Rigetti Computing Stock (RGTI) News & Forecast for December 15, 2025: Analyst Targets, Insider Sales, and What to Watch Next

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ: RGTI) has become one of the most watched—and most debated—quantum computing stocks on the market. On Monday, December 15, 2025, RGTI swung sharply and finished the session down about 7%, closing near $23.95 after trading roughly between $23.72 and $26.09. ^[1]

That kind of move is not an outlier for Rigetti. It’s the point. In 2025, quantum “pure plays” have repeatedly ricocheted between excitement (“this is the next computing revolution”) and sobering reality (“revenue is tiny, timelines are long, valuations are wild”). In the middle of that tug-of-war sits Rigetti—one of the best-known U.S. publicly traded companies building superconducting quantum computers and selling both cloud access and on-premises systems.

Below is what’s driving Rigetti stock right now, what analysts are forecasting as of mid-December 2025, and what investors are watching heading into 2026.

RGTI stock today: volatility is the feature, not the bug

Rigetti’s December 15 drop came after a choppy stretch for the stock in early-to-mid December. Recent daily volume has stayed elevated—another sign that RGTI is trading like a high-attention momentum name as much as a fundamentals story. ^[2]

That behavior matches what Reuters described earlier in the rally: investors have struggled to value quantum pure plays, and prices have become highly volatile as the market tries to “price a piece of the future.” Reuters noted that Rigetti had surged from around $1.06 earlier in the year to a recent high near $58, illustrating just how extreme the swings have been. ^[3]

The big December catalyst: Mizuho enters with a bold “next Nvidia” narrative

A major “fresh” storyline in Rigetti’s December coverage is Mizuho initiating coverage of Rigetti (along with IonQ and D-Wave) and explicitly framing quantum as a potential “next Nvidia”-style platform shift—while warning investors must be patient.

Multiple outlets summarized the core call:

Outperform rating on Rigetti
$50 price target for RGTI
Quantum market forecast rising to roughly $205 billion by the mid-2030s (figures vary slightly by outlet) ^[4]

MarketBeat’s recap of the initiation highlights how far apart the bullish case and today’s price remain: a $50 target implies massive upside from the mid-$20s area—and it also notes that the broader analyst picture is positive-but-mixed, with an average target closer to the high $20s. ^[5]

What that means in plain English:
Mizuho’s call matters less because it is “right” (nobody can prove that in a young industry) and more because it gives institutional investors a clean, simple narrative—quantum as a compute revolution—and a set of price anchors that traders can rally around.

The counterweight: “Great story, but where’s the revenue?”

The most pointed pushback in recent RGTI commentary has been simple: Rigetti is still early-stage, and commercial scale is not here yet.

A widely circulated December 13 analysis argued investors should be cautious because:

Rigetti’s 2024 revenue was about $10.8 million, while 2025 year-to-date revenue was about $5.2 million at the time of writing.
The company’s announced $5.7 million in on-premises system orders are expected to be delivered (and recognized) in the first half of 2026, not immediately. ^[6]

This is the central tension in RGTI stock:
The roadmap is ambitious and exciting. The income statement is still tiny.

Rigetti’s latest earnings snapshot: Q3 2025 results and a cash-heavy balance sheet

Rigetti’s most recent quarterly report (Q3 2025, reported November 10) shows a company still spending heavily on R&D, but also holding substantial liquidity:

Q3 2025 revenue:$1.9 million
Operating loss:$20.5 million
GAAP net loss:$201.0 million (driven largely by non-cash fair-value changes)
Non-GAAP net loss:$10.7 million
Cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments:$558.9 million as of Sept. 30, 2025
Additional warrant exercise proceeds of $46.5 million received after quarter-end (through Nov. 6), bringing liquidity to roughly $600 million at that point ^[7]

That last figure—cash and investments—plays a huge role in the bull case. Quantum timelines can be long, and Rigetti’s balance sheet (at least as of the last report) suggests it has runway to keep building.

But the same report also reminds investors that reported GAAP results can swing dramatically due to warrant and valuation accounting—noise that can confuse casual readers but still spook markets when headlines hit. ^[8]

Product and partnership catalysts investors are pricing in

Rigetti’s December stock debate is not just about “quantum, someday.” There are specific milestones and commercial events investors are tracking.

1) $5.7M in Novera system purchase orders, delivery expected in H1 2026

Rigetti disclosed purchase orders totaling approximately $5.7 million for two 9-qubit Novera systems, with delivery expected in the first half of 2026. The company described one buyer as an Asian technology manufacturer and the other as a California applied physics / AI startup. ^[9]

2) U.S. Air Force contract for quantum networking (a real-world “systems” bet)

Rigetti also highlighted a three-year, $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), in collaboration with Dutch startup QphoX, aimed at advancing superconducting quantum networking—specifically the challenge of converting signals to enable network links. ^[10]

3) NVIDIA NVQLink support (quantum + AI supercomputing integration)

In late October, Rigetti announced support for NVIDIA NVQLink, NVIDIA’s open platform for integrating AI supercomputing with quantum computers, positioning Rigetti for hybrid quantum-classical workflows—widely viewed as the practical near-term path toward useful quantum applications. ^[11]

4) A clearly stated technology roadmap through 2027

Rigetti’s roadmap language in the Q3 update is unusually specific for a frontier tech firm:

100+ qubit chiplet-based system targeted by end of 2025, with ~99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity
150+ qubit system by end of 2026, targeting ~99.7%
1,000+ qubit system by end of 2027, targeting ~99.8% ^[12]

Those are forward-looking targets, not guarantees—but investors price stories, and this is the company’s story in numbers.

Forecasts and price targets: big spread, because uncertainty is the product

As of mid-December 2025, consensus-style aggregator data shows a wide forecast range for RGTI:

MarketBeat: average price target around $28.50, with a high of $50 and low of $12 (and a “Moderate Buy” consensus) ^[13]
StockAnalysis: average price target around $28.33, with $50 high / $12 low, and a “Strong Buy” consensus in its dataset ^[14]

Using RGTI’s ~$23.95 close on Dec. 15 as a reference point, those averages imply roughly 18–19% upside, while the $50 “blue-sky” target implies about 109% upside—if everything goes right and the market stays enthusiastic. ^[15]

The spread itself is the message: analysts aren’t disagreeing over a quarter point of margin. They’re disagreeing over how quickly (or whether) quantum becomes a scalable commercial platform—and how much of that platform Rigetti can own.

Trading reality check: short interest, options heat, and insider sales

A stock can be “about the future” and still move day-to-day on very human market mechanics: positioning, hedging, short covering, and sentiment.

Short interest remains elevated

As of the Nov. 28, 2025 settlement data, MarketBeat reported ~43.49 million shares sold short, about 13.18% of the public float, with a ~1.1 days-to-cover ratio. ^[16]

That’s the kind of setup that can amplify rallies (short squeeze dynamics) and also intensify selloffs if momentum breaks.

Options pricing signals “this thing can move”

Options data providers have shown high implied volatility for RGTI options around mid-December—consistent with the stock’s big daily ranges. ^[17]

Insider transactions are also in focus

Insider selling doesn’t automatically mean “bad news,” but it gets attention in a speculative stock.

A Reuters-sourced filing report noted that Director Clifton Michael S. sold 150,000 shares at about $27.34 on Dec. 9, 2025, under a prearranged 10b5-1 plan (a structured trading plan). ^[18]

The valuation debate: “science fiction” pricing vs. business math

Rigetti’s valuation is the most controversial part of the story, and it’s where the tone of coverage diverges sharply.

Reuters captured the core issue earlier in November: at points in the rally, Rigetti traded at more than 1,000 times sales, a comparison that highlights how much future success is already priced in. ^[19]

Commentary outlets have been even more blunt. A recent Nasdaq/Motley Fool piece argued that Rigetti’s price-to-sales ratio exceeds 1,000, calling it “astronomically high” versus typical tech-sector multiples. ^[20]

This doesn’t “prove” the stock must fall. It does mean the stock’s future returns are likely to be dominated by two questions:

Can Rigetti turn roadmap milestones into sustained, growing revenue?
Can the market stay willing to pay extreme multiples while waiting?

What to watch next for Rigetti stock in 2026

If you strip away the hype and the panic, the next phase for RGTI will likely hinge on a short list of measurable signals:

Execution and delivery

Delivery and revenue recognition of the two Novera systems expected in H1 2026 ^[21]

Technical progress

Evidence that the 100+ qubit chiplet-based system and targeted fidelity metrics are being hit (or missed) on schedule ^[22]

Government + ecosystem traction

Updates on AFRL work and any additional federal contracts
Any progress on DARPA-related initiatives referenced in the Q3 update ^[23]

Capital strategy

Whether the company relies on additional dilution, partnerships, or other financing as it scales

Bottom line: RGTI is a quantum computing bet—and a market psychology bet

On December 15, 2025, Rigetti sits at a familiar crossroads for frontier tech stocks:

Bulls see a well-capitalized company with a credible roadmap, growing ecosystem partnerships (including NVIDIA integration), and early commercial demand for on-prem systems. ^[24]
Bears see a business with very small current revenue, a long road to profitability, and a valuation that assumes a big chunk of the quantum future arrives on time and lands in Rigetti’s lap. ^[25]

Neither side is “obviously correct” because the underlying industry is still being invented in real time. What is clear is that RGTI stock is priced to be a headline machine—and it will likely remain one until revenue catches up to the narrative.