Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is having a very “late-2025 markets” kind of week: a pure-play quantum computing name with a tiny revenue base, a long technology runway, and big, fast stock swings as investors chase (and sometimes flee) the next potential computing platform.
After a sharp rally in quantum-related stocks on Monday, Rigetti stock pulled back in early Tuesday trading (Dec. 23, 2025)—a reminder that when liquidity thins around the holidays and options activity heats up, price discovery can look more like a trampoline than a staircase.
As of around 10:05 a.m. ET on Dec. 23, RGTI traded near $25.59, down about 4.8% on the session after a $26.88 prior close, with roughly 8.6 million shares traded and an intraday range of $25.62 to $26.73. The stock’s 52-week range (about $5.95 to $58.15) captures just how extreme the volatility can get. StockAnalysis
What’s driving Rigetti stock right now
1) The “quantum rally” is real—and so is the profit-taking
Quantum computing stocks have been swinging hard into year-end, and Rigetti has been moving with the pack. Fast Company noted that profit-taking appeared to be underway early Tuesday, with Rigetti down about 1.58% in early trading at the time, following strong moves across the sector. Fast Company
The same Fast Company piece also pointed to the broader narrative powering these moves: investor enthusiasm that quantum could become the “next big thing” after AI, despite the speculative nature of near-term commercialization. Fast Company
2) Options activity has been unusually heavy
One underappreciated accelerant: options flow.
Nasdaq’s options-activity recap showed Rigetti options volume of 151,787 contracts on Monday (Dec. 22). That’s the equivalent of roughly 15.2 million underlying shares, about 41% of RGTI’s average daily share volume over the prior month (per the article’s framing). The most active contract highlighted was the $27 strike call expiring Dec. 26, 2025, with 9,405 contracts traded. Nasdaq
Heavy call activity doesn’t guarantee direction—but in a high-beta, retail-favored stock, it can amplify momentum both ways.
3) Wall Street coverage is arriving—and the market is reacting
Another big catalyst: a fresh wave of analyst initiations across the quantum “pure plays.”
Investor’s Business Daily reported that several major firms initiated coverage on quantum computing stocks in 2025 (including JPMorgan, Jefferies, Evercore ISI, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Mizuho), alongside broader sector research from Barclays and Bank of America—but also stressed that the group remains volatile because commercialization is still uncertain. Investors
Rigetti, specifically, has received a mix of optimism and caution, and that tension is showing up in price targets.
Analyst forecasts for RGTI: price targets and what they’re betting on
In the last two weeks, three Wall Street views have helped define the current debate around Rigetti stock:
Wedbush: Outperform, $35 target
Wedbush initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $35 price target, highlighting Rigetti’s decade-plus experience and positioning in superconducting qubits as a reason it could benefit from long-term growth in quantum hardware. Investing
That stance lines up with a broader Wedbush bull view on the quantum cohort. Investopedia summarized Wedbush’s optimism on quantum computing stocks (including Rigetti), arguing the technology could become increasingly important—especially as it intersects with AI—by the end of the decade. Investopedia
Mizuho: Outperform, $50 target
Mizuho initiated Rigetti with an Outperform rating and a $50 price target, explicitly anchoring part of its bullish case on Rigetti’s scaling roadmap—including targets for 150+ qubits by end of 2026 and 1,000+ qubits by end of 2027—and its cash position (described as more than $450 million in cash, equivalents, and investments). Investing
Mizuho also framed its target using a long-dated valuation lens (including a fiscal 2030 price-to-sales approach), which is typical for early-stage tech where near-term earnings don’t tell the story investors are trading. Investing
Jefferies: Hold, $30 target (with a clear warning label)
Jefferies initiated Rigetti with a Hold rating and a $30 price target, arguing Rigetti can benefit from “early-cycle” quantum tailwinds and praising the potential scalability of Rigetti’s chiplet-based architecture—but cautioning that execution risk and revenue mix risk remain significant. Investing
Jefferies also emphasized two investor pain points that keep showing up in the Rigetti conversation:
- credibility concerns tied to past roadmap delays
- revenue visibility constrained by heavy dependence on government contracts Investing
So… what’s the “consensus”?
Consensus depends on who you ask—because different aggregators use different analyst sets and update schedules.
- TipRanks described Rigetti as a Moderate Buy, citing an average price target around $39.75 (with a mix of Buys and Holds). TipRanks
- StockAnalysis showed an analyst consensus of Buy with an average target near $29.38 at the time of its update. StockAnalysis
The practical takeaway for readers: analysts broadly agree Rigetti has outsized upside if it executes, but they disagree on how to price the execution risk.
The fundamentals check: what Rigetti reported (and why GAAP numbers look wild)
Rigetti’s latest major company update (beyond stock moves) was its third-quarter 2025 report.
Key highlights from the company’s Q3 release:
- Revenue: about $1.9 million for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025
- Operating loss: about $20.5 million
- GAAP net loss: about $201.0 million
- Non-GAAP net loss: about $10.7 million
- Cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments:$558.9 million as of Sept. 30, 2025 GlobeNewswire
Rigetti also reported that after Sept. 30 and through Nov. 6, it received $46.5 million from warrant exercises, and estimated total cash/cash equivalents/investments at approximately $600 million as of Nov. 6, 2025. GlobeNewswire
Why the GAAP loss is so much larger than the non-GAAP loss: the company’s release explains that its non-GAAP metric excludes non-cash items like stock-based compensation and changes in the fair value of certain liabilities, which can swing sharply with the stock price. GlobeNewswire
If you’re trying to understand the business rather than the trading vehicle, that non-GAAP framing is one reason analysts tend to focus on runway, milestones, and bookings more than quarterly EPS.
The roadmap that the stock is trading on: 100+ qubits (soon), then 150+, then 1,000+
Rigetti’s near-term narrative is unusually milestone-driven because the company is still in an early commercialization phase.
From Rigetti’s Q3 update:
- Rigetti said it remains on track to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025. GlobeNewswire
- It expects a 150+ qubit system by or around end of 2026 with 99.7% median two-qubit gate fidelity, and a 1,000+ qubit system by or around end of 2027 with 99.8% median two-qubit gate fidelity. GlobeNewswire
For non-quantum folks: “two-qubit gate fidelity” is a key proxy for error rates. Higher fidelity generally means fewer errors per operation—critical for scaling toward useful computation.
This is why Rigetti stock can feel like it trades on engineering press releases: for companies like this, proof-of-delivery can matter as much as (or more than) quarterly revenue.
Commercial signals: on-prem system orders and deliveries into 2026
One tangible commercial datapoint is Rigetti’s purchase orders for on-premises systems.
Rigetti announced it secured about $5.7 million in purchase orders for two 9-qubit Novera quantum computing systems, described as upgradeable, with delivery expected in the first half of 2026. The buyers were described as an Asian technology manufacturing company and a California-based applied physics and AI startup. GlobeNewswire
In a sector where “commercialization” is often discussed in future tense, actual system orders—especially with delivery timelines—tend to carry weight with analysts.
NVIDIA’s NVQLink: why investors keep bringing it up
Rigetti has also leaned into the hybrid future: quantum processors connected to classical supercomputers (especially GPU-heavy systems used for AI).
NVIDIA introduced NVQLink as an open architecture intended to tightly couple GPU computing with quantum processors to build accelerated quantum supercomputers, explicitly positioning it as a low-latency, high-throughput bridge for the control and error-correction workloads quantum systems require. NVIDIA Newsroom
NVIDIA’s press release listed Rigetti among the quantum hardware partners contributing to NVQLink. NVIDIA Newsroom
Rigetti itself highlighted NVQLink support as a promising resource to accelerate hybrid computation development “as we work towards quantum advantage,” in its Q3 commentary. GlobeNewswire
Investors like this theme because it implicitly argues quantum won’t replace GPUs—it will plug into them.
The risk side: why RGTI can drop as fast as it climbs
Rigetti’s rally-and-pullback pattern isn’t random; it’s baked into the structure of the story.
Revenue is still very small relative to the valuation
A Nasdaq-hosted analysis piece underscored the core issue: Rigetti remains speculative because it generates little revenue, and investors are effectively making a long-duration bet on progress and eventual adoption. Nasdaq
Execution risk is central, not secondary
Jefferies explicitly pointed to execution and credibility concerns (given prior roadmap delays) and to near-term visibility issues due to government-dependent revenue mix. Investing
Holiday liquidity + options flow = extra turbulence
Fast Company flagged uncertainty about how long the holiday rally lasts, with profit-taking already showing up early Tuesday. Fast Company
Nasdaq’s options activity recap showed unusually large volume, which can act like a lever on short-term moves. Nasdaq
Bull case vs. bear case: the story investors are actually trading
The bull case is essentially: quantum becomes a meaningful computing layer, and Rigetti—funded and progressing—earns a seat at the table. Fast Company cited a McKinsey view that surging investment and faster-than-expected innovation could push the quantum market toward $100 billion within a decade. Fast Company
The bear case is: timelines stretch, error rates remain stubborn, and commercialization comes later (or concentrates in giant incumbents). IBD’s sector overview stressed that commercialization uncertainty and adoption hurdles are exactly why the group remains volatile. Investors
Rigetti stock will likely keep oscillating between those poles until milestones (and revenue traction) make one side harder to ignore.
What to watch next for Rigetti stock into 2026
A few catalysts and checkpoints stand out from where things sit on Dec. 23, 2025:
- Year-end 2025 milestone: any confirmation and technical detail around the 100+ qubit chiplet-based system target (and the 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity expectation). GlobeNewswire
- On-prem deliveries: progress toward delivering the two Novera systems expected in the first half of 2026. GlobeNewswire
- Government/defense momentum: any update on programs like DARPA’s QBI (Rigetti said it was not initially selected for Stage B but remained in dialogue and was optimistic about being chosen in coming months). GlobeNewswire
- Analyst and positioning shifts: more initiations/target changes can matter disproportionately in a thinly covered, high-volatility name. Investing
- Sector-wide attention: quantum names are moving together; catalysts affecting peers (events, demos, adoption headlines) can spill into RGTI even without company-specific news. Fast Company
Bottom line: Rigetti stock is acting like a milestone-driven, options-amplified proxy for quantum optimism. The next leg—up or down—will likely depend less on vibes and more on whether Rigetti can keep shipping what it says it will ship, on the timeline it says it will ship it.
