December 23, 2025 — Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is back in the spotlight as quantum-computing stocks churn through sharp end‑of‑year moves. By 17:55 UTC (about 12:55 p.m. ET), Rigetti shares traded around $25.24, down roughly 6% on the session after a stronger prior close, with an intraday range near $25.20–$26.82 and volume above 20 million shares.
The day’s pullback underscores a defining feature of the “pure‑play” quantum group: even modest headlines, analyst notes, or positioning flows can translate into outsized price swings. And with multiple Wall Street firms now publishing fresh coverage and price targets into 2026, Rigetti’s debate has shifted from “is this science fiction?” to “how do you value a company racing toward fault‑tolerant hardware while revenue is still small?” [1]
What’s happening with RGTI stock on December 23, 2025
Market commentary around Rigetti today has centered on two things:
- A gap-down after a big move: MarketBeat flagged that the stock gapped lower at the open after the prior session’s close, a pattern that often appears when traders lock in quick gains or when short-term momentum cools. [2]
- Year-end “flow” effects: One widely circulated explanation for Monday’s surge in parts of the quantum group is year‑end portfolio repositioning (“window dressing”)—a reminder that December price action can be influenced by positioning as much as fundamentals. [3]
Still, the bigger story isn’t just today’s red candle. It’s that Rigetti is now being priced—minute by minute—against a rapidly evolving roadmap and a growing set of analyst forecasts about what quantum spending could look like by the end of the decade.
The sector backdrop: quantum stocks seek a floor as Wall Street coverage expands
Over the past week, sector sentiment has seesawed. Investopedia reported that quantum computing favorites—including Rigetti—have been pressured amid broader tech concerns, including chatter about an AI bubble, yet at least one major Wall Street bull remains constructive on the group’s long-term trajectory. [4]
At the same time, a Reuters analysis earlier in November captured why quantum stocks have become a magnet for retail and momentum traders: valuations can look extreme against current revenue, and the group has earned a reputation for roller-coaster volatility as investors try to price “a piece of the future.” [5]
That volatility is now colliding with a new dynamic: more banks and research shops are initiating coverage of pure-play names. Investor’s Business Daily summarized that in 2025, multiple firms—from bulge-bracket banks to sector specialists—have stepped up quantum research, with Rigetti receiving more mixed assessments than some peers. [6]
Rigetti’s core bet: chiplets, superconducting qubits, and scaling fidelity
Rigetti builds superconducting, gate-based quantum processors, and the company’s near-term credibility with investors increasingly rests on whether it can scale systems while improving error rates (often discussed via gate fidelity).
In a June 2025 Form 10‑Q filing, Rigetti described major system milestones and fidelity progress, including:
- An 84‑qubit Ankaa™‑3 system launched in late 2024, alongside reported two‑qubit gate fidelity improvements (including 99.0% median two‑qubit iSWAP fidelity and a 99.5% median two‑qubit fidelity demonstration using fSim gates). [7]
- A modular 36‑qubit system (built from four 9‑qubit “chiplets”) designed as a path toward a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system. [8]
- A stated expectation to release a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity before the end of 2025. [9]
For stock watchers, that last point is a key calendar item: a “roadmap year” often becomes a “prove-it year” in emerging hardware—especially in quantum, where delays can reshape sentiment quickly.
The latest financial snapshot: tiny revenue, big accounting noise, and a large cash runway
Rigetti’s most recent reported quarter has been widely parsed across quantum-industry publications because it combines three seemingly contradictory signals: low revenue, large GAAP losses, and substantial liquidity.
Quantum Computing Report summarized Rigetti’s Q3 2025 metrics at roughly $1.9 million in revenue, operating expenses around $21.0 million, and a GAAP net loss that ballooned to about $201 million—which the outlet attributed largely to a non-cash swing tied to derivative warrant accounting rather than core operating burn. [10]
The same report highlighted Rigetti’s cash position of about $558.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, and noted that proceeds from warrant exercises later lifted liquidity to roughly $600 million (figures echoed in additional coverage). [11]
Why it matters for investors: quantum hardware timelines can be long, and Rigetti’s balance sheet is often cited by analysts as a differentiator—because it can fund R&D and system scaling without immediately needing new capital.
Contracts and partnerships investors are watching
Beyond qubits and accounting, Rigetti has been stacking a set of commercial and government-aligned signals that bulls argue could support longer-term adoption:
1) On-premises system orders
Quantum Computing Report highlighted approximately $5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9‑qubit Novera™ systems—framed as evidence of demand for on‑premises quantum hardware. [12]
2) U.S. Air Force quantum networking work with QphoX
A major headline catalyst in 2025 has been Rigetti’s three‑year, $5.8 million contract tied to the Air Force Research Laboratory, alongside Dutch startup QphoX, aimed at advancing superconducting quantum networking. [13]
3) NVIDIA NVQLink and the hybrid quantum-classical push
One of the most strategic themes in quantum today is hybrid integration—connecting quantum processors to classical supercomputers to speed calibration, control, and error correction workflows.
On October 28, 2025, NVIDIA announced NVQLink, describing it as an open architecture for tightly coupling GPU computing and quantum processors, and listing Rigetti among participating quantum hardware builders. [14]
Rigetti’s broader ecosystem messaging has leaned into this direction as well, with industry coverage describing NVQLink support as part of a push toward hybrid quantum-AI development. [15]
4) International and academic collaborations
Coverage of Rigetti’s Q3 period also pointed to partnerships and expansion moves, including collaboration efforts with India’s C‑DAC and work with Montana State University, as well as plans tied to European expansion. [16]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: why Wall Street is split on RGTI
The most market-moving “forecast” inputs for Rigetti right now are not long-range retail predictions—they’re freshly published analyst initiations and consensus price targets.
A TipRanks roundup published this week described a cautiously optimistic Street view heading into 2026, including:
- Wedbush initiating with a $35 price target
- Mizuho initiating with a $50 target
- Jefferies initiating with a Hold and a $30 target
TipRanks also reported a Moderate Buy consensus and cited an average price target around $39.75 (based on the set of analysts it tracks). [17]
Separately, Investopedia reported Wedbush initiated “outperform” coverage across multiple pure-play quantum names and set a $35 target for Rigetti—framing quantum as a potentially “transformational” compute layer over time, even if near-term pressure persists. [18]
But the caution case hasn’t disappeared. Reuters reported that even analysts who raise targets may still downgrade on valuation concerns—citing examples of target increases paired with more neutral ratings in the quantum group amid “more art than science” valuation debates. [19]
Why consensus targets differ depending on the source
Readers comparing price targets across platforms will notice a wide range—because different aggregators include different analysts, update schedules, and methodologies. The key takeaway isn’t the precise “average”; it’s the dispersion—a sign that outcomes are highly sensitive to execution and adoption timing.
Bull case vs. bear case for Rigetti stock
Here’s how today’s research and reporting typically frames the debate:
The bull case
- Roadmap credibility: delivering the 100+ qubit chiplet-based system target (and fidelity goals) is a near-term proof point. [20]
- Runway to build: multiple reports emphasize Rigetti’s cash and investments position as a buffer for long R&D cycles. [21]
- Hybrid momentum: NVQLink and CUDA‑Q integration efforts strengthen the narrative that quantum’s path to value runs through hybrid workflows, not isolated quantum boxes. [22]
- Government and strategic contracts: Air Force networking work and other collaborations can validate tech and fund development. [23]
The bear case
- Revenue remains small: even supportive coverage acknowledges that quantum pure-plays are still early in commercialization, which makes valuation fragile when sentiment shifts. [24]
- Execution risk: consistent delivery matters, especially after prior roadmap slips referenced in analyst commentary. [25]
- Customer mix and visibility: reliance on government and early-cycle deals can add uncertainty to near-term revenue predictability. [26]
- Volatility is structural: Reuters’ reporting on the sector highlights how quickly prices can detach from fundamentals as traders chase the theme. [27]
What to watch next: the near-term catalyst calendar into early 2026
For investors and readers tracking Rigetti through year-end and into Q1 2026, the highest-signal items are:
- End-of-2025 hardware milestone: progress toward the 100+ qubit chiplet-based system and fidelity targets. [28]
- Evidence of commercial follow-through: deliveries and customer expansion tied to system orders highlighted in Q3 coverage. [29]
- Hybrid ecosystem updates: whether NVQLink-related integration and partner activity translates into measurable performance, adoption, or new contracts. [30]
- Next earnings window: multiple market calendars list Rigetti’s next report around March 4, 2026 (timing can change, but it’s a widely referenced marker). [31]
Bottom line: Rigetti is trading the roadmap as much as the numbers
Rigetti’s stock action on December 23, 2025 is less about a single headline and more about the intersection of (1) theme-driven volatility in quantum, (2) a new wave of analyst initiations with targets stretching from cautious to aggressive, and (3) a company-specific story where technical milestones may matter more than near-term revenue.
For long-term investors, the question is whether Rigetti can convert its chiplet architecture and improving fidelities into repeatable commercial demand—while making hybrid quantum-classical integration a practical advantage, not just a slide-deck narrative. For short-term traders, the message is simpler: RGTI remains a high-beta name in a sector that can swing hard on sentiment. [32]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. finviz.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. quantumcomputingreport.com, 11. quantumcomputingreport.com, 12. quantumcomputingreport.com, 13. thequantuminsider.com, 14. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 15. thequantuminsider.com, 16. thequantuminsider.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. quantumcomputingreport.com, 22. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 23. www.businessinsider.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. thequantuminsider.com, 30. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.sec.gov
