Key Facts: Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has been on a historic tear in 2025, rising roughly 50× from penny-stock levels to intraday highs near $56 ts2.tech. By Oct. 30, 2025 it closed around $42.52 (up 7.9% on the day) Stockanalysis. Its YTD gain (~2,800–5,000%) far eclipses peers like IonQ (+270%) or D-Wave (up thousands of %) ts2.tech. Recent catalysts include major deals and tech wins: in late Sept 2025 Rigetti (with Dutch partner QphoX) won a $5.8 M U.S. Air Force quantum-networking contract and concurrently booked ~$5.7 M in orders for two new 9-qubit Novera™ systems ts2.tech Rigetti. In late Oct, Rigetti announced support for NVIDIA’s NVQLink platform – NVIDIA’s initiative to integrate AI supercomputing with quantum hardware Globenewswire. (It will demo a Rigetti system at NVIDIA’s GTC DC event.) The company will report Q3 2025 results on Nov. 10 Globenewswire. Analyst sentiment is mixed: nearly all analysts rate RGTI a “Buy,” but 12-month price targets average in the $20–30 range ts2.tech Stockanalysis (well below the current price). Experts note valuation is extreme – Rigetti’s market cap (~$15–18 B) is enormous compared to revenues (~$8–10 M/year) ts2.tech, implying a sales multiple on the order of 1,500×. In short, this rally is fueled by optimism about Rigetti’s technology and contracts, but many warn it may be unsustainable without a big leap in fundamentals.
Stock Price & Performance (Oct 2025)
Rigetti stock hit all-time highs in mid-October and then slipped. On Oct. 30, 2025 RGTI closed at $42.52, up +3.11 (+7.89%) from the Oct. 29 close of $39.41 Stockanalysis Stockanalysis. In early trading Oct. 31, 2025 it was near $42.3 (down ~0.5% pre-market) Stockanalysis. For context, RGTI traded under $1 at the start of 2025; it briefly peaked around $56.34 on Oct. 15 ts2.tech (a 50× gain for the year) and has since pulled back about 25% off that high. In fact, after climbing to $56, the stock fell to the mid-$40s by Oct. 20 ts2.tech. This volatility underscores a classic “parabolic” move: an extraordinary boom up, followed by profit-taking. The trading range is now roughly $38–56 (52-week range ~[$1, $58]) ts2.tech. RGTI’s 50-day moving average is about $39.5 and its 200-day MA ~$40.1 Investing Investing – both currently below the price – so many technical indicators still register bullish (see below).
Recent News & Developments
Quantum Hardware Deals: On Sept. 30, 2025 Rigetti announced purchase orders totaling ~$5.7 M for two 9‑qubit on-premise Novera systems (deliveries in H1 2026) Rigetti. This marked the first significant hardware sales for Rigetti and sparked a rally: Barron’s reported the stock “extended its rally…climbing to a record intraday high” after the news Rigetti. Around the same time, Rigetti (with QphoX) won a three-year, $5.8 M Air Force contract to advance superconducting quantum networking Rigetti. Together, these deals “stoked investor enthusiasm” by showing Rigetti is finally turning lab R&D into customers ts2.tech ts2.tech.
Tech Milestones: In October 2025 Rigetti also launched Cepheus, a new 36‑qubit multi-chip processor on its cloud platform (announced mid-year) ts2.tech. And on Oct. 28, Rigetti announced it’s supporting NVIDIA’s NVQLink architecture – a bridge between AI supercomputers and quantum processors Globenewswire. NVIDIA’s Tim Costa touted the collaboration: “NVIDIA and Rigetti are working together to provide low-latency, high-throughput connectivity between CPUs, GPUs and QPUs” Globenewswire. These moves align with industry belief that “utility-scale quantum computing” will require tight integration of classical and quantum systems Globenewswire.
Financial News: Rigetti has a second-quarter 2025 report out (Aug. 12) showing adjusted loss per share $0.05 on $1.80 M revenue Marketbeat. It has no debt and raised fresh capital: in June it completed a $350 M equity offering, boosting cash to ~$575 M Thequantuminsider. (No near-term break-even is in sight, however.) The company is slated to report Q3 results on Nov. 10, 2025 Globenewswire. Executive lineup is steady for now, with founder Chad Rigetti as CEO; note that industry veteran Subodh Kulkarni became President/COO in early 2023.
Analyst Forecasts & Valuation
Wall Street analysts are cautiously optimistic but divided on near-term price targets. MarketBeat notes 6 “Buy” ratings vs 1 “Sell”, with an average target around $28.29 Marketbeat (a “Moderate Buy” consensus). StockAnalysis.com reports a consensus target of $26 Stockanalysis. (Individual targets range from low teens up to $50: e.g. Benchmark analyst David Williams just raised his target from $20 to $50 Marketbeat.) Even so, the consensus implies a steep drop from current levels.
Valuation metrics are extreme. Rigetti’s market capitalization (~$13–18 billion) dwarfs its tiny revenues (under $10 M/yr) ts2.tech. That works out to a >1,000× price/sales multiple (one analysis cites ~1,500×) ts2.tech. Reported Q2 net margin was -2135% Marketbeat. In other words, expect losses and dilution: analysts project 2025 EPS around -0.22 Stockanalysis (versus -0.05 in Q2) and the firm still needs sales growth.
In short, most analysts rate RGTI a “Buy” given its long-term prospects, but their 12-month targets generally lie in the low-to-mid $20s ts2.tech Stockanalysis (about 50–60% below today’s price). Seeking Alpha observers have bluntly called it “massively overvalued” with “no near-term path to profitability” ts2.tech. Even bullish analysts concede the rally is parabolic and potentially unsustainable without concrete progress ts2.tech.
Technical Analysis
From a chart perspective, RGTI’s rally has been epic. 2025 saw it climb from sub-$1 to the $50s in months ts2.tech. After the mid-Oct peak, shares “slipped back to the mid-$40s” by Oct. 21 ts2.tech. Indicators suggest the stock is still in an uptrend but showing signs of topping out. Investing.com’s technical summary (as of Oct 31) rates RGTI “Strong Buy” overall (11 of 12 moving averages are bullish) Investing Investing. Its 14-day RSI is ~63 (in neutral-to-bullish range) Investing. The 50-day MA (~$39.5) and 200-day MA (~$40.1) both lie below the current price Investing Investing, which is traditionally a bullish alignment. That said, short-term signals have cooled: on a daily basis the buy/sell signal is only “Neutral” due to mixed momentum indicators Investing. In practice, traders have been taking profits – e.g. RGTI has now fallen about 25% from its Oct 15 high as of late Oct ts2.tech.
Volume has been huge: Oct. 30 saw 64M shares trade (but down 14% from prior-day volume) Marketbeat Stockanalysis. The stock’s beta is high (≈1.6), so it amplifies market moves. In summary, the chart has looked “overbought” by many measures, so technical analysts warn the recent pullback might continue unless new news revives momentum.
Fundamental Overview
Rigetti remains in heavy R&D mode. Its core product line is superconducting quantum processors (24–84 qubits) for cloud and on-prem use. To date, revenue comes mostly from service contracts and a handful of device sales. Q2 results showed only $1.80 M revenue with an ($0.05) per-share loss Marketbeat. Cash on hand is ample (thanks to the $350 M ATM offering) Thequantuminsider, but there’s no stable profit stream yet. The firm’s $575M cash and no debt Thequantuminsider give it a runway, but also raise the bar to deliver results.
Key ratios are astronomic: based on current shares and stock price, MarketBeat notes a market cap ~$13.8 B with P/E ~ -55.95 (negative) Marketbeat. Its recent return on equity was –29.05% Marketbeat. Analysts project a modest increase in revenue to ~$8–10 M this year (dropping from prior year) Stockanalysis, so revenue growth will have to accelerate sharply. The consensus is that fundamentals lag the stock by a mile – hence the warnings that “valuations are ahead of themselves” ts2.tech.
Sector & Competitor Context
Rigetti is one of a few pure-play public “quantum computing” stocks (the so-called “Quantum Four” of Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave and Quantum Computing Inc.). All have seen enormous moves in 2025. Rigetti’s ~+2800–5000% jump dwarfs its peers: IonQ is up a few hundred percent year-to-date, D-Wave by low thousands ts2.tech ts2.tech. None of the tech giants (IBM, Google, Microsoft) have had comparable share price spikes, but they are all in the race. For example, Microsoft has invested in its Azure Quantum platform and IBM continues releasing larger superconducting chips. Many investors see Rigetti and peers as proxies for the “quantum computing revolution,” even though much of the value will take years to prove out.
Quantum computing has also attracted high-level government interest in 2025. Notably, an Oct. 22 WSJ report (picked up by Reuters) said the U.S. Commerce Dept. was in talks to invest (e.g. ~$10 M stakes) in quantum startups including Rigetti Reuters. Shares of Rigetti and other quantum firms jumped on that rumor Reuters, though a Commerce official quickly denied active negotiations Reuters Reuters. Nevertheless, the episode underlines the strategic buzz: “quantum computing offers the chance to really revolutionize the U.S. economy,” as IG Markets analyst Chris Beauchamp put it Reuters. In short, RGTI is trading in an environment of high sector enthusiasm (and volatility) driven by both technology breakthroughs and macroeconomic policies (e.g. Trump admin’s push to secure quantum supply chains).
Expert Analysis & Quotes
Analysts and commentators are both intrigued and cautious. For example, CNBC’s Jim Cramer recently said “quantum computing is for real” and that Rigetti “could have something that’s a home run,” but he also bluntly called the current stock price “pure speculation” ts2.tech. One veteran fund manager noted that “valuations are ahead of themselves, but that’s part of investing in the future… the signs of commercial traction are definitely worth monitoring” ts2.tech. On the bearish side, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore warned Rigetti’s stock “could tumble by up to ~60%” if the frothy sentiment sours ts2.tech. Seeking Alpha observers label RGTI “massively overvalued” given its huge $17–18 B market cap and lack of profits ts2.tech.
Most analysts remain long-term bullish on the technology. StockAnalysis.com summarizes a “Strong Buy” consensus among 5 covering analysts Stockanalysis. Benchmark’s David Williams (of Benchmark Company) recently reiterated a strong-buy rating and raised his 1-year target to $50 Marketbeat. However, even these bulls have mid-$20s targets and caution that a pullback may be overdue ts2.tech. In short, the official word is that Rigetti’s future prospects are promising but the stock is priced for perfection today.
Technical Summary: Most technical services (e.g. Investing.com) still signal “buy” on RGTI because the price is above its major moving averages and momentum is positive Investing Investing. TipRanks likewise calls RGTI a “Buy” on indicators Tipranks. But the recent pullback and extremely high volatility mean traders should beware of sharp swings. The RSI (~63) and other oscillators have cooled off from extreme overbought readings, suggesting the post-peak correction may extend.
Fundamental Outlook: Rigetti’s financials must improve dramatically to justify this stock price. Success hinges on turning prototypes into paying customers. Its government and industry partnerships (with QphoX, Nvidia, etc.) lend credibility, but they remain small deals so far ts2.tech ts2.tech. Most experts emphasize that business execution must catch up to hype ts2.tech ts2.tech. If Rigetti can keep winning contracts and ramp R&D, it could live up to some of this promise; if not, a steep correction seems likely.
Bottom Line: Rigetti is at the center of the 2025 “quantum computing bubble,” with share-price gains that defy conventional fundamentals ts2.tech ts2.tech. In the coming weeks traders will closely watch the Oct. 31 pre-market levels and the Nov. 10 earnings call for signs of real progress. Until then, investors face a classic high-risk/high-reward scenario: a bet on disruptive tech that could either ultimately pay off or disappoint in the short term.
Sources: Stock quotes and charts from StockAnalysis Stockanalysis Stockanalysis; Rigetti press releases Globenewswire Globenewswire; investor news from MarketBeat Marketbeat Marketbeat; analysis and forecasts from TechStock² (ts2.tech) ts2.tech ts2.tech and StockAnalysis.com Stockanalysis; and relevant Reuters reports Reuters Reuters. All data are current as of October 31, 2025.
