Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) is ending the year the way quantum stocks often do: with big ideas, big volatility, and Wall Street trying to put numbers on a future that still feels a little sci‑fi.
As of Dec. 24, 2025, RGTI traded around $24.42 (mid-session), down about 2.8% on the day after a turbulent stretch of sharp gains and pullbacks.
Below is what today’s news flow, forecasts, and recent analyst research collectively say about Rigetti stock—and what investors are watching next.
Rigetti stock price today: what the market is signaling
On Dec. 24, RGTI traded in a roughly $24.28–$25.46 range, reflecting continued churn after large volume spikes earlier in the week. [1]
Those prior sessions matter because they frame the current mood:
- RGTI closed Dec. 22 at $26.88 after a strong jump, then
- fell to $25.11 on Dec. 23 amid heavy volume and a fast sentiment shift. [2]
That’s classic “high-duration tech” behavior: when the market turns risk-on, quantum names can rip; when risk-off hits, they can retrace in a hurry.
The big Dec. 24 headline: analysts still lean bullish—“Moderate Buy” consensus
One of the most visible “day-of” items for RGTI is that major tracking services continue to show a consensus tilt toward Buy ratings, even after the stock’s volatility.
A MarketBeat roundup published Dec. 24 describes Rigetti as carrying an average “Moderate Buy” view, citing multiple recent reports and initiations across the Street. [3]
Recent notable calls referenced in current coverage include:
- Wedbush initiating coverage with Outperform and a $35 price objective (coverage cited as starting Dec. 17). [4]
- Mizuho initiating with Outperform and a $50 price target (coverage cited as starting Dec. 11). [5]
- Jefferies initiating with a Hold rating and a $30 target (coverage cited as starting Dec. 16). [6]
- Benchmark cutting its target from $50 to $40 while maintaining a Buy rating (cited in recent summaries). [7]
Not everyone is cheering from the rooftops: at least one prominent ratings service has been cited as reiterating a “sell” grade in recent notes. [8]
Forecasts and price targets: why the “consensus” depends on where you look
If you’ve ever wondered why investors can quote wildly different “consensus price targets” for the same stock… welcome to the party.
As of Dec. 24, different forecast aggregators show different averages because they pull from different analyst sets and time windows:
- TipRanks: average price target $39.75 (high $51, low $30) and a Moderate Buy consensus based on the ratings it tracks. [9]
- MarketBeat: consensus target around $31.22 (and it also lists a broader target range in its forecast tools). [10]
- StockAnalysis: average target around $29.38, with a wide low-to-high spread. [11]
- ValueInvesting.io: average forecast $35.40 (with a range shown from about $20.20 to $53.55), and a stated “Buy” consensus from its tracked set. [12]
- MarketScreener: shows a higher average target and a “Buy” consensus based on its tracked analysts. [13]
The important takeaway isn’t the exact number—it’s the shape of the distribution:
- The Street’s central tendency is above the current trading range (bullish skew).
- The range is extremely wide, implying unusually high uncertainty about execution and timelines.
Quantum investing is basically “discounted cash flow, but the cash flows are shy and don’t like to come out of their burrow.”
What’s driving the coverage wave: quantum stocks pulled back, then analysts stepped in
A key theme in December coverage has been a pullback in quantum computing stocks—and then a burst of new or expanded analyst attention.
Investopedia reported that Wedbush initiated coverage across several U.S.-listed “pure-play” quantum names (including Rigetti) with Outperform ratings, while also acknowledging near-term pressure tied to broader tech sentiment and “AI bubble” worries. [14]
That matters for RGTI because it’s increasingly being valued like a platform option on hybrid quantum-classical computing, rather than a company priced on near-term revenue.
Rigetti’s fundamentals: small revenue today, heavy investment, and big non-cash swings
Rigetti’s most recent quarterly reporting (for Q3 2025, ended Sept. 30, 2025) helps explain why investors can argue both “this is the future” and “this is expensive” with straight faces.
From the company’s Q3 reporting:
- Revenue: about $1.947 million for the quarter [15]
- Operating loss: about $20.549 million [16]
- GAAP net loss: about $200.968 million (a figure heavily influenced by fair-value accounting impacts tied to warrants and other items) [17]
Third-party earnings coverage also emphasized the same pattern: EPS beat expectations, revenue missed, and the company remains in a “build phase.”
For example, a Nasdaq/Zacks write-up noted Rigetti posted an adjusted loss of $0.03 per share versus a larger expected loss, while revenue of about $1.95 million came in below consensus estimates. [18]
Cash runway: Rigetti’s balance sheet is a core part of the bull case
In quantum computing, cash is strategy.
Rigetti reported that as of Sept. 30, 2025, it held:
- $26.133 million in cash and cash equivalents
- $420.850 million in short-term available-for-sale investments
- $111.955 million in long-term available-for-sale investments [19]
That totals roughly $558.9 million in cash/cash equivalents/investments—an unusually large liquidity cushion for a company still generating single-digit millions in quarterly revenue. [20]
Rigetti also disclosed additional cash inflow from warrant exercises after quarter-end, with proceeds cited as $46.5 million through early November and total liquidity cited at approximately $600 million as of Nov. 6, 2025. [21]
For investors, that runway reduces “immediate dilution panic,” but it doesn’t eliminate dilution risk long-term—especially if commercialization takes longer than hoped.
The catalysts investors are watching: orders, government funding, and the qubit roadmap
Rigetti’s recent narrative has shifted from “pure R&D” toward “early commercial signals + roadmap credibility.”
1) On-prem system orders: $5.7 million with delivery expected in 1H 2026
Rigetti announced purchase orders totaling approximately $5.7 million for two 9-qubit Novera™ systems, with delivery expected in the first half of 2026. [22]
The customers weren’t named in full, but the company described one as an Asian technology manufacturer and the other as a California-based applied physics and AI startup, each using the systems for internal capability-building and research. [23]
Investors like this because it’s tangible: hardware orders with scheduled delivery windows—still modest, but more “real economy” than “powerpoint economy.”
2) Air Force Research Laboratory contract: $5.8 million over three years
Rigetti also announced a three-year, $5.8 million AFRL contract to advance superconducting quantum networking, in collaboration with Dutch startup QphoX. [24]
Government funding is a double-edged sword (non-dilutive support, but timing and continuity risk), yet it’s undeniably a legitimizer in a field where “proof” often arrives as grants and multi-year programs.
3) The technology roadmap: 100+ qubits by end of 2025, scaling through 2027
In its Q3 communications, Rigetti reiterated roadmap targets that include:
- 100+ qubit chiplet-based system targeted by end of 2025, with a stated goal of 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity
- 150+ qubit system by end of 2026 (goal of 99.7%)
- 1,000+ qubit system by end of 2027 (goal of 99.8%) [25]
This is the heart of the equity story: higher qubit counts are exciting, but fidelity (error rate performance) is what determines whether more qubits equals more capability or just more chaos.
NVIDIA NVQLink: why investors keep circling back to “hybrid quantum + GPUs”
Another theme that keeps popping up in 2025 quantum coverage is hybrid quantum-classical integration, often framed as “quantum will ride alongside GPUs, not replace them.”
Rigetti announced it is supporting NVIDIA NVQLink, NVIDIA’s open platform aimed at integrating AI supercomputing with quantum computers—and highlighted demonstrations around NVIDIA’s GTC Washington, D.C. event. [26]
NVIDIA, for its part, positioned NVQLink as an open architecture to tightly couple GPU computing with quantum processors for “accelerated quantum supercomputers,” emphasizing its relevance to control algorithms and quantum error correction workflows. [27]
For RGTI stock, the practical implication is simple: if the market decides quantum’s near-term path runs through GPU-centric hybrid systems, then being in that ecosystem conversation is strategically valuable.
Quanta collaboration: supply chain and scale, plus a capital linkage
Rigetti’s strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer remains another notable pillar for “industrialization” narratives.
An SEC-filed 8-K describing the agreement includes:
- The framework for Quanta to develop and supply non-QPU components (control systems, dilution refrigerators, cabling, etc.)
- An expectation of significant investment commitments in quantum computing over a multi-year period
- A private placement structure describing Quanta’s purchase of Rigetti shares (~$35 million) subject to regulatory conditions. [28]
Even if the average retail investor never thinks about dilution refrigerators again (lucky them), this kind of partnership can matter if Rigetti needs to move from “lab builds” to repeatable systems.
DARPA QBI update: a reality check hiding inside the roadmap story
Rigetti also disclosed an update regarding its participation in DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI).
In its Q3 materials, Rigetti said it remained engaged with DARPA on Stage A, but was not initially selected for Stage B when DARPA announced initial Stage B selections in early November—while adding that dialogue is ongoing and the company is optimistic about future selection. [29]
This is exactly the kind of nuance that moves quantum stocks: the technology is early enough that program status can be as market-relevant as revenue.
The bull case vs. the bear case: why RGTI still splits the room
The bull case (what optimists emphasize)
- Multiple recent initiations and targets above the current price, including high-end targets in the $40–$50 range from some firms. [30]
- A large liquidity cushion (hundreds of millions) supporting a longer runway. [31]
- Early commercial traction via system orders and government contracts. [32]
- Participation in the “hybrid quantum + GPU” integration narrative via NVQLink. [33]
The bear case (what skeptics emphasize)
- Revenue remains very small relative to valuation, with profitability likely years away. [34]
- Operating costs are rising: one recent Nasdaq commentary highlighted operating expenses rising into the ~$21M range in Q3 and argued the stock’s valuation implies extreme expectations. [35]
- Near-term stock performance can be dominated by risk sentiment rather than fundamentals—meaning drawdowns can happen fast. [36]
- Some analysts have explicitly flagged near-term risks even while remaining positive long-term (including concerns tied to funding timing and execution). [37]
What to watch next for Rigetti stock heading into 2026
As 2025 closes, Rigetti’s stock is increasingly driven by a checklist of milestones rather than classic quarterly beats.
Key watch items include:
- Delivery progress on the two Novera system orders expected in 1H 2026 [38]
- Updates on the 100+ qubit system timeline and fidelity targets [39]
- Any additional U.S. government contract wins—or delays—in quantum networking and benchmarking programs [40]
- Additional “ecosystem” signals (NVQLink integrations, collaborations, and enterprise pilots) [41]
- Changes in analyst targets and rating distributions, which are still evolving rapidly as coverage expands [42]
Rigetti is, in short, a stock where the narrative can change on a single press release—and where the fundamentals are still under construction. That can be thrilling, dangerous, or both, depending on your risk tolerance.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. valueinvesting.io, 13. www.marketscreener.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.stocktitan.net, 16. www.stocktitan.net, 17. www.stocktitan.net, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.stocktitan.net, 21. www.stocktitan.net, 22. www.globenewswire.com, 23. www.globenewswire.com, 24. www.globenewswire.com, 25. www.stocktitan.net, 26. www.globenewswire.com, 27. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.stocktitan.net, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.sec.gov, 32. www.globenewswire.com, 33. www.globenewswire.com, 34. www.stocktitan.net, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. stockanalysis.com, 37. www.barrons.com, 38. www.globenewswire.com, 39. www.stocktitan.net, 40. www.globenewswire.com, 41. www.globenewswire.com, 42. www.tipranks.com
