NEW YORK — As of 2:24 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets are open for regular trading, and Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is back in the spotlight after a volatile holiday-week swing.
RGTI stock price today (live session update)
Rigetti shares were $22.55 in the afternoon session, down $1.96 (-8.0%) from the prior close. The stock opened at $24.37, hit an intraday high of $24.51, and traded as low as $22.52. Volume was about 19.1 million shares by the latest update.
The broader tape looks more “mixed-to-flat” than risk-on: SPY was essentially unchanged, QQQ modestly higher, while IWM (small caps) was notably lower—often a sign that traders are trimming exposure to higher-beta names even when megacap tech holds up.
That context matters, because RGTI is the definition of a high-beta stock: big dreams, early revenues, fast repricing.
What’s driving Rigetti stock’s pullback on Dec. 26?
Several narratives are colliding:
1) The “holiday liquidity + retail momentum” effect is real
Benzinga characterized Rigetti’s reversal as a classic holiday-week dynamic: thinner institutional desks and lighter liquidity can let retail flows and sentiment move small-cap, story-driven stocks more aggressively—especially during the “Santa rally” window. [1]
Reuters reported that retail participation has become a major market force in 2025, with retail trading estimated at 20–25% of activity (and peaking higher at times), which helps explain why thematic trades—like quantum computing—can gap and whip around quickly. [2]
2) The sector ran hot earlier in the week… with no single clean catalyst
Rigetti’s move is also tied to a broader quantum “pure-play” rally and subsequent cooling-off. Fast Company noted that several quantum names popped by roughly double digits in holiday-week trading, with the immediate catalyst not always obvious. [3]
Trefis argued that Rigetti’s big jump earlier in the week looked more like a sector-wide speculative chase than a company-specific fundamental shift, pointing to elevated volume and the potential for short-covering dynamics in a momentum squeeze. [4]
3) Wall Street coverage is expanding, but opinions vary
One reason quantum stocks have stayed “loud” into year-end: big firms initiated coverage across the space in 2025, with mixed ratings and big differences in price targets—fuel for both bulls and bears. [5]
The bull case: why some analysts and investors stay constructive on RGTI
Rigetti’s appeal is basically the sci-fi promise of scalable quantum computing—packaged into a public small cap where sentiment can revalue the future in an afternoon.
Here’s what bullish coverage tends to emphasize:
A) A clearly stated technology roadmap (with specific fidelity targets)
In its Q3 2025 update, Rigetti said it remained on track for a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with ~99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025, followed by 150+ qubits (~99.7%) by end of 2026 and 1,000+ qubits (~99.8%) by end of 2027. [6]
Earlier in 2025, Rigetti also announced it hit 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on a modular 36-qubit multi-chip system (four 9-qubit “chiplets”), positioning that architecture as a path toward scaling. [7]
B) Cash runway and funding flexibility
Rigetti reported $558.9M in cash/cash equivalents/investments as of Sept. 30, 2025, and said it ended up around $600M by Nov. 6, 2025 after warrant exercises. [8]
On the Street, Mizuho’s initiation argued the company’s liquidity could potentially carry it beyond 2030 (their framing), which helps explain the willingness of some analysts to value the story out to the end of the decade. [9]
C) Partnerships and “ecosystem credibility” (NVIDIA mention included)
Rigetti also positioned itself as part of the hybrid quantum-classical future. In October, the company said it was supporting NVIDIA NVQLink, framing it as a platform to accelerate hybrid computation development. NVIDIA’s quantum GM Tim Costa described NVQLink as connecting quantum processors/control systems with NVIDIA AI supercomputing to integrate and scale quantum hardware. [10]
D) Early commercial signals (still small, but real)
Rigetti disclosed purchase orders totaling ~$5.7M for two 9-qubit Novera on-prem systems, with delivery expected in the first half of 2026. [11]
Barron’s previously highlighted those orders as an important “step beyond pure R&D,” noting they helped spark enthusiasm across quantum peers at the time. [12]
The bear case: why “reality checks” keep showing up
Quantum computing may be transformative—but timelines are where investors get mugged in a dark alley by math.
1) Revenue is still tiny relative to valuation narratives
Rigetti’s Q3 2025 revenue was $1.9M with an operating loss of $20.5M (and a much larger GAAP net loss figure that the company also broke out against non-GAAP). [13]
That mismatch between today’s revenue base and tomorrow’s expectations is precisely why the stock can swing violently when the market mood shifts from “future!” to “show me.”
2) Contract mix and margin pressures can be ugly in the early innings
Investopedia reported earlier in 2025 that Rigetti’s revenue declined sharply year-over-year in one quarter, and quoted CFO Jeffrey Bertelsen attributing margin pressure in part to ongoing revenue from a UK NQCC contract for a 24-qubit system with a lower-margin profile. [14]
3) Dilution risk: the company has raised equity before (and can again)
From an SEC filing tied to Q2 2025 results, Rigetti disclosed it completed $350M in gross proceeds through an at-the-market equity program, and reported ~323.8M shares issued and outstanding as of June 30, 2025 (up from ~283.5M at Dec. 31, 2024). [15]
For investors, that’s not a moral failing—it’s the standard survival tactic for capital-intensive frontier tech. But it does mean: future dilution is always part of the probability cloud.
4) Analysts themselves flag execution + funding dependencies
- Jefferies initiated Rigetti at Hold with a $30 target, warning that near-term visibility is limited and highlighting execution and revenue-mix risks (including government dependence). [16]
- Barron’s reported that B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis downgraded Rigetti (Buy → Neutral) while raising the target price, citing near-term risks like potential delays in U.S. government funding and a desire for more transparency on tech progress/partnerships. [17]
In other words: even the optimists often want receipts.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: what the Street is saying now
Because quantum stocks are still in a “valuation-by-narrative” era, you’ll see a wide spread depending on the model, timeframe, and who’s included in the dataset.
Here are the most current, clearly sourced targets and consensus snapshots:
- Mizuho initiated coverage with Outperform and a $50 price target (reported by Barron’s and also via TipRanks/The Fly). [18]
- Wedbush initiated coverage with Outperform and a $35 price target. [19]
- Jefferies initiated with Hold and a $30 price target. [20]
Consensus aggregators (handy, but methodology differs):
- MarketScreener shows mean “BUY”, average target ~$38.24, with high $51 and low ~$24.36 (based on its analyst set at the time). [21]
- MarketBeat shows “Moderate Buy” and an average target around $31.22 (high $50, low $15). [22]
- Nasdaq (via a Fintel-based summary) cited an average target around $37.91 with a range roughly $20.20–$53.55 as of early December. [23]
How to read this like a grown-up: the range tells you more than the average. A wide spread usually means (1) limited fundamental anchoring, (2) high uncertainty around commercialization timing, and (3) sentiment risk.
Why quantum stocks can whip around so much: a quick reality map
Investor’s Business Daily described 2025 as the year Wall Street “discovered” quantum pure plays, with multiple firms initiating coverage—but emphasized the sector remains volatile due to adoption hurdles, competition, and execution risk. [24]
Barron’s coverage of Mizuho’s initiations framed the opportunity as long-term: big potential use cases (drug discovery, financial modeling) and a market that could scale dramatically over the next decade—paired with near-term revenue volatility while the industry stays in R&D mode. [25]
Translation: the market is trying to price a technology curve. The curve refuses to sit still for portraits.
Key dates and catalysts investors are watching next
Next earnings
Multiple earnings calendars point to early March 2026 for the next report, with Zacks listing March 4, 2026. [26]
Roadmap “end-of-year” pressure
Rigetti has guided to delivering its 100+ qubit chiplet-based system by end of 2025 (with targeted fidelity metrics). With the calendar nearly done, any incremental updates—press releases, demos, partner notes—can matter disproportionately for sentiment. [27]
Liquidity and volatility indicators
If you’re trying to understand why price action can go from “moon mission” to “trap door” quickly, it helps to remember:
- Retail participation is structurally larger than it used to be. [28]
- Holiday-week liquidity can amplify moves. [29]
- Sector moves can happen without a clean single-stock catalyst. [30]
What to watch into today’s close and heading into the next session
Because it’s Friday afternoon and holiday-week liquidity can stay thin, here are the practical, non-fortune-teller things market participants typically monitor in a name like RGTI:
- End-of-day positioning: High-beta retail favorites often see sharper last-hour moves as traders de-risk (or press momentum) into the close. [31]
- After-hours headline risk: With quantum names, even a single analyst note, contract headline, or roadmap update can move the stock disproportionately relative to its revenue base. [32]
- Any new filing / financing chatter: Rigetti has raised equity capital before, and investors tend to reprice quickly if they think dilution odds are rising. [33]
- Peer sympathy moves: RGTI often trades as part of a quantum basket, so big moves in IonQ, D-Wave, or broader “spec tech” sentiment can spill over. [34]
Bottom line
Rigetti’s drop today looks less like a single-company bombshell and more like a post-rally cooldown in a thin, retail-influenced holiday market, with quantum stocks behaving exactly like the volatile, long-duration bets they are. [35]
The bull thesis centers on roadmap execution, cash runway, and ecosystem positioning (including hybrid integration narratives). [36]
The bear thesis is that fundamentals (revenue scale, contract mix, and dilution risk) still have to catch up to the valuation story. [37]
References
1. www.benzinga.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.fastcompany.com, 4. www.trefis.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.globenewswire.com, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.barrons.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.investors.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.zacks.com, 27. www.globenewswire.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.benzinga.com, 30. www.fastcompany.com, 31. www.benzinga.com, 32. www.barrons.com, 33. www.sec.gov, 34. www.fastcompany.com, 35. www.benzinga.com, 36. www.globenewswire.com, 37. www.globenewswire.com
