Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) remains one of the wildest rides in global tech markets. After a bruising 42% slide in November, the quantum computing specialist has roared back this week on speculation of stronger U.S. government backing and renewed trader appetite for “next‑big‑thing” themes. [1]
As of late trading on Friday, December 5, 2025, Rigetti stock is changing hands at about $28 per share, down from Thursday’s close near $30 but still significantly above its early‑week levels. Over the past year, some estimates suggest Rigetti’s trailing 12‑month gain briefly approached 5,000%+, making it one of the most explosive “quantum pure plays” on Wall Street. [2]
Below is a detailed look at all major RGTI stock news, forecasts and analyses relevant as of December 5, 2025, including the latest analyst calls, institutional moves and technical signals.
1. Rigetti Stock Today: After a 15% Spike, a Volatile Friday Pullback
On Thursday, December 4, Rigetti shares jumped about 15.4% intraday, surging from a prior close of $26.04 to trade around $30.06 on extremely heavy volume of roughly 76.4 million shares. [3]
That move came after several weeks of intense selling:
- In November, RGTI plunged around 42% as investors reacted to an 18% year‑over‑year revenue decline and a massive GAAP net loss reported in Q3 2025. [4]
- Even after that drop, Rigetti is still up many multiples over the last 12 months, with one Nasdaq/Motley Fool analysis noting trailing one‑year gains that at one point neared 5,400%. [5]
On Friday, December 5, the stock is giving back part of Thursday’s rally, trading near $28 in afternoon action. The intraday range has stretched from the high‑$27s to above $30, underscoring the name’s extreme volatility. [6]
Key trading stats now frequently cited in coverage:
- 52‑week low: about $1.25
- 52‑week high: about $58.15
- Market cap: around $9–11 billion, depending on the price snapshot
- Revenue (FY 2024): roughly $10.8 million, highlighting a price‑to‑sales multiple in the hundreds. [7]
For traders, RGTI is a classic high‑beta momentum stock—capable of double‑digit moves in a single day in either direction.
2. Fresh News on 5 December 2025: Quantum Rebound and Institutional Buying
Zacks: “Rigetti Shares on the Run” After Six‑Week Correction
A new Zacks Investment Ideas note (syndicated via Nasdaq) on December 5 highlights Rigetti alongside IonQ and D‑Wave Quantum as part of a technical rebound across the “quantum trio.” [8]
Key points about Rigetti from the report:
- Quantum stocks suffered a sharp six‑week correction, with some names dropping up to 65% from October highs.
- RGTI’s chart shows “a deep pullback, a multi‑week coil, and now a clean move back above resistance,” which Zacks interprets as confirmation that buyers are returning.
- The firm stresses Rigetti remains a high‑risk, high‑volatility name—any position should be sized carefully and managed with strict risk controls. [9]
Zacks stops short of issuing a direct buy recommendation, but frames the current pattern as a constructive technical setup for risk‑tolerant investors.
MarketBeat: Rhumbline Advisers Increases Stake 52.5%
Also dated December 5, a MarketBeat piece notes that Rhumbline Advisers boosted its position in Rigetti during Q2 by 52.5%, adding 143,784 shares to bring its total holdings to 417,602 shares. [10]
That stake—filed with the SEC in a 13F—suggests that at least some traditional institutions are willing to ride out the quantum volatility, even as others pull back.
Motley Fool / Nasdaq: Quantum Pure‑Plays Could Soar… or Pop
A separate article syndicated by Nasdaq on December 5 reviews four “pure‑play” quantum stocks—IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc.—and notes: [11]
- Over the trailing year to December 2, these stocks have risen up to 684%, with Rigetti at one point logging trailing 12‑month gains near 5,400%.
- Select Wall Street analysts see triple‑digit upside (113%–264%) for some quantum names in 2026.
- However, the article warns that 2026 could be “rough” for the group due to sky‑high valuations, ongoing losses, heavy cash burn and potential share dilution, arguing that current prices look “bubble‑like” when compared to sales.
For Rigetti specifically, the piece groups it among companies that may need to issue more stock or raise debt to fund their roadmaps, given their early‑stage revenue and large R&D budgets. [12]
3. Thursday’s Catalyst: Hints of U.S. Government Backing
The immediate spark for Thursday’s 15% spike came from speculation about U.S. government support for quantum computing.
A short TradingView/GuruFocus news item reports that RGTI shares “surged about 15% on Thursday” after Nobel laureate John Martinis warned that China has “closed much of the lead” in quantum technology. Investors interpreted his comments as a signal that the U.S. government may step up support for domestic quantum firms, possibly via funding or contracts that would directly benefit companies like Rigetti. [13]
This follows an October report in The Wall Street Journal, summarized by 24/7 Wall St., that the Trump administration is exploring taking equity stakes in several quantum players, including Rigetti, IonQ, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc. The goal: bolster U.S. leadership in quantum tech amid intensifying competition with China. [14]
Although the Commerce Department publicly denied being in active talks with these companies, the mere prospect of federal equity stakes sent Rigetti shares up around 18% in pre‑market trading on that October news, showing how sensitive the stock is to any hint of government involvement. [15]
Taken together, the Martinis comments and government‑stake rumors help explain why traders have rushed back into RGTI this week despite mixed fundamentals.
4. Q3 2025 Earnings: Revenue Miss, Huge GAAP Loss, Ambitious Roadmap
Most of today’s analysis still circles back to Rigetti’s Q3 2025 report, released on November 10, 2025.
Headline Numbers
According to the company’s own release and multiple earnings write‑ups: [16]
- Revenue: about $1.9–1.95 million, down ~18% year over year and below analyst estimates around $2.2 million.
- GAAP net loss: roughly $201 million (or about $0.62 per share), driven largely by non‑cash warrant revaluation charges.
- Non‑GAAP net loss: approximately $10.7 million (about $0.03 per share), which actually beat expectations for a wider loss.
- Operating loss: around $20.5 million.
Analysts at Investors Business Daily and others described the quarter as a “mixed” result—better than feared on adjusted earnings but clearly weak on revenue growth and still deeply loss‑making. [17]
Commercial Deals and Government Contracts
Despite the revenue miss, Rigetti highlighted several encouraging commercial and government wins: [18]
- Purchase orders totaling about $5.7 million for two Novera™ quantum systems (9‑qubit hardware), signalling growing demand for on‑premises systems.
- A $5.8 million contract with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory focused on quantum networking.
- Plans to expand into Italy and deepen collaborations with NVIDIA, India’s C‑DAC and Montana State University for hybrid quantum+AI research.
These deals are modest in absolute dollars but important as early proof points that enterprises and governments are willing to pay for quantum capabilities today—not just experiment in the cloud.
Technology Roadmap: Toward 100+ and 1,000+ Qubits
In the same Q3 communication and follow‑up commentary, Rigetti reaffirmed and extended its roadmap: [19]
- Targeting delivery of a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based system with high two‑qubit gate fidelity by late 2025.
- Planning to deploy a 150+ qubit system around the end of 2026, aiming for ~99.7% median two‑qubit gate fidelity.
- Laying out an “aggressive” path to 1,000+ qubits by 2027, which would push the company into a class of machines potentially capable of economically relevant workloads, depending on error rates and algorithm advances.
This roadmap is a major reason many investors still view RGTI as a potential “quantum moonshot”, despite today’s tiny revenue base.
5. Ownership Trends: Hedge Funds Trim, Others Add, Insiders Cash Out
Penserra Capital and Other Institutions
A November 8 MarketBeat report noted that Penserra Capital Management cut its Rigetti stake by 23.2% in Q2, selling 514,430 shares and ending the period with 1,701,241 shares, about 0.59% of the company, valued near $20.2 million at the time. [20]
The same article highlighted:
- Institutional and hedge fund ownership sits around 35% of the float.
- Several small institutions have been nibbling at the stock, while some larger holders and company insiders have been net sellers. [21]
Insider Selling
Recent filings show substantial insider sales, including: [22]
- A director selling 62,000 shares around $44.89, for proceeds of roughly $2.8 million.
- Another director unloading 75,000–100,000 shares in the high‑teens to low‑$20s, with insiders collectively selling roughly 400k–450k shares over the past 90 days for about $9–10 million.
Insiders still hold under 2% of outstanding shares, according to these reports. While insider selling is common after huge rallies, the scale reinforces how far and fast the stock has run relative to fundamentals.
6. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Consensus Buy, But Wildly Split
Across Wall Street, Rigetti Computing remains officially a “Buy” story—but the numbers under the surface are all over the map.
Street Consensus
- MarketBeat compiles 7 analyst ratings: 5 Buys, 1 Hold, 1 Sell, for an overall “Moderate Buy” and an average price target around $25–29 per share—ironically below the current price. [23]
- TipRanks shows a “Moderate Buy” based on seven analysts, with an average target of $40.60, implying about 50–60% upside from current levels, and a spread of five Buys and two Holds over the past three months. [24]
- StockAnalysis presents a slightly different lens, with 5 analysts rating the stock a “Strong Buy” but an average 12‑month target of about $24, which would actually mean a double‑digit decline from recent trading levels. [25]
Taken together, these services paint a picture of bullish sentiment with cautious targeting: analysts like the long‑term story but are increasingly nervous that the share price has outrun their models.
Individual Analyst Moves
Recent analyst actions referenced across Barron’s and MarketBeat include: [26]
- B. Riley Securities (Craig Ellis) downgrading Rigetti from Buy to Neutral, while toggling its target between about $35 and $42 as the stock surged. Ellis highlighted $11.5 million in recent deals and roadmap progress but warned about delays in U.S. government funding and the company’s heavy reliance on such contracts.
- Benchmark raising a price target up to $50 earlier this year, then later trimming it back to around $40 while maintaining a Buy rating.
- Other brokers setting targets in the mid‑teens to high‑$30s, again reflecting optimism about quantum computing but discomfort with current valuation multiples.
Overall, Wall Street seems to be saying: Rigetti’s tech is interesting, but its stock price may already assume a lot of success.
7. Short‑Term Technical and Quantitative Forecasts
Beyond human analysts, several quant and AI‑driven platforms provide short‑term forecasts for RGTI—and they are mostly cautious.
Intellectia.ai: Near‑Term Bearish, Longer‑Term Lower
An Intellectia.ai technical forecast updated for early December notes: [27]
- RGTI currently carries 1 buy signal vs. 4 sell signals, yielding an overall “Sell” technical rating.
- The 20‑day moving average sits below the 60‑day, signalling a bearish mid‑term trend even as the stock bounces.
- The model flags resistance around $31.39 and $34.90 and support near $20.01 and $16.49.
- Its pattern‑matching engine projects about an –8% move over the next month and forecasts a much lower average price (~$10.84) for December 2026 in its long‑range scenario.
StockInvest.us: Short‑Term Buy, Long‑Term Caution
Technical research from StockInvest.us after Thursday’s rally observes that: [28]
- The 15.44% daily jump came with rising volume, which is “typically a good technical signal.”
- RGTI now has a short‑term moving‑average buy signal and a 3‑month MACD buy, but a longer‑term moving‑average sell signal.
- The site labels the stock “very high risk” due to its huge daily swings and recommends tight stop‑loss discipline.
CoinCodex: Expect Volatility and Potential Pullback
Crypto/stock hybrid forecaster CoinCodex expects the price to trend downward in the coming days, projecting a potential dip to around $23.29 by December 8, 2025 and a negative return of about –11–12% over the next week, even while modeling a small uptick for “tomorrow.” [29]
The bottom line from these models: momentum is back, but the probability of sharp pullbacks remains high, and most quant systems do not see a smooth path higher from today’s levels.
8. Macro and Sector Context: Roller‑Coaster “Quantum 4” and Bubble Concerns
Rigetti’s story can’t be separated from the broader “Quantum 4” cohort of pure‑play quantum stocks—IonQ, Rigetti, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc.
A Reuters feature on November 5 describes these stocks as taking speculators on a “roller‑coaster ride,” highlighting that: [30]
- Rigetti’s stock price has run from around $1.06 to a high near $58 within a short span.
- The company at one point traded at more than 1,000 times sales, compared with about 50x sales for Nvidia, a far more mature AI leader.
- Quantum pure‑plays remain unprofitable, relying on investor optimism about future demand.
The latest Motley Fool/Nasdaq column on December 5 echoes this, arguing that quantum stocks today resemble earlier tech bubbles where price‑to‑sales ratios above 30x often signalled unsustainable valuations. It warns that all four quantum pure‑plays are burning cash rapidly and may rely on dilutive equity offerings to fund their multi‑year roadmaps. [31]
For Rigetti specifically:
- Trefis notes that the stock fell 96% from its March 2022 high to its May 2023 low, later fully recovering and then climbing to about $56.34 by October 15, 2025 before the recent correction. [32]
- Despite that violent volatility, the firm argues RGTI could still recover even if markets weaken, given its sizeable cash position and still‑early commercialization phase—though execution risk is high.
In short, Rigetti sits at the intersection of cutting‑edge technology, geopolitical competition and speculative trading, a mix that makes dramatic boom‑bust cycles almost inevitable.
9. What Today’s Rigetti News and Forecasts Mean for Investors
Putting all of today’s news and recent analysis together, several themes stand out for anyone tracking Rigetti Computing stock as of December 5, 2025:
- The stock is trading more like an option on the future of quantum computing than a traditional business.
Revenue remains under $2 million per quarter while the market values Rigetti at billions of dollars, implying enormous expectations for future adoption. [33] - Government policy is a key swing factor.
Rumors of federal equity stakes and comments about China’s quantum progress have been enough to move the stock by double‑digit percentages in a single day, underscoring how dependent Rigetti may be on U.S. government contracts and strategic funding. [34] - The technology roadmap is ambitious but unproven at commercial scale.
Delivering 100+ qubit and eventually 1,000‑qubit systems with high‑fidelity gates by 2027 would be a major technical achievement, but there is still uncertainty about when such machines will generate meaningful, recurring revenue. [35] - Analysts are bullish on the tech, wary of the valuation.
Most major brokers rate RGTI a Buy or Moderate Buy, yet consensus targets range from the high teens to $40+, some below today’s price. That suggests a limited margin of safety if anything goes wrong. [36] - Short‑term models lean toward caution.
AI and technical services like Intellectia, StockInvest and CoinCodex see elevated downside risk and high volatility, even as momentum traders re‑enter on breakout patterns flagged by Zacks and others.
10. Key Things to Watch Next
For readers following Rigetti Computing through Google News or Discover, the following catalysts are likely to shape RGTI stock in the coming weeks and months:
- Updates on U.S. government quantum funding or potential equity stakes in private firms.
- Execution against the 100‑qubit and 150‑qubit milestones, including any independent benchmarking of performance and error rates.
- Progress turning one‑off contracts into recurring revenue, particularly around the Novera hardware line and quantum‑as‑a‑service deals.
- Cash burn and capital‑raising activity—any secondary offerings or convertible debt could weigh on the stock even if the tech story remains intact.
- Sector sentiment across the broader “Quantum 4” group, which tends to move as a pack in response to macro headlines and AI hype cycles.
Important note: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a guarantee of future performance. Quantum computing stocks like Rigetti are highly speculative; investors should do their own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making decisions.
References
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