London, Feb 5, 2026, 08:40 GMT — Regular session
- Rio Tinto shares fell 1.3% in early London trading as merger doubts resurfaced
- The deadline for any Glencore takeover bid in the UK expires later on Thursday
- Commodity prices slipped overnight, piling more pressure on miners
Shares of Rio Tinto plc dropped 1.3% to 6,916 pence in early London trading Thursday, as investors held back ahead of an update on merger discussions with Glencore and digested weaker commodity prices. (Investing)
The deadline is clear. Rio must declare a firm intention to bid for Glencore, rule out a bid, or ask the UK Takeover Panel for more time by 5 p.m. London time on Feb. 5. (Rio Tinto)
Three sources close to the discussions told Reuters that Rio is likely to seek more time but might pull out if shareholder resistance grows stronger. Hugh Dive of Atlas Funds, a Rio shareholder opposed to the deal, said, “We expect an extension later this week as a face-saving device.” (Reuters)
The Financial Times reported Wednesday that Rio is pushing to keep both the chair and CEO positions in a merged company, while Glencore demands a substantial premium. This highlights the significant gap between the two on governance and valuation. (Reuters)
Mining stocks followed a wider slide in raw materials prices overnight. Iron ore dropped 2% amid high inventories, according to Reuters, while copper eased lower as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors stepped back from risk. “We saw extreme volatility in precious metals and other commodities this week, and what we are witnessing today are some aftershocks,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore said. (Reuters)
Glencore shares dropped 1.1% to roughly 505.7 pence, leaving both stocks shadowed by the same headline. (Investing)
Rio’s stock has been volatile this week, slipping 0.5% on Wednesday after jumping 3.5% the previous day, per Investing.com historical data. (Investing)
Deal math is getting more complicated. Glencore is negotiating to offload a 40% stake in its copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The U.S.-backed consortium deal would value the assets at roughly $9 billion, debt included, according to Reuters. (Reuters)
The downside is clear: negotiations stall, the panel rejects an extension, or Rio’s investors push back if the premium seems too high for early-stage projects. Even a finalized deal could face hurdles—regulatory reviews and calls for asset sales might limit gains, particularly with copper and iron ore prices fluctuating.
Rio investors have marked another key date after today’s deadline: the 2025 annual results, set for Feb. 19. The company’s investor calendar indicates CEO Simon Trott and CFO Peter Cunningham will lead the presentation. (Rio Tinto)
All eyes now turn to a statement from Rio and Glencore before Thursday’s 5 p.m. London deadline — or news that the Takeover Panel has extended the timeline. After that, attention moves swiftly to Feb. 19, when guidance on copper, iron ore, and capital returns is expected.
