Rio Tinto plc Stock Today: New CEO, $10 Billion Asset Sale Plan and Big 2026 Dividends as RIO Trades Near Highs

As of 9 December 2025, Rio Tinto plc (LON: RIO, NYSE: RIO) is back in the market spotlight: a new chief executive has just launched a radical “stronger, sharper and simpler” strategy, the group has upgraded its copper outlook, flagged up to $10 billion in potential divestments, and analysts are pencilling in fatter dividends for 2026 – all while the share price hovers just below its 52‑week highs. ^[1]

Below is a deep dive into the latest share-price action, strategy reset, production guidance, dividend forecasts and analyst views on Rio Tinto stock as of 9 December 2025.

1. Rio Tinto share price snapshot on 9 December 2025

London (LON: RIO)

• Latest close (8 December 2025): 5,476p on the London Stock Exchange, down 0.44% on the day. ^[2]
• 52‑week range: roughly 4,025p to 5,647p, putting the stock close to the top of its one‑year trading band. ^[3]
• 2025 performance: London data providers show mid‑teens percentage gains year‑to‑date, with MarketScreener listing a +16.5% move since 1 January and HL showing strong 3‑ and 6‑month momentum. ^[4]

New York (NYSE: RIO ADR)

• Intraday (9 December, UTC): around $73.02 per ADR, with a day range of $72.88–$73.53.

Sydney (ASX: RIO)

• The Australian line has been trading around A$137–138 in recent sessions, with reports noting the shares “hitting a record high” before easing about 1.5–2%. ^[5]

Valuation and yield

• On fundamental metrics, Rio Tinto trades at roughly 10.9–12.2× current‑year earnings and ~2.3–2.5× sales, according to Hargreaves Lansdown, StocksGuide and MarketScreener. ^[6]
• Dividend yields are quoted in the ~4.7–5.7% range on the London line, depending on provider and forward assumptions. DividendMax has a current yield near 4.7%, while HL points to about 5.66% and MarketScreener’s 2025 yield estimate is just under 5%. ^[7]

So, on 9 December 2025, Rio Tinto looks like a classic “quality cyclical” priced towards the upper half of its recent valuation band: not obviously cheap, but still throwing off a mid‑single‑digit cash yield with leverage to iron ore, copper and the energy transition. TechStock²+1

2. New CEO Simon Trott’s “stronger, sharper, simpler” overhaul

The real story behind RIO’s latest rally is not just commodity prices – it’s governance and strategy.

New leadership at the top

• Simon Trott, formerly head of iron ore, took over as group chief executive in late August 2025, replacing Jakob Stausholm. MarketScreener’s management page records Trott’s CEO appointment from 24 August 2025. ^[8]

Three new core business units

At the 2025 Capital Markets Day on 4 December, Trott and his team unveiled a streamlined structure with three “world class” businesses: ^[9]

1. Iron Ore
2. Copper
3. Aluminium & Lithium

Support businesses such as borates and iron & titanium have been placed under strategic review, with divestments or partnerships firmly on the table. ^[10]

Cost cuts, asset sales and capital discipline

Here’s the high‑level scorecard from the new strategy, based mainly on Rio Tinto’s own Business Wire release plus FT and Reuters reporting: ^[11]

• $650 million of annualised productivity gains already identified within the first three months of the new operating model, with $370m realised and the remainder due by the end of Q1 2026.
• A target to unlock $5–10 billion from the existing asset base via sales, partnerships or changes in ownership across land, infrastructure and non‑core mining and processing assets.
• A planned 4% reduction in unit costs between 2024 and 2030, driven by delayering management, devolving accountability to sites and tightening project scrutiny.
• Mid‑term capex (from 2028 onward) is expected to normalize to under $10 billion per year once major projects such as Oyu Tolgoi underground, Simandou and key lithium developments are completed.
• Decarbonisation capex to 2030 has been slashed from an earlier $5–6 billion estimate to $1–2 billion, in part by relying on third‑party investment in renewable power infrastructure.

Trott has pitched the plan as a way to lift EBITDA by 40–50% by 2030 under long‑run consensus commodity prices, aided by roughly 20% growth in copper‑equivalent production, tighter cost control and better capital allocation. ^[12]

Working around the Chinalco buyback constraint

One quirk in Rio Tinto’s capital story has been its limited ability to execute share buybacks because its biggest shareholder, China’s state‑owned Chinalco, sits near a regulatory cap on ownership.

Reuters recently reported that Trott is “actively working” with Chinalco and regulators on options – including a possible asset‑for‑equity swap – to free up room under the cap and restore flexibility for future buybacks. ^[13]

If Rio Tinto unlocks $5–10 billion from divestments and then regains buyback capacity, that would be an obvious lever for boosting per‑share earnings and dividends. For now, though, it remains an open engineering problem in the corporate‑finance lab.

3. Updated production guidance: copper up, Simandou arrives, iron ore steadies

Rio Tinto’s growth story has historically been iron‑ore‑heavy. Under Trott, copper and lithium get more attention – but iron ore still pays the bills.

Q3 2025 operations: solid across the portfolio

In its Q3 2025 production update, Rio Tinto reported: ^[14]

• Copper‑equivalent production up 9% year‑on‑year, helped by strong volume from several assets.
• Pilbara iron ore shipments: second‑highest Q3 level since 2019, up 6% quarter‑on‑quarter, with production broadly flat.
• IOC (Canada) pellets and concentrate: production up 11% year‑on‑year.
• Bauxite guidance for 2025 upgraded from 59–61 Mt to >61 Mt, thanks to strong performance at Amrun.
• Copper: on track to the top end of the 780–850 kt 2025 guidance range, driven by the ramp‑up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia.

The company also confirmed that first ore from Simandou in Guinea had been loaded onto the new rail infrastructure in October – a symbolic milestone for one of the mining world’s most delayed megaprojects. ^[15]

2025–2026 guidance: copper upgrade, Simandou volumes and iron ore sales

From the Capital Markets Day presentation and Rio Tinto’s official release: ^[16]

• Copper (consolidated)
  • 2025 guidance raised to 860–875 kt (from 780–850 kt), with Oyu Tolgoi a key driver.
  • 2026 guidance set at 800–870 kt, suggesting a modest step‑down after the 2025 surge.
• Iron ore (100% basis)
  • 2026 total iron ore sales expected at 343–366 Mt.
  • Of this, 323–338 Mt from Pilbara, and 5–10 Mt from Simandou, which is expected to deliver its first commercial tonnes to market during 2026.
• Bauxite and aluminium
  • 2025 bauxite: guidance now “>61 Mt”.
  • Aluminium: targeting the upper end of 3.25–3.45 Mt in 2025.

Iron ore market backdrop: steady prices, looming new supply

The timing of Simandou’s arrival is… delicate.

• Iron ore prices in 2025 have hovered in a relatively tight US$96–110/t band, down from the 2021 frenzy but supported by infrastructure spending, tariff rollbacks and speculative restocking. ^[17]
• A detailed AZoMining review describes 2025 as a year of oversupply risk and stagnant Chinese steel demand, with analysts trimming the expected surplus but still cautious as China’s property sector cools. ^[18]
• ING and others note that the Simandou project – in which Rio Tinto is a major partner – could ship around 20 Mt in 2026 and ramp to 120 Mt per year by 2030, significantly altering the global high‑grade supply picture. ^[19]

On the one hand, Simandou’s high‑grade ore and Rio’s blending strategies could strengthen the company’s long‑term competitive position. On the other, additional low‑cost tonnes entering a market with flat demand is exactly the scenario that worries more cautious investors – including the hedge fund we’ll come back to later. ^[20]

4. Lithium: Arcadium assets, Mt Cattlin pause and a tougher capital hurdle

Even as Trott cools the rhetoric around battery metals, Rio Tinto has quietly become a serious lithium player.

Arcadium Lithium acquisition and resource base

On 4 December, Rio Tinto published initial Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve estimates for seven lithium assets acquired via the Arcadium Lithium transaction. ^[21]

The portfolio includes:

• Fenix, Olaroz, Sal de Vida and Cauchari (brine operations and projects in Argentina)
• Whabouchi and Galaxy (hard‑rock spodumene projects in Québec, Canada)
• Mt Cattlin (spodumene mine in Western Australia)

Across these sites, the company now controls substantial lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resources and reserves, e.g.: ^[22]

• Fenix: 11.7 Mt LCE in total Mineral Resources, of which 5.4 Mt LCE are Ore Reserves.
• Olaroz: 19.7 Mt LCE in resources, with 2.7 Mt LCE in reserves.
• Sal de Vida: 7.2 Mt LCE in resources and 2.5 Mt LCE in reserves.

These numbers put Rio firmly in the top tier of global lithium resource holders.

Mt Cattlin on care and maintenance

Not everything is pedal‑to‑the‑metal, though: Mt Cattlin – the Western Australian spodumene mine – was placed on care and maintenance on 1 July 2025 due to weak market conditions, with underground potential still under study. ^[23]

The message is consistent with Trott’s broader stance: lithium remains part of the portfolio, but capital will only flow into projects that compete successfully with copper and iron ore on returns and risk. TechStock²+2The Australian+2

5. Dividend profile and 2026 income outlook

Rio Tinto has been a yield machine for much of the past decade, albeit one powered by volatile commodity prices.

Current dividend run‑rate

• Rio typically pays two ordinary dividends per year (final and interim). ^[24]
• The most recent interim dividend was 148 US cents per share (108.58p), which went ex‑dividend in August and was paid in September 2025. ^[25]
• DividendMax currently shows a 4.7% yield at a London share price of ~£54.76, while MarketScreener estimates a 4.98% yield for 2025 and about 5.3% in 2026. ^[26]
• Stocksguide calculates an average Rio Tinto dividend yield of ~11% over the past 5–10 years, reflecting a mix of ordinary and special payouts during boom years, with a recent payout ratio around 58–68% of earnings. ^[27]

Rio’s official policy – reaffirmed at the Capital Markets Day – is to return 40–60% of underlying earnings to shareholders through the cycle, primarily in the form of ordinary dividends. ^[28]

2026 dividend forecast: UBS goes big

A widely‑circulated DiscoveryAlert note, citing UBS analysis, paints a punchy picture for 2026: ^[29]

• Forecast 2026 dividend per share: US$5.15, up 29.7% from a projected US$3.97 in 2025.
• Implied payout ratio: ~64% of forecast FY26 earnings – still within (if at the top of) Rio’s stated 40–60% range.
• For Australian investors, the note estimates an 8.5% grossed‑up yield (including franking credits) on a hypothetical A$10,000 investment, or ~A$850 of annual income.

These forecasts assume: iron ore prices around US$109/t for much of 2026 before normalising closer to US$90/t; a successful ramp‑up of Simandou; and strong copper prices as electrification and renewable build‑out continue. ^[30]

Of course, the dividend is highly commodities‑sensitive. DiscoveryAlert itself warns that a serious drop in iron ore prices could lead to 50–70% cuts in mining dividends, as seen in prior downturns. ^[31]

6. Analyst ratings and price targets for Rio Tinto stock

Analyst sentiment on Rio Tinto in early December 2025 is generally constructive but not euphoric. Think “solid buy, modest upside” rather than “unloved deep value”.

London‑listed RIO (LON: RIO)

• Investing.com aggregates views from 20 analysts and finds a “Buy” consensus, with 11 buys, 9 holds and no sells. The average 12‑month price target is about 5,784p, with a high near 7,605p and a low around 4,410p – implying roughly 6% upside from current levels. ^[32]
• MarketScreener similarly labels Rio an “Outperform”, with 20 analysts contributing and an average target equivalent to roughly US$77 per ADR, implying ~5% upside vs recent US prices. ^[33]

New York ADR (NYSE: RIO)

• On Investing.com, the ADR has a “Buy” consensus from 6 analysts, with an average target of about US$78.7, high of US$101 and low of US$67 – about 8% upside from the ~$73 spot price. ^[34]
• TipRanks shows a “Moderate Buy” based on a smaller sample (3 analysts) with an average target of US$88.33, implying nearly 20% upside vs the early‑December close of around US$73.7. ^[35]

Several research notes highlighted by Seeking Alpha stress that Rio offers “stable Q3 operations, strong margins, around 5% yield and ~11× P/E”, with improved risk‑reward relative to earlier in the cycle – but not a screaming bargain given the stock’s run.

Recent broker and media commentary

• A TechStock² analysis on 3 December noted that Rio is trading near 52‑week highs across London, New York and Sydney, on around 11–12× earnings and ~2.2× sales, and highlighted a JPMorgan target hike on the London line from 6,100p to 6,950p, reaffirming a Buy rating.
• The same piece points out that many quantitative screens now classify Rio as a quality cyclical trading near the rich end of its historical valuation range, not a deep‑value turnaround.

7. Institutional positioning: buyers, sellers and hedge fund worries

Institutional investors are far from unanimous, which is exactly what makes markets interesting.

Big long‑only holders adding

According to disclosures summarised in TechStock²’s overview:

• American Century Companies increased its NYSE‑listed RIO stake by about 14.4% in Q2 2025 to ~320,000 shares (~US$18.7m at the time).
• Fisher Asset Management owns roughly 18.6 million shares, around 1.5% of Rio Tinto and 1.4% of Fisher’s portfolio, having added more than 240,000 shares recently.

That’s the “we like the story” camp.

A hedge fund walks away

On the other side, SCCM Enhanced Equity Income Fund has sold its Rio Tinto position, explaining in a Q3 2025 investor letter (quoted by InsiderMonkey):

• They see “strong long‑term growth potential” given Rio’s scale in iron ore, aluminium and copper, but
• They worry about a “potential state of global oversupply of iron ore” in coming years; and
• They note that over half of Rio’s revenue is linked to China, where property‑related steel demand remains under pressure.

InsiderMonkey also notes that 37 hedge fund portfolios held Rio Tinto at the end of Q3 2025, up from 31 previously, indicating that overall hedge fund ownership remains healthy even as some managers rotate out.

8. Key opportunities and risks for Rio Tinto shareholders

What could go right?

1. Cost savings and portfolio simplification
   If Trott delivers the planned 4% cost reduction and successfully recycles $5–10bn from non‑core assets into either shareholder returns or high‑return growth projects, Rio’s earnings leverage could be substantial even with flat commodity prices.
2. Copper growth and energy‑transition exposure
   Rio now aims for 1 Mt of copper per year by 2030, up from upgraded 2025 guidance of 860–875 kt. With copper widely seen as a long‑term bottleneck for electrification and renewable energy, Oyu Tolgoi and other projects could justify higher medium‑term valuations if execution is smooth.
3. High‑grade iron ore advantage
   Simandou’s high‑grade ore, combined with Pilbara’s scale, positions Rio to supply steelmakers as they decarbonise and seek higher‑grade feedstock for more efficient processes.
4. Dividend plus potential buybacks
   With a 40–60% payout policy, low gearing and strong cash generation, Rio can continue paying sizable ordinary dividends – and might add buybacks if the Chinalco constraint is solved and surplus capital is freed from asset sales.

What could go wrong?

1. Iron ore oversupply and China risk
   The bear case is simple: if Chinese steel demand weakens further while Simandou and other projects push more supply into the seaborne market, iron ore prices could drift down towards or below cost‑support levels, compressing margins and dividends.
2. Project execution and political risk
   • Simandou is in Guinea, where political volatility and resource nationalism are non‑trivial.
   • Oyu Tolgoi is in Mongolia, with ongoing debates over licence transfers and mine plans.
     Delays or disputes at either asset could dent the 2030 growth story.
3. Lithium market swings
   The decision to mothball Mt Cattlin shows how fast lithium economics can turn. If Rio cuts too aggressively, it risks under‑participating in the next up‑cycle; if it invests too heavily, it could be caught in another oversupply phase.
4. ESG and social licence to operate
   Rio is still dealing with the reputational fallout from past mis‑steps (notably Juukan Gorge). New agreements with Indigenous groups in Western Australia, such as an updated Native Title deal with the Karlka Nyiyaparli Aboriginal Corporation, are positive, but ESG risk remains a material factor for long‑term valuation.
5. Valuation stretch
   Several valuation screens highlight that Rio now trades near multi‑year highs on P/E, P/S and P/B versus its own history and some peers, meaning a lot of good news is already reflected in the price.

9. Bottom line: how RIO looks on 9 December 2025

On 9 December 2025, Rio Tinto plc looks like:

• A global mining major near its 52‑week highs, supported by robust Q3 production and upgraded guidance in copper, bauxite and aluminium.
• A company in the middle of a significant strategic reset under a new CEO, with clear targets for cost cuts, asset sales and more disciplined capital allocation.
• An income stock with a roughly 5% trailing dividend yield and bullish external forecasts pointing to potentially higher payouts in 2026 – assuming iron ore and copper cooperate.
• A name that most analysts rate Buy/Outperform, with modest average upside in the 5–10% range over 12 months, and a wider range of outcomes depending on how the iron ore cycle, China and project execution play out.

For investors, RIO at today’s levels looks less like a secret bargain and more like a high‑quality, high‑beta income play on global steel demand and the energy transition. Anyone considering it still needs to be comfortable with commodity cycles, China exposure and the possibility that iron ore’s next big move is down rather than up.

References

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