in budgets or priorities could affect Rigetti’s pipeline. ^[55]

Catalysts to watch after November 21, 2025

Looking beyond the current news cycle, investors tracking RGTI may want to monitor:

Progress on the 100+‑qubit system by the end of 2025, including any technical benchmarks around gate fidelity and error rates. ^[56]
Revenue recognition from the two Novera systems and the AFRL networking contract, which could begin to move the top line meaningfully off today’s low base. ^[57]
Updates on DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, where Rigetti was not initially selected for Stage B but remains in discussion and hopes to participate later. ^[58]
Any further analyst rating changes, especially if more firms follow Mizuho in setting aggressive targets or, conversely, start downgrading the stock after the recent spike. ^[59]
Additional insider transactions, which the market is watching closely after the recent string of executive sales. ^[60]

9. Bottom Line: A High‑Risk Quantum Lottery Ticket

From November 21, 2025 through today, Rigetti Computing has gone from a red‑hot quantum meme stock to a battleground name where:

Wall Street analysts — led by Mizuho’s new $50 price target — argue it could be a long‑term winner in a trillion‑dollar‑scale computing shift. ^[61]
Skeptics point to near‑zero revenues, gigantic losses, insider selling and bubble‑like price action as warning signs. ^[62]

RGTI is effectively a speculative bet on the entire quantum computing theme, plus Rigetti’s ability to execute better than larger, better‑funded rivals. For traders, that can mean extraordinary upside and equally severe downside.

For long‑term investors, it’s crucial to:

Separate quantum computing’s long‑term potential from Rigetti’s specific execution and valuation risk.
Size any position as a high‑risk, high‑volatility slice of a diversified portfolio, if at all.

This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.